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MarlinsLou last won the day on January 8 2020

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  1. It pisses off the player - who you haven't had for very long - and sets a precedent to other players you're silly. I am all for negotiating hard and firm, but this amount is stupid. They did great with Villar and Urena (I would have guessed $1.5-2 million more), and maybe gave Conley $100-150k too much. They are well ahead on all of them. Just give the dude $2.45 and call it a day.
  2. There isn’t a discussion. It was a stupid trade at the time of trade by any statistical or financial valuation, and has since gotten worse since Brinson stinks and Yelich got even better, with the caveat there is plenty of time for Isan, Yamamoto, and Monte to put out the dumpster fire. The end.
  3. Big picture - we need to hold the front office to the standard of an actual MLB front office and not be apologetic for giving us a terrible product for almost 15 years. You can buy trading Stanton with a 3 year opt out and being owned $250 million or whatever, which he'd only option if he was hurt so you're fucked either way in losing him or paying him You can buy trading Realmuto with 2 years of control, as it's dicey to give a catcher a deal into his mid 30s if he was extended. They wear down. You can buy trading Ozuna with 2 years of control, because he rejected the same deal Yelich got You can buy trading Dee Gordon and if you want to see me heated, please someone tell me that was dumb 5 years of Yelich and his average salary is under $12 million, coming off two seasons where he averaged a 5 WAR, under 26 years old? We need to stop this nonsense. The rebuild has been pretty fantastic on paper - except they blew the biggest move with Yelich. They gave up so much value at the time of trade it's painful, let alone what's happened since. It set them back at least 1, likely 2, years. That's how good he is and we should hold them to the fire until they make up for it. They haven't yet. Not even remotely.
  4. We have too monetize production and surplus value to be able to assess it. Is it flawed? Absolutely. Is it the best we got? Yes, but I'll be interested in seeing an alternative way if you want to present something. How about this. You have $58 million to spend (Yelich's contract) and you need to produce 25 WAR - that's what Yelich was going to do. Pick MLB FA contracts this offseason. Also, you need to do this over 5 players max (Yelich's year of control) because we can't nickel and dime by scouring for $1-2 million deals because there is IMMENSE value in getting chunk production out of 1 roster slot like Yelich. I'll also let you "trade" for Villar
  5. Who gives a shit about 2018 and 2019? It was a rebuild? They would have a top 20 player in baseball for a contending window right when the rest of the team starts peaking in 21-22. You don't trade these players under any circumstance. Who cares about having some weaker picks in the draft versus one of the top players in the league - and that's before Yelich exploded? Really? Are you serious right now? Do you see what you are typing?
  6. I'm in accord here - bashing them for selling 5 years of Yelich is fair game until they secure another alpha player
  7. I'm going to quibble and say Ozuna is not a star, but he's still really good. The other 3 - and Fernandez - could easily have been the top 4 players on a championship team, with a strong cast of Ozuna, Paddack, L. Castillo, B. Anderson, etc. behind them. Oh wait.....
  8. Well they did get the top prospect (Brinson), but they failed in not getting Hiura instead of Isan and Yamamoto upgraded to Burnes/Woodruff. They blew it. They got the cream of the crop for Cabrera - that trade actually made sense on a value analysis. Maybin and Miller just bombed. This one though stunk from day 1 and is a full blown dumpster fire now Why do you hate agreeing me! What do I do despite get irrational angry at procedural baseball moves!
  9. Thanks for this rabbit hole of despair. Yelich was a 5 WAR player his preceding two years. You can do the whole reasonable valuation based on 2 years of performance and him to an easy $150+ million in surplus. They needed BOTH Hiura over Isan and Burnes. THEN this would have made sense. It's as bad as I thought when starting. They are dumb. And then Yelich got better.
  10. They failed not getting Hiura to upgrade Monte or Isan (+$18 million), or Burnes outright added ($21). That's my position. Need to correct math above* Math is hard when you're furious someone is trying to defend trading Yelich with 5 years of control**
  11. Nope. Here's what happened. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ - Prospect valuation in expected dollars; and https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-miami-marlins/ - Preseason rankings of Brewers kids in 2018 FV60 Brinson - $55 million FV50 - Isan and Monte - $56 million ($28 million each) FV40 - Yamamoto - $1 million =Projected surplus value - $107 million Yelich - 4.1 WAR average his age 22-25 year seasons (before his prime). This is 2014-2017. Surplus value of free agents at the time, we'll call it $8 million (over $9 now). This is $131 million in value. To note, Fangraphs more eloquently had him creating $129.6 million in value. Subtracting some nominal contract costs as a club controlled player, he was over a $120+ million asset for the Marlins. You have to base his future performance off this value. So let's assume Yelich - in his age 26-30 year old seasons (facepalm right there) - would not improve from his past performance. We're talking 5 years of performance - this creates $164 million in value. Subtract his contract ($58.25), and Yelich is worth = $105 million as is. If you assume he'd be better (duh), even a casual analysis can get you closer to $150. We all knew he was going to grow into power. He's closer to $150 versus $105 by any measure of analysis. What's the exact number? I don't know, but somewhere $125-135 is the lower end. So now we're back at the Brewers kids. Did some wrong math, so editing to $107. It's not as bad as I remember, but I suppose my historical view is view Yelich as getting better. You're not betting anything on Yelich's upside here. I think that's a major problem for a guy not having grown into his power. Marlins got smoked from day 1. I reject your alternative facts regarding a revisionist history. I said this day 1, and then the trade got worse. See below.
  12. Who really knows, but all I know on a pure baseball level is, they made a bad trade at the time of trade and you never do that. It doesn't matter as it's done, but we can hope the Brewers guys work out. But Austin Brice is WHATEVA to get back on track. They have many similar arms so it's hard to criticize this one. I reserve criticism for the Paddack level deals, calling up Fernandez to not delay his service time clock, refusing to buyout Cabrera's arbitration, etc. Those are the real stupid ones. None of us are losing sleep over Nick Wittgren, Chris Hatcher, and Grant Dayton.
  13. The what if of having a 6-7 WAR Yelich for 5 seasons out weighs to me Isan and Monte becoming consistent 2 WAR starters. I mean, that would be great if they developed two 2 WAR players, but you still gave up way much even if they are useful. It's a truly mind boggling trade that will never make sense. But I hope Monte goes all Eddie Rosario with plus center field defense on us, and Isan becomes a poor man's Uggla. That would be great.
  14. Those people didn't get it. It was clearly the worst of the Stanton/Ozuna/Yelich/Realmuto moves based on years of control, contract status, and return at the time of trade. The Marlins got killed. Which is really insane as he was the most valuable of all of them - maybe combined.
  15. I agree it wasn't about saving money, but a clubhouse problem is a poor excuse. It's the equivalent of trading a franchise quarterback, not some disgruntled safety, if I may make that analogy. Totally different scenario of having an alpha cornerstone player and not just a really good other outfielder signed for 2 years. It's probably more egregious than not buying out Miguel Cabrera's arbitration in 2004/2005. I honestly think it's the worst move in franchise history.
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