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  14. I'll say thanks for the reply and I don't know that I'm going to be able to get in everything I want to now, but a few things before I get started: 1. I realize that slap hitters comprise most of those who have GB rates > 48, so yeah I like that you threw them out. That's good. 2. No problem with projecting Logan's HR/FB over 14%, but to a point. 3. This is going to be tough for me to do b/c there's no MILB GB data on most of these guys, but one thing I want to look at is the ISO of those 17 players you listed in their final few (I'm thinking two, preferably when they're roughly age 22) seasons before heading to the majors. I don't like looking at career MILB ISO b/c most guys (the non-freaks unlike Stanton) won't hit for power at a young age. But looking at the ISO of those 17 in the seasons before their callup, and seeing just how much that ISO dropped compared to their career rates, may give a reasonable expectation of whether Logan can maintain a decent ISO. Of course this assumes, among other things, their GB tendencies in teh minors were similar to their MLB ground ball rates. and I mean this isn't going to be perfect, but it's kind of illustrative b/c it can teach us what to expect in terms of MILB ISO v. MLB ISO for primarily GB hitters. But there's also the problem of late developing power and limited data on the MILB careers of the older guys...so I mean, maybe it's not the best idea, but at the same time it does work in showing how much of a dropoff (or increase) in MLB ISO could be expected. One problem, though, is the age/level difference between Logan and these guys. That hurts the comp in some cases. Logan's ISOing .184 as a 21 (soon to be 22) year old at AA. He ISOed .166 as a 20 year old at A+. So, he's improving, which is good. He'll probably get another year in the minors at AAA, so we'll have more data and stuff then, but for now that's all we can go on with Logan. But for Logan to ISO 180 (and OPS around .850), he'll (obvi) have to maintain or increase that ISO. And the group of players you mentioned doesn't show that most of those guys were able to maintain or increase their MILB ISO once they entered MLB. Anyway, among the players you named: Greive ISOed .290 as a 21 year old in 589 PA between AA and AAA. -> MLB ISO way lower, wow was he a good prospect who didn't work out Preston Wilson ISOed .244 as a 22 year old in A+/AA and 298 as a 23 year old in the AAA Marlins season. -> older than logan but may work next season. MLB ISO lower Jacque Jones ISOed ..209 as a 23 year old at AA and .146 as a 24 year old at AAA (only 210 PA though) -> again, older, but MLB ISO higher and lower Ken Harvey ISOed .168 as a 23 year old at AA (only like 350 PAs) and .188 as a 24 year old at AAA -> older, and I mean...Ken Harvey? lol. But MLB ISO lower Admin Bigbie was kinda all over the place Shawn Green ISOed .074 as a 20 year old in AA and ..166 as a 21 year old in AAA -> MLB ISO higher, at higher level than Logan Hunter Pence doesn't have enough of an MLB career yet, but he ISOed .192 as a 22 year old in A+, .250 as a 23 year old in AA. -> MLB ISO lower, but he's prob too young Gary Matthews ISOed .173 as a 23 year old AA, .130 as a 24 year old in AAA, and .151 as a 25 year old in AAA. -> MLB ISO higher Jeter ISOed .105 as a 21 year old at AAA -> MLB ISO higher Simon's all over in terms of MLB-minors Tejada ISOed .183 as a 21 year old in AA (last full season) -> MLB ISO really similar Hunter ISOed .168 as a 21 year old in AA, ..156 as a 22 year old in AA, and .206 as a 22 yeyar old in AAA (but less than 100 PAs) -> MLB ISO higher Bernie Williams ISOed .179 as a 23 year old in AAA. - MLB ISO same, but this was the end of Bernie's career Zeile and Walker are so far towards tthe end of their career it's probably not a good idea to compare their MILB #s to their MLB numbers in this case. Same thign with Bernie. I think that's everyone? Anyway I guess the point I'm trying to make with this is that a bunch of these guys saw thier ISOs drop or stay the same upon entering MLB. After Logan's AAA year it'll be easier to tell, but right now he'd have to maintain or increae his ISO in order to meet that .180ish mark, and among that group over their career not all that many were able to increase or maintain a .180ish ISO for their career. That said, at his peak Logan may be able to go above the .180 iso mark. I wish there were numbers on guys like Walker nad Williams to see what their GB rates were like at the peak of their careers. The other thing about this though is that most of these guys aren't the same type of athletes as Logan (Jeter, Hunter, Matthews, Pence, Tejada). Logan's a bigger, stronger, less athletic type compared to some of them. I mean, looking at the list, not many of these guys were 1B/LF types with defensive issues. Not sure if that's in Logan's favor (b/c then he'd be expected to grow into his power, and i mean this helps the hope for a 17% HR/FB projection) or against him (failrue to adjust b/c of lack of athleticism/long swing, hits more ground balls upon arrival in majors). Yeah that was a ramble I didn't proofread but I hope you got the point I was hoping to make - that alot of the guys from that group of GB hitters weren't able to maintain their MILB ISO, and if Logan can't maintain his current MILB ISO he won't hit that magic .180 mark, for whatever reason (increased GB, drop in HR/FB, whatever)
  15. What most likely happens: His lack of FBs keeps him from really breaking out in the HR department, but his high HR/FB still allows him to hit a lot. His LD and other abilities allow him to be in the upper 1/4th in the league in BABIP, but his speed keeps him from being in the elite category. He walks, he doesn't strike out, basically he is your prototypical mid-.800 OPS hitter Best case scenario: Speed be damned, his ability to hit the ball puts him at the upper echelon of BABIP. He's able to drop his GB% and raise his FB%, allowing him to break the 30 hr cusp. This new found power then allows him to walk more, and he's patient enough to take the walks not not strike out. He'll likely always K too much to be the next Albert Pujols, but everything else here is basically Miguel Cabrera reincarnated. Worst case scenario: He just hits too many GBs to hit for above average power. His ability to hit BABIP is still good, but as he faces better pitching and defenses it only becomes good and not great. Hi Nny. I was going to respond here or fishguts or (defunct so redacted), but I guess I'll do it here. Good stuff, but you're being a bit too optimistic on Logan. He's more likely a .780-.810 OPSer unless he improves those ground ball rates, unless he's the extremely rare guy who can ISO around .180 with a 48% (or higher) GB rate or he's able to hit over .300. And without the power threat, he'll probably get attacked to the point he doesn't hit .300 (but that's just a guess) or walk at such a high rate (again, a guess, but I'd bet his walk rate drops to around 10-12% if the power isn't there) Logan's a career 49.2 GB%, and he's not trending in the right direction (sample size obvi), with 46.7% in 2007, 47.6% in 2008, and 51.2% in 2009. Now yeah, like you said, this isn't necessarily the worst thing, but take a look at the MLB players who had over 48% GB in 2006, 2007, and 2008 (don't like using 2009 b/c of how many games are left): 2006: http://www.fangraphs...on=2006&month=0 2007: http://www.fangraphs...on=2007&month=0 2008: http://www.fangraphs...on=2008&month=0 Now, a list of those with a GB% > 48 and an ISO of .180 or better: 2006: (ended up not doing this, 2008 and 2007 took too long) 2007: 2/26. Vlad (.223 ISO with 48.5 GB and 14.5 FB, but it's Vlad), Torii Hunter (48.8 GB, .218 ISO, 15.1 HR/FB) (Other notables: Jose Guillen had a GB of 48.3 and a 170 ISO for an .813 OPS. Russell Martin had GB of 48.4 and ISO of .176 for OPS of 843. Gary Matthews had 50.8 GB with .167 ISO and 11.8 HR/FB. Kotchman had 50.6 FB with .172 ISO and 8.1 HR/FB) 2008: 3/24. Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips (261 BA, 181 ISO, with 13.2% HR/FB), JJ Hardy (48.4% GB, 283 BA, 195 ISO, 821 OPS) ( (Fred Lewis ISO'd .158 and OPSed .791 with a .282 BA, but his HR/FB rate was lower than Logan's. Still, I guess he shows it's possible in 2008). Still, 3/24 with GB > 48% ISO'd over .180. (I may have missed someone, so you can go back and check. I did this pretty quickly). I mean, I know it's a 2 year sample size, which isn't a tremendous amount. But 5/50 guys have a GB rate over 48% and an ISO over .180. So yeah, 10% chance (exclusive of HR/FB consideration I know), which isn't good. I realize Logan's HR/FB% makes him more likely to put up a solid ISO with such a high GB rate. And that's fine, but at the same time, it's reasonable to assume that when he enters the majors Logan's GB% increases b/c major league pitchers are more likely to attack him that way than by trying to get him to pop up (b/c of his power). And, as you said (and unlike Maybin wiht his high GB%) Logan's not going to be beating out grounders with his speed, and major leaguers suck up more ground infield ground balls with their defense than do minor leaugers. And with the increased GBs, the BABIP drops, and the BA drops, and then the OPS drops. It's probably not unprecedented for a guy to drop his GB% by 5-10% upon entering the majors (which Logan would probalby have to do to OPS in the mid 800's), but I can't imagine it happens often. I mean, maybe it does sometimes. But intuitively I'd guess GB% probably increases upon entering the majors. And still, even if Logan's only ISOing .150-.160 (which I think is more reasonable based on his GB rates and HR/FB rates), he can still OPS ~.825 in those years where he's able to hit ~.290, so long as his walk rates don't drop too much once pitchers see he's not a huge power threat. That's a pretty productive 1B, but at the same time - not the monster 1B everyone's hoping for. Now Logan could always tweak his swing to put the ball in the air more - kind of like what Maybin's staring to do at AAA - but is Pressley the guy to do that? And is it worth counting on Logan tweaking his swing in order to reduce his ground balls? And, seeing as he's a solid bet to be at least league average in terms of 1B, is tweaking his swing with the hope it will produce more fly balls worth it. I guess I don't totally disagree with your projections, just your "most likely case." I don't have the faith that Logan's able to cut down on those ground balls enough to ISO high enough to put up that mid 800s OPS. He's far more likley to fall into the .150-.160 ISO range unless he's part of that 10% that can ISO +.180 with a GB rate of 48% or better. Now, even as a high 700's/low 800's he won't be a disappointment, and he could still be a very useful player. But if people are pretty set on Logan being a mid-high 800's hitter, it's not going to happen unless he changes some thigns in his swing/plate approach so that those GBs drop. And, to be honest, most people will probably be pissed if Logan turns out ot be a low 800's OPS guy, just like they'll be pissed when Maybin's a .770 OPS player and Dominguez doesn't OPS like .850.
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