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Fish Gutted and Fried?And Then There Were Three

PBMarlin

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Not all of his facts are correct. Particularly the ones related to salary, arbitration and recent signings (Moehler, Harris).

However, it is fascinating to see the stats on the unprecedented lack of experience the Marlins will have in 2006.

Fish Gutted and Fried?And Then There Were Three
2005-12-15 12:23by Mike Carminati

I took a look at the dismemberment of the Marlins (or is it filleting?) a couple of weeks ago and found that the team had cut their payroll by about $25M from $65M to $40M.

I also looked at the high turnover on the Red Sox going into their second season after winning the World Series. One of the comments on that post asked how the Marlins would compare if we were to extend the study to a third year.

Well, given that the Crazy Marlins have unloaded everything that was not tied?or more to the point every player who was tied down, to a contract?I thought it would be interesting to revisit the floundering fish.

As for the team turnover, the Marlins have just three players left from the 2003 championship team: Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, and Nate Bump, all of whom were rookies in 2003. Since I wrote the first piece on Florida about three weeks ago they have traded away their starting second baseman for the past seven seasons Luis Castillo (who had been with the team since 1996), their veteran catcher Paul Lo Duca, and their center fielder Juan Pierre.

Miguel Cabrera is the only starting position player from this past season who is still with the team. In fact, of the ten players who had more than 134 at-bats for the team in 2005, he's the sole survivor. Willis and Jason Vargas are the only starting pitchers with at least 5 starts for the Marlins in 2005 to still call Florida their home. In the pen there is just one pitcher remaining who made at least 30 appearances in 2005 (Bump).

The Marlins have no players remaining from the 15 who made at least $1M in 2005. Their two young stars, Cabrera and Willis, could become trade bait after they go through arbitration and get what I would expect are very large salary increases. From an estimated $65M payroll in 2005, Florida has now pared $60,993,334 through trades and free agent departures. That is unbelievable. Until arbitration John Riedling with his $750 salary is the highest paid Marlin.

I wouldn't be surprised if they waived vets Ron Villone ($1,950,000 in 2005 with the M's and Marlins, paid by the M's) and Riedling. That would leave them with no player who made more than $378,500 in 2005 (Willis).

The minimum possible team payroll in 2006 would be $8M (i.e., league minimum, $320K, for all 25 players). I estimate that the Marlins 2006 salary (even with Riedling still in the fold and with the three holdovers from 2003 getting salary bumps through arbitration) being about $18M. If the Marlins complete their housekeeping, they could get below $18M.

This team has been thoroughly gutted with not so much as an "I say!" from commissioner Bud. And let's make no mistake here: this is an historic housecleaning. This is beyond anything that Connie Mack or Charlie O. Finley ever tried.

Here's an update to their team payroll by player:

Player 2005 Salary 2006 status 2006 Salary
Mike Lowell $7,500,000 Traded to Red Sox
Al Leiter $7,000,000 No longer with team
Luis Castillo $5,166,667 Traded to Twins
Paul Lo Duca $4,666,667 Traded to Mets
Juan Encarnacion $4,435,000 Free Agent
Carlos Delgado $4,000,000 Traded to Mets
Juan Pierre $3,700,000 Traded To Cubs
A.J. Burnett $3,650,000 Free Agent
Alex Gonzalez $3,400,000 Free Agent
Jeff Conine $3,000,000 Free Agent
Guillermo Mota $2,600,000 Traded to Red Sox
Josh Beckett $2,400,000 Traded to Red Sox
Ismael Valdez $1,500,000 Free Agent
Todd Jones $1,100,000 Free Agent
Jim Mecir $1,100,000 Free Agent
Damion Easley $750,000 Free Agent
John Riedling $750,000 ? $750,000
Matt Perisho $475,000 No longer with team
Lenny Harris $425,000 Free Agent
Brian Moehler $400,000 Free Agent
Dontrelle Willis $378,500 $5,000,000
Miguel Cabrera $370,000 $5,000,000
Nate Bump $360,000 $500,000
Chris Aguila $316,000 New OF $320,000
Matt Treanor $316,000 New C $320,000
Antonio Alfonseca $300,000 Free Agent, option declined
Mike Mordecai $425,000 Free Agent
Paul Quantrill $3,000,000 Free Agent
Jason Vargas ? SP $320,000
Randy Messenger ? RP $320,000
Ron Villone $1,950,000 ?
Valerio de los Santos ? ? $320,000
Scott Olsen ? SP $320,000
Chris Resop ? RP $320,000
Josh Johnson ? SP $320,000
Robert Andino ? New SS? $320,000
Jeremy Hermida ? New OF $320,000
Joe Dillon ? New 2B or UT? $320,000
Josh Willingham ? New C? $320,000
Josh Wilson ? New 2B? $320,000
Ryan Jorgensen ? New C? $320,000
Alfredo Amezaga $0 New 3B? $320,000
Mike Jacobs $0 New 1B or C $320,000
Hanley Ramirez $0 New SS? $320,000
Sergio Mitre $0 $350,000
Total $65,433,834 $ 17,040,000

(Notes: Mordecai is based on 2004. Quantrill's 2005 contract was with the Yankees. Villone's 2005 salary was paid by the Mariners.)

Having only three players remaining from a championship team three years later is the lowest total ever, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Marlins got rid of any or all of the three post arbitration. Here are the worst records of player retention for a World Series winner, three years after a championship (Keep in mind that the average for a World Series champ is about 12 players retained three years later and that the highest was 20 retained by the '86 Mets and the '51 Yankees): Yr Team Num Players PCT Yr3 PCT Diff
1918 Boston Red Sox 4 .595 .487 -.108
1974 Oakland Athletics 4 .556 .391 -.164
1941 New York Yankees 5 .656 .539 -.117
1997 Florida Marlins 5 .568 .491 -.077
1944 St. Louis Cardinals 7 .682 .578 -.104
1919 Cincinnati Reds 7 .686 .558 -.127
1914 Boston Braves 7 .614 .471 -.144
1990 Cincinnati Reds 7 .562 .451 -.111
1915 Boston Red Sox 7 .669 .595 -.074
1928 New York Yankees 8 .656 .614 -.041
1913 Philadelphia Athletics 8 .627 .235 -.392
1934 St. Louis Cardinals 8 .621 .526 -.095
1925 Pittsburgh Pirates 8 .621 .559 -.062
1942 St. Louis Cardinals 8 .688 .617 -.071
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks 8 .568 .315 -.253
1940 Cincinnati Reds 8 .654 .565 -.089
1921 New York Giants 8 .614 .608 -.007


The current Marlins are worse than the Charlie O. A's, the Harry Frazee Red Sox who begot a "curse", war-era championship teams?hey, the are even worse than the '97 version of the team reviled for buying a championship and then cutting bait. On average these teams' winning percentage decrease by 120 points, from .626 to .506.

I expect the Marlins to be much worse than that. 120 point worse than their 2003 record (91-71, .562) would be about 72 wins. I think that's high. This team could be among the worst ever even if they decide to keep Cabrera and Willis.

Consider that the current crew of position players has just 851 games of major-league experience. Miguel Cabrera with two and one half years under his belt is by far the most experienced player. He's the only one who has played in at least 162 games, the equivalent of a major-league season and his career total (405) is nearly half the team total (851). They have just eight players with more than 20 games of major-experience. Do I smell a lineup? Here's the rundown:

Player Career G
Miguel Cabrera 405
Alfredo Amezaga 127
Chris Aguila 94
Matt Treanor 87
Mike Jacobs 30
Josh Willingham 28
Joe Dillon 27
Jeremy Hermida 23
Robert Andino 17
Josh Wilson 11
Hanley Ramirez 2
Reggie Abercrombie 0
Jason Stokes 0
Eric Reed 0
Dan Uggla 0
Total 851

Baseball has not seen as inexperienced a team as this since foundation of the rival Union Association in 1884. There are 54 teams in baseball history with less than 851 games of experience for its position players. None are from after 1884. On average they have a .396 winning percentage, which translates into a 64-98 record in a 162-game schedule. Here are the least experienced:

Player Lg Yr Career G W L PCT
Milwaukee Brewers UA 1884 13 8 4 .667
St. Paul Apostles UA 1884 15 2 6 .250
Middletown Mansfields NA 1872 30 5 19 .208
St. Louis Red Stockings NA 1875 36 4 15 .211
Washington Nationals NA 1872 48 0 11 .000
Baltimore Marylands NA 1873 54 0 6 .000
Brooklyn Atlantics NA 1872 74 9 28 .243
Brooklyn Eckfords NA 1872 88 3 26 .103
Altoona Mountain City UA 1884 111 6 19 .240
Washington Nationals AA 1884 133 12 51 .190

All 13 career games for the 1884 Brewers were contributed by catcher Cal Broughton, and all of those came in the previous season.

Here are the teams with the least experience for their position players since the inception of the AL and the start of the "modern" era. None are within 1100 games of the Marlins. This includes teams from short-lived third leagues, from the starts of the AL, and during wars, and the '06 Marlins will destroy them all:

Player Lg Yr Career G W L PCT
Kansas City Packers FL 1914 2049 67 84 .444
Cincinnati Reds NL 1907 2135 66 87 .431
Boston Braves NL 1944 2213 65 89 .422
Boston Doves NL 1910 2226 53 100 .346
St. Louis Terriers FL 1914 2373 62 89 .411
Detroit Tigers AL 1901 2391 74 61 .548
Minnesota Twins AL 1983 2425 70 92 .432
Indianapolis Hoosiers FL 1914 2444 88 65 .575
Cincinnati Reds NL 1909 2455 77 76 .503
Florida Marlins NL 1999 2491 64 98 .395
Milwaukee Brewers AL 1901 2513 48 89 .350
Brooklyn Superbas NL 1905 2533 48 104 .316
St. Louis Browns AL 1948 2555 59 94 .386
Chicago Cubs NL 1923 2608 83 71 .539
St. Louis Cardinals NL 1908 2644 49 105 .318
Boston Red Sox AL 1909 2723 88 63 .583
Philadelphia Athletics AL 1936 2759 53 100 .346
Montreal Expos NL 1993 2783 94 68 .580
Brooklyn Dodgers NL 1912 2824 58 95 .379
St. Louis Cardinals NL 1902 2828 56 78 .418
Total 1322 1708 .436

Looking at just the teams from the last fifty years, it gets worse. Note that the closest team has about 1600 games more of experience or about 200% more:

Player Lg Yr Career G W L PCT
Minnesota Twins AL 1983 2425 70 92 .432
Florida Marlins NL 1999 2491 64 98 .395
Montreal Expos NL 1993 2783 94 68 .580
San Diego Padres NL 1969 2873 52 110 .321
Kansas City Royals AL 1969 3205 69 93 .426
San Diego Padres NL 1970 3299 63 99 .389
St. Louis Browns AL 1950 3301 58 96 .377
Chicago White Sox AL 1999 3476 75 86 .466
Pittsburgh Pirates NL 1955 3579 60 94 .390
Pittsburgh Pirates NL 1998 3597 69 93 .426
Montreal Expos NL 1998 3660 65 97 .401
Minnesota Twins AL 2000 3734 69 93 .426
Montreal Expos NL 1994 3854 74 40 .649
Kansas City Athletics AL 1962 3879 72 90 .444
Minnesota Twins AL 2001 3930 85 77 .525
Minnesota Twins AL 1982 3974 60 102 .370
Kansas City Athletics AL 1967 4010 62 99 .385
Kansas City Royals AL 1996 4073 75 86 .466
Montreal Expos NL 1996 4098 88 74 .543
Oakland Athletics AL 1979 4160 54 108 .333
Total 1378 1795 .434

What we are witnessing here is something that's never even been conceived before. It's the near total dismantling of a major-league team. Some of the teams on the list above are very inexperienced but that is because of a young, talented players being given a chance. Usually those players get a short trial to prove themselves and a team makes the plunge.

That's not the case here. The Marlins were a veteran club that was supposed to compete in 2005. They failed to mount a serious postseason challenge. They did not start dismantling and rebuilding during the season. The team remained essentially intact until the postseason, and then?boom!

One has to wonder with the owners being allowed to contract after this season without the players say-so, what the end game is here. Of course, the Marlins are looking for?and apparently not getting?a new stadium. They have also threatened to leave, and may be cutting payroll to became more attractive, at least financially.

Whatever the cause, I think we have an opportunity to witness something that will make the '62 Mets and the 2003 Tigers seem like amateurs (or is that professionals?). We're talking neo-Cleveland Spiders here. If this team does not lose 100 games, I will be shocked. If they don't break the Mets' "record" of 120, it'll be a crime. Boy, Joe Girardi is really going to miss his cushy Yankee job, if not his cushy Yankee players, by season's end.
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Lefty

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Until arbitration John Riedling with his $750 salary is the highest paid Marlin.


OH MY GOD
 

TSwift25

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Baseball has not seen as inexperienced a team as this since foundation of the rival Union Association in 1884. There are 54 teams in baseball history with less than 851 games of experience for its position players. None are from after 1884.

Wow.

Now, of course I'm sure that figure has to change with Harris and whatever journeyman we inevitably sign for centerfield or leftfield (maybe both), but some of the numbers are staggering.

And, for the record, I think we win 75 games next season.
 

Lefty

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Baseball has not seen as inexperienced a team as this since foundation of the rival Union Association in 1884. There are 54 teams in baseball history with less than 851 games of experience for its position players. None are from after 1884.

Wow.

Now, of course I'm sure that figure has to change with Harris and whatever journeyman we inevitably sign for centerfield or leftfield (maybe both), but some of the numbers are staggering.

And, for the record, I think we win 75 games next season.
Ok, so here's the question. From a comparative perspective, if such an inexperienced team does win 70+ games, would that be the most impressive thing ever accomplished in baseball?
 

Marlins2003

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Riedling was cut October 3rd

Harris was excluded because Lenny has almost 2000 games under his belt and that would skew his numbers and undermine his flawed thesis.

Moehler 180, Villone 493.

The point is valid nonetheless. This is going to be a very, very young club.
 

TSwift25

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Baseball has not seen as inexperienced a team as this since foundation of the rival Union Association in 1884. There are 54 teams in baseball history with less than 851 games of experience for its position players. None are from after 1884.

Wow.

Now, of course I'm sure that figure has to change with Harris and whatever journeyman we inevitably sign for centerfield or leftfield (maybe both), but some of the numbers are staggering.

And, for the record, I think we win 75 games next season.
Ok, so here's the question. From a comparative perspective, if such an inexperienced team does win 70+ games, would that be the most impressive thing ever accomplished in baseball?

Possibly, but we're not inexperienced in the traditional sense. Most of the guys (Hermida as a prime example) are major league ready, some, like Cabrera, Willis, Hermida and possibly Hanley are all-star ready.

Until Jayson Stark or someother respected writer who loves useless info like this comes out and says it, I'll just regard this as an interesting read, and nothing more.

However, I have heard people say (I guess half seriously, now that I think about it) that if Girardi has this team finish with more than 70 wins, he should get manager of the year honors.
 

PBMarlin

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Ok, so here's the question. From a comparative perspective, if such an inexperienced team does win 70+ games, would that be the most impressive thing ever accomplished in baseball?


:lol

Those are the types of goals we will have next year? Talk about being underdogs. Any series we win will be a major achievement.
 

Lefty

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Ok, so here's the question. From a comparative perspective, if such an inexperienced team does win 70+ games, would that be the most impressive thing ever accomplished in baseball?


:lol

Those are the types of goals we will have next year? Talk about being underdogs. Any series we win will be a major achievement.
We will still be competitive with ATL, that's for sure. We always have been even when we were horrid.
 

TSwift25

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Ok, so here's the question. From a comparative perspective, if such an inexperienced team does win 70+ games, would that be the most impressive thing ever accomplished in baseball?


:lol

Those are the types of goals we will have next year? Talk about being underdogs. Any series we win will be a major achievement.
We will still be competitive with ATL, that's for sure. We always have been even when we were horrid.

Atlanta's owned us. They're one of the three or four teams that we have the worst regular season record against. The D'backs, Pirates and Giants are on that list too...
 

Lefty

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I'm trying to look for head-to-head stats, but can't find any.
 

TSwift25

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I'm trying to look for head-to-head stats, but can't find any.


It was in the PB Post back in June, same day as the Sheffield rumors and the day after that Encarnacion walk off win against the Braves...if you know how to get a hold of that. It was on the front page of the sports section. (I've got a crazy selective photographic memory...wish I could use it for something more useful than randomly useless info).
 

Lefty

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1993: FLA won 5, ATL won 7.
1994: FLA won 4, ATL won 8.
1995: FLA won 3, ATL won 10.
1996: FLA won 7, ATL won 6.
1997: FLA won 8, ATL won 4.
1998: FLA won 5, ATL won 7.
1999: FLA won 4, ATL won 9.
2000: FLA won 6, ATL won 6.
2001: FLA won 10, ATL won 9.
2002: FLA won 8, ATL won 11.
2003: FLA won 10, ATL won 9
2004: FLA won 5, ATL won 14.
2005: FLA won 8, ATL won 10



Like I said, very competitive over the years.
 

TSwift25

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That's 83-110 lifetime or a .430 winning percentage...not great.
 

Lefty

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That's 83-110 lifetime or a .430 winning percentage...not great.

please note the bolded segments. 9 out of 13 seasons the series was either Marlin wins or decided by 3 games or less (only 1 by 3, the rest 2 or less)

If that's not competitive, I don't know what is.
 

TSwift25

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That's 83-110 lifetime or a .430 winning percentage...not great.

please note the bolded segments. 9 out of 13 seasons the series was either Marlin wins or decided by 3 games or less (only 1 by 3, the rest 2 or less)

If that's not competitive, I don't know what is.

Well, for starters, winning more than 4 season series would be competitive.

Historically, they've owned us.
 

Lefty

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That's 83-110 lifetime or a .430 winning percentage...not great.

please note the bolded segments. 9 out of 13 seasons the series was either Marlin wins or decided by 3 games or less (only 1 by 3, the rest 2 or less)

If that's not competitive, I don't know what is.

Well, for starters, winning more than 4 season series would be competitive.

Historically, they've owned us.
I really can't provide more concrete evidence of our competitiveness with them than I just did :lol

If you want to be stubborn, cool. When you play 20 or so games a year and either win or have a 2 game difference in majority of those years, that's competition.
 

Lefty

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What is our over/under anyway, or when do they come out with those numbers?

1993: FLA won 5, ATL won 7.
1994: FLA won 4, ATL won 8.
1995: FLA won 3, ATL won 10.
1996: FLA won 7, ATL won 6.
1997: FLA won 8, ATL won 4.
1998: FLA won 5, ATL won 7.
1999: FLA won 4, ATL won 9.
2000: FLA won 6, ATL won 6.
2001: FLA won 10, ATL won 9.
2002: FLA won 8, ATL won 11.
2003: FLA won 10, ATL won 9
2004: FLA won 5, ATL won 14.
2005: FLA won 8, ATL won 10



Like I said, very competitive over the years.

And honestly, I was only trying to highlight our relative success even during the rebuilding years after 97.

1998: FLA won 5, ATL won 7.
1999: FLA won 4, ATL won 9.
2000: FLA won 6, ATL won 6.
2001: FLA won 10, ATL won 9.
2002: FLA won 8, ATL won 11.

Even when we sucked a whole, we gave them a good tuffle.
 

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That's 83-110 lifetime or a .430 winning percentage...not great.

please note the bolded segments. 9 out of 13 seasons the series was either Marlin wins or decided by 3 games or less (only 1 by 3, the rest 2 or less)

If that's not competitive, I don't know what is.

Well, for starters, winning more than 4 season series would be competitive.

Historically, they've owned us.
I really can't provide more concrete evidence of our competitiveness with them than I just did :lol

If you want to be stubborn, cool. When you play 20 or so games a year and either win or have a 2 game difference in majority of those years, that's competition.

Look, if a .430 winning percentage is "competitve" to you, then you're going to have a ball with this season, we're going to be competitve beyond even your wildest dreams.

Fact of the matter is, Atlanta has absolutely blown us out in many season series, and over the course of 10 or 18 games, law of averages tend to come into play, we're not talking three game series here, we're talking division play. Perhaps if this were the D'Backs or Giants (two teams we've also historically had problems with during the regular season) then the whole "only two games" argument could come into play, but we're playing them at least 12 times a season for the past decade, yet they've won 23 more games against us than we have against them. We've won substantially less than half of the games played between the two teams. That's not competitive.
 

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