Doctor StrangeGlove – Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love The (potential) Move

Joe Frisaro recently stated that Fredi Gonzalez has begun considering batting Emilio Bonifacio 9th in what has been widely acknowledged as a disappointing 2009 campaign.  Brought in as a result of the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham trade, Bonifacio was to satisfy the front office’s desire to insert speed and defense into the lineup.  Unfortunately for the ballclub, Bonifacio has proven highly incapable in a starting capacity, reaffirming many analysts beliefs that he be better suited as a ultility/bench player.

However, in recent weeks, and a series against Tony La Russa, Fredi Gonzalez has allegedly begun to consider a move that made headlines when the Brewers considered the same  move with Jason Kendall last season.  This is a move that draws interest from most fans because the typical National League lineup slots the pitcher in the 9th spot, typically giving him the fewest at bats, which is logical for a batter that should be the worst hitter in a lineup on a given night.  However, this move makes sense in many regards and could prove to be beneficial until a change is made in the lineup, such as having prospect Gaby Sanchez, recently off the DL, called up to the Major League roster.

So, here’s why the move makes sense from a logic standpoint:  While the pitcher may be the least effective offensive “force” in the lineup, and therefore should garner the fewest at bats, the pitcher is often pinch-hit for, therefore skewing the numbers.  For example, Marlins pitchers this year have an On-Base Percentage of .129 and a Slugging Percentage of .118, obviously both of these are quite terrible.  However, the 9th spot (which includes pinch-hitters) puts up a .226/.205 line, weighted predominantly by the pitchers’ lines.

Now, using Baseball Musing’s Lineup Analysis tool, we can compare the expected Runs/Game that certain lineups would produce, given certain OBP/SLG rates.  For the OBP/SLG rates, I’ll use the respective players’ OPS on the season thus far, so obviously there can be fluctuations of certain players dramatically improving or regressing.  That being said, we can start with our current lineup and see how that would perform.

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Under the lineup of: Chris Coghlan, Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Cody Ross, John Baker and the Pitcher, the Marlins are projected to score roughly 4.5 runs a game over the course of a 162 game season.

Now, the lineup has the obvious benefit of what has been a strong OBP presence from rookie Chris Coghlan, but is immediately followed by a woeful .291 OBP, which is an obvious weakness to present before the heart of the order.  The cleanup spot is manned by Jorge Cantu and his low OBP but solid SLG, which is a solid spot for that combination.

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Just for kicks, the “worst” lineup we could field would be:  The pitcher, Bonifacio, Jorge Cantu, Chris Coghlan, Dan Uggla, Hermida, Baker, Ramirez, Ross.  This lineup would net about 4.19 runs/game

Obvious weaknesses include having the two worst OBP presences receiving the most at-bats.  Chris Coghlan’s rather pedestrian SLG gets put in the cleanup spot, humorously, and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins’ best hitter gets the honor of having the second fewest at-bats, followed by Ross’s weak OBP to “aid” in turning the lineup over.  If you ever see this lineup announced, please alert the authorities as it would be obvious that some Phillies/Mets/Braves fan has to be extorting Fredi Gonzalez.

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And now for the “La Russa” method, and what Frisaro had broken in his blog.  A lineup of: Chris Coghlan, Hanley Ramirez, John Baker, Cody Ross, Jeremy Hermida, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, the Pitcher and then Emilio Bonifacio would net a total of about 4.795 runs/game.  This is .2 runs/game better than the current lineup and over .5 runs/game better than the worst alternative.

Now, what makes this lineup work is what’s most interesting.  The top of the order is made interesting by having our best hitter bat second, but it’s also because of his incredible OBP ability.  The lineup is heavily weighted towards OBP at the top, loading the bases up for our team’s best sluggers in Ross, Cantu, and Uggla, and by using the OBP skills of Hermida/Uggla to generate second “top of the lineup” which is important given the nature of lineup turnover mid-game.  By putting Emilio Bonifacio 9th, he becomes a pseduo-second leadoff guy, which keeps Hanley Ramirez in an equally “pseudo-” 3 spot.  And, as an unforeseen silver lining, in the case of an inevitable pinch-hitter, there will be a higher leverage situation more often than that the conventional lineup would present.

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However, the “proposed” lineup sits somewhere in the middle, in terms of order, as: Chris Coghlan, John Baker, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida,  Cody Ross, Pitcher, Bonifacio would net roughly 4.7 runs/game, making it surprisingly close to ideal.

This is the likely scenario with very solid results.  Now, it’s not likely that Fredi would sit down in front of a computer and crunch the numbers to break out a lineup, and admittedly, the difference between the currently proposed lineup and the “ideal” lineup isn’t much, the biggest move would be moving Bonifacio to the 9th spot, thereby creating more RBI opportunities at the top of the lineup and creating more offense on the lineup turning over.

Marlins A Quarter In: Rambled Frustrated Questions

View From Stands:

The Marlins are just about a quarter into the season and, on this date, it is far less clear about what our Marlins will do this year than it was on Opening Day. We started with a performance that hasn’t been matched by any team so far this season as the Marlins looked like an unstoppable force that could pace itself to an historic season. Since then, they have played about as bad as the worse teams in the game this year. We have heard from the team (and would like to believe) that, talent-wise, they are somewhere in between the 2 contrasting performances, but for what is now the majority of this season, our Marlins have played terrible. Due to the contrasting performances in a short period of time, questions arise. Why were they so good and why have they played so bad since? We can only look at the parts and hope we find answers, but may find more questions.

The Pitching:
At the beginning, our pitching was doing very well and, even during the times of struggle in certain starts or relief outings, the pitching did enough to win. Since then, it has been quite a bit more erratic and there have been a number of games in which the team seemed to never have a chance with some of the big innings that have been allowed. Even in games that we have led in, and appeared to be on track, it seems that, at some point, our pitching is destined to give the lead back, no matter what. At some point, it seems that one of the pitchers will find a way to start falling behind batters before he gives up the big bomb. Why is this happening? We have a lot of talent that has other teams salivating. We have a highly respected pitching coach. Why can’t we get a complete performance from every corner of our pitching staff? Why does it seem that when our fish have a lead, a pitcher (starter or reliever) pitches like he’s trying to avoid giving up hits instead of hitting his spots as he goes after the batters and stays ahead rather than waiting until the 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 count to throw a “get me over” strike that is absolutely destroyed by Major League hitters? Why is this happening? What is going wrong? Where lies the fault in all of this?

The Hitting:
At the beginning, our hitting was on a roll and clicking on all cylinders. We were the offense that came in and ripped your pitcher apart with our speed, power, and everything else we could think of. Oh, and we’d throw in the kitchen sink too. Since then, we seem to resemble the same 1-dimensional team that we wanted to stop being. We are back to striking out routinely, offensively faltering and failing at key moments of the game, and it seems that everyone is back to trying to lift or pull the ball over the fence. It even seems that some of the guys brought in for speed (Cameron Maybin before his demotion and Emilio Bonifacio) have also gotten into the mode of lifting the ball for routine flyouts being mixed in with the strikeouts. This has got to make many members of our fan base yell out the loudest “WHY!” Why is it that when we are ahead or trail by a run or 2 and have an opportunity for a good to great inning, our hitters try to pull and lift a pitch that is on the outside corner only to get the expected result of either striking out or popping the ball up in the infield or shallow outfield? Why can’t we utilize the offense that was intended when the team speed was increased? Why must our pitchers be under the pressure to pitch spectacular because the offense fizzles in rally opportunities? Why is this happening? What is going wrong? Where lies the fault in all of this?

These are the 2 parts of the player aspect of this team, but let’s ask about the other team members in that dugout that don‘t play the game.

The Manager:
Now, I won’t be another one of the many Fredi bashers because I believe he, like any other manager, has his good points and his bad points. Where on one hand, he does have a tendency to depend too much on certain players to succeed in positions that they routinely fail in, but, on the other hand, he is the same guy that established a tone of professionalism with this team and was a Manager of the Year Award candidate last year. However, no matter what side of the fence a fan stands on, we all have to admit that his critics in the Marlins fan base have been well fed over the last few weeks. Again, I won’t go into bashing Fredi Gonzalez, but will offer the thought or concept that relates to Fredi and the Marlins. Usually when an organization has built a young team and has brought in a young, inexperienced manager in about the same time, they grow together through a mostly trial and error phase. Almost every time, by the time the team is ready to make a leap toward another level (playoff or championship caliber), that young manager is no longer present. The reason is that, at some point, the case usually is that the team has progressed pass the point of where they can be lead by a manager who is still gaining experience and the team is ready for the manager that can guide the players toward their next goal without the trial and errors. This applies directly to the Marlins where they are now or will be in the near future. Most people that look at the Marlins roster feel that they are a playoff caliber team this year. The question is whether they can get to that next level as soon as they’re capable of if they continue to be lead by a manager that’s still learning. If this has not been thought about yet, it definitely needs to be considered in the near future if the Front Office feels that they have a playoff caliber roster. Again, I’m not bashing Fredi Gonzalez, but pointing out the reality of the game.

The Coaching Staff:
With the pitching, we know that Mark Wiley has been successful and most baseball people and Marlins fans are comfortable with him handling the pitching staff. It just fills a person with wonder as to how long will pitchers be permitted to pitch like minor leaguers lacking confidence and fearful of throwing strikes before some accountability is held somewhere. At some point we need to ask, why are our pitchers falling behind batters at the worst moments that they can and why is nothing being done to change it?

With our 1st base and 3rd base coaches (Bo Porter and Andy Fox), there are concerns that need to be raised. The fact is that our Marlins have looked absolutely ridiculous with the Little League caliber baserunning mistakes that have occurred this season and prior to this year. Why are the Marlins taking themselves out of innings with getting picked off or getting thrown out while trying to take an extra base that any 10 year old could figure out was a bad idea? How many more baserunning blunders are Marlins fans going to have to endure before we see someone be held accountable other than the rookie who wasn’t the only player to make a mistake while on base? How long do parents of Little Leaguers need to tell their children to not run the bases like the Marlins do before we become a model of competent baserunning?

Finally, we can return to our hitting and turn towards Batting Coach, Jim Presley. The failures don’t need to be repeated again in this paragraph because my brief description in the hitting section of this article was enough. I will just point out something that raises all sorts of concern and red flags about what we’re seeing the Marlins do in their seemingly endless quest to remain as a 1-dimensional offense that strikes out a ton as they swing for the fences. Let me just clarify that I’m not here to bash Jim Presley either because he has done a very good job with this offense. I’m just pointing out something that has me concerned. For many older baseball fans like myself, they can remember seeing Presley as a player and can see similarities in some of the trends with the Marlins hitting that were present in Presley’s pull-the-ball approach and his results as a hitter in his career. In Presley’s career, per 500+ at-bats (approximate full season), he averaged just under 20 Hrs – about 71 RBI – about 122 strikeouts – and a .247 batting average (baseball-reference.com). Again, this is not to bash Jim Presley, but to point out a similarity that raises a concern when looking at the approach and results of the Marlins hitters, especially when looking at Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, and Jeremy Hermida. It has been really disturbing (as stated before) to see this seem to also rub off onto Bonifacio and Maybin. Again, Presley has done a good job, but he may need someone to help him that is a good compliment to his style since what we have seen with this limited offense may be all that Presley knows. At which point can we ask why are we getting the same picture when we’re changing the pieces to the puzzle?

Overall, for the most part, this season has been painful to watch. We can only ask: Will it change? Why is this happening? What is going wrong? Where lies the fault in all of this?

This is a frustrated view from the stands.

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