Discussion in 'Miami Marlins' started by Hotcorner, Dec 24, 2013.
I expect Christian Yelich to have a great full season and become a star.
Jose Fernandez. A surprisingly disappointing season.
Yeah. His ERA will be like 2.50. f***ing scrub. First round bust.
Yelich: .288, 17 HR, 80 RBI, 20 SB
In all seriousness, I would expect a bit of a downturn for him. Always hope for the best, but would not be surprised at all to see a bit of a sophomore slump.
His peripherals were fantastic and he only got stronger as the season progressed. If anything I think he has a good shot of improving last years #s if he could get the BB rate down some (marlins park will keep that HR# super low). I would be pretty surprised if he has any sort of significant regression/slump. I expect low/mid 2s era from him and similar if not improved peripherals. In other words, he will have another ace-like season barring injury or something like that.
If Jose stays healthy, he'll be fine. He won't slump.
The guy just spent a year that normally would have been spent getting minor league experience at the MLB level.
And what happened? He mowed 'em down. He doesn't give a crap about "reversion to the mean" or "sophomore slumps." He's incredibly talented, knows what he's doing and wants to be the best, and, by golly, he's gonna do it come hell or high water.
Every inning he pitches makes him better. He's still going up the learning curve, but he's already left 99% of the rest of them in the dust. The only question is how much more incredibly amazing he might become.
I'll be shocked if he doesn't win Cy Young this year. If I was Loria, I'd sign him long-term right now, he's far more valuable than Stanton, the odds of flame-out and the lack of insurance availability be damned. 10/100. He's unique. Take your shot, now. Even if he turns out to be a Nolasco, he's still worth 10/yr. Too bad it won't happen.
There's really nothing in the numbers to suggest that Fernandez will slump. It's tempting to predict a slump just because it's hard to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA (let alone a sub-2.50 ERA) in MLB, but those aren't really good reasons.
The only thing mildly worrisome is the slight discrepancy between home and road numbers.
I haven't looked but I think his road #s are significantly better in the 2nd half then the first.
Maybe, but I also noticed that he thew far fewer road starts in the second half (much of that has to do with the early shutdown).
You raise a good point, though. It looks like his rough starts on the road were earlier in the season: April 18 & 23 and May 27. This actually makes me feel better about the park factor for next season.
Gonna go with Capps. I think he figures out his control problems and becomes a decent late reliever and spot setup guy.
I will go with Henderson Alvarez to be the biggest surprise. I think he will build on his no-hitter against the Tigers and finish a close second in wins to Jose Fernandez in 2014. As far as the minors go, I will go with C/2B Austin Barnes. I think he's a player on the rise for the Fish.
I couldn't agree more about Henderson. I was big on him when we acquired him from Toronto, he had a pretty good season last year as I hoped, and I think he's going to get better. If he can get his K rate up, he could be a legit #2 starter... the stuff and command is all there, and while pitching to contact in Miami isn't really a big deal and should help him go deep into games, it would be nice to see him punch a few more guys out.
My surprise would be that Henderson bats .280 with 2+ homers next season...
Henderson will not repeat his .18 HR/9 next year. The question is will he improve his other stats when that # gets to a more reasonable rate to be a successful pitcher.
I also think DeSclafini has a good spring and may get a call up if an injury occurs to a starter.
I think DeSclafani is at least a full year away. He's barely pitched above single-A and there's a number of arms ahead of him...
Adam Conley. Bold Prediction Time: He'll be in the starting rotation by June and will be the team's third best starter behind only Fernandez and Alvarez.
I think Jacob Turner will pleasantly surprise with an ERA around 3.20 and over a dozen wins.
That is a great stat (2.6% HR/FB in other terms). Before last season, he was around 16-17%. Ballpark certainly a factor, but it's very fair to think that goes up 10%+ instantly, if not more. For those wondering what that means, Alvarez 'should' have given up 10+ more HR last year. That would have pushed his era closer to 4.50. Literally.
I like him because he gets a lot of ground balls, has decent control, and throws hard so you can hope for progression (still really young), but he's a 4/5 innings eater longterm until he strikes out 2-3 more guys per 9 inning. Pretty amazing he doesn't get more whiffs throwing 93+ on average. If he can do that though, could get really good.
Saying that, I expect him traded this deadline as he hits arbitration next year, they like Eovaldi more, and Heaney and Nicolino are not going to be held up when they are deemed ready.