- Dec 13, 2005
- Reaction score
We have too monetize production and surplus value to be able to assess it. Is it flawed? Absolutely. Is it the best we got? Yes, but I'll be interested in seeing an alternative way if you want to present something.Also, this analysis of player value is deeply flawed. The "surplus value" does not generate $105 M in additional revenue. The Marlins could not cash Yelich in for a check worth $109 M. There is no basis other than an averaging of FA WAR values relative to their contracts. The largest AAV ever on a FA contract was Garrett Cole's $36 M. Is anyone projecting that he will finish with a WAR of 4? Is anyone projecting that Rendon or Strasberg are going to finish with a WAR of under 4?
The reason why 1 WAR is so expensive on average is because of the players that perform dramatically under expectations that weigh down the WAR outputs. Replacing Yelich's production would not cost $105 M more than his contract value.
How about this. You have $58 million to spend (Yelich's contract) and you need to produce 25 WAR - that's what Yelich was going to do.
Pick MLB FA contracts this offseason. Also, you need to do this over 5 players max (Yelich's year of control) because we can't nickel and dime by scouring for $1-2 million deals because there is IMMENSE value in getting chunk production out of 1 roster slot like Yelich.
I'll also let you "trade" for Villar