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MarlinsLou

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Posts posted by MarlinsLou

  1. What kind of bad things would happen ?

    It pisses off the player - who you haven't had for very long - and sets a precedent to other players you're silly.

     

    I am all for negotiating hard and firm, but this amount is stupid.

     

    They did great with Villar and Urena (I would have guessed $1.5-2 million more), and maybe gave Conley $100-150k too much. They are well ahead on all of them.

     

    Just give the dude $2.45 and call it a day.

  2. Wow, so they traded Brice.

     

    Whelp, I guess the Yelich discussion can move to this thread now.

    There isn’t a discussion. It was a stupid trade at the time of trade by any statistical or financial valuation, and has since gotten worse since Brinson stinks and Yelich got even better, with the caveat there is plenty of time for Isan, Yamamoto, and Monte to put out the dumpster fire. The end.

  3. Never seen Lou get so heated before.

    Big picture - we need to hold the front office to the standard of an actual MLB front office and not be apologetic for giving us a terrible product for almost 15 years.

     

    You can buy trading Stanton with a 3 year opt out and being owned $250 million or whatever, which he'd only option if he was hurt so you're fucked either way in losing him or paying him

     

    You can buy trading Realmuto with 2 years of control, as it's dicey to give a catcher a deal into his mid 30s if he was extended. They wear down.

     

    You can buy trading Ozuna with 2 years of control, because he rejected the same deal Yelich got

     

    You can buy trading Dee Gordon and if you want to see me heated, please someone tell me that was dumb

     

    5 years of Yelich and his average salary is under $12 million, coming off two seasons where he averaged a 5 WAR, under 26 years old?

     

    We need to stop this nonsense.

     

    The rebuild has been pretty fantastic on paper - except they blew the biggest move with Yelich. They gave up so much value at the time of trade it's painful, let alone what's happened since. It set them back at least 1, likely 2, years. That's how good he is and we should hold them to the fire until they make up for it. They haven't yet. Not even remotely.

    • Like 1
  4. Also, this analysis of player value is deeply flawed. The "surplus value" does not generate $105 M in additional revenue. The Marlins could not cash Yelich in for a check worth $109 M. There is no basis other than an averaging of FA WAR values relative to their contracts. The largest AAV ever on a FA contract was Garrett Cole's $36 M. Is anyone projecting that he will finish with a WAR of 4? Is anyone projecting that Rendon or Strasberg are going to finish with a WAR of under 4?

     

    The reason why 1 WAR is so expensive on average is because of the players that perform dramatically under expectations that weigh down the WAR outputs. Replacing Yelich's production would not cost $105 M more than his contract value.

    We have too monetize production and surplus value to be able to assess it. Is it flawed? Absolutely. Is it the best we got? Yes, but I'll be interested in seeing an alternative way if you want to present something.

     

    How about this. You have $58 million to spend (Yelich's contract) and you need to produce 25 WAR - that's what Yelich was going to do.

     

    Pick MLB FA contracts this offseason. Also, you need to do this over 5 players max (Yelich's year of control) because we can't nickel and dime by scouring for $1-2 million deals because there is IMMENSE value in getting chunk production out of 1 roster slot like Yelich.

     

    I'll also let you "trade" for Villar

  5. Marlins would not have sniffed the playoffs the last 2 seasons even with Yelich. People are hoping for around 70-75 wins this year. Yelich won't make us a playoff team this year

     

    Maybe they get there in 2021 or 2022, but considering it will likely take contributions from Monte, Isan, Yamamoto, and/or Brinson to do so, it would cancel out at least some of Yelich's contributions.

     

    All the while Yelich here would have contributed to wins that would limit the draft pool and likely cost the team Bleday and limit the prospect value from the 2020 draft.

    Who gives a shit about 2018 and 2019? It was a rebuild? They would have a top 20 player in baseball for a contending window right when the rest of the team starts peaking in 21-22. You don't trade these players under any circumstance.

     

    Who cares about having some weaker picks in the draft versus one of the top players in the league - and that's before Yelich exploded? Really?

     

    Are you serious right now? Do you see what you are typing?

  6. Yelich = Star

    Stanton = Star

    Realmuto = Star

    Ozuna = Star

     

    Put them together with a bunch other key guys like Dee Gordon, Justin Bour, and most of the season of Jose Fernandez and you get a 79 win team!

    I'm going to quibble and say Ozuna is not a star, but he's still really good. The other 3 - and Fernandez - could easily have been the top 4 players on a championship team, with a strong cast of Ozuna, Paddack, L. Castillo, B. Anderson, etc. behind them.

     

    Oh wait.....

  7. i hate agreeing with you. So so so much.

     

    marlins not getting the top prospects on the brewer system was criminal.

     

    At least with Cabrera they got the cream of the crop (I think)

    Well they did get the top prospect (Brinson), but they failed in not getting Hiura instead of Isan and Yamamoto upgraded to Burnes/Woodruff.

     

    They blew it.

     

    They got the cream of the crop for Cabrera - that trade actually made sense on a value analysis. Maybin and Miller just bombed.

     

    This one though stunk from day 1 and is a full blown dumpster fire now

     

    Why do you hate agreeing me! What do I do despite get irrational angry at procedural baseball moves!

  8. Thanks for this rabbit hole of despair.

     

    Yelich was a 5 WAR player his preceding two years. You can do the whole reasonable valuation based on 2 years of performance and him to an easy $150+ million in surplus.

     

    They needed BOTH Hiura over Isan and Burnes. THEN this would have made sense.

     

    It's as bad as I thought when starting. They are dumb.

     

    And then Yelich got better.

  9. Nobody at the time of the trade said. The Marlins got a haul of prospects, which was a fair price for a high-ceiling guy who hadn't put it all together yet.

     

    Here's from the FG writeup:

     

    Trades must be assessed based on the information available at the time. It is revisionist and frankly incorrect to paint the trade as a steal at the time.

    Nope. Here's what happened.

     

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ - Prospect valuation in expected dollars; and

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

     

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-29-prospects-miami-marlins/ - Preseason rankings of Brewers kids in 2018

     

    FV60 Brinson - $55 million

    FV50 - Isan and Monte - $56 million ($28 million each)

    FV40 - Yamamoto - $1 million

    =Projected surplus value - $107 million

     

    Yelich - 4.1 WAR average his age 22-25 year seasons (before his prime). This is 2014-2017. Surplus value of free agents at the time, we'll call it $8 million (over $9 now). This is $131 million in value. To note, Fangraphs more eloquently had him creating $129.6 million in value. Subtracting some nominal contract costs as a club controlled player, he was over a $120+ million asset for the Marlins. You have to base his future performance off this value.

     

    So let's assume Yelich - in his age 26-30 year old seasons (facepalm right there) - would not improve from his past performance. We're talking 5 years of performance - this creates $164 million in value. Subtract his contract ($58.25), and Yelich is worth = $105 million as is. If you assume he'd be better (duh), even a casual analysis can get you closer to $150. We all knew he was going to grow into power. He's closer to $150 versus $105 by any measure of analysis. What's the exact number? I don't know, but somewhere $125-135 is the lower end.

     

    So now we're back at the Brewers kids. Did some wrong math, so editing to $107. It's not as bad as I remember, but I suppose my historical view is view Yelich as getting better. You're not betting anything on Yelich's upside here. I think that's a major problem for a guy not having grown into his power.

     

    Marlins got smoked from day 1. I reject your alternative facts regarding a revisionist history. I said this day 1, and then the trade got worse. See below.

  10. It's been said there weren't really that many teams pursuing Yelich at the time though and the Brewers offer might have really been the best of the bunch. So it seems more like the Marlins didn't realize how much more they could get for Yelich and thus rushed into the best return at the moment instead of holding out for more, right?

     

    Compare it to the Realmuto deal where many teams made offers but the Marlins held their ground until the Phillies upped the return at the last moment.

    Who really knows, but all I know on a pure baseball level is, they made a bad trade at the time of trade and you never do that. It doesn't matter as it's done, but we can hope the Brewers guys work out.

     

    But Austin Brice is WHATEVA to get back on track. They have many similar arms so it's hard to criticize this one. I reserve criticism for the Paddack level deals, calling up Fernandez to not delay his service time clock, refusing to buyout Cabrera's arbitration, etc. Those are the real stupid ones. None of us are losing sleep over Nick Wittgren, Chris Hatcher, and Grant Dayton.

  11. I also don't think that all trades should be ruled as far as a winning team and a losing team. The Brewers have won the trade. There is no denying that. It can still be a win-win if the young guys really break out in the next few seasons.

    The what if of having a 6-7 WAR Yelich for 5 seasons out weighs to me Isan and Monte becoming consistent 2 WAR starters.

     

    I mean, that would be great if they developed two 2 WAR players, but you still gave up way much even if they are useful.

     

    It's a truly mind boggling trade that will never make sense. But I hope Monte goes all Eddie Rosario with plus center field defense on us, and Isan becomes a poor man's Uggla. That would be great.

  12. I also find it ironic that the trade that at the time was heralded as the best trade of the off-season from several credible sources is now being seen as a candidate for worst move in team history. Too much confirmation bias going on here.

    Those people didn't get it.

     

    It was clearly the worst of the Stanton/Ozuna/Yelich/Realmuto moves based on years of control, contract status, and return at the time of trade. The Marlins got killed. Which is really insane as he was the most valuable of all of them - maybe combined.

  13. The Yelich trade was not about saving money, it was about moving someone that they thought would be a clubhouse problem. Whether we agree with it or not, that's what it was.

    I agree it wasn't about saving money, but a clubhouse problem is a poor excuse.

     

    It's the equivalent of trading a franchise quarterback, not some disgruntled safety, if I may make that analogy. Totally different scenario of having an alpha cornerstone player and not just a really good other outfielder signed for 2 years. It's probably more egregious than not buying out Miguel Cabrera's arbitration in 2004/2005. I honestly think it's the worst move in franchise history.

  14. You don't have to "win" the trade. You just have to have those players be big parts in giving the Marlins something that Yelich and company could never do. Get to the playoffs. Or at the very least an actual winning season.

    There are tons of hypotheticals - like winning the world series with Urbina - which overcomes an objective analysis, but you don't go into trades to not "win" them.

     

    There is no defense to the Yelich trade. I'll be thrilled if Isan and Monte turn into 2 WAR starters, and Yamamoto chips in 500 innings for the club, but the scale is still tipping for Yelich. They should have never traded him. I don't care about the alleged personality issues - winning cures all and they should be playing to win. They could have done every move the same, sucked for 2 years, and they'd be in a better position right now with Yelich. That matters to me and deserves criticism until they do something to overcome it. That hasn't happened yet.

  15. You're right that it's not a big deal overall, just kind of seems like a careless mistake. For a team that is trying everything to keep Jose Ureña on the roster, there was certainly room for Austin Brice. (and yes, he's better than Hernandez and better than Jarlin too)

    Very debatable. Garcia being a lefty easily vaults him over Brice. Hernandez can pitch more innings so he's likely more valuable, especially with an option left.

     

    Brice will be traded just like Keller. Someone will take him. I can't characterize this as a careless mistake at all.

    • Like 2
  16. That's a lot of ifs as opposed to a known quantity.

     

    I really would be shocked if all 3 of those have that successful of careers, based entirely on probablity.

     

    Normally you would have 1 who would excel, 1 who would be decent, 1 who would be average and 1 that is an utter disaster.

     

    Right now you have 1 utter disaster in Brinson. I was not impressed with Diaz (not in the minors and not really in the MLB). Yamamoto exeeded expectations. Marlins really really need Harrison to be an all star level player to make that trade not be the utter disaster it is so far.

    Isan had a comically low BABIP in his cup of coffee. He'll probably be fine as the walk rate held. The only thing I am concerned about with him is longterm defense at 2B.

     

    The overall problem is, even if Isan and Monte are 2 WAR average starters, you still have a phenomenal gap to Yelich. There is no way they "win" the trade unless someone becomes a star.

  17. The Marlins REALLY need Harrison to not be a disaster in the big leagues.

     

    I didnt want to bring up the Yelich deal because thats just too easy.

    It's easy, but it's also true. They sold low with prospect value, and then it got worse. It's a true disaster of a move.

     

    Wittgren is whatever longterm, but it was dumb.

     

    They need Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto to get to like 30 WAR over their club controlled years to create a push with Yelich. I'm not holding my breath.

  18. I hate that mindset so fucking much.

     

    He wont be a free agent til he is age 30 as it is. Does that extra year really matter if he is going to be 31 then as opposed to 30?

    You gotta play the game. An extra year of service time becomes a major asset if the player works out.

     

    They can never buy out Monte and take him year to year through his prime. That's amazing. Look at George Springer's value to the Astros.

  19. So you have no idea if he can actually handle the position above replacement level. It's one thing to hope and pray that he can fill a position, but anything beyond that is eh.

     

    CF is one of your most important defensive positions, to throw someone out there that has never really played the position is putting your pitchers in a real bad spot. With as much youth as the Marlins staff has, its one of the last things you really need to be doing!

    But you take the gamble as if he's even OK there, you've created a massive trade asset or you keep him.

     

    Of course he has to hit though

  20. Honestly, I think its maybe the stupidest decision this new regime has made and nobody* really called them for it, which makes it just as bad.

     

    *Anyone thats not an armchair fan and has real access to the team

     

    One of the best things to happen to the Marlins is the retirement of Spencer, who was mailing it in for a good 5 years before retiring. This Doonsberry character seems to actually give a damn about reporting on the Marlins so thats nice, as opposed to literally every real writer covering this franchise since Rodriguez's death and Baxter going to LA.

    The stupidest decision this regime will ever make is trading Yelich with 5 years of control for below market value. And that isn't accounting for Brinson failing and Yelich getting better.

     

    But the Wittgren move was really dumb.

    • Like 2
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