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  1. 6 points
  2. 6 points
    Yea it's funny how the Marlins are laughed at when they rush a trade but then laughed at when they try and hold out for better.
  3. 6 points
    The Astros want the best catcher in the league and they want to give us their 5th best prospect. They need to eat a bag of dicks.
  4. 5 points
    And then suddenly, "Marlins sign Realmuto to four year $65M deal." Fans: "LOL how stupid they're not going to compete any time soon why would they do that"
  5. 5 points
    They can give us their fifth. So long as they add in their first.
  6. 4 points
    I wish we could just delete all your posts.
  7. 4 points
    Holy Moly, so the Marlins need to take a return of mediocrity hoping that the 20% chance someone pans out is the best they can do for JT, or else they may be left with what?- accepting mediocrity later. I think we have all the leverage. Someone will be at the doorstep of realizing they have a damn good chance of winning it all if only they give up their top prospects, which may or may not help them win in 2-3 years down the road to get one of the best players in MLB and #1 at his position. I am all in to the new Marlins mindset if they hold firm.
  8. 3 points
  9. 3 points
    I think you're right. They probably know a package they will take from multiple teams, but are holding out for someone to panic (i.e., if Philly signs Machado or Bryce) knowing they can always fallback onto it because it's not like JT isn't desirable. This isn't Castro we're talking about who is good, but has limited appeal. Once Manny, Bryce, Grandal, Pollock, Keuchel, etc. sign, Realmuto will be the best person available, and Robinson Chirinos, Mike Zunino, and Brian McCann aren't preventing a JT deal from going down
  10. 3 points
    Feel the rain on your skin, bitches!
  11. 3 points
    Let's get this thread back on topic, though. lol Appreciate the updates from @SilverBullet and @rmc523 - good stuff so far and I hope we get more soon.
  12. 3 points
    Agreed. If all we're getting offered are the type of returns we got for Ozuna or Stanton then I'm confident we can still get that type of return even when there are less suitors or before the trade deadline. There's no reason to not wait and hold out and hope someone pulls the trigger and gives us a top prospect. JT is absolutely worth it and any team rumored to get him has the funds to sign him long-term. If you read the comments on twitter it's basically a bunch of fans from all the teams rumored to be interested saying some version of how the Marlins got a bad deal in the Stanton or Yelich trades so why are they being so hard to deal with now, should just accept what they're being offered. Sports fans are so dumb sometimes, they're basically answering their own question. If we wanted another mediocre haul, we can do it whenever the eff we want. Pay up or shut up. Fortunately there are actually a few fans that realize how good JT really is. I think we get something done with Dodgers or Astors at the end of the day.
  13. 3 points
    Tough to maintain the same story when it's not true.
  14. 3 points
    There must have been a lot of disappointed faces when they got off the train in Tampa and found out the game was taking place in St Petersburg
  15. 3 points
    Who wouldn’t jump at the chance to walk around a bar asking people “excuse me...are you mrchainsaw?”
  16. 3 points
    TLDR - Don’t fuck up Realmuto trade and pray they spend money on FA for 2021 I have no answer for getting people excited about a total rebuild. You have to be a baseball nerd to appreciate what is happening and how little victories - like going over-slot for Banfield, getting a lucky 3rd rounder in Pompey, acquiring some nominal RHP relievers in back to back years in the Rule5, getting Ca. Smith for a nominal prospect, winning the Phelps trade, getting Richards from the independent leagues, etc. - are eventually going to turn into some real value for the team in years. I am a full on believer in the "Sam Hinkie" rebuild philosophy. Burn it all down until you can be good again. I know that doesn't help short term ticket sales, which definitely cuts against being unapologetic to build a winner, but the end goal is to build a winner so that's how I roll. In any event, I think it's actually a low level of moving parts. It really boils down to "get a good package for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, and Straily when you inevitably trade them." If we do the basic math on the assets that they have, what I'm basically saying is, I think they will have 9+ WAR in 6 position players by 2021, I think they'll have 5+ WAR in 3 SP, and 6+ WAR in relievers. Of course, tinker that up or down among each positional group to 20+ WAR which I think is an acceptable goal. Hitters Anderson - 2.2 WAR projection in 2019 (644 PA) (Note, 3.4 WAR in 2018) Call these guys bench options (longterm basis). Current projections extrapolated to bench PA Brinson - .6 (350/PA) or Dean - .8 (350/PA) Riddle - .7 (350/PA) Cooper - .6 (350/PA) I don’t think we’re asking a lot here for Diaz and VVM to turn into 2+ WAR starters by 2021, or likewise, them not working out and Monte and/or Brinson do work out and become (at least) a low-end 2+ WAR starter on defense/dingers, or if those bench options fail, someone like Sierra or Harold Ramirez working out, or Anderson keeping his 2018 performance. This isn’t great at all, but collectively, if they get 3 starters and 3 bench players out of this producing 9+ WAR, this is starting to form the basis of a CHEAP (important concept is saving money) and solid supporting cast which is all my point is here. Pitchers So then you get to the starting pitching, and assume your 3/4/5 SP can get you 5+ WAR combined. In 2018, Urena, Ca. Smith, and Richards produced 4.4 WAR in 377 innings (well below the innings of what three SP would throw). They might already have this threshold met. Practically, I think I’m averaging this very low considering Neidert looks to be a better prospect than everyone here, Urena took a big step forward this year, and the likelihood that one of Alcantara/Ca. Smith/Richards/Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto works out into at least a good 4/5 SP is high. They all likely won’t fail. In any event, Urena/Pablo/Richards/Ca. Smith this season are projected to have a 3.7 WAR in 464 innings. If you extrapolate that up to 600 innings (i.e., 3 SP), you’re at 4.8 and basically already at this hypothetical threshold I'm debating. I think this is very safe to assume they will get 3 guys here producing a combined 5 WAR in the rotation. I guess you can call that a moving part, but this is a really really low projection. So this gets you to the bullpen. This is where I think I may side with you, but I have cautious optimism. A middle of the pack bullpen is 3.5+ WAR, and an elite bullpen is 6+ WAR. The Marlins need to develop an elite one. The Yankees have averaged over 8 WAR the last 3 seasons, and I don’t think I need to point out who built that bullpen which is where my leap of faith is here. I believe that Denbo/team are really focusing on this and rebuilding the Yankees bullpen down in Miami. When we look at what the pen could look like without needing these guys as starters (Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Holloway, Richards, Ca. Smith, Quijada, and Garcia as the first tier, and a second tier of Anderson, Brigham, Ferrell, Merandy, Gallen, Guerrero, Hernandez, Keller, Yamamoto, Duggers, Beggs, Eveld, Mills, etc.), I think that’s A LOT of guys to figure out 7-8 good arms. I think this is going to be closer to 6 than 3.5 by 2021, even if this falls short. So that's where, shift up the bats or SP a little, shift down the bullpen a little, and we're at 17 players/roughly $42 million (and $16 of that is a final Chen payment)/20+ WAR expectation. I mean, that sucks if you think about it. Their best assets internally (for 2021, basically ignoring 2018 draft) taking away just a few guys, is a probably a 20 WAR team absent something amazing happening. That's just not that great. But, they can trade Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc., they can spend money in 1-2 seasons, and they can unload prospect inventory in 2021 to get another win now player (ala the Brewers). Yea, that is moving parts and a lot of things could go wrong, but a lot of things could go right too. We'll see. This makes total sense to me on paper. They really have to crush the Realmuto trade.
  17. 3 points
    He's asking you why you think the Dodgers should be at the top of the list.
  18. 3 points
  19. 3 points
    Devers is a FV45 prospect, you're not getting that in the 20th+ round. That is a twice in a decade draft pick luck. Stanton would have opted out., and destroyed the team's payroll in 5-6 years if he didn't. Guzman is being worked as a starter to get innings, and is presumably ending in the bullpen. I don't think a small sample size WHIP tells us who he is. Let him throw, and let the bullpen conversion happen in 2020 (or earlier) if it's clear it's a failed experiment. (I find that likely, which is OK. A good reliever is a fine result.) Castro is fine. In fact, I think they should maybe extend him for a 4/$50 type of deal starting this year, so I'm not sure where your head is with him. Check out his BB/Hard Hit rate improvements. He may be a buy low right now entering his middle prime years. You're only making one point here - they whiffed on the Yelich trade. They did horribly, even if Brinson/Monte/Diaz work out (you're also selling Diaz particularly low by the way, FG just said they think he's a probable high floor 2+ WAR starter). We can criticize the living hell out of the Yelich deal, but everything past that wasn't an objectively bad move. Gordon wasn't producing what his salary was paying, and it looks like they hit gold with Neidert. Ozuna was not nearly as valuable as everyone thought. Yea, Alcantara, Sierra, and Gallen are disappointing thus far, it happens. Trades don't work out, but the idea of moving Ozuna wasn't the problem. Stanton getting hurt would have practically ended the franchise if he opted in as a loss. Look at how radical Chen/Prado is impacting the team? How about this in 2021: C - ______, ______ 1B - _______, Cooper 2B - Diaz SS - _______, Riddle 3B - Anderson LF - ________ CF - VVM, Brinson (let's assume he becomes Michael Taylor and Monte fails) RF - ________ SP - ______, _______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (assume all the top rated RHP arms turn into relievers) LHP - _______, Ca. Smith, Quijada (Dead Money - Chen) That's $42 million dollars in 2021, and probably about 20 WAR. Add to this trade returns for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc. You're adding 4-6 more guys to the above, all club controlled, and that's probably moving this to $45 million/30 WAR territory (you're going to get some good guys for those first 3 in particular, of course they could bomb like the Yelich guys, but chances are you don't whiff that big twice). You're back to a .500 ballclub. Now add $40-50 million in payroll on 2-3 major free agents. Cite Wolverine budgets. AND THEN, since your entire team is club controlled for 3+ years, pick 4-5 guys in the minors to trade from this: 2018 draft class (Scott, Osiris, Banfield, Pompey), 2019 Draft class (# 4 overall, two additional early 2nd rounders), 2020 Draft class (likely another top 5 pick and early second rounder), multiple former first rounders (Garret, Rogers), Devers, international free agents (as they are spending again), and anyone else who wants to break out (Miller, Nelson, Dunand, Torres, etc.). The Marlins can do exactly what the Brewers did - trade 3-4 guys and go out and get a Yelich, or Segura, or Andujar, or a Realmuto, or a Kluber, or a Paxton, etc., and really put that cherry on top of the next good Marlins team. Their prospect capital is probably enormous here with the early picks coming. Criticize the Yelich deal A LOT. Putting a 4 WAR Brinson/Monte on top of that team would radically help. But past that, I'm not sure how this is a bad plan in theory. The team sucked. An immediate turnaround wasn't to be expected, even if the Marlins had a good half dozen assets at the MLB level.
  20. 2 points
    Man, the original floor was so valuable to this team. Can't believe Jeter traded away ANOTHER superstar from the Marlins! #FuckJeter
  21. 2 points
    I like how he keeps moving the goalposts too. First it was the Marlins ask for two top prospects in their extortion. Now that he sees he's wrong, he changes it to one top guy and one elite guy whatever the fuck that means.
  22. 2 points
    It's why they need to stick to the high asking price and showing all teams it's a different Marlins organization.
  23. 2 points
    And you didn’t hit me up for a beer and so we could be awkward uncomfortable internet strangers?
  24. 2 points
    I will defend the Eovaldi trade. We got Prado and Phelps and both performed great for us. Prado become a problem after he was extended so that's not part of the Eovaldi trade, that was bad extension but not bad on the trade. I count the Eovaldi trade as for what Prado did here before the extension. And Eovaldi was trash here, can't think anything about what happened to Eovaldi this year. To get what we got was great.
  25. 2 points
    He's a baseball player, not an arsonist.


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