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Betting on the Marlins is Risky Business

FishFanInPA

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Betting on the Florida Marlins these days is more like swimming with sharks - you take your chances.

The Fish are now 10-11 and boast one the major league?s hottest hitting lineups along with one of its worst pitching staffs. Florida is second in the National League in batting average (.273) and first in total runs (117) but posts the third-highest ERA in the majors (5.09) and has allowed the second-most runs in the NL (118).

Despite the discrepancy on offense and defense, the Marlins have won four of their last five games. Starters Dontrelle Willis (4-1, 5.58 ERA), Anibal Sanchez (2-0, 4.15 ERA) and Scott Olsen (2-1, 6.23 ERA) all have winning records despite each of them having ERA's over 4.00.

Florida?s bullpen hasn?t fared much better on the mound. Its relievers are 1-6 this season with a 4.15 ERA in 89 innings of work, the most of any bullpen in the majors. Marlins starters have only pitched 105.1 total innings.

?Obviously we've got some guys who need to pick it up, especially the starting rotation," pitching coach Rick Kranitz told the Palm Beach Post. ?The starters need to pick it up and they need to get us deeper into games. Once they do that, your relievers don't have to pitch as much.?

Florida?s strong bats and weak arms have made it one of the toughest teams to bet the moneyline on (down 1.92 units) but have turned a huge profit for total bettors riding the over. The Marlins post a 15-6 over/under record and have only seen one total as high as 10 runs this season.

?Florida is definitely a pick-your-spot team because unless you're looking at overs, this Marlins team has shown no real consistency,? says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. ?I have been very surprised at the numbers they put together with regards to overs.

?One key for the Fish is their average with runners in scoring position,? says Rickenbach. ?That is something that I won't say is a fluke but just that it's not likely to continue.?

Florida is second in the NL in batting average with runners in scoring position (.281) but hasn?t capitalized on this run production, allowing teams to also drive in runs with men on base. The Marlins have an ERA of 11.12 when opponents have runners in scoring position and have walked 101 batters in 21 games. Also, 49 of Florida's 118 runs allowed have come with two outs, another MLB worst.

"Teams are having nobody on with two outs and then they're putting together two- and three-run innings,'' Olsen told reporters. "Mentally, that's going to bring you down a little bit."

The Fish will go with Willis when they face the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday night. The unorthodox left-hander is the top over pitcher in the majors with a 5-0 over/under record in his first five starts. There has been an average of 13 total runs in Willis? starts this season.

Books opened with the total for Saturday?s game at 10, only the second time this season a Marlins game has had a double-digit number. The moneyline opened near a pick with Florida set as a slight -105 favorite and the Phillies as -103 home underdogs.
 

Hollyberry

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Before the season started I thought we would have a problem with our hitting not pitching. Hopefully they will get their act together very soon.
 

LetsGoFish

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This batting/pitching discrepancies is why I'm not worrying too much. We have a better rotation that the numbers tell and once we get the other guys back and everyone is set we should improve our pitching numbers. Just gotta keep the offense like it has been which is the hard part.
 

TSwift25

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1) I'm glad I stayed away from them on the over/under.

2) I usually take the moneyline and just the moneyline. Whenever they're considered underdogs with a favorable starting pitching matchup (like they are today with Willis on the mound) I consider them a bet worthy team, otherwise I just stay the hell away from them. They're a bad team, so betting everyday is not a good idea, but they're good enough so you can't consistently bet against them.
 

SilverBullet

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isnt betting on any team risky business? thats why its called betting, thats why people do it...
 

TheDon

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Ive always done very well betting on the over during 1:00 starts at Dolphins Stadium.


:bandit
 

pierremvp1

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Ive always done very well betting on the over during 1:00 starts at Dolphins Stadium.


:bandit
Yes, that's a perennial.
It's the Lou Canova of Marlins bets.
Ahhh-gee-tah.
 

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