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Posts posted by Nny

  1. Yeah that Miggy shit is fucked up same with the Kobe shit that was swept under the rug. Not seeing the correlation here


    The correlation is in who's bad (people who only "damage" themselves, and not even that with PED) and who's not (people who damage others, but it's okay because they're good at sportsball [this is at least changing now after the Rice incident, thankfully]). No that doesn't hold vacuously, but you can't deny it in the grand scheme of social perception.


    Personally I think PED being banned is stupid. Stupid old america butt hurt olympic shit. You can make an arguement "well it's against the rules" but so much shit in baseball goes against the rules but it's okay because everyone does it or some stupid shit



  2. PED being banned is kind of stupid and I hold no ill will towards him. So much "cheating" happens in baseball, and so much of that is the whole unspoken rules and all that shit.


    I didn't like the extension (you don't give slap hitters coming off career years multi years), but I'm not goign to hodl that against him.


    He's hit the ball int he air a LOT this year, so wonder if that has anything to do with it. Trying to be more than he was.



  3. Kendry has been okay in New Orleans. Brice, Esch, and Jarlin in Jax. Nothing special though.


    I'm not privy to changes or adjustments or anything, but Brice has always been a sleeper prospect since he was drafted and he's doing great this year. 3 zero walk games in 4 starts so far this year. He had one all of last year.


    Still early and who knows what happens but he could be in the start of a break out year and holy god do we need that to happen



  4. I also loved this bit about Andrew Friedman


    "consistently preaching the value of depth, refusing to acknowledge public panic, emphasizing the long-term sustainability of the organization while still competing in the present"


    The Marlins have been the complete antithesis to every single one of those. :high5



  5. Going by history, they'll trade him prior to next season. Cabs, D-Train, Hanley, Beckett, and Lee were all traded with two years remaining of club control/contract. JJ is only guy I can think of they traded with only one year left, and that was a special case with the new stadium.


    However, I don't think they trade him until after next year. The next two years are this core's competition window. They're still cheap with holes that are pretty easy to fill (if they were willing to spend resources). As we can see with how much trading away Lee and Cabs hurt us during those competition windows, I'm hoping they learn from those mistakes.


    2018 is not just the last season of Jose, but also Ramos, Capps, and Hech (they did at least re-up Dee). I think they're banking on Chen opting out prior to considering he'd only make $10m that year, and Stanton's contract balloons. We're currently looking at a $120m payroll that year, if they make no changes. Prior to 2018 is when the firesale "rebuild" is, so it makes the most sense to wait until then.


    It's nice rooting for a team where the fan discussion is when best it'll be to trade away your star player.



  6. To give you an idea how bad Realmuto has been so far:


    He's third in baseball in GB%. Which isn't bad if you hit the ball hard. The players in front of him (Villar and Freeze) have hit a ball softly <7% of the time. Realmuto has 35% of the time, 4th worst in the majors.


    He has hit a grand total of 11 balls into the outfield.


    He's young and I still believe in him but damn



  7. Out of the 125 qualified SP since 2013, Cosart ranks 3rd worst in throwing a first pitch strike and 20th worst in being in the strike zone period. Which isn't bad if you guys swings and misses...except he has the 7th lowest swinging strike % and literally the lowest swing % of balls outside the zone


    Literally the only thing keeping him from being the worst SP in the majors is he gets a ton of ground balls. But he's still in the bottom 15% of SP past few seasons going by xFIP (with fellow teammate, Tom Koehler). Now that's a playoff rotation.



  8. 9 games too late for Barraclough. Now need Ege for Narveson and Wittgren or Ellington for Breslow and I'll be content with the bullpen for now.


    I'm more concerned about Morris than Breslow at this point. We're talking a large drop in velocity. I'm "hoping" he's injured because at least then maybe he can bounce back once he's healthy



  9. It's funny because, statistically speaking, despite the fact that this bullpen is really bad and has had some bad games, it really hasn't been the problem. 9 games in, the SP has been much worse. I do think the SP has more upside though.


    Emphasizing your last point




    ERA: 5.36 FIP: 2.70 xFIP: 3.44. They are 10th in the majors in fWAR. Koehler and Cosart are bad but Jose's, Chen's, and Conley's peripheral stats are fantastic so far.




    ERA: 3.38 FIP: 4.53 xFIP: 5.18. 26th in the majors in fWAR. Brewslow is the only one with a xFIP under 4, and he's at 3.98 lolol


    So yeah, from a peripheral standpoint, the starters have been above average and the relievers have been well below. The results have shown the opposite, but that's doubtful to continue



  10. Usually baseball is a really low key sport.

    Naw, baseball has a huge history with domestic violence. Shit, Miggy was arrested not long after we traded him for it. And definitely not just with the Hispanic players.


    It's just that in years past, it would be a little blurb (if that) in the news with no action by the league or team. More or less, no one cared if you hit your wife as long as you were good enough to be on a roster. Absolute tons of stories past couple decades of a player being arrested for domestic abuse and starting the next day


    Thankfully it's changed because of what happened in the NFL, specifically with people seeing the Ray Rice video and being able to actually have an image in their head of what it means.



  11. So it basically moves the Marlins from 14th to 10th, roughly speaking. That's tangible but not quite huge. That's still a slightly below average offense which supports my belief that the Marlins's offense is average at best with a healthy Stanton.


    I also don't think that offense is the only dimension. But it annoys me when people say that the offense is "fine" when it's rather mediocre.


    I think the offense is fine in the sense that I think the starting players are fine, outside of Bour. The bad offensive players last year were Hech, Ozuna, and Realmuto. Two of them are good defensive players at positions where below average offense is normal and are average at worst players, and the other is a young player you're in a position to live or die with him. Bour is the only below average player on this squad and the only place where you can actually upgrade a position without a superstar, but he's at least not a Bonifacio.


    The bench is another matter, with two to four blackholes in Ichiro, Mathis, Johnson, and Rojas. The bigger problem, as it always is with this team, is lack of depth rather than with the starters.


    edit: and I think this is far from a playoff caliber team, I'm not arguing that. I just don't think the problem is with our starting line up. The problem is basically everything else



  12. Morris, McGown, Breslow and Narverson have all been terrible. Just because they didn't give up 3-4 HR like Morris doesn't mean they've been okay


    I think everyone's point is that they shouldn't be.


    Unknown's are not taken into considering for ZiPS, which an increase/decrease in velocity during the offseason is. That goes for non-numerical projections as well. Once it's known, there are ways to project how the increase/decrease in velocity has an effect on results, yes.



  13. How could the offense be good? It's basically the same as last season's but with Stanton getting more playing time over Ichiro, hopefully.


    Last year's offense was one of the worst in the NL.


    To be fair, that's a huge difference. About 40 runs if you take 300 of Ichiro's PA and give them to Stanton. That moves us from 2nd to last to 10th in the NL last year, so a bit below average


    I also dislike solely the talk of "offense" because defense matters too and last year they were one of the best defensive squads in baseball and that should continue again this year. The Royals have been a good squad because they've paid great defense with average offense. The difference is, the Royals have had a pitching staff.



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