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MarlinsLou

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Everything posted by MarlinsLou

  1. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    I think you're right. They probably know a package they will take from multiple teams, but are holding out for someone to panic (i.e., if Philly signs Machado or Bryce) knowing they can always fallback onto it because it's not like JT isn't desirable. This isn't Castro we're talking about who is good, but has limited appeal. Once Manny, Bryce, Grandal, Pollock, Keuchel, etc. sign, Realmuto will be the best person available, and Robinson Chirinos, Mike Zunino, and Brian McCann aren't preventing a JT deal from going down
  2. MarlinsLou

    2018-2019 Off-Season Thread

    Riddle hit a solid .248/.304/.403 against RHP (overall .653, he can't hit lefties), had a .266 BABIP, and is fantastic defensively. There is real upside here if he upticks offensively a little bit. Even if it's just against RHP. That BABIP is encouraging. They should let him play and not block him with a veteran. If he can get to a .700 OPS overall, he's probably a 2 WAR player with the defense.
  3. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    I disagree, any downtick in production from Realmuto (this includes pacing as a 3.5 WAR player) lowers his value based on production, and amount of service time (games) an acquiring team gets. He's not making enough money to have the Marlins covering April-July money sway things. It was a gamble not to extend him or trade him prior to 2018 in a rebuild situation. Don't count on hitting pocket aces twice in a row. It's 5/$80 or trade him to me. Nothing else. They'll get the value for him, I am assuming they are just holding out as Bryce/Machado/Grandal/Keuchel/Pollock/Grandal are still out there and someone could be desperate if they whiff on everyone.
  4. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    If the Marlins got Riley, Newcomb, Camargo, Pache, and Fried for Realmuto and Conley, it would be a heist for the Marlins. I think you just need to get value, I don't care if it's 2 guys or 4. Just get it to a place where you will probably profit by turning some of these prospects into MLB players. But don't fuck up the main guy. You really can't do that again, like they did with Yelich unless something amazing happens. They need to get, minimum, another Anderson out of this as the main guy (and I'm talking the 3+ WAR 2018 Anderson, not the projected moving forward 2-2.5 WAR Anderson).
  5. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    Ruiz/Smith, May, Downs/Lux, and a throw in outside their top 15 prospects makes a lot of sense.
  6. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    The answer is (hell) yes for who he is, but all things considered he isn't throwing consistently/much over 90 MPH and is beating hitters with finesse, control, deception, and an abnormal spin rate (credit to him for having that trait) which limits some harder contact here and there. The league typically catches up to these type of guys as Acuna, Albies, and Freeman aren't going to be phased by this type of stuff, versus having to deal with 70 grade fastballs, sliders, and changeups. A good example may be Marlins former prospect Yusmiero Petit, who absolutely dominated A+/AA and then turned into a basically middling reliever at the MLB level (albeit credit to him, he got better the middle stages of his career). Nothing is wrong with that, and that is a great result for a 4th guy throw in in a deal. It's just going to be unlikely he is more than a 6th inning middle reliever, or maybe a moderate 5th starter a few years. But maybe he turns into a poor man's Greg Maddox and everyone is wrong. In any event, I like him and hope he gets to that backend starter projection, but I'm really happy if he turns into a 4th RHP for the bullpen. That'll be good to hold or trade depending on how everyone else works out.
  7. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    I don't disagree with you here for the most part. Let me try and say this another way, I think the Marlins between (A) all the guys they currently have that will be MLB ready by 2021; and (B) everyone you want to trade off the MLB team besides Realmuto; are the makings of a pretty solid players 6-25 on a MLB roster that will be very cheap. They need to get probably 5 guys who are better than Anderson (who I think we'd all agree is probably the best longterm player they have right now): Realmuto Asset # 1 Major FA 1 Major FA 2 Trading 2018/2019/2020/Future IFA players for a 2021 win now player Realmuto Asset # 2 / Someone else breaking out into a 3.5+ WAR player, like Monte or Brinson That's the blueprint. I think they will have the rest figured out.
  8. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    Bad at the time of trade, and worse after 2018 (but that's obvious as Yelich got even better than expected and the Brewers outfielders each feel down a peg). I'd have given Yelich $150 million in surplus value prior to the trade, and at the time of trade, Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto probably totaled around $125+ in value. They should have gotten Monte/Diaz upgraded to Hiura, or Yamamoto upgraded to Burnes, or maybe 1-2 other guys (like Brett Phillips) thrown in, etc. I hated it day 1, and now I mega-loathe it.
  9. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    TLDR - Don’t fuck up Realmuto trade and pray they spend money on FA for 2021 I have no answer for getting people excited about a total rebuild. You have to be a baseball nerd to appreciate what is happening and how little victories - like going over-slot for Banfield, getting a lucky 3rd rounder in Pompey, acquiring some nominal RHP relievers in back to back years in the Rule5, getting Ca. Smith for a nominal prospect, winning the Phelps trade, getting Richards from the independent leagues, etc. - are eventually going to turn into some real value for the team in years. I am a full on believer in the "Sam Hinkie" rebuild philosophy. Burn it all down until you can be good again. I know that doesn't help short term ticket sales, which definitely cuts against being unapologetic to build a winner, but the end goal is to build a winner so that's how I roll. In any event, I think it's actually a low level of moving parts. It really boils down to "get a good package for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, and Straily when you inevitably trade them." If we do the basic math on the assets that they have, what I'm basically saying is, I think they will have 9+ WAR in 6 position players by 2021, I think they'll have 5+ WAR in 3 SP, and 6+ WAR in relievers. Of course, tinker that up or down among each positional group to 20+ WAR which I think is an acceptable goal. Hitters Anderson - 2.2 WAR projection in 2019 (644 PA) (Note, 3.4 WAR in 2018) Call these guys bench options (longterm basis). Current projections extrapolated to bench PA Brinson - .6 (350/PA) or Dean - .8 (350/PA) Riddle - .7 (350/PA) Cooper - .6 (350/PA) I don’t think we’re asking a lot here for Diaz and VVM to turn into 2+ WAR starters by 2021, or likewise, them not working out and Monte and/or Brinson do work out and become (at least) a low-end 2+ WAR starter on defense/dingers, or if those bench options fail, someone like Sierra or Harold Ramirez working out, or Anderson keeping his 2018 performance. This isn’t great at all, but collectively, if they get 3 starters and 3 bench players out of this producing 9+ WAR, this is starting to form the basis of a CHEAP (important concept is saving money) and solid supporting cast which is all my point is here. Pitchers So then you get to the starting pitching, and assume your 3/4/5 SP can get you 5+ WAR combined. In 2018, Urena, Ca. Smith, and Richards produced 4.4 WAR in 377 innings (well below the innings of what three SP would throw). They might already have this threshold met. Practically, I think I’m averaging this very low considering Neidert looks to be a better prospect than everyone here, Urena took a big step forward this year, and the likelihood that one of Alcantara/Ca. Smith/Richards/Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto works out into at least a good 4/5 SP is high. They all likely won’t fail. In any event, Urena/Pablo/Richards/Ca. Smith this season are projected to have a 3.7 WAR in 464 innings. If you extrapolate that up to 600 innings (i.e., 3 SP), you’re at 4.8 and basically already at this hypothetical threshold I'm debating. I think this is very safe to assume they will get 3 guys here producing a combined 5 WAR in the rotation. I guess you can call that a moving part, but this is a really really low projection. So this gets you to the bullpen. This is where I think I may side with you, but I have cautious optimism. A middle of the pack bullpen is 3.5+ WAR, and an elite bullpen is 6+ WAR. The Marlins need to develop an elite one. The Yankees have averaged over 8 WAR the last 3 seasons, and I don’t think I need to point out who built that bullpen which is where my leap of faith is here. I believe that Denbo/team are really focusing on this and rebuilding the Yankees bullpen down in Miami. When we look at what the pen could look like without needing these guys as starters (Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Holloway, Richards, Ca. Smith, Quijada, and Garcia as the first tier, and a second tier of Anderson, Brigham, Ferrell, Merandy, Gallen, Guerrero, Hernandez, Keller, Yamamoto, Duggers, Beggs, Eveld, Mills, etc.), I think that’s A LOT of guys to figure out 7-8 good arms. I think this is going to be closer to 6 than 3.5 by 2021, even if this falls short. So that's where, shift up the bats or SP a little, shift down the bullpen a little, and we're at 17 players/roughly $42 million (and $16 of that is a final Chen payment)/20+ WAR expectation. I mean, that sucks if you think about it. Their best assets internally (for 2021, basically ignoring 2018 draft) taking away just a few guys, is a probably a 20 WAR team absent something amazing happening. That's just not that great. But, they can trade Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc., they can spend money in 1-2 seasons, and they can unload prospect inventory in 2021 to get another win now player (ala the Brewers). Yea, that is moving parts and a lot of things could go wrong, but a lot of things could go right too. We'll see. This makes total sense to me on paper. They really have to crush the Realmuto trade.
  10. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    He'd probably be a good third piece next to Ruiz/Smith and May for Realmuto. Also makes sense for them to unload Verdugo, Ruiz/Smith/Barnes, and arms for Kluber. Dodgers have the juice to really get stacked.
  11. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    He'd probably be a good third piece next to Ruiz/Smith and May for Realmuto. Also makes sense for them to unload Verdugo, Ruiz/Smith/Barnes, and arms for Kluber. Dodgers have the juice to really get stacked.
  12. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    Yes. JT is from Oklahoma also (OKST commit before he signed). Houston is basically as close as you can get. He'd be very happy.
  13. MarlinsLou

    2018-2019 Off-Season Thread

    This is the only path to getting over .500 by 2021, but for incredible multiple breakouts. Also the best free agent for the team (presuming Realmuto doesn't turn into a SS) is Xander next year. They may need to spend 1 year early (ala Werth) to get a guy that makes sense for the team, as 2021 is all pitching and not impact bats like Xander.
  14. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    If he becomes a legit # 3 (call it an average 2.5 WAR pitcher for 5 years), it's highway robbery. You're talking about an easy $70-80 million in surplus value with that kind of player on an intro contract. Ozuna was worth maybe $45 million at best for two years (and he produced under this in 2018, which we will ignore for purposes evaluating at the time of trade). If Alcantara contributes 5 WAR as a reliever over his club controlled years and Gallen does a Tom Koehler impression and drops 800-1,000 solid innings before getting phased out, call this another 5 WAR, you break even. If you get any sort of breakout, i.e. if either turns into a 1.5-2 WAR starter for a few years (a #4) or Alcantara goes HAM and becomes a 1.5+ WAR reliever (top 30-40 overall reliever in baseball), or Sierra turns into a 1 WAR poor man Jarrod Dyson bench outfielder (which isn't out of the realm of possibility), you win that trade (unless Ozuna drops something huge like a 5 WAR year in 2019). In their defense, FG gave Sierra a FV50 last year based on his Dyson level defensive potential and base running, but obviously that torpedo'd. Just like Brinson, he is young, and gets the age-mulligan. He's not even 23 today. There may be real backup potential there if the defense holds up and he starts hitting .250. His BABIP was terrible last year. A correction and not being a jerk in the OF fixes things fast. Also, don't make me do an analysis for Yelich as to what the breakeven is for Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto. It's depressing. (It's basically a collective 30+ WAR for all 4 of those guys club controlled years. That's a breakeven, not a "win." It's terrible.)
  15. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    I would be all over that. They have good secondary pieces (Pint, Nevin) so a deal can work out if the Rockies want to go all in. Give'em a reliever.
  16. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    The execution for pre-2018 was "Loria." It's tough to use that as a baseline with the meddling. Yelich trade looks like a disaster so that's all we have to work on now. Gordon, Ozuna, and Stanton were fine. Those were never going to be radical needle movers. So are they going to mess up Realmuto? That's a big question we'll have to see. He's more valuable than Gordon, Ozuna, and Stanton, and if they drop another Yelich, whoever is in charge (Hill) needs to go.
  17. MarlinsLou

    Miami Marlins Top 32 Prospects

    Devers is a FV45 prospect, you're not getting that in the 20th+ round. That is a twice in a decade draft pick luck. Stanton would have opted out., and destroyed the team's payroll in 5-6 years if he didn't. Guzman is being worked as a starter to get innings, and is presumably ending in the bullpen. I don't think a small sample size WHIP tells us who he is. Let him throw, and let the bullpen conversion happen in 2020 (or earlier) if it's clear it's a failed experiment. (I find that likely, which is OK. A good reliever is a fine result.) Castro is fine. In fact, I think they should maybe extend him for a 4/$50 type of deal starting this year, so I'm not sure where your head is with him. Check out his BB/Hard Hit rate improvements. He may be a buy low right now entering his middle prime years. You're only making one point here - they whiffed on the Yelich trade. They did horribly, even if Brinson/Monte/Diaz work out (you're also selling Diaz particularly low by the way, FG just said they think he's a probable high floor 2+ WAR starter). We can criticize the living hell out of the Yelich deal, but everything past that wasn't an objectively bad move. Gordon wasn't producing what his salary was paying, and it looks like they hit gold with Neidert. Ozuna was not nearly as valuable as everyone thought. Yea, Alcantara, Sierra, and Gallen are disappointing thus far, it happens. Trades don't work out, but the idea of moving Ozuna wasn't the problem. Stanton getting hurt would have practically ended the franchise if he opted in as a loss. Look at how radical Chen/Prado is impacting the team? How about this in 2021: C - ______, ______ 1B - _______, Cooper 2B - Diaz SS - _______, Riddle 3B - Anderson LF - ________ CF - VVM, Brinson (let's assume he becomes Michael Taylor and Monte fails) RF - ________ SP - ______, _______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (assume all the top rated RHP arms turn into relievers) LHP - _______, Ca. Smith, Quijada (Dead Money - Chen) That's $42 million dollars in 2021, and probably about 20 WAR. Add to this trade returns for Realmuto, Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Rojas, Wittgren, etc. You're adding 4-6 more guys to the above, all club controlled, and that's probably moving this to $45 million/30 WAR territory (you're going to get some good guys for those first 3 in particular, of course they could bomb like the Yelich guys, but chances are you don't whiff that big twice). You're back to a .500 ballclub. Now add $40-50 million in payroll on 2-3 major free agents. Cite Wolverine budgets. AND THEN, since your entire team is club controlled for 3+ years, pick 4-5 guys in the minors to trade from this: 2018 draft class (Scott, Osiris, Banfield, Pompey), 2019 Draft class (# 4 overall, two additional early 2nd rounders), 2020 Draft class (likely another top 5 pick and early second rounder), multiple former first rounders (Garret, Rogers), Devers, international free agents (as they are spending again), and anyone else who wants to break out (Miller, Nelson, Dunand, Torres, etc.). The Marlins can do exactly what the Brewers did - trade 3-4 guys and go out and get a Yelich, or Segura, or Andujar, or a Realmuto, or a Kluber, or a Paxton, etc., and really put that cherry on top of the next good Marlins team. Their prospect capital is probably enormous here with the early picks coming. Criticize the Yelich deal A LOT. Putting a 4 WAR Brinson/Monte on top of that team would radically help. But past that, I'm not sure how this is a bad plan in theory. The team sucked. An immediate turnaround wasn't to be expected, even if the Marlins had a good half dozen assets at the MLB level.
  18. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    Value is value. The other teams could likely beat the Astros with 1 better prospect involved if Tucker/Whitley are off the table, but something like Alvarez, Martin, Nova, and Stassi/Stubbs easily gets you to around $65 million in surplus value. That's around where it should be. A lot of permutations from there, with the Marlins being able to throw in Steckenrider, Conley, and/or Straily, all useful to Houston, and/or absorbing Reddicks $26 million (they dont need with Tucker/Springer/Brantley/Kemp/Straw), and/or Houston throwing in more guys not in their top 10 prospects, who are still quality farm pieces to develop, and raise the value for the Marlins. I still like them, but we'll see. If we're assuming some sort of deal, it would be nice for the Marlins to get their longterm 1B, a longterm 3/4 SP, the best SS in their system, a longterm backup catcher, let's say a longterm lefty reliever, and be able to use Reddick until you flip him at the deadline. That fits nicely into a longterm depth chart.
  19. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    I agree. That's why they need to cash in Steckenrider or Conley to them (or take on Reddick's contract). They need some icing on the cake to include Martin as player # 2. Tucker, Nova, Stassi/Stubbs, and some other outside top 15-20 prospect definitely works 4-1 for Realmuto too, but I feel there is an opportunity to give the contending club a bullpen piece they want/need.
  20. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    They are incentivized financially to keep Whitley in the minors past the Super2 deadline. Also, Astros lost a reliever for a large chunk of the season today. They are a great spot to move a well above average arm like Steckenrider or bullpen-Conley
  21. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    James is likely in their rotation right now and already got to the bigs, so I find that unlikely. Bukauskas is a smaller framed starter who the Marlins (Hill) have historically not been interested in. I don't think he's the guy. I think they'd want Martin as the second piece, and some collection of Nova, Perez/Valdez (i.e., a lefty reliever. I know they are smaller, but figure they'd be OK if they got a bigger framed started like Martin and this is a 3rd/4th piece), Stassi/Stubbs (backup C), etc. I'd kick in Conley and ask for Tucker, Martin, Nova, Valdez, and Stassi, and agree to take on Reddick's salary if they want to dump him and use that money to sign Cruz or a SP.
  22. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    They should acquire a club controlled, at least backup, catcher for a few years just to help with the budget. But it may make more sense to sign a veteran catcher here and there until guys on the farm are ready. Two of the best half dozen prospects in the 2019 MLB draft are catchers also. There is a good chance they double down and take one at # 4 if they are available.
  23. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    Maldonaldo would be a pretty good 1 year stopgap for the Marlins Just saying
  24. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    No, too much. 5/$80, maybe $85.
  25. MarlinsLou

    Realmuto traded to Phillies

    Rosario was 22 last year (1.5 WAR) and better than a 29 year old Rojas (1). Rojas is an excellent bench player, Rosario has major breakout potential and could become something like Didi/Segura real quick. Marlins would be lucky to get him in a package. He'd be the best player in the Marlins organization IMO.
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