Jump to content

Josh Johnson: Baseball's best pitcher


Recommended Posts

A couple of great stories on JJ featured on ESPN right now...

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

http://insider.espn....ins-nl-east-mlb

 

Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies had it easy in the National League East. Only in the AL Central, where the Detroit Tigers were the lone team to finish above .500, did a division winner enjoy a wider margin of victory than the 13 games that separated the Phillies from the Atlanta Braves. However, the defending division winners appear vulnerable this season, and no NL East team can expect to cruise to a title.

 

 

Baseball Prospectus projects the division's first- and last-place teams to be separated by just nine games, the second-smallest range after the NL West's eight-game differential. Things look even tighter at the top, where the Phillies and Miami Marlins are projected to tie, with the Braves trailing by only one game. In no other division is a third-place team projected to finish fewer than four games behind the leader.

 

 

 

Top NL rotations

 

The best projected NL starting rotations based on true average against.

 

The NL East is the only division aside from the perpetual powerhouse AL East to feature three teams that have at least a 25 percent chance of making the playoffs. With such a small spread between teams, the performance of a single player could mean the difference between third place and a playoff berth.

 

 

Each contender is depending on at least one prominent position player with a spotty health history -- Chase Utley for the Phillies, Jose Reyes for the Marlins, Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward for the Braves -- but a pitcher, Miami's Josh Johnson, might play the most pivotal role. Four of the NL's seven best projected starting rotations hail from the East (see chart), and the Marlins' continued membership in that group hinges on keeping him healthy because, on a per-batter basis, no starting pitcher has been more dominant than Johnson over the past three seasons.

 

 

 

Because Johnson has played in a sparsely attended stadium and shares a division with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Stephen Strasburg -- three of the game's most popular aces -- he has largely avoided the spotlight, but he's been as effective as any other starter in recent years. From 2009 to 2011, the best starting pitcher in baseball was Justin Verlander, who totaled 17.1 WARP in that span.

 

 

But the best starter on a per-batter basis was Johnson. Johnson contributed 11.4 WARP from 2009 to '11, almost six fewer wins than Verlander did, but he also held opposing batters to a .218 true average, the best mark among pitchers who threw at least 400 innings (see table).

 

 

 

Top starting pitchers

 

The best MLB starters from 2009-11 based on true average against (min. 400 innings).

 

For perspective, think of it this way: Last year, a historically awful Adam Dunn had a .218 TAv. In the past three years, Johnson made the league hit the way Dunn hit last season. Since 2001, only two pitchers have had more effective three-year stretches, and neither of them is still active: Roger Clemens from 2005 to '07 (.209) and Curt Schilling from 2001 to '03 (.212).

 

 

There's a catch, of course. Johnson might be the best pitcher on the planet, but he can't help the Marlins if he isn't on the mound. All too often, he hasn't been: Johnson has made multiple trips to the 60-day DL, the longest for Tommy John surgery in late 2007 and the latest for shoulder inflammation that ended his 2011 season in May. According to BP's injury database, since 2006, Johnson has spent 470 days either disabled or unavailable because of a day-to-day injury.

 

 

If Johnson has a healthy season, he'll make a run at the 5.0 WARP mark, which he surpassed in 2009 and came close to reaching in 2010. That's the best-case scenario. The worst-case scenario is that he gets hurt and gives way to a combination of Wade LeBlanc and Alex Sanabia, who could be expected to muster at most 1.0 WARP between them from the same spot in the rotation. Right now, our projection calls for 154 innings and a 3.1 WARP from Johnson. Boost that by a couple of wins and the Marlins would become division favorites. Dock it by a couple and they'd be ticketed for third.

 

 

So, which Johnson should the Marlins and their NL East competitors expect: the one who tosses 200 innings or the one who spends the season on the DL? Some outcome in the middle is the most likely, but Johnson's history of elbow and shoulder problems -- either of which can curtail a pitcher's career -- offers ample cause for concern.

 

 

The Phillies and Marlins will square off tonight at Citizens Bank Park, with Halladay taking the hill for Philadelphia and Johnson -- 4-0 with a 1.87 ERA in five career starts in Philly -- making the start for Miami. Banking on more durable Halladay is the better bet, but, if Johnson is at full strength, it might be the Phillies who'll have the harder assignment, tonight and for the rest of the season.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

http://espn.go.com/m...ig-right-hander

 

PHILADELPHIA -- The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins will take the field amid an atmosphere of April big-game anticipation Wednesday night. It's not only because Joey Cora will be making his managerial debut for Miami while Ozzie Guillen plays the lead role in the biggest celebrity squirm-athon since Rush Limbaugh decided to share his opinions about a certain Georgetown University law school student.

Nothing puts the focus back on the game -- for a welcome 2½ hours, at least -- more than an elite pitching matchup, and the 206th straight sellout crowd at Citizens Bank Park will be in for a treat when the Phillies send Roy Halladay to the mound against Josh Johnson. Halladay, 34, is an eight-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young Award winner who enhances his Hall-of-Fame credentials with each quality start. Johnson, 28, is 48-24 with a career 2.99 ERA, and is generally regarded as one of the top 10 starters in baseball when healthy (a little more on that later).

This is the fifth career meeting between the two, and they've shown the ability to create some memorable synergy. Halladay threw a perfect game against the Marlins to beat Johnson 1-0 on May 29, 2010, but he's dropped three of four head-to-head meetings with Johnson going back to his Toronto days and Johnson's rookie year in 2006. After the Marlins beat the Phillies 2-1 last May, Halladay half-jokingly observed, "I'm kind of hoping he goes and plays somewhere else.''

Much of the allure to the matchup revolves around the classic student-versus-Jedi master narrative. Two years ago, Johnson asked for and received permission from Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee to watch Halladay throw a bullpen session. When he later hung around Halladay at the All-Star Game and they talked pitching while shagging fly balls in the outfield, it was widely reported that Johnson had the mother of all professional man-crushes. One South Florida columnist observed that Johnson was "borderline stalking'' Halladay.

In reality, that storyline is simplistic and overdone. Johnson has taken advantage of opportunities to talk shop with Halladay through the years, but only in the name of professional improvement. This isn't an Alex Rodriguez-Cal Ripken Jr. situation, where Johnson woke up each morning to a Doc Halladay poster above his bed.

"I remember when I said I was going to watch him throw a bullpen session, and people were like, 'Oh, you're going to pick up something,''' Johnson says. "No. I just wanted to see the best pitcher in the game work on his craft. I like to watch guys take batting practice, too. It's the same exact thing.''

The observation ritual is all about finding "keys,'' according to Johnson. He has a habit of tapping himself in the leg to remind himself to stay back in his delivery, and he was pleasantly surprised years ago when he saw Josh Beckett doing the same thing. In the course of watching Halladay, Johnson was struck by how seamless and fluid the veteran made it look in the bullpen.

Johnson is listed at 6-foot-7, 250 pounds, while Halladay stands 6-6, 230, but their repertoires are nothing alike. Halladay is a relentless strike thrower who relies on a sinker, cutter and curveball to induce his fair share of ground-ball outs. Johnson is more the classic power pitcher, although he has upgraded his curve and changeup to the point that they've become weapons for him. Two years ago Johnson threw the two pitches a career-high 15 percent of the time. He has continued to refine his offspeed stuff this season as a way to keep hitters off-balance.

In the clubhouse before starts, Halladay retreats into a competitive cocoon bordering on a trance. He might as well hang a "Do Not Disturb'' sign above his locker. Johnson, in contrast, exudes an easygoing vibe most of the time. His favorite way of relaxing before games is to stake out a spot on the clubhouse sofa and watch golf on television.

Johnson plays to a 3.7 handicap, with a personal best of 71 at Wolf Creek Golf Club in Mesquite, Nev., on his 27th birthday. He is a great admirer of PGA players who hit all those fades and draws and use their imagination to visualize their way through a round, and tries to take the same methodical, even-tempered approach to navigating opposing lineups. Even as a young pitcher, Johnson rarely required a visit from the catcher to calm his nerves.

 

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASEBALL

 

• Marlins (Josh Johnson) at Phillies (Roy Halladay), 7 ET (ESPN2 & WatchESPN)

 

"Things just don't seem to affect him a whole lot,'' says Marlins catcher John Buck. "He's pretty focused. When I first started catching him and stuff would go south or something in the game would go bad, he was already moving on to the next out. He's able to flush it real quick. When he's on, it's like he's playing catch with me and it doesn't matter who the hitter is.''

As the youngest of five brothers, Johnson learned to compete against the older kids and keep a lid on his emotions. The main lesson he learned, he says, was the importance of "keeping your mouth shut and knowing when it's your turn to speak.'' During his formative years, his favorite big leaguers were Ken Griffey Jr. and Kirby Puckett -- Griffey because he was the best player in the game, and Puckett because Johnson was born in Minneapolis. When he was 5 years old, the family moved to Jenks, Okla., a Tulsa suburb and the home of 2006 Miss America Jennifer Berry.

Johnson dabbled in basketball as a power forward at Jenks High School, but eventually focused on pitching and attracted the attention of Marlins scouting director Stan Meek. Johnson slipped to the fourth round because of injury concerns and signed for a bonus of $300,000. On his way through the minors, his role model was Carl Pavano, a 200-inning horse who went 18-8 for the Marlins and made the All-Star team in 2004. Johnson has long since passed Pavano in baseball's pitching hierarchy. But as tall pitchers with a lot of moving parts, they've encountered similar challenges staying healthy.

Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007, missed the end of the 2010 season with a strained muscle in his back and shut it down in May last season with shoulder issues. He's healthy now, but the extreme torque and drive required to get everything in the right position can take a toll over time.

"There are days when I wake up and I can barely get out of bed,'' Johnson says. "It takes me 20-30 minutes to get loose and get going in the morning. That's usually at the end of the year. It's tough, but you have to live with it and get in that cold tub as much as possible.''

In an effort to alleviate those problems moving forward, Johnson altered his regimen over the winter. He spent the offseason working with physical therapist Tim Soder in Las Vegas. Soder focused on manual resistance exercises to strengthen Johnson's shoulder, and Johnson now incorporates the exercises into his regular routine with help from the Marlins' training staff.

As opposing hitters and Johnson's Miami teammates will attest, some things just come naturally.

"He was just born with it,'' says Heath Bell, Miami's new closer. "He was born with a gifted arm, gifted pitches, and the body and the build and the height. He was a man at probably 10 years old. He's one of those guys who makes you think, 'Man, if I had that, I wonder what I could do.'''

Regardless of when the Guillen controversy dies down -- or if it lingers long enough to disrupt a season -- Johnson will play a pivotal role in the Marlins' efforts to make the playoffs for the third time in the franchise's 21-year history. He has Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez behind him in the rotation. But as the Marlins discovered last year, it's not the same when every fifth day rolls around and the staff ace can't take the ball.

"If we lose Josh, everybody else has to step up beyond what's expected of them,'' Buck says. "That's why he's important. He gives us that stability where everybody can just go about their business and not feel like they have to do more than they're capable of doing. You know every fifth day who that stopper is. Other guys pitch off that.''

After an encouraging spring and a mediocre debut against St. Louis last week, Johnson is ready to ramp it up a notch. He'll do his best to be oblivious to Halladay, but that's not easy when he looks at the scoreboard every inning and sees all those zeroes.

"You can see his demeanor when you pitch against him,'' Johnson says. "He has one goal in mind, and that's to go right at guys and get those 27 outs. That's how we all want to be. But he does it more often than everybody else does.''

Johnson, a towering figure in more ways than one, shouldn't sell himself short. If history is any indication, he'll give Doc and the Phillies all they can handle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wins above replacement per batter? That's nice and all, but the absolute best in baseball are able to see more batters than Johnson per game because they are more efficient on average. You simply can't say that Johnson, who has a total of 4 career complete games, is better than Halladay, who has average 8 per year over the last 5 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gents, something is seriously wrong with JJ. I wish there wasn't and hope I'm wrong. But that's a different pitcher out there and right now the pitcher I have the least confidence in on our staff. I really hope it's just him stretching out, but I fear the worst...

 

 

Lol that's moronic to have less faith in JJ than Nolasco and Zambrano.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gents, something is seriously wrong with JJ. I wish there wasn't and hope I'm wrong. But that's a different pitcher out there and right now the pitcher I have the least confidence in on our staff. I really hope it's just him stretching out, but I fear the worst...

 

 

He hasn't pitched since May.

 

Are we gonna have some kind of freak out every time we lose? Because that's going to happen at least 70-80 times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gents, something is seriously wrong with JJ. I wish there wasn't and hope I'm wrong. But that's a different pitcher out there and right now the pitcher I have the least confidence in on our staff. I really hope it's just him stretching out, but I fear the worst...

 

 

He hasn't pitched since May.

 

Are we gonna have some kind of freak out every time we lose? Because that's going to happen at least 70-80 times.

 

Nothing to do with winning or losing.... JJ threw nothing but balls and meatballs. He's a different pitcher right now and I hope, but don't think, it has to do with warming up or stretching out...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If he never got any surgery, it makes me wonder if his shoulder is truly, fully healed, though. That does worry me. I'll give him another start, though, before getting completely worried.

 

 

the lack of K's and giving up a bases loaded double was evidence enough for me...

 

Yeah, he's never had a terrible start before. He's done. 9.2 innings of baseball makes this a certainty.

 

Heath Bell is done, too. His peripherals are declining and he blew a save. Done.

Hanley Ramirez done.

 

 

Let's take this beyond our team. Tim Lincecum, he's done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...