Discussion in 'Miami Marlins' started by Wild Card, Oct 30, 2013.
3.819 from each side cause he's entering his prime.
You guys are really mean
Those projections are high for the first three, especially Dietrich.
I could see Navarro and Dietrich hitting at that level but I think it's a little high for Ozuna. It would be hard for him to hit at that level with no time in Double A.
I never understood why people are so high on Dietrich.
I think he has good potential. Great power for a second baseman. He had an ISO of .191 which ranks 3rd for 2nd baseman. Produced well in the minor leagues. Actually had a good walk rate in Double A this season which was a major question mark about him. I don't think he plays well on defense, though. That's something he has to over come.
He has above average power for a second baseman but very little else. The walk rate in AA this season is likely an anomaly if you consider his career numbers. He didn't walk for s*** in his stretch in MLB this past season, either.
I don't see much to get excited about.
His walk rate in his minor league career was 7%. Take away his year this season, and it's at 6.2 % League average for a second baseman. last season was about 7.3%. He didn't do well this season as a rookie but he can hover around 7% as a player. He'll strike out a lot but his power is a big deal and makes up for that. He ranked third out of 49 second baseman with at least 230 PAs last season in ISO. That's better than above average.
There's also the fact that he produced very well in the minor leagues. He's had the time he needed.
And as I've mentioned before, Perry Hill loves him at second base. I didn't see anything to be upset about defensively, I don't know why people seem to think he's bad over there.
Dietrich has a ton of power, should be a 20+ homer guy over 600 plate appearances even at Marlins Park. The hope would be that he can get on base a bit more than he did in the major leagues, which I think will happen. Sometimes it doesn't happen immediately, let him adjust, give him a little time. I think the average and OBP can creep up. I don't see how a .780 OPS is a stretch for him, I think he can def slug .450 and post an OBP of .330. That might be optimistic, but that's because I liked what I saw.
I think Ozuna can absolutely post a .750 OPS next season. His problem seemed to be discipline as the season went on, so I don't see him having a very high OBP. HOWEVER, one thing that was absent from his bat in the majors was that big power he has, and that is going to come eventually... You don't hit 20+ homers every year for 3 years in the minors and then hit 5 in the majors. Power generally translates from the minors to the majors, it's the other areas you usually worry about. Just wait and it will come.
First of all, a 6.2% walk rate is pretty bad for a MLB second baseman; it's well below the median for qualified 2B in 2013. You also can't count him to even put that up in MLB when he faces higher quality pitching. His plate discipline is one of his weaknesses, not strong points.
As I've said already, he's got power for a second baseman but not much else. Not a very exciting player.
Based on what? You always say these things but you never have anything to support it. It's just "hope" and wishful thinking.
Every single time you and I get into an argument I have stats to support my opinion. You simply choose to ignore whatever stats support my argument. Literally, everytime.
He has actually been a model of consistency since being drafted, and he has ALWAYS been a bat-first prospect. In 1,556 MiLB plate appearances: .277/.348./476/.824. And his best season was this year, not a distant memory. The encouraging part about his season was how he killed in in Jax, came up and did well, got into a slump, went back to Jax and killed it again. He ended up with almost a .900 OPS in Double-A this year and between the majors/minors hit 20 homers in less than 500 PA.
I don't know why this is news to you, he was supposed to be a good hitter.
You still haven't provide any statistical argument. You just linked to his profile and provided no explanation.
And you still haven't learned that minor league numbers don't directly correspond to what he's likely to do in MLB, especially after only a little more than 200 PAs? The extent of your justification here is that he's put up a .824 OPS in the minors, so he must be able to hit decently in the majors. That's dumb thinking. It's like you don't even know what peripheral data is or how to apply it.
You do understand that's usually a pretty easy conclusion to come to, right? I'm not saying he's going to post nearly a .900 OPS in the majors like he did in double-A, but he came up to the majors and hit well before he hit a slump. He has hit at every level of the game. He has displayed power at every level of baseball.
How about this, instead of me proving to you why he will hit, why don't you prove why he won't?
There is a great differential between minor league pitching and major league pitching. He had a .715 OPS in May (when he got called up), which isn't hitting "well." While he showed power in the minors, he showed no plate discipline. His minor league performance shows him to be a one-dimensional player, which is what I expect him to be in the majors.
And I have already statistically showed this by pointing out his poor walk rate.
The average walk rate for a second baseman in 2013 was 7.3. His MILB walk rate is just one percent lower. I see no reason why he can't put up a similar walk rate.
You're really just telling me the same thing over again but your argument is weak. He has a high K rate but the power is there. I don't see why he isn't a player to be excited over offensively.
The fact that Dietrich could possibly have the second most power on the current roster (close call with Morrison), tells you quite a bit about the Marlins' state right now.
Averages don't really tell you much of anything in terms of how a player stacks up against the rest of the league. That's what medians are for. Nobody who knows anything about statistics would tell you that a 7% walk rate is decent for a second baseman.
Also, I find it highly improbable that Dietrich is even capable of a 7% walk rate in MLB based upon his minor league numbers.
I don't see why the argument is weak. His walk rate is pretty bad and has been over almost all of his career.
I have to side with you about Dietrich.