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Marlins GM Dan Jennings: Stanton Will Not Be Traded

Discussion in 'Miami Marlins' started by CanesCop86, Nov 3, 2013.

  1. Backin2008

    Backin2008 Backin2008

    The Rays would never deal David Price straight up for Stanton. In fact, it looks like the Rays might keep Price and try to win the World Series in 2014.
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2014
  2. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    Those are two different issues, and they absolutely would in a vacuum. Stanton is more valuable.
    Backin2008 likes this.
  3. Backin2008

    Backin2008 Backin2008

    Stanton is worth more to the Marlins than he would be to the Rays right now. You might be right down the road, but Price is already one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Stanton is still growing into the hitter he's going to be.
  4. Larry

    Larry The Head Fish .

    EricWiener and SilverBullet1929 like this.
  5. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    in terms of a timetable "the sooner the better".

    I think any point over the past 2 years would've been sooner. We're already at later.
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2014
    dim likes this.
  6. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    Stanton is worth more than Price to any franchise in baseball, period. Also, Stanton's best year is already better than Price's best year, so saying he is growing into what he will become only proves that more. Stanton is a top 10 most valuable property in baseball right now to me. Somewhere 6-10 to be precise. I would only definitively put Trout, Harper, McCutchen, Jose Fernandez, and Miggy (because he's just going to rake forever, age/contract be damned) ahead of him and put him in a toss up with Machado, Posey, Longoria, and Yadier as the next 5. Maybe Kershaw should go in there even with the massive contract because he is just absolutely spectacular, but that is a lot of money and he has a lot of innings on the arm. There isn't much else to compare Stanton to throughout the game. He projects to be better than Goldschmidt and Puig and the money going forward (as of today) isn't that different. Tulo has an enormous contract and gets hurt. Cano is older and has the massive deal. Sale, Strausburg, Bumgarner, Price, and guys like Gerrit Cole (i.e. the young aces) are great but it's hard to argue a pitcher against the likely top power option in baseball the next 7-8 seasons. Guys like Segura/Simmons/Profar/Boegarts despite their middle infieldness, don't get above Stanton and have a lot to prove so can't put them over him. Other veterans like Wright and Pedroia have big contracts and Stanton has more potential at the end of the day. That's it. That's the list.

    It just is what it is. Stanton is a franchise player for close to the next decade and can count on your hands the guys you would take over him. How they didn't identify this to build around him 1-2 years ago is insane, and thankfully we all agree to that and can chalk this up to "Loria."

    How a guy mandates a front office to pay John Buck, Heath Bell, Greg Dobbs, and trade for Carlos Lee, and then ignore Stanton is mind boggling.
    mystikol87 and pollyvonwog like this.
  7. Backin2008

    Backin2008 Backin2008

    David Price won the A.L. Cy Young Award in 2012 didn't he? Stanton has not had a better year than that so far. You're basing your argument only on money and not performance.
  8. ArtisticHate

    ArtisticHate Libraries gave us power...

    He did throw in a performance comparison in addition to other factors:
    While this board has debated the true meaning of WAR many times, it is certainly a viable way for someone to compare the performances of a pitcher vs. a hitter and others.
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2014
    MarlinsLou likes this.
  9. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    No, see above. WAR isn't perfect, but it's the best out there at an attempt at explaining value. Not that this is a real debate either, but BR has valued Price higher than fan graphs (and Stanton higher in fan graphs. I typically defer to fan graphs calculations), so at worst we're looking at very comparable commodities judged across the board by comparable sources. If we're pushing performance, throw in Stanton's age, contract, and that he is a hitter, and still not close. Rays would do it in a heartbeat and kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

    Also, probably shouldn't make your bed on something based on sports writers opinions. These are the same people that just kept Piazza and Biggio out of the hall of fame and didn't unanimously vote for a top 10 pitcher of all time in Maddux. Price is awesome for a lot of different reasons. Winning a cy young is a blip on that radar based on how that vote is made. Idiots vote for the cy young. Literally. LeBatard is the best for giving that vote to deadspin readers (who nailed it).

    End of the day so this doesn't further spiral out of control, they should have signed him already, if they want maximum trade value they need to trade him sooner than later, and since they haven't signed him, Loria is a douche and keeps running the franchise into the ground.
  10. Backin2008

    Backin2008 Backin2008

    If the Marlins deal Stanton before his arbitration years are over, then the Marlins will be in a never ending rebuilding project. I can't believe you are giving LeBatard any props. He doesn't know anything about sports. Here is a guy that said in 2003 that Kevin Millar was better than Ivan Rodriguez. He is good at stirring things up and that's about it. As far as the Hall of Fame vote, I agree about Biggio....he should already be in. But, a lot of guys in the know said that Piazza isn't in because of the whispers of steroid use as his back is full of acne. Piazza belongs in if he played fair, as he is the best offensive catcher ever.
  11. Backin2008

    Backin2008 Backin2008

    The whole Stanton/Price thing doesn't really matter anyway because they would never get traded for each other. That would mean that Loria would have to open the checkbook and he already did that for Ty Wigginton.
  12. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    To try and quantify how much they suck, Stanton's comparables. Here is how much money these guys have made or are going to make with their first contract.

    Adam Jones is making 11/$96 (he signed this after arb 2…which was lower value than Stanton's arb 1)
    Carlos Gonzalez is making 9/$82.5 (this is the best comp for his service time/time of signing)
    Andrew McCutchen is making 9/$67.5 (including his 9th year option, this would be 2nd best comp)
    Justin Upton is making 8/$53 (then is a free agent)
    Jay Bruce is making 9/$52.5, and they hold an option for $13 million after that (10/$65.5)

    All of these guys but Jones were signed before they got to arbitration. The best comp here is Cargo, whom the Marlins could have absolutely given that same deal to Stanton 12-24 months ago and he would be signed through 2019 right now.

    But since they didn't do that, Stanton has been paid $6.5 million, and has a realistic shot at getting to free agency sooner in his prime (i.e. a big payday), the Marlins are probably looking at a best case scenario of getting 2 or 3 free agent years at hardly a discount. I think Stanton would seriously entertain a 4/$75 or 5/$100 extension (10-15-25-25-(25)) sort of thing. That would be enough money to "risk" 2-3 years of free agency and get "real" money to be completely set for life versus going hells bells through arbitration next few years and waiting for the big check to come in. We all know he wants to go to California, but if he can cash in now for a limited time period and still be a free agent in his prime, its just worth it financially to him versus getting injured one of the next 3 years.

    Saying that, that would put Stanton at around 8/$83 or 9/$108. Feel free to give or take $5 mil overall on either of those deals if we want a margin of error.

    Considering the Cargo deal which is really dead on what he should be given, and the other comps, the Marlins have very likely made a $20-30 million dollar mistake on not buying out Stanton a year ago based on what they could do now if they so choose. Simply fantastic stuff.
  13. Backin2008

    Backin2008 Backin2008

    The Marlins should use the Cleveland Indians' model prior to moving into Jacobs Field. They locked up all of their young players that they knew were can't miss players like Thome, Belle, Lofton and Ramirez. The Marlins should have made that bet with Stanton and they should also try to sign Fernandez to a big deal right now.
  14. Yeah but if the Fish use the Indians' model then they'll end up losing the World Series to the Marlins a couple years later.
  15. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    They can wait next offseason for Fernandez. It's pretty common to do things after 2 years of service time. I won't be insulted if they don't go all in on Fernandez right now. Plus, the price can only go down as it's not like he will be better (right?…...). I will be insulted next offseason if they don't do it though (and don't think the price changes much even if he goes all King Felix on everyone). We'll be right back to the Stanton problem at that point. Saying that, I would do it right now because I 100% believe in him (and find it hard to believe anyone would think otherwise. He's not a guy like Wade Miley or Corbin I need to see it again to really believe in).

    Giants gave Bumgarner a 5/$35 extension (covers 1 free agency year), and includes two options on the back for $12 million each (he'd be around 9/$59 for first 9 years of service time). Fernandez was insane last year and would comp higher, so I think it would be realistic to sign him right now for something like 6/$42 (1 free agency year) with two club options on back for around $15 mil each (that would create an 8/$57ish or 9/$72ish scenario). That would put him healthily above Bumgarner and he hits free agency in prime 27-29 for a major potential payday. Good move across the board for everyone. What a PR story for the Marlins if they could lock him down for the next 8 seasons at 1/3rd what Kershaw is getting for 7.
  16. FutureGM

    FutureGM All Star

    I will be floored if Stanton signed an extension before ST at this point. It was more likely to happen before the arb deadline, but that's past now.
  17. dim

    dim President of the Robert Andino Fan Club.

    Change Jennings to Beinfest and Stanton to Cabrera and this could've been a post from 2007.
  18. FutureGM

    FutureGM All Star

    Pretty much. Although I think there's a greater chance of them actually offering money to Stanton. I don't think they even made the effort of offering Cabrera a contract.
  19. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    so Freeman just got an 8 year 135m extension, and he's pretty close to Stanton in comparison as far as age & service time. So little under 17 per, for 3 arby years & 5 of FA.


    That does jibe pretty well with Lou's suggestion of something like 5/100 for Stanton at this point.

    Juan Rodriguez wrote an article on it today with something something hitting with RISP.
    Implications of Freeman contract on Stanton & Marlins
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2014
  20. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    Juan is the worst - "Statistically, the two players are similar." Oh yea? Stanton has nearly double career WAR in a dozen or so more games. Could not be more wrong. Stanton slots significantly higher than him offensively with the power top end, and defensively as Freeman is below average and Stanton is not. Stanton would demand at least $175 for an 8 year, and thats ignoring if he would sign that long in Miami.

    They really need to aggressively sign him for 4-5 years. It's all they'd get at this point because of looming free agency and he has a few bucks. Stanton can't do anything to knock him out of becoming a free agent before 30, i.e. may not get the uber mega 8+ year deal in free agency. Marlins need to balance that and get the years they can. 4-5 years, $70-100 mil. Somewhere in there is a deal he would take to secure his financial future forever but not severely limit his overall financial potential and desire to play in California second half of career.

    If I was the Marlins, I'd offer 5/$93.5 extension so at minimum, they have Stanton and Fernandez together for 5 years. They have so much cheap talent coming, it wouldn't be a drastic hit. I think he'd take it. A 24 year old kid with $4 million bucks (post taxes, agent fee, etc) is not turning down a guaranteed extra $90(pre tax), because in 3 seasons he may be able to get a larger guarantee and would still be a free agent in middle of prime. Not happening.

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