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The three year plan

Discussion in 'Miami Marlins' started by Nny, Dec 24, 2013.

  1. el penguino

    el penguino Marlin

    Lou, don't you think that the Marlins would be better off offering Stanton something like 10/200 at this point? They have sat on their hands for so long and at this point they should offer him 10/200 and pray that he accepts.
    pollyvonwog and yokofox33 like this.
  2. BenderRobot

    BenderRobot Hello! VIP

    7/100 with options for 8 and 9 for another 45.
    Then after three years, guarantee 8 and 9, and add on 7/155.
    16/300.

    Just do that.
  3. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    I think Stanton is hellbent at getting back to California at some point so I don't see him entertaining that kind of deal despite the money, nor locking him up through his age 33 season, i.e. no opportunity to sign a mega-deal in his prime. At some point, you just gamble on yourself in arbitration. If I was his agent, I would respond with a 5-6 year deal. Makes Stanton a free agent at 29-30 to cash in on a mega-deal in his prime, and that would be a ton of guaranteed money (likely $70-90) to sacrifice 2-3 free agency years when Stanton hasn't made really anything as of yet. Likewise, from the Marlins perspective, he has played over 130 games once (including minors) in the last 6 years. Is that worth a 10 year commitment?

    Got to really balance the two interests at this point as yes, they have sat on their hands and there is no excuse he wasn't signed post 2011 to a 7 year deal with an 8th year option.
  4. Wild Card

    Wild Card Batting Third

    Agreed with Lou, looks like at this point they're not going to be agreeing to a deal. THIS was the off-season to do it, next year he will only be under club control for 2 years and he'll likely just gamble at that point and elect not to sign a deal.

    I really can't blame them to be honest. There are questions about whether he wants to be here, and it looks as if you have 4-5 outfielders that can be major league starters in his absence (Yelich, Ozuna, Marisnick, Jensen, Keys). So if you can deal him next year for a ransom, acquire a pair of long-term IFers that can be impact players, you could make the team stronger with less salary to commit.

    It's never fun to deal a player like Stanton, but at this point, it's probably going to happen.
  5. Larry

    Larry The Head Fish .

    We should be signing Stanton long term right now or trading him right now. No point going year-to-year now. I would prefer we sign him long term obviously.
  6. Wild Card

    Wild Card Batting Third

    I agree and disagree. Right now only one of those 4-5 outfielders is big league ready, and we're already forcing one of them to step up too soon and contribute. If you deal Stanton, now you're asking for two guys to contribute that shouldn't be in the majors. Keeping Stanton will allow those guys more time in the minors, and it should also allow us more time to rebuild a little of his value.

    I actually think it could be very possible to see Stanton get dealt mid season this year. A contender in need of a bat will probably grossly overpay for him to make the post-season, and by July, Marisnick should be ready to get back into the major league lineup.
  7. Larry

    Larry The Head Fish .

    As time passes, our return for him decreases. We're not going to compete in 2014 anyway most likely. That's the only reason I'd deal him ASAP if he's not staying for many years.
  8. Wild Card

    Wild Card Batting Third

    Yes and no, because mid-season teams forget really quickly about anything but winning now. Look at the return that some guys bring for only 2 months and the playoffs... it's often ridiculous.
  9. MarlinsLou

    MarlinsLou Bonifaciennes Unite!

    I agree and have been saying this for 2 seasons now, but just to type it all out.

    Scenarios

    A - Sign him for 6 years and pay him $90 million. You get him for 6 years, but payroll is drastically impacted 2017-2019 with huge numbers limiting your ability to do other things in free agency and/or retain another guy or two hitting later stages of arbitration. There is no CBA in 2019, so there is no idea if compensatory draft picks are still a thing when he inevitably walks back to California.

    B - Trade him now and get 2 great and 2 good young players, but now your league worst offense to give your pitchers a fighting chance has made no improvements whatsoever and there is no superstar bat in the organization anymore (side note: I love Yelich, but I don't suspect he becomes a murderous bat (i.e. limited power and defensive projection) and is probably the 3rd best position player on a great team. Stanton clearly can be a top dog.) The average fan still hates your guts, but baseball insiders really like the Marlins team moving forward in 1-2 years (assuming Loria brings in at least two more Saltys by 2016).

    C - Keep him for 3 seasons and pay him a nominal sum of cash, and get 2 top 40 draft picks for him and control your own destiny with making picks. CBA runs through this year so the comp picks can be counted on. There is a possibility of contending in 2016, and you have Stanton in a contract year.

    D - Keep him a year or two and trade him when he is closer to free agency where an acquiring team will have less a chance of signing him unless they pay an enormous sum to make him not want to test free agency. This likely limits potential trades to west coast, and likely California, teams. This also limits what you would get in a trade by moving him now by probably a third, and you'll only get 1 really great guy and 2 good ones.

    So what do you do?

    A is best scenario in a vacuum. Keep him, build the team around him. They look good on paper if they do this and have the payroll to deal with it. It eliminates the unknown in prospects. D is far and away worst scenario. Stanton for 2014 means nothing except they score a few more runs in a non-contending year. And yea it may piss off some fans, but they have already done that and its most important to get the best package now if the decision has been made to move him. Not get 2/3rds of what you were going to get just to win 75 games instead of 70 next year.

    But I think B and C are closer scenarios than one thinks in a vacuum (see below) because getting those comp picks is kind of getting half the value of your prospect trade in the first place, and you get 3 years of Stanton for very cheap prices, which is worth more than prospects I would say. He could be monstrous in 2016 playing for a contract around a team that, on paper, looks very good right now and could be a contender. If Loria opens the bank and adds 3 free agents he intends to keep (let's say 1 really good one and 2 more saltys), I can live with Scenario C as Stanton is then kept in a scenario where they are actually going for it.

    --

    However, I did intentionally not mention one thing above which is ancillary and going outside the vacuum. You also clear payroll in scenario B which is why I think this becomes a very very attractive option because now, you can immediately go out and sign Ubaldo/Garza/Ervin (take your pick) to a 4 year $60 million dollar contract (marlins 1st rounder protected so no big deal), and get all the young guys from another team. I like the idea of dealing with Seattle. They would probably run to trade Walker, Franklin, Smoak, J. Montero, Pike (a good low A SP prospect, think a Nicolino type guy. He is probably the 2nd or 3rd most valuable property in this trade as a side note), and Taylor/Marte (decent young SS prospect flyer, would each be in Marlins top 8-13 prospects) for say Stanton and Alvarez. That gives Seattle the big OF bat they need and a good young 3/4 SP they control for a few years. Kind of a best case scenario for them as Stanton and Alvarez cost less than Cruz/FA SP so they can go all in on Tanaka. This would be tremendous for the Marlins as well as they could stick Franklin and J. Montero (who still has big upside, and at a minimum hits lefties, .828 career OPS MLB level… see where I'm going with that) in AAA for half of 2014 and see what happens for them. Both are probably mainstays on 25 man for seasons once the summer hits, with Franklin taking over 2B longterm. Smoak, who is controlled for 3 years and won't make much, takes over 1B (a very quiet .869 OPS vs RHP last year) in a quasi-stop gap situation and G. Jones shifts to RF for short term which is not a terrible situation with one of Marisnick/Ozuna hanging in AAA. Most importantly, Walker slips into rotation mid-season with Heaney (making rotation them plus Fernandez, Ubaldo/Garza/Ervin, and best of Eovaldi/Turner, plus Nicolino long term… which is a really exciting 7 man group), Marlins get a younger Nicolino in Pike which is huge for the system and a good young SS prospect to bring up with Romero (marlins best 2B prospect in A ball) in lower minors.

    That team will still hit RHP a bit in 2014 to give them a fighting chance, but the SP staff and bullpen would be ludicrous short and longterm even when they trade Cishek, Dunn and at least some of Eovaldi/Turner/Nicolino/Flynn/Conley/DeScalfani/Urena/Koehler (note - as stated the Marlins have 4 guys in their rotation in front of all of these guys in this scenario) for more bats. Additionally, your # 2 overall pick becomes a bat selection and now you can shift over to T. Turner and not feel bad about neglecting the top end of your rotation as you've added Walker and a real legit veteran # 3 through 2017. Plus, having significant payroll flexibility moving forward to add more bats.

    Basically, in this rosy scenario, the no-Stanton trade to Seattle Lou 2016 team looks like

    C - Salty, J. Montero (stanton trade)
    1B -
    2B - Franklin (stanton trade)
    SS - T. Turner (2014 # 2 pick, fast moving college. Not huge upside, but should be good) (lets say Hech doesn't work out)
    3B - Moran
    LF - Yelich
    CF - Marisnick (let's say Ozuna doesn't work out)
    RF -
    Other Bench - Maybe they get a good bench player or two out of Bugosevic, Dietrich, Keys, etc., but whatever

    SP - Fernandez, Walker (stanton trade), Ubaldo/Garza/Ervin (FA 2014), Heaney, Nicolino <- Ludicrous
    RP - plenty of options, will all be club controlled and cheap highlighted by most projectionable Ramos, Capps, Wittgren, Caminero, Urena, Dayton, Conley

    The above costs estimated $40-45 million in 2016 payroll, i.e. they can afford two enormous bats in free agency at the two easiest spots on the field to get players and they've also traded Cishek, Dunn, Smoak (stanton trade), Eovaldi, Turner, and maybe some other SP like Flynn/DeScalfani and relievers off this team for more offense for right now that fits in anywhere. Upper minors is probably "ok" and highlighted by 4-5 decent arms led by Pike (stanton trade) and Williams (2013 draft), a few developmental bats like Barnes, Realmuto, Romero, Copeland, Taylor/Marte (stanton trade), and your top picks in 2015 draft.

    So yea, this is a rosy best case scenario situation with a lot of moving parts, but I like this scenario a lot. Alternatively, just keep Stanton, draft Rodon/Hoffman # 2 in 2014 to add to rotation by 2016, and do the same thing - trade all excess players for bats and sign another one in a year or two.

    It's hard to project which of these is better, but either way, they can make this right with or without Stanton. But I do know, fixing things in free agency in scenario C can work, but then hurts your payroll big time 17-19 (unless Loria is just cool running $80-90 payrolls moving forward lol) and scenario D is just kind of stupid unless they get supremely lucky in a trade scenario. I expect D to happen because Loria is cheap, has no vision, and doesn't really care overall as long as team is profitable on revenue sharing, so this is all whatever and a good waste of my time on a slow Thursday
    ArtisticHate, Entendu, Larry and 3 others like this.
  10. Entendu

    Entendu sXe

    I hate this team
  11. The team signed the wrong people before 2012, we are going to suffer for it until at least 2015 and probably 2016.
  12. tranquility

    tranquility Muckdog

    Seattle's reported interest in a closer has been overstated as the Mariners have a cost-controlled 26-year-old closer in Danny Farquhar, who in his final 29 appearances last season posted a 1.69 ERA, with 44 strikeouts in 32 innings, holding opposing hitters to an amazing .147/.230/.183/.413 line.
    Would six years of Seattle infielder Nick Franklin be enough to land six years of Miami outfielder Jake Marisnick? The Mariner pitching staff needs a good defensive outfielder even more than it needs a bat. Leaving Franklin out of the equation in a Marisnick trade, would the Marlins be interested in package starting with five years of 24-year-old former top propsect Jesus Montero as a righthand-hitting complement to 32-year-old Garrett Jones at first base?
  13. Entendu

    Entendu sXe

    No, but we'll trade you Stanton for your #7,8,9,10,15,20,25,30,31,32,33,34,35 best prospects, MLBTradeRumors style! I love these trade proposals.

    But seriously, I don't think they'd ever go for Montero. They might go for Franklin, but I think it'd be a dumb move.
  14. tranquility

    tranquility Muckdog

    I know what you mean ... this Seattle fan has been reading those proposed trades for Felix Hernandez for years.
    Entendu likes this.

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