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97marlin

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Posts posted by 97marlin

  1. Just now, hovertical said:

    we'll never really know how good/bad Hill really is all things considered....things changed under Jeter but again, he never had full control apparently so his tenure and ultimately, his ability to broker trades, will kinda be a mystery until he goes elsewhere I guess (assuming he gets full authority in his next stop).  Seemed like a super nice guy though and he certainly did a lot better once Loria was gone.

    I think this is overstated. Yes in Loria's tenure he had no control, but it sounds like in Jeter's everything was done as a committee. He had say, he just didn't have final say. I am sure everyone had something to bring to the table, and the decisions were nuanced.

  2. Everything we have heard about the decision making process of the marlins front office tells me that the hire whomever they are will need to fill in as a cog, not as a true authority figure. My picks would be either Barry Newell from the Rays organization, or Jean Afterman from the Yankees. Both are highly qualified, and bring a lot of information to the table. Neither would be expected to be a general administrator, but rather a clear authority in a particular area of need.

  3. 16 hours ago, rmc523 said:

    And I have nothing against Alfaro - if the pitching numbers were close and just slightly leaning toward Wallach, I'd be fine with starting Alfaro, but they've been heavily skewed.

    Does anyone have numbers for pitcher ERA with Wallach and numbers with Alfaro?

    I looked around using baseball-reference pitcher splits. All-in-all it really is pitcher dependent. For example Pablo is noticeably better with Wallach. Alcantara is actually better with Alfaro. Yimi is always amazing. Sixto really only has 1 start with wallach and the game friday, so the sample is sort of small. If you go just by ERA in total Alfaro is better but almost half a run. But this begins to get into the issue with analyzing any marlins pitching stat in a wholistic way you start to include things like Yamamoto starts, or some of the Urena starts or honestly some of the other single a starts that did not go great.

    This is actually a problem I have been facing when evaluating the team as a whole. There are so many at bats/starts/innings pitched by guys who just weren't ready for the majors that it's hard to get any sort of read on the team that is playing on the field. With Elieser Hernandez our young rotation is really really good, that's pretty much the extent that I have gotten. And the back of our bullpen, asside from Kintzler, has been pretty good as well. And Trevor Rogers overall has been a nice guy out of the pen. Other than that we are in a weird position where it's difficult to argue with Mattingly because there just isn't enough information to straight up say his decision was wrong (within reason). 

    • Like 2
  4. WHYYYYYY SANDY!!!!!!

    Pablo has been the ace all year. He is a top 20 (Baseball Prospectus has him top 6) pitcher in the league. WTF!!!!! Pablo is great against not the Braves or the Rays. The Cubs lineup is the worst lineup the Marlins pitching staff will face all year, use your best pitcher first. 

    Also, Trevor Rogers NEEDS to be the bridge to yimi and I guess Kintzler? I guess? ugh. I wish Mattingly believes in stats. So dumb.

  5. On 8/31/2020 at 11:55 PM, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

    It can definitely be frustrating when these guys aren't hitting, but you gotta remember this is the Yankees way. They go after all sorts of big power, high upside guys, and some turn into Greg Bird (not much) and some turn into Luke Voit (thunder boy).

    Look it at it another way: Would you rather have 10 lottery tickets that are guaranteed to make $2 each, or 10 lottery tickets that have a 50% of being with $2 and a 10% chance to be worth $100? On average, those second tickets are worth $11 each, even though there's a very real likelihood the first 5 you open are all worth $0.

    This is exactly right. But keep in mind the 10 lottery tickets that are guaranteed to make $2 also have a non-zero chance of being worth $100. With this little caveat it changes the calculus. 

    By taking on the higher chance of getting $100 you are also taking on a non-zero chance of getting nothing. Yes, this is the worst possible outcome, but this isn't a possible outcome by taking the lower payout. 

    I, as a marlins fan, understand that they have thought about the bet they have made, and that they believe in the law of large numbers. And that unlike in the Loria years they are sticking to that plan long term. I just personally find it stressful to gamble this way. Again, because of the non-zero chance of coming away with nothing.

    • Like 1
  6. 6 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

    You weren't going to get a huge return for Villar and his reckless underperforming ass would walk after the season anyway. Seems like an odd trade to be upset about.

    I'm not upset about this trade. I think I am just upset about the rookies not hitting, and the constant fear that none of them might hit. And getting another one of these prospects is frustrating.

  7. 1 minute ago, SonOfJack said:

    Getting a team's top 30 prospect (16 I believe) for 1 month of Villar sounds like a great deal to me regardless of name.

    You don't get a reward for having lots of potential prospects. You get awards, and you win games by having good big leaders. Connine, and a number of other players in our system might never be good major leaguers, while all being good prospects.

  8. So I get the name Connine is a thing. And Yeah I am with that. BUT Griffon is literally just another high upside super low floor talent bat. 

    I AM SICK OF ACQUIRING THIS ARCHETYPE!!@!@!$%^%@!$@#!@#

    I was cool with it last year, but It is so sad to watch some of these rookies have terrible at bat after terrible at bat. It is really really really hard to hit well in the majors down 0-2 every at bat.

    I hope this is all just a response to the lack of minor league season, and COVID, but UGH it is so frustrating. The org loves these prospects, and it is well documented. It just feels more and more like the bet is a long shot, not a large scale parlay, but it is frustrating. I wish we could accumulate high floor prospects.

  9. 1 minute ago, Michael said:

    I agree, except Yams shouldn't be brought back up - he needs to figure things out.

    I am not going to rule anyone out. Castano will get some starts somewhere in there. It's going to be a crapshoot. I think we make the playoffs if we hit enough, not if we pitch enough.

  10. I would disagree. We have a ton (I wanna say 5, but I am too lazy to check) of double headers. Our starting rotation will be a mish-mash of the 5 above, plus Neidart, Cabrera, Yamamoto, and Urena. I expect that to be our rotation with an additional "bullpen game" in there somewhere. Our schedule is grueling, just the sheer number of games.

    • Like 1
  11. This sucks.

    Sierra needs to play everyday. Period full stop.

    Forsythe should only be used as a pinch hitter. Period full stop.

    Unless Villar becomes a high OBP guy, he should be used as a power bat with some speed.

    With that here is my marlins lineup:

    Cf Sierra

    DH Aguilar/3B Anderson

    SS Villar/1B Diaz

    DH Aguilar/3B Anderson

    RF/DH/Where ever Dickerson/Diaz

    Berti/C Cervelli

    Berti/C Lavarnway

    Of spot 2 Joyce/ Brinson/ Harrison

    Eddy Alvarez/ Harrison

    Honestly after writing this out, I think I have changed my mind. Without the full roster, the only way this team is successful is if Sierra continues to be hyper selective, and plays everyday. There is only so much Mattingly can do. This team is just not good without some more consistent bats in the lineup. I think it is a mistake to not ride Sierra, but I don't know what is going one behind the scenes. It is clear the organization has high hopes for him, and are treating him as if he is a top prospect. They are really doing there best to mold this new incarnation. I just wish they'd trust the approach all together.

     

     

    • Like 1
  12. I feel like we have limited information for everyone not named Torkelson. Without a college season, there are just so many question marks. 

    Meyer has been projected to go as early as 5. Everyone across the league talks about his physical gifts, it's not a bad pick. 

    Even if it was it's hard to be mad with limited data.

    • Like 1
  13. They're doing it for some other teams too. They've talked about how the Padres have gotten guys and stuff too.

     

     

    They just have no normal content right now with everything shut down, so they're trying to write articles about something.

     

    I get that. I think all of the sports writing world is suffering. Some sites, like fangraphs, are looking for membership. I guess MLBTRADERUMORS is just producing content.

  14. What is with mlbtraderumors. I get the marlins are a volatile team. And everyone has an opinion about them but man. I'm not sure there has ever been more articles written about them on a national website. Worse I feel like they are all rehashed articles that have happened before.

     

    April 22: The outfield trades

    April 25 morning: Ray's won the Anderson trade

    April 25 afternoon: Marlins Gambling away future

     

    Are they doing this for every organization? Or are they just especially obsessed with Jeter (maybe they are A-rod fans?). Not to mention two of those articles are rehashes, mind you in a negative tone, of two articles that fangraphs produced during the deadline.

     

    The florida trade

    The marlins declare their type

     

    Both articles emphasize the same ideas, manage to be less opinionated. And present the downsides of the moves overall. While at the same time presenting the idea in a reasonably structured argument. The author on fangraphs praises the Nick Anderson trade. Essentially saying it's exactly what everyone in both groups should be doing. Then in the second fangraphs article the author doesn't ridicule the marlins for taking risks. They acknowledge that the marlins strategy suggests a belief in development. And emphasizes that though not what he would think to do (he prefers the Daimondbacks method) understands that by stockpiling these kinds of individuals they increase there odds of success.

     

    MLBTradeRumors stick to stories about what might happen, let the other sites look back on what did happen.

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