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Dominik

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  1. The marlins are rebuilding and people need to accept that. Now the only thing that makes sense is a total tear down. What they already have. The system already has improved. They have 5 or 6 grade 50 prospects. 50 prospects project as average regular mlb players and usually the best 50s are lower level (75-100) top 100 prospects. They also have some depth of 45s (future mlb bench players) until rank 12-13 or so. The downside is that like more than half of those 50s are more fringy 50s with some question marks and only one or two are top100s. What they need now is more top100s and specifically grade 55+ prospects. A grade 60 prospect is basically projected for 3 war in their prime (like realmuto) while 65s are all stars (like yelich caliber) and 70 are superstars (80 is mike trout or kris bryant so basically non existant). So it is vital that when they trade two grade 60+ players with good contracts in realmuto and yelich that they get top100 guys and specifically 55 and better guys. Some more depth in the 45+ range is also important but biggest thing is that they get a couple 55+ guys into the system because you usually don't get a stanton, yelich, Fernandez or ozuna from 45s and 50s. However depth is also important. You need a core of 6-7 well above average players but even that doesn't work if you don't have the depth, the marlins and white sox couldn't win with excellent cores either. Modern way is depth and teams like the dodgers and cubs have basically 20 average players on the rosters while bad teams have negative war players. But of course they have the 3-4 star players too. So marlins need to accomplish both, getting back a good core but also stuff back end of the roster with 1-1.5 win players (i.e the 45 prospects) rather than -0.5 win players (35-40 prospects). Not an easy task. They stil have bour, realmuto and yelich to trade. Get the maximum out of it.worst case would be attaching them to chen and other dead money for mediocre prospects, ideally it even is the other way round and they take a contract or two. Also they need to draft well the next years and improve player development.
  2. Absolutely it had to be done. Jeter just communicated it terribly. Too much talk about the money. Should have said from day one that the goal is not to lower payroll but build a monster farm system. They did not do that when they started but instead said they want to "retool" around yelich and ozuna. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/ben-frederickson/benfred-miami-report-reveals-marlins-plan-trade-stanton-keep-yelich/article_5fdf1f30-b6d3-5f93-9b68-388cba70690f.html So why claim that first and then do the tear down anyway? The group never should have talked about the money and not talk about retooling but instead say right away that the goal is to build a monster farm. Of course they really need to save money but they could have done that as a byproduct (see the Phillies or astros who both had super low payroils even without salary dump trading. Together with small things like not bidding for ohtani due to the posting fee (which is a real cost but small compared to his actual surplus value- and they wouldn't have gotten him anyway made it seem to the fans and media. Most analysts thought that the rebuild needs to be done they just do not trust Jeter as the right person to do it.
  3. There definitely was no alternative to tearing it down. The Marlins will suck the next 3 years at least no matter what. That is why yelich and realmuto need to be traded too but for the right return. I also think it is good if they lose 100 next year. If you are bad at least get that first overall pick.
  4. Btw I never questioned the rebuild. Stars and scrubs teams don't work anymore, you need depth in these days. I actually thought they should have started the rebuild when jose was still alive and trade everyone then. I'm a fan of doing the tear down a little bit earlier. But still the financial situation is bad and I feel they could have eaten 60-70m to get a better prospect for stanton and still get to like a 70M payroll or so. Maybe I'm wrong there but being worried about the financial situation is not the same as rejecting the rebuild.
  5. Epstein actually openly laid out a plan when he started in Chicago. You don't have to do that but if you had an owner like Loria and people are suspicious anyway it might have helped.
  6. Ohe no, the Astros and cubs got a lot of hate for that. Phillies took 6 plus years of sucking and while they got better they are still projected sub 500 this year. But it is right marlins got more flak then other teams, likely due their shady past the last decade thanks to Loria and also for prioritizing not eating salary over getting real top prospects. But it is correct that people now should get over it and accept that the Marlins tear down and suck for the next 3-4 years at least, so people should get over that. Still it is important to know whether they can have a competitive payroll in 5 years or whether the consolidation takes a decade plus. so what is actually the plan? Revenue won't exactly go up the next years and even a new TV deal won't be great if the team is coming of several losing seasons and with no stars.
  7. I just wonder how long it will take until they have a normal payroll (they will never be the Dodgers or yankees but at least around 15th in the majors or so)? I think at least 5 years but I read speculations it could take 10+ years.
  8. JT Realmuto Requests Trade

    Which building around? They just salary dump traded stanton for non top 100 prospects and will need to run a low payroll for another half decade at least to consolidate the debts. The farm is improved but still bottom half in mlb. So how are they competing in the next 3 years without a great farm or a decent payroll? Either they spend (not happening) or they build a farm like the padres or braves now have. They decided to rebuild and the only way to do it now is going rock bottom like the Astros a day lose 100 games back to back. That sucks but now it is the best they can do. Of course don't trade him right now but wait for a good offer but eventually he needs to be traded for the right return. The good players need to come from somewhere and with a bad farm and low payroll the only way to go is taking.
  9. We all know about the debt situation. Reportedly the new group inherited 400m of debts. Why didn't mlb force either loria or the new owner to pay up for the debt? Loria sold it for 1.2B so he could have paid for it or find a buyer who pays for it. Mlb could for example have threatened contraction to push loria to do that. But now it is what it is and seemingly the 9th lowest payroll in mlb is not low enough. You need to accept that but how and when will that resolve? With that method of saving it would take more then a decade to get back to zero. Increased revenue will be a possibility but were will that come from with a crap product? Gate will be even lower and a new tv deal can happen but they are not super attractive for that either with being that bad. I don't mind a couple bad years but I would like to see a clear plan both considering finances and baseball ops (definitely prefer a total rebuild and tanking). Worst thing would be if finances never get better and new group hides behind it forever. We should accept tear down and a low payroll but there needs to be a long term plan.
  10. Dee Gordon traded to the Seattle Mariners

    Longenhagen had a 45 on neidert and a 40 on torres. No elite guys but good depth guys that have the chance to make the majors in some role. They need 50+ prospects to really start the rebuild but it is always good to have more depth.
  11. Frisaro mentions Ohtani as possibility

    No but it is a bad sign that they wouldn't even consider such a bargain for almost free. Of course they would not have gotten him but why not make an offer at least and instead publically state you are not interested.
  12. Frisaro mentions Ohtani as possibility

    Btw even if it is about the money they easily could have traded him for 20m of salary relief AND 2 top100 prospects. Just plain stupid decision, not defensible in any way. And why come out with that anyway and not just make a half assed offer?
  13. Frisaro mentions Ohtani as possibility

    Is it really true that the marlins did not bid for otani because they did not want to pay the 20m posting fee in case they win? Sullivan totally went off on them because of that in the podcast today. I mean likely they wont have won anyway but why not try? I mean you pay like 25m to get a player worth 100+,that is a bargain. Btw is jeter running the team now? I think he is a smart guy but they need a real gm with the power to make decisions.
  14. Marlins decline option on Ichiro

    I think that makes sense. Ichiro is an icon but he hasn't hit well or even acceptable in years. They could have kept him for another tank year but what is the point now that he has 3K hits?
  15. Sun Sentinel: "Why it's a good idea to trade Stanton"

    Imo there are only two options: Either trade stanton but then blow it all up and trade anyone or keep stanton and build around him. I wrote a little post on fangraphs about why I think that is true. https://www.fangraphs.com/community/if-the-marlins-trade-stanton-they-need-to-trade-everyone-else/
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