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Frisaro's Inbox: What is Miami's top priority in offseason?

Michael

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I absolutely love it when @MarlinsLou posts. No wasted effort and always informative.

Only thing I would disagree with is signing Castellanos - just not a fan, really.
 

MarlinsLou

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I absolutely love it when @MarlinsLou posts. No wasted effort and always informative.

Only thing I would disagree with is signing Castellanos - just not a fan, really.
Thanks

I do know Castellanos is controversial, but it's based on availability (the only bats worth more than a year or two are Rendon, Castellanos, and Ozuna) and they NEED a veteran who can hit and grow with the kids. Castellanos is 28 next year and you're getting his prime on a 3-5 year deal. He's not "that" bad in RF either based on last year's stats although that is a negative.

Given that Sanchez, VVM (those two were awarded best overall - in all of minors - defensive RF and CF respectively), and Sierra are GG upside options, Monte is supposed to be really good defensively, the possibility of a NL DH in 2-3 years, no guarantee Sanchez/Monte/Bleday/Sierra/VVM all develop to push Castellanos off the OF, Castellanos can probably play 1B too and maybe Lewin doesn't work out, he's from South Florida, his contract won't prevent them from a "big" move in 1-2 years (Correa, Lindor, Rizzo, various aces, etc.), he is right handed and Lewin, Isan, Jazz, Bleday, and Sanchez are all lefties, AND you don't lose a draft pick (2020 draft is deeper than usual), I think this is a low-risk signing. He's going to bat a 2+ WAR for years and he could easily average 3-4 WAR the next few years if he plays like 18/19. His hit tool is real and I think there is room to grow in AVG, BB, and SLUG for his prime years.

Maybe I'm wrong, but if the contract is right (I think 3-4 years at $14-17 a year would be fantastic), this would be a good signing to me. It helps PR too as it shows they have a real plan. He definitely compliments what they have. Combine him with Castro on his option or a 2 year deal, and all of a sudden the lineup is pretty interesting.

Ozuna works too, but he has a draft pick attached and may not want to come back. Also will be more expensive.
 

FishFan95

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Maybe I'm wrong, but if the contract is right (I think 3-4 years at $14-17 a year would be fantastic), this would be a good signing to me. It helps PR too as it shows they have a real plan. He definitely compliments what they have. Combine him with Castro on his option or a 2 year deal, and all of a sudden the lineup is pretty interesting.

Ozuna works too, but he has a draft pick attached and may not want to come back. Also will be more expensive.
That is assuming the Cardinals offer a QO and Ozuna rejects it. Given the two mediocre seasons he put up with them I don't know if he rejects that deal. If anything, he's gonna want to rebuild his value and a 1 year deal would be a good opportunity.
 

MarlinsLou

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That is assuming the Cardinals offer a QO and Ozuna rejects it. Given the two mediocre seasons he put up with them I don't know if he rejects that deal. If anything, he's gonna want to rebuild his value and a 1 year deal would be a good opportunity.
He's going to get a big 5 year deal .249 BABIP last year. Massive BB rate increase. Major upside. He's not going to be a Moustakas situation.
 

FishFan95

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He's going to get a big 5 year deal .249 BABIP last year. Massive BB rate increase. Major upside. He's not going to be a Moustakas situation.
Based on a review of his numbers, it's clear that the drop in BAbip is based on a massive drop in his ground ball batting average. Even though he had a drop in his ground ball rate, it was still 41.4%. Part of the drop BA due to a big drop in his opposite hit rate. Most likely opposing teams are shifting on him hard in the infield and he has been ignoring that in favor of more lift on his balls to go for extra bases. This is likely a lot to do with his coaching in St. Louis.

If he stays it will likely remain a big problem. If he goes away, his BAabip will increase. Either way he had a much more respectable .309 BAbip last year and his wRC+ was even worse at 107. I see him more of the 107-116 wRC+ player he has been in his career for the most part. 2017 was an aberration that is just as likely to repeat as his terrible 2015 year.
 

Michael

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Thanks

I do know Castellanos is controversial, but it's based on availability (the only bats worth more than a year or two are Rendon, Castellanos, and Ozuna) and they NEED a veteran who can hit and grow with the kids. Castellanos is 28 next year and you're getting his prime on a 3-5 year deal. He's not "that" bad in RF either based on last year's stats although that is a negative.

Given that Sanchez, VVM (those two were awarded best overall - in all of minors - defensive RF and CF respectively), and Sierra are GG upside options, Monte is supposed to be really good defensively, the possibility of a NL DH in 2-3 years, no guarantee Sanchez/Monte/Bleday/Sierra/VVM all develop to push Castellanos off the OF, Castellanos can probably play 1B too and maybe Lewin doesn't work out, he's from South Florida, his contract won't prevent them from a "big" move in 1-2 years (Correa, Lindor, Rizzo, various aces, etc.), he is right handed and Lewin, Isan, Jazz, Bleday, and Sanchez are all lefties, AND you don't lose a draft pick (2020 draft is deeper than usual), I think this is a low-risk signing. He's going to bat a 2+ WAR for years and he could easily average 3-4 WAR the next few years if he plays like 18/19. His hit tool is real and I think there is room to grow in AVG, BB, and SLUG for his prime years.

Maybe I'm wrong, but if the contract is right (I think 3-4 years at $14-17 a year would be fantastic), this would be a good signing to me. It helps PR too as it shows they have a real plan. He definitely compliments what they have. Combine him with Castro on his option or a 2 year deal, and all of a sudden the lineup is pretty interesting.
Yeah, I can't see anything against this. Well reasoned, friend.

If the NL gets the DH, then I'm definitely not against that move at all.
 

MarlinsLou

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Based on a review of his numbers, it's clear that the drop in BAbip is based on a massive drop in his ground ball batting average. Even though he had a drop in his ground ball rate, it was still 41.4%. Part of the drop BA due to a big drop in his opposite hit rate. Most likely opposing teams are shifting on him hard in the infield and he has been ignoring that in favor of more lift on his balls to go for extra bases. This is likely a lot to do with his coaching in St. Louis.

If he stays it will likely remain a big problem. If he goes away, his BAabip will increase. Either way he had a much more respectable .309 BAbip last year and his wRC+ was even worse at 107. I see him more of the 107-116 wRC+ player he has been in his career for the most part. 2017 was an aberration that is just as likely to repeat as his terrible 2015 year.
He's entering his age 29 season and has averaged over a 3 WAR per 600/PA his career. He's going to get paid. I agree his 17 might be his career year as he was spectacular, but who is going to be surprised if he lands somewhere in between 17 and 18/19 for years moving forward? Not anyone. His power is legit (excellent batted ball/exit velocity profile), and he's becoming more patient. Remember he was hurt last year too.

In fact, he's perfect for the Marlins if that bridge isn't burned. If his 16, 18, and 19 is his floor, he's a safe as hell signing with legitimate power upside. Marlins need a right handed veteran batter, and can stick him in LF (where he has been an elite defender. They need to keep him out of CF but that's obvious). Figure out Monte/Sanchez/Bleday/VVM/Sierra later if they somehow all work out. Which they won't.

I'd give him 4/$70-80 quickly and not care about losing the draft pick. Probably a little more too, as he likely comps above Cain/Fowler/Pollock/etc. Assuming they get their internal OF lined up past him (for league minimum for at least 3+ years which is huge), they'll have multiple of Monte/Sanchez/Bleday/VVM/Sierra/Scott/Misner/Osiris/Burdick to trade to fill other holes.

He, Castellanos, and Rendon are perfect as long as they money is realistic, even if on the high end of reasonable. They should really do it with their payroll flexibility and sign someone a year early, just like the Nats did years ago with Werth.
 

Vic D

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So when's all this stuff happen? Like when does free agency open, winter meetings and all the activity start? Also how do I get all of these bats off of my damn screen?
 

DTrain

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No offense but this just shows once again my problem with so-called advanced stats. There is one to prove anything when you have 5000 to choose from. Chen was absolute garbage for them and I don't need a stat to tell me otherwise when I saw it happen.
I hate Chen. I hate him with a passion.

But the problem with the Eye Test method of evaluating baseball players is that the eyes (and the heart) tend to vividly remember the very bad outings while forgetting the decent outings.

He didn’t say Chen was good. He said Chen may likely not be our worst lefty reliever.
 

Das Texan

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As long as the Cardinals dont pay Ozuna I dont care where he goes, tbh.
 

Michael

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I hate Chen. I hate him with a passion.

But the problem with the Eye Test method of evaluating baseball players is that the eyes (and the heart) tend to vividly remember the very bad outings while forgetting the decent outings.

He didn’t say Chen was good. He said Chen may likely not be our worst lefty reliever.
There was a time period where I had more faith in Chen than Conley, so that says something.
 

MIggy03

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So when's all this stuff happen? Like when does free agency open, winter meetings and all the activity start? Also how do I get all of these bats off of my damn screen?
Can't answer the first few questions, but you just have to tweak around with the color theme and settings to get the weird bats off the screen.
 

SonOfJack

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I hate Chen. I hate him with a passion.

But the problem with the Eye Test method of evaluating baseball players is that the eyes (and the heart) tend to vividly remember the very bad outings while forgetting the decent outings.

He didn’t say Chen was good. He said Chen may likely not be our worst lefty reliever.
True, I see what you're saying.
 

SongInTheAir

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We're totally going to trade Chen and a legitimate prospect for a C- prospect just so another team pays Chen's celery :(

 

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