Jump to content

MarlinsLou

Members
  • Content Count

    4,022
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    26

Everything posted by MarlinsLou

  1. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Well he's more valuable than Stanton last year, so it will eclipse it. I think it's very arguable JT is more valuable now than Hanley in 2012 (with 2.5 years left on his deal, coming off a .9 WAR injured season and just doing OK in season 2012). Yelich and Cabrera were insanely more valuable.
  2. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    It's hard to say without being privy to negotiations. A lot of teams still need catchers, Harper and Machado are out there. We're not at the point of no return yet. But it's getting closer once some major moves come in from the big boy contenders. It's posturing, and it's annoying to us while we wait. I find it hard to believe no one is going to step up for the only 4+ WAR catcher in baseball, at 28 years old, so I appreciate them holding out. They probably know a bunch of deals they'll take, but are just waiting to see if a desperation overpay comes in until it becomes really necessary to move on. Let's see if Philly signs Machado and the Braves trade for Kluber. That should get the Mets attention real quick.
  3. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Disagree. The Mets will just use their assets, whether keeping them or in trade, and go somewhere else for an upgrade. Realmuto is not the only good player in baseball. You take the best deal period and worry about your own team. That is all you can control.
  4. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    That's probably too much surplus value. That's 10 years of Nimmo and Rosario, for 2 of Realmuto. The AA pitcher would have to be a "Gallen or Yamamoto" (i.e., not worth much on a trade market even if a legitimate arm, a FV45/40 prospect). The Marlins would also have to include probably Rojas AND Conley/Wittgren to get it to reasonable value all around. There are a lot of permutations, but it's probably something like: Rosario/Nimmo/Conforto Gimenez, or if you get Rosario above, Alonso/Petersen Depending on who you get above, Petersen/Dunn/Kay/Szapucki/Kilome/Other Arm they like Nido And then depending on what foursome you get above, the Marlins are throwing in Rojas if you get Rosario for sure, probably Conley or Wittgren (Steckenrider would be too much) no matter what the spread is, and maybe the Marlins take on some/all of Lagares salary to give the Mets some salary relief. Personally, I can pass on Rosario and go to Gimenez, so I like this: Nimmo Gimenez literally anyone of Alonso/Petersen/Dunn/Kay/Szapucki/Kilome/Other arm they like more, preferably a lefty Nido Lagares, and TBD of how much money they would absorb For Realmuto and Rojas, and maybe you throw in Wittgren just to get it done. That is really solid value for Realmuto, and throw-ins that don't matter to the Marlins longterm. I'm not saying the Atlanta prospects aren't better (they very likely are), but I'm just saying they can do a deal with the Mets without Rosario. Hell, you can probably even kick Nimmo out and take Alonso and two of those laundry list pitchers after him. They have the juice, but I appreciate the Marlins holding out to the last possible minute to try and hit the grand slam.
  5. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    I missed that, but high five? Maybe it's the Bonafacio avatar.
  6. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    I'm pretty confident they will. He is insanely valuable. The best catcher in baseball, coming off a huge breakout season, at 28 years old, with non-guaranteed salaries past 2019, leverage to buy out his prime because he's 2 years from free agency, at the toughest physical position so he will take the buyout, and the rest of the NL East going bananas acquiring guys to pit the Braves and Mets against each other. I think we'll be happy about this one. Yelich will still be the only wart.
  7. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Realmuto is clearly more valuable than both of them to anyone who has a clue. Especially since a team getting him probably gives him the 5/$80-85 deal he'll accept, increasing some surplus value that presently doesn't exist. It's fine to sign him for 5 or trade him. Either is a good situation. Only dumb one is to do nothing. If the Mets refuse to move Rosario (which is understandable), I only see one real trade permutation that works: Nimmo or Conforto Gimenez Alonso or D. Petersen Nido Lagares - and Marlins eat the $9 million of his salary to get it done. Marlins flip him at the deadline. Marlins ship out Realmuto, Rojas, and one of Conley or Wittgren in a 5-3. And if the Mets need to dump more payroll (to sign Pollock, or their dream Machado or Harper), I think the Marlins can take on D'Arnaud and maybe send back Dean, because the Mets could use some bench help in the OF and don't need redundant backup catchers. Another guy for the Marlins to flip at the deadline. Taking on the payroll in 2019 means nothing to Miami to get longterm players. It's a little messy given the Mets personnel, versus easier permutations with Houston/Atlanta/Dodgers, but it could work if this is the best deal. I'd be beyond fine getting the SS, 1B, and backup C of the future, and having excess outfielders to trade for more pitching at some point.
  8. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    5/$70 is where they should have started, not the "third" offer. 5/$80 is the sweet spot for everyone, which has been a broken record for half a year. Maybe you go to $85 to pay an incompetence Marlins front office tax for offering such BS initial offers (and fighting him in arbitration last year for $600k), but past that it's, no thanks. He's not worth more than that and trade him to a team he will sign that exact deal with.
  9. Because it allows them to keep -whoever- down in the minors for 120+ innings until the deadline, which helps long term development and potentially costs if it deflects a super2/arbitration year. Plus, if he pitches like 2013, 2016, or 2017, you get a decent arm prospect or two at the deadline to add to the longterm stable of relievers. Or, if he is awesome, you just keep him for 2020. An obvious tender. Dietrich you can probably replace with guys like Davidson or Flores (or Bour) who were also just non-tendered. You're not finding an arm like Straily for $4-5 million and a non-guaranteed option year in 2020.
  10. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    Yep. He's probably due 5/$85 right now in an arbitration buyout. In certain situations, he could probably just get over $100 on a 6 year deal with a team that is building around him. In two years when he is entering his age 30 season, and assuming he has still produced 4+ WAR seasons the last two years, I can see him getting over $100 million on a 5+ year deal. But it's not going to be astronomically over that. Catcher longevity is going to prevent him from getting a 9 year deal like Buster. Even if Realmuto has the physique to hold up better than most catchers, I don't anyone take on that risk. It's what we all know, he doesn't want to be here. The Marlins know the comps. Realmuto knows the comps. Realmuto has made around $5 million in his entire career, and will make $6-7 million in arbitration this year more than likely. I don't see him turning down literally 7 times that amount in a 5 year deal to completely secure his future and be a free agent again at a reasonable age 33 season. That is just a stupid life decision, and he should see things like Ozuna having a massive downgrade in production as a problem at securing future money. They should make a very public 5/$85 offer and trade him if he doesn't accept it. Either situation is fine. And then when he signs the same deal with the Astros, who cares. Get players with years of control and unapologetically keep making baseball moves.
  11. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    None, but let's not bring up Maybin and Miller
  12. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto updates and rumors

    That is an irrelevant exercise for two reasons. How many wins does a player contribute wherever they are? The position doesn't matter. Mike Trout is more important than Buster Posey. If you want to debate equal level players, such as Realmuto versus say Benintendi, you would of course take the catcher and defer to position scarcity in such a scenario. That's a different question. Contract issues DO matter. If the Marlins got Tucker, in 2021 they will be paying him $600k and have $20 million in extra money (as that is how much a free agency Realmuto year will cost, and that's the low end). I'll take Tucker and $20 million. Although, I am fine if they give Realmuto 5/$80-85 at the same time. Either is a good situation to be in.
  13. I understand the sarcasm, however to the gallery of fans who don't really see the big picture running through a fleeting message board post and don't follow the transactions, the Marlins did in fact go over-slot on the 2018 draft as a whole (basically, they got Banfield signed for an extra $1 million). That, plus signing VVM, are huge new developments to building the team out. Even if those two guys don't pan out, the process of what they are doing here is important. They should be commended for going after those two guys in particular. Good organizations do things like that. You eventually hit on them and the team starts getting built out. That's what I'm interested in personally. No one will remember if they lose 94 or 101 next year if they turn this ship around.
  14. A bit dramatic. They are going to lose 90-105 easily, but who cares? Both are bad numbers. It's a rebuild (despite whatever they want to call it). As for laughingly bad, they gave Holaday, Prado, Rivera, Ortega, Shuck, and Sierra about 950 PA last year and they rewarded the Marlins with -4 WAR. That's pathetic. Let's lob in Brinson who increases those numbers to 1350 PA and a -5 WAR. You're talking a 5 win improvement if the combination of Brinson and whoever they get to replace those PA are replacement level players. I find this likely as this was really exceptionally epically bad and even if Brinson is not what we all want, he's not that bad. This essentially mitigates against Realmuto being traded instantly. No one else on the team overachieved besides probably Anderson. Dietrich, Bour, Maybin, and Galloway (combined around 2.5 WAR over 1300 something PA eyeballing it) is not a big deal. There is player progression coming from the kids to deflect against that, plus they'll sign an OF or catcher to help. It's going to be the same projection as last year, +/- 100 games. It's going to be bad, but not historic 2003 Tigers bad. I say who cares. Keep unapologetically make baseball moves and build a longterm winner. Feel free to criticize the players they get (the Yelich deal looks awful, etc.), but 1 year into cleaning up Loria's mess, the process of what they are doing matters. Process wise, everything besides Yelich makes sense to me or is so minor (releasing Dietrich) it doesn't really matter. So they didn't get another RP arm for him? Whatever? Let's hope they go overslot on the draft again and keep hammering IFA. That's the focus to me. Let's hope Realmuto is cashed in for a good package. Let's hope Castro and Conley turn into good young players at the deadline or earlier. Let's hope they find another Uggla in the Rule V. Let's hope they get another Cody Ross for $1.
  15. MarlinsLou

    What happens this offseason?

    It's important to note that: Urena has 1.5 WAR in 138 IP Smith 1.2 in 77 IP Richards 1.1 in 90.1 iP Pablo .3 in 47 IP Straily averaged a 1.5 basically 2016/2017 when he wasn't hurt, and will only be 30. This isn't confusing anyone with the Indians, but they might have two-three 2+ WAR pitchers (ideally Caleb and Richards hit their peak with the best stuff of the lot and being club controlled), and two-three 1.5 type guys. There is something to be said of having a solid, let's say, 800-900 innings thrown collectively here of solid mid-rotation innings. That's worth exploring to see if someone takes off, and gives them a fighting chance with an above average bullpen (hopefully).
  16. MarlinsLou

    What happens this offseason?

    I have been thinking about this lately with Straily. I think he could be a non-tender, but he's not going to cost more than $4 million at the same time, and that's still real value if he turns back into 2016/2017 where he was objectively a pretty good 4th SP. I don't think they need to sign any pitchers. Assuming that Alcantara is in the pen, and they trade Barraclough (which I think is a given): SP - Urena, Straily, Smith, Richards, Pablo (Neidert, Gallen, and Yamamoto looming) RHP - Steckenrider, Alcantara, Guerrero, Wittgren, and let's say Brigham (Merandy, Hernandez, Meyer, and Kinley on 40 man for call ups, and Guzman looming) LHP - Conley, Chen, Garcia (Quijada and Peters on 40 man for call ups) That is plenty of arms. Churn through all of them and see who sticks. Of course, if some magical cheap signing like an Eovaldi presents itself, go for it.
  17. MarlinsLou

    What happens this offseason?

    Fangraphs agrees with you so you're not wrong - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=18289&position=3B/OF#fielding I still think you put him at 3B though and if "in a season, give or take" he isn't better, you can always kick him to the OF then. It's not like he is blocking anyone at 3B or RF at the moment, or will forget how to play defense in RF.
  18. MarlinsLou

    Trade Deadline Approaching

    It's pretty easy. Definitely move - Barraclough, Dietrich, Ziegler, Maybin, and Castro. First two are having great years for who they are so max out their value as they aren't in a longterm contending plan. Ziegler is part salary dump, part he's been good for the last 6+ weeks and get whatever. Maybin is whatever, clear some space for Dean/Ortega/Sierra/Cooper/Lee/Brinson(DL) and let the kids play. Castro is also part salary dump to get him off the books for next year, and probably get 2 half decent prospect lottery tickets. Rojas and Riddle can man the middle with Diaz primed for an early 2019 call up. Untradeable - Prado, Chen. Obviously eat all the monies to get rid of them Move if you get a beneficial package - Realmuto, Bour, Rojas, Straily, Urena, Conley. These guys value isn't changing between now and the winter when you figure out new contract statuses. No reason to move them without obvious replacements, but if you get a positive deal, sure go for it now. As to Realmuto, only entertain discussions if it is 100% determined he won't take a 4-5 year deal after this season. Don't move - Steckenrider. Is controlled for 5 seasons, this isn't worth it. They need to be keeping guys like this who can blossom into very high end relievers for a long time of control. I considered putting Conley here, but he hits arbitration next year and starts getting a little expensive versus only showing 2 good months as a reliever.
  19. MarlinsLou

    Brinson makes opening day roster

    "Uh"
  20. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    Ozuna was offered an extension and turned it down, no guarantee they take it. Gotta preserve the year.
  21. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    Braves sent down Acuna today. Marlins need to stop being idiots, plain and simple.
  22. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    I think you're missing the point. Being a Super 2 is irrelevant. Having another year of control is what matters. If you call him up May 8th (give or take a day), he will end the season with under 1 year of service time. It'll be about .171 days of service time (172 being a full year. League calendar year is 182 days, so they build in a freebie 10 days there). End of 2018, .171 days End of 2019, 1.171 days End of 2020, 2.171 days, Arb 1 as a Super 2 for 2021 End of 2021- 3.171, Arb 2 End of 2022 - 4.171, Arb 3 End of 2023 - 5.171. This is what is being argued. He does not have 6 years of service time. You have control for 2024 as he is under 6 years, and he gets a 4th year of arbitration year. End of 2024 - 6.171 - Free Agency Yes, this is literally how you are reading this - he is not a free agent by 1 day. If you're wondering, Kris Bryant has 2.171 days of service time right now. Cubs did this exact plan with him. If Brinson is up before May 8th, give or take, he gets to 6 years by the end of 2023 and you don't get him in 2024. I agree, it would be ridiculous to keep him down until July to avoid being a Super 2, but these next 6 weeks dictate if you get him in 2024 or not. It's a big deal. This concept also applies to Anderson, Peters, Alcantara, J. Garcia, and Conley, but is most important with Brinson as the # 1 asset in the organization at this time.
  23. MarlinsLou

    Fangraphs Top 29 for the Marlins

    A few position player starters, some with big upside, a stellar future bullpen, and skeptical SP. Sounds about right. Practically, if the lineup in 2020 has Brinson, Harrison, Sierra, Anderson, and Diaz in it, with B. Lee, Riddle, and Cooper on the bench, god willingly Alcantara as a 2/3 SP, they get three more 3/4/5 types out of Urena, Neidert, D. Peters, J. Garcia, Ca. Smith, and pick your favorite lesser SP fringe prospect, and get the radical bullpen of say Guzman, Steckenrider, Wittgren, Gallen, Yamamoto, etc., they are going to be in really good shape. Also important to note Realmuto, Bour, Castro, Prado, Dietrich, Maybin, Straily, Ziegler, and Barraclough are going to turn into at least 1 awesome, 4-6 decent, and 6+ lottery tickets to add to the list. They really need to keep hammering getting up the middle players (C, 2B, SS) and SP and all should work out (on paper).
  24. MarlinsLou

    Conley, Peters, Garcia among cuts

    Despaigne looks pretty good, and this is starting to feel to me Ca. Smith gets the # 4 spot because of his Yankees pedigree (and getting a lefty look in rotation). That's fine. The team needs a 5th starter about 5 times until May 15th. I think they should go with a 4 man rotation and have 5 built in bullpen days. They can easily figure that out, especially because you can option up and down someone. Straily, Urena, Despaigne, Ca. Smith (Chen DL) Ziegler, Barraclough, Steckenrider (Wittgren DL) O'Grady, Tazawa, J. Turner, E. Hernandez, Nicolino, and pick a guy on the 40 man, let's go with T. Guerrero. Best case scenario is still signing a veteran innings eater (Hellickson?), pushing Ca. Smith to the bullpen, and Smith/O'Grady are guys with an option left if they need a fresh arm (Peters, Conley, Garcia) to call up and down, or just start the DFA's with Nicolino if he doesn't figure it out.
  25. MarlinsLou

    Dimelo, Miami

    Didn't click, is there a place I can get on a soapbox about service time
×

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.