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The three year plan

Discussion in 'Miami Marlins' started by Nny, Dec 24, 2013.

  1. Nny

    Nny JohNNY

    [​IMG]

    The point of this is to really be able to objectify what holes we need to address and what resources we have to address those holes. I did this last offseason prior to the firesale (which more-or-less justified the firesale unless we were going over a 100m payroll. It's also interesting to see how much our pitching progressed from then) and thought it'd be good to see where we now stand going forward.

    Few notes:
    -* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll
    -Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins
    -Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers. This is meant as a rough view and not meant to be completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture.
    -If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable.

    2014

    Nothing really to say except that our IF sucks ass while the rest of our team is good and our payroll is super low (aka what everyone already knows). I have us at ~78 wins, Zips has us at ~75 wins. So there really isn't much hope even with major break outs. Our IF just sucks so bad

    2015

    With continual development from the likes of Fernandez, Yelich, and Ozuna/Mars, the first full season of Heaney, and the departure of Dobbs, I think we progress to being around a .500 win team. Still way too many holes in the IF. Our pitching staff will likely be in the top-5 (and that's being conservative) in the NL, our OF will be top ranked as well, but our current projected IF is looking like the worst in baseball.

    The good part? The IF FA class is a lot more interesting than this past year's. Up the middle, there is Lowrie, Hardy, and Asdrubal Cabrera (Their contracts probably being around 3-4 years at 9-12m per). At third, there's Sandoval and Headley (4-5 years at 14-17m per). All of which are about ~3 WAR players and relatively young.

    Further expounding optimism is just how much money there is to play with. We're looking at a current projected payroll of just 50m. Removing Cishek, Dunn, and McGehee frees up over another 10m. Hech and Turner are more pieces that would not hurt to move to free up room. We could sign 3 of the above players and still be around just a 75m payroll.

    Now, it's unlikely we sign all 3 for a lot of reasons. But we need to sign at least two (likely of the up-the-middle variety so as not to block Moran) to be serious contenders. If we do that, we're looking at a ~5 win increase and now being an upper-80's team. Still not great, but there's a lot of room for growth with our young players.

    There is also dealing from our SP depth to fill these holes. And that really should not hurt us all too bad.

    If we have a desire to upgrade 1st (and we likely should), it'll have to be through trade. The FA class there is incredibly weak. But there is also the option of moving Stanton to first if both Ozuna and Marisnick develop well. This would free up even more money to spend on the rest of the IF.

    2016

    With Fernandez hitting arbitration, as well as the continual raises in others like Stanton, Eovaldi, Alvarez, and Cishek, our payroll is getting pretty high. Dumping a lot of our pen (which, with our pitching depth, is not a bad thing) frees up a ton of payroll though so this isn't too big of a thing. Again: need IF help.

    2017 will also be pretty hard on payroll with more guys like Yelich and Ozuna/Mars hitting arbitration. Plus Stanton getting huge pay raise from FA years. Oh, wait. Sigh.

    TLDR

    Lot of hope starting in 2015 based off how good our pitching and OF are, along with a stronger IF FA class and a lot of money to spend. As long as they actually spend that money.
    mystikol87 and dim like this.
  2. Erick

    Erick Marlin

    We're on the yearly sell-low plan.
  3. Erick

    Erick Marlin

    Trading Steve Cishek is the obvious thing to do.
  4. Wild Card

    Wild Card Batting Third

    Probably the reason for Carter Capps. Hopefully they're right there with you on that. Take a year for Capps to develop further and hopefully Cishek continues to prove his worth the first 3 months of this season so we can rape someone at the deadline.
  5. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    Good stuff, thanks Nny.

    Well if by 2016 they haven't made a significant move to fill either 1b, 2b, or SS (or skip 2b if Dietrich figures it out I guess), then they suck again. It seems like they're not that far off yet with this FO you never know how feasible it is to fill holes in FA. Salty was a nice step. Pitching and outfield and probably pen have real promise. If all the kids pan out, just find 1 or 2 infielders and we're in business. You hate to count on every young guy working out but that's sort of the situation we're in.

    Marisnick figuring out the bat seems like a HUGE deal (I don't how Stanton would work at 1B and there's always the Yelich option too) because that leaves maybe only 2 holes in the IF (assuming Moran doesn't flop). Really even if he can just be average out there it's a good thing.

    Agree on Cishek. I don't know if they HAVE to, but unless they raise payroll significantly or someone unexpected busts out they'll probably need to turn him into an IF piece. I'm always surprised at how the closer arby numbers rocket up. Unless they're a contending team that's a tough luxury to justify the dollars on, as much as I'd love to keep him around.
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2013
  6. Erick

    Erick Marlin

    It wouldn't be a terrible idea to trade Stanton either. Right now, we could get a bunch for him. Our OF is pretty set. Even if one of those guys doesn't pan out, a corner OF'er is one of the easiest positions to fill in free agency as proven this offseason.

    The Marlins seem to think they can win with a couple of stars and a bunch of scrubs and it doesn't work that way.
    Entendu likes this.
  7. gizmo

    gizmo RALLY, BITCH

    Trade Stanton for an infield.
  8. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    you think they feel they can win with the current team? I think they know it's still very likely going to be a losing season. they'll put a nice spin on it but Jennings/Hill aren't that nuts.... at least I don't think so.
  9. dim

    dim President of the Robert Andino Fan Club.

    I'll read through the entire thing in a bit, but I wanted to just point out that I found it funny that in these projections Furcal is set to produce about as much this year as Dietrich is expected to produce at 2B the next two years.

    Another reason why the Furcal signing was useless and the team should just let Dietrich prove himself as the starting 2B next season. Furcal is just a $3 million addition to the payroll and taking valuable learning experience away from Dietrich.
  10. dim

    dim President of the Robert Andino Fan Club.

    Also looking forward to HodgePodge having a breakthrough season. Been watching this kid since his career started and he looks like a underrated star in the making. One of the few guys who can start AND finish games.
    SilverBullet1929 likes this.
  11. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    dammit beat me to it dim.
    dim likes this.
  12. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    Seattle seems to be going all-in and they want a closer. I don't know why we didn't just expand the LoMo deal to get Nick Franklin. This seems like a good fit - Cishek alone wouldn't be enough would it? Add Nicolino maybe?
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2013
  13. Wild Card

    Wild Card Batting Third

    I was going to mention this in my post. I think the Marlins wanted to enter the year with Cishek, you know, just in case they're good. And the Mariners are smart to keep Franklin as a trade chip. But when July rolls around that could be a perfect match up.
  14. Entendu

    Entendu sXe

    This.

    We don't really need superstar position players with our pitching. We can field an average-to-above-average offense and be a very good team. This requires solid position players, but no actual 'star.' I hate it when teams put their money on one big player, because when that player is injured or has a bad year, the season is pretty much over.
  15. Wild Card

    Wild Card Batting Third

    Not to mention Yelich and Fernandez can be the faces of the franchise moving forward, if that's what they're worried about. If you could move Stanton and pick up, say, Javier Baez and Jorge Soler, why not?
  16. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    Because Stanton is awesome and a real franchise would fix their holes through other means.

    They have the minor league depth (over next year and a half) to trade Cishek, two of Alvarez/Turner/Eovaldi, Dunn, the loser of Ozuna/Marisnick if both work out, and other minor league assets to fill out the infield. Draft a SP # 2 overall in 2014 and throw him in with Fernandez, Heaney, Nicolino, and who remains of Alvarez/Turner/Eovaldi, Let everyone else battle for bullpen and hang in AAA.

    They could easily have a $40 million payroll team of this in 2016

    C-Salty
    1B-?
    2B-?
    SS-Hecha/?
    3B-Moran
    LF-Yelich
    CF-Ozuna/Marisnick
    RF-Stanton
    B- Realmuto/Barnes, Dietrich/Solano, ?, ?, ?

    SP - Fernandez, Heaney, Alvarez/Eovaldi/Turner, # 2 Pick 2014 Draft (Rodon/Hoddman), Nicolino
    RP - Ramos, Capps, Jennings, and pick your favorite 4 - Caminero, Wittigren, Koehler, Dyson, Sanchez, Olmos, Dayton, Flynn, Urena, Conley, DeScalfani (that is 2 bullpens as a side note of realistic club controlled options)

    Sure you need 3-4 bats on that team, but you have added trade assets (and likely bats) from Cishek, two of Alvarez/Eovaldi/Turner, Dunn, and other trades, and have payroll to spend. Likely $20-30 million total as I can see it creeping to $70 after a few years down. That is going to bring in some offensive talent to round out the club big time.

    That's why you keep Stanton. And by that, I mean sign him for 6 years because you can afford him and can still build a potential juggernaut 2016-2019 around him based on how much everyone else costs. The really smart thing to do would be to front load that contract 2014-2016 (same with Fernandez) and have a more team friendly deal on the backend to account for guys arbitration. Also makes him a more valuable trade chip with a lower salary down the road.

    But yea, they will do dumb things instead.
    PhxPhin likes this.
  17. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    Dunno if I want to jump the gun on the pitching yet. Eo & Alvarez had half seasons. Turner's so-so. High hopes for Heaney & the others but let's not go nuts just yet until it plays out another year. This isn't the Nats or Boston or Tigers. I want Stanton and if they can't work one star contract then Loria should fold up the %^$%^@ tent.
  18. Hotcorner

    Hotcorner Teal Avenger .

    Is this something that other teams have done in the past? I can't think of any off-hand... for guys in roughly the same position as Stanton I mean. Or just that other teams wouldn't have a need to, because they aren't the Marlins?
  19. el penguino

    el penguino Marlin

    Agreed, especially about the pitching.
  20. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    No, you see it in other sports but hasn't really happened in baseball yet, my guess is mainly because no salary cab and the luxury threshold is crazy high compared to others so more flexibility. It's going to happen though at some point. Some team will overcommit to a guy or two as part of a plan to deflect salary years in non-contending years to try and benefit down the road. It could be Tanaka too. A few teams might offer similar overall money deals, but let's say the low payroll-3+ years away Astros put $30 million in the first year and $20 in the second year (and let's say years 3-7 are $10 million each for 7/$100 overall). Present value of money (and no state income tax) makes that a huge windfall if someone else is backloading it where Tanaka can't see the real money until 4 years down the road, but is super rich instantly with Houston. For the Astros, knocks out payroll obligations now (when it doesn't matter) so they can project all their top picks in bigs 3-4 years from now and afford more free agents. Would make sense if ownership is cool with the initial outlay, that's the caveat.

    But anyways, Marlins payroll is maybe $47 right now for 2014, including an estimated $7 million to Stanton. Wouldn't it be wonderful if they signed Stanton to 6/$90, which he would easily take, and put $20 million on 2014 (overall payroll $60 million), another $20 million in 2015 (could easily keep payroll to $60 million with the rest of team), and $15 million in 2016 (which is what he is probably getting in arbitration anyways, payroll would probably be around $40-45 million and need maybe 2 position player starters….seriously). They'd effectively have Stanton 3/$35 for 17-19, when he "should" be making $18-20 million per season (conservatively). Would be huge to keep that extra $8-10 million dollar player on the team during prime years for Stanton/Fernandez/Yelich/Moran/Heaney/etc,, or inversely if somehow they don't need him, talk about getting a major package back if you're trading a top slugger in baseball for less money than Jhonny Peralta gets annually. Loria would be lauded as signing one of the smartest contracts in baseball (given the circumstances, since you know, they should have done this 2 years ago and the circumstances should have never happened...) and would be a first real step in really trying to appease the fans.

    Of course he is cheap and risk-adverse to a fault so it'll never happen, but if they want to operate smartly and plan for 2016 (which is the first reasonable year one can argue they may contend), it's paying off Stanton and Fernandez big next 3 years, to make them (somewhat) cheaper 17-19 when things should be real good. Maximizing assets. Their low payroll is an asset they should use to plan for the future. Stanton and Fernandez on 6 year deals is how they can do it (since there are no other players they should be looking at arb buyouts right now. We can talk Yelich next year if he shows up this year). Got to be creative as a small market.
    cdy_0513 likes this.

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