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Austin Brice designated for assignment (Warning: Thread has nothing to do with Brice)

MarlinsLou

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Also, this analysis of player value is deeply flawed. The "surplus value" does not generate $105 M in additional revenue. The Marlins could not cash Yelich in for a check worth $109 M. There is no basis other than an averaging of FA WAR values relative to their contracts. The largest AAV ever on a FA contract was Garrett Cole's $36 M. Is anyone projecting that he will finish with a WAR of 4? Is anyone projecting that Rendon or Strasberg are going to finish with a WAR of under 4?

The reason why 1 WAR is so expensive on average is because of the players that perform dramatically under expectations that weigh down the WAR outputs. Replacing Yelich's production would not cost $105 M more than his contract value.
We have too monetize production and surplus value to be able to assess it. Is it flawed? Absolutely. Is it the best we got? Yes, but I'll be interested in seeing an alternative way if you want to present something.

How about this. You have $58 million to spend (Yelich's contract) and you need to produce 25 WAR - that's what Yelich was going to do.

Pick MLB FA contracts this offseason. Also, you need to do this over 5 players max (Yelich's year of control) because we can't nickel and dime by scouring for $1-2 million deals because there is IMMENSE value in getting chunk production out of 1 roster slot like Yelich.

I'll also let you "trade" for Villar
 

Michael

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Never seen Lou get so heated before.
 

MarlinsLou

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Never seen Lou get so heated before.
Big picture - we need to hold the front office to the standard of an actual MLB front office and not be apologetic for giving us a terrible product for almost 15 years.

You can buy trading Stanton with a 3 year opt out and being owned $250 million or whatever, which he'd only option if he was hurt so you're fucked either way in losing him or paying him

You can buy trading Realmuto with 2 years of control, as it's dicey to give a catcher a deal into his mid 30s if he was extended. They wear down.

You can buy trading Ozuna with 2 years of control, because he rejected the same deal Yelich got

You can buy trading Dee Gordon and if you want to see me heated, please someone tell me that was dumb

5 years of Yelich and his average salary is under $12 million, coming off two seasons where he averaged a 5 WAR, under 26 years old?

We need to stop this nonsense.

The rebuild has been pretty fantastic on paper - except they blew the biggest move with Yelich. They gave up so much value at the time of trade it's painful, let alone what's happened since. It set them back at least 1, likely 2, years. That's how good he is and we should hold them to the fire until they make up for it. They haven't yet. Not even remotely.
 

taiwanmarlin

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I think something like the "Yelich trade " was just the pain a rebuilding team needs to endure …
 

canada-marlin24

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This really amazes me. Not only was Brett Graves picked up in the Rule 5 draft even though his numbers were garbage, he’s still on the 40 man roster.

It almost seems like they forgot he’s on there.
 

FishFan95

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Who gives a shit about 2018 and 2019? It was a rebuild? They would have a top 20 player in baseball for a contending window right when the rest of the team starts peaking in 21-22. You don't trade these players under any circumstance.

Who cares about having some weaker picks in the draft versus one of the top players in the league - and that's before Yelich exploded? Really?

Are you serious right now? Do you see what you are typing?
Let me be more clear with this post. There is a difference between the value of a win and the cost of a win. Not all wins have equivalent value. Each additional win is more valuable than the last. Win number 70 is more valuable than win number 60, win number 90 is more valuable than win number 80, etc. Additionally, every time you pass a team in the standings you lose draft value. Since draft value drops precipitously after the first pick, even going from #4 to #8 (Which would happen if you added 5 wins to the 2018 Marlins) would lose $8.9 M* plus more from other picks down the line. You will not convince me that wins 64-68 are worth the $8.9 M+ lost in the draft.

Now as you can imagine, with wins becoming more valuable as you get better and draft picks getting less, there comes a point where it makes sense to forego the picks to improve the team. However, 2018 was not that time. Neither was 2019 or will 2020. The Marlins will not be ready to contend until 2021 at the earliest. This was true before the Yelich trade as well. So I agree with you when you say "Who gives a shit about 2018 and 2019?" Yelich's value in those seasons would be irrelevant. They would not get us to the playoffs and they would cost us in drafts. And since not all wins have equal value, the value gained by an estimated 5 wins would not be enough to overcome this.

I also wanted to mention that I agree that there is surplus value and a high cost to wins on the FA market, but I will get into that in another post.

Now I agree that the trade has been a disaster, but I prefer to not use a revisionist lens when examining it. I will use only the data available at the time. I will even use the data that you sited from fangraphs, even though I am skeptical of their wins cost evaluation:

I will assume that Yelich is worth 5 WAR^ for each season from 2018-2022. As I mentioned before his value for 2018-2020 would be wasted so only 2021 and 2022 have true value. That gives him a WAR of 10. Assigning a generous $10 M per WAR, that would be a value of $100 M. Minus the $29 M salary for those 2 years and you get to a grand total of $79 M in surplus value.

Now for the prospects:
Just like with Yelich, everything that they do would before 2021 would be irrelevant since it will not help the team in any real way. Brinson could have gotten an extra year of service by holding him back by around a month. This would give him 4 years left come 2021. Since the other three were expected to debut in 2019, the Marlins could use the same service time manipulation to give each 5 more years by 2021. (I will assume that the projected value is constant each season even though it tends to rise each season as they develop towards their respective peaks.)

Brinson- $55 M x 4/6 = $33 2/3 M
Diaz- $28 M x 5/6 = $23 1/3 M
Harrison- $28 M x 5/6 = $23 1/3 M
Yamamoto- $1 M x 5/6 = 0.833 M

Total surplus value is $81 1/6 M


So, based the fact that the Marlins would be entering a rebuild and at least three of Yelich's years would be wasted, it only made sense to evaluate the projected value of the later years when the Marlins window of contention would begin. This is why the trade was fair value and wasn't the "dumpster fire on day one" like you claim. You need to critically analyze the individual situation and its unique aspects rather than just copy and paste some numbers you find on fangraphs.

*From fangraphs article:

^Zips was projecting the WAR value of Yelich to be 20.6 over 5 years. If you are going to site the projected WAR numbers for the prospects, you should be consistent and use the projected WAR numbers for Yelich as well.

 

Marlino

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Anybody who reasons and/or calculates using the value and/or benefit of losing has a loser mentality.
 

Das Texan

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The disaster of the tv deal is another side cost of the Marlins trade Yelich and everything else. But that doesnt matter at all now does it?
 

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