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FishDynasty

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Everything posted by FishDynasty

  1. LaMar is easily one of the worst GMs in baseball, regardless of what position he is in with his salary. Perhaps the best GMs are in the biggest markets for the same reason the best players are in the biggest markets, thats where they get paid the most. GMs dont just "stumble into situations" they are pursued just like players and the best GMs can pick what job they want (i.e. Billy Beane chose Oakland over Boston, and Paul Depodesta turned down several offers until the Dodgers asked). Cashman is a great GM precisely because he has won with Steinbrenner on his tale. 1980's Steinbrenner was all over his GM, telling him what to do and they were one of the worst teams in baseball. Cashman was allowed to do his thing without Steinbrenner meddling in his business and he built the championship nucleus of Posada, Jeter, Bernie, Rivera, O'Neill, players almost any franchise could have had via draft or amatuer free agent or cheap trade. They were not coveted free agents ala A-rod or Giambi. Now Steinbrenner has begun to mess around with the rosters and they are buying everyone in sight. Just give Cashman his due for the dynasty he built the "old-fashioned" way. As for Billy Beane, he is easily one of the best GMs in baseball. I mean what is the difference between his situation and Lamar or Baird's except for the fact that he wins? Even the Moneyball draft was solid, there starting LF (Swisher), 5th starter, or soon to be, (Blanton) plus their closer (Dotel, whom they got for Teahen) all came from that draft. Now the Fish have about as many picks as the A's had in 2002 and if they get those results from the draft i'll be ecstatic.
  2. You can't judge BP stats on how they did with Miguel Cabrera because Miguel Cabrera is such a rare player, few have done what he did at such an early age, I dont think anybody saw him having that good of a year. Regardless, here are the predictions in 2004 for the Marlins regulars Predicted vs Actual Mike Lowell .276/.351/.476 vs .293/.365/.505 Jeff Conine .263/.331/.407 vs .280/.340/.432 Luis Castillo .285/.357/.369 vs .291/.373/.348 Alex Gonzalez .256/.315/.403 vs .232/.270/.419 Juan Pierre .299/.355/.380 vs .326/.374/.407 Paul Lo Duca .271/.331/.400 vs .286/.338/.421 Difference -0.017/ -0.014/ -0.029 -0.017/ -0.009/ -0.025 -0.006/ -0.016/ 0.021 0.024/ 0.045/ -0.016 -0.027/ -0.019/ -0.027 -0.015/ -0.007/ -0.021 % Different -5.80%/ -3.84%/ -5.74% -6.07%/ -2.65%/ -5.79% -2.06%/ -4.29%/ 6.03% 10.34%/ 16.67%/ -3.82% -8.28%/ -5.08%/ -6.63% -5.24%/ -2.07%/ -4.99% Predicted vs Actual Cumulative (average) .275/.340/.406 vs .285/.343/.422 So I think the predictions were fairly close, i mean only .003 off on cumulative OBP, so are the predictions perfect? No, but they are as good as anything out there.
  3. While I too at first strongly disagreed with what the analysis was saying, I have thought through it a bit and they may be on to something. Ok, on the Matsui vs Castillo debate, last year was right in line with Castillo's career averages, maybe his average was on the lower end, but the difference between .290 and .300 is about 6 hits, so it is basically neglible. Castillo being 29 is most likely to repeat his performance, generally 27 is the peak season for players with their careers slowing tapering off after, and speed players tend to taper off quicker than power players. Matsui, despite being 29, is more likely to improve as this will be his 2nd go around in the majors and he will be better adjusted. Castillo is definitely better at D, their offense now favors Castillo but Matsui has a higher upside, so maybe Castillo should be a few VORP runs ahead. However, I think an even greater atrocity occurred at SS, where Gonzalez has a higher VORP than Reyes. Now all of this is predicated on Reyes staying healthy, a big if, but if he does he could be one of the best SS in the NL, possible 30+ VORP, gonzalez is not likely to change his stat lines. At OF, they probably should have used Conine instead of Encarnacion, but it is a toss up and depends on who is healthier. As for the defensive argument, I do not thing the Marlins are that much better than the Mets. It really boils down to our IF is superior to their IF, but basically at 2 positions - 2B and SS, Wright and Lowell are both solid defenders and neither Delgado or Phillips/Piazza are good at 1B. However, in the OF the Mets have a huge advantage with Beltran and Cameron, two of the best CFs manning the OF. This offsets Floyd and is surely better than our non-descript defensive OF, especially when COnine is in the game. Pitching though is the real wildcard in the analysis. Burnett and Beckett both could dominate and be much better than Pedro, or they could mess around like they have been doing and be only good. On the other hand, Pedro could dominate like he should, Peterson could impact Zambrano and Benson, and the MEts could have a feared rotation, but all in all the Fish definitely have the better rotation, i would even say much better. The bullpen is erratic at best for both teams and they both have lots of relievers that could be great or awful, you never know (see Hammond, Chris). The Mets have huge injury risks all across the board, which I am not sure how PECOTA captures, and thus the Marlins are thought to be the better team. HOwever, if all the Mets stay healthy, a huge if, then they are a very dangerous team, which the aforementioned analysis captures.
  4. Hermida is definitely our top prospect. His power is developing as he was 3rd in the Arizona Fall League in Hrs despite being one of the youngest players (most of the players are AA or AAA, Hermida was at A last year). Also last year he had a solid .297-.377-.441 stat line in the Florida State League, a notorious pitcher's league (for comparison's sake, Cabrera hit .274-.333-.421 at FSL, though he was a year younger than Hermida). So with developing power, a beautiful swing and a precocious mastery of the strike zone and you have one of the top outfield prospects in the game. Now Olsen definitely could be an ace for years to come, but right now he has been a bit inconsistent, that coupled with the fact that pitching prospects are so risky to begin with and Hermida has to be our top prospect. FYI From Baseball America on Bill Murphy "Murphy's prospect status took a dip in '04. His command went downhill, and for the third straight year, he ran out of gas in the second half. He needs to trust his stuff more, and not worry about painting the corners with every pitch. He's fallen behind some other options in AZ."
  5. Hands down Jeremy Hermida. Olsen and Bazardo are solid pitching "prospects" but pitching prospects are much riskier because of injuries, et al. Even so, Hermida projects out to be our best big leaguer, Willingham can hit but doesnt have a position and Stokes cant make consistent contact.
  6. You need to check your math Delgado - .282 avg, .392 OBP, .556 SLG, 336 HR Ordonez - .307 avg, .364 OBP, .525 SLG, 187 HR thats a difference of 149 HR's, oh, and you are leaving out the biggest advantage of Magglio, he is nearly 2 years younger, comes with less risk in that he would be signing a one year deal most likely, and there is a great chance he could turn into 2005's Benitez, i.e. player coming off a down contract year, signs a one year deal, goes huge then gets a big contract after. Yes we would probably lose him after this year, but Hermida should be ready to take his place by then, and with all the contracts coming off the books we could get a younger 1B or try stokes. Now, with all that said, I still think I would rather have Delgado, but if we get either I will be ecstatic
  7. Hey, I was wondering if anyone knew of a good link that had all the players salaries not just for this year, but for up coming years and when they will be eligible for arbitration and free agency? I am just curious about several players on the Marlins as well as other teams and trying to figure out who we might go after in the future. I am also wondering what Juan Pierre's contract status is, as he should be eligible for FA soon, and while he does mean so much to the franchise and is one of (if not the main) face of the franchise, yet we have Eric Reed getting ready to make the jump.
  8. The bad news about Benitez signing with the Giants is that we do not get their first round pick for compensation, rather, since they already signed Omar Vizquel, who also is a Type A Free Agent, the Indians get the Giants 1st round pick plus another sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round. Assuming Benitez signs with the Giants, the Marlins would then get the compensatory sandwich round pick and the Giants 2nd round pick.
  9. If we had Kazmir, there is no guarantee he would even be up, in fact, i'd be willing to bet the D-rays are the only organization that he would currently be playing in the majors (maybe the royals). Hermida is doing just fine, and by looking at our farm system, our pitching is far better than our positional prospects. If you really want to get upset, get mad at signing Charles Johnson back in 2001, not only was that a waste of a contract but it cost us a 1st round pick in the loaded 2001 draft, among those we could have drafted - Jeremy Sowers (didnt sign, but was top ten pick this year), Kris Honel (top prospect with ChiSox), Bobby Crosby (SS Oak), David Wright (3B NYM)and Dallas McPherson (3B Ana). One more point about Johan Santana, in the 1999 Ruvle V draft, Minnesota had the 1st pick and Florida had the 2nd pick, the teams agreed to a prearranged deal involving santana and camp and cash, so we never really had santana or had a chance at santana.
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