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Choi vs Dlee (2004)


djm305

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Drawing conclusions from raw number comparasons is a common statistical error. ex. Statements like "murders increased from 80 to 83 this year in city XYZ" fail to account for any population increases that may have resulted in the actual murder RATE declining even though a simplistic raw number comparason leads one to believe there was some sort of increase to be worried about

 

If this theory were correct, lee, and choi's stats should be the exact opposite with lee leading in almost every category. Lee switched from a pitchers park to a smaller park.

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Let's also add that Choi has played a respectable First Base. Let's also keep in mind that we are comparing a player just a year removed from his rookie season to a veteran player.

let's also keep in mind it is only april I agree with you on that, but remeber Choi had some big shoes to fill when he came down here and right now he is doing just that.

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Choi has a good command of the strike zone. He has a good, smooth swing. He will strike out less than Lee and has just as much power. He plays, at least, average defense (noticed how he stretched for the throw yesterday or how he went over the railing to get a foul ball-yesterday or the day before - I forget when). He has, at least, average speed. I think this was a good trade.

I agree with most of what you said. But Choi is not an average 1st base, he is an above average defensive player, but not at the level of Derek Lee.

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Guys,

 

All we can do is compare Choi to Lee in April. The point isn't is Choi better than Lee, it's was it a wise decision not to pay DLee $8MM and make this trade? I think we see the potential in Choi and the answer is definitly yes.

 

Does anyone not see the potential for a 260 average 25 home runs and 75 rbis from Choi? I think that is a fair conservative number. DLee probably goes .275 30 95? Over 550 at bats the difference is 8 hits, 5 home runs and 20 RBI's.

 

Where DLee earns points is with his glove, but tell me if you have not noticed the same things I have. Last year it seemed Mike Lowell couldn't reach first base half the time and DLee picked it to get the out. This year I am seeing better throws to 1B. Where I have noticed the biggest difference in defense is the ball hit right down the line. Rarely did a ball get between Lee and the 1B bag.

 

Anyhow, I am very happy with Choi. To be honest I was not a fan of Lee ever since he knocked management for trading Cliff Floyd (Carl Pavano, Justin Wayne, Mike Mordecai and Levinski who was part of the deal for Conine) and Ryan Dempster(Encarnacion and Ryan Snare who was part of the Urbina trade). I just felt it was not his place to critcize management....maybe today he sees they made the right moves.

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Good to see we're back to talking baseball.

 

I've always been a non-stat obsessed fan but I do glance at them from time to time. Clearly Choi is doing a more than adequate job of replacing Mr. Anti-Clutch, Derrek Lee, in almost every offensive category and I can't point to a game where Choi's defense cost us a victory. What he can't do is cover the line the way Lee did simply because Choi is a lefty and Lee a righty.

 

All in all, and giving it's still April so who knows what things will look like in September, Choi at $300k and Lee at about $ 8 million looks like a good move for the Fish.

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"...To be honest I was not a fan of Lee ever since he knocked management for trading Cliff Floyd...and Ryan Dempster..."

 

First all great post.

 

Second, I couldn't agree more about Lee and his mouth in 2002. As far as I was concerned he was a chronic underachiever who should have kept his mouth shut and sealed his own fate with the team when he spouted off.

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I think comparing the two doesn't accomplish much right now. Its early in the season and even if Lee was head and shoulders better than Choi it wouldn't be an issue because we simply couldn't pay him. It was either him, Castillo or Lowell.

 

Choi is doing a great job and I hope he keeps it up. Having a power lefty is a good thing in a lineup and when he gets paid next to nothing - compared to Lee - then its a great thing.

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I was a huge fan of Lee, and that whole "anti-clutch" bullsh*t is exactly that...bullsh*t. He was no worse with RISP, late innings, etc. than Juan Encarnacion, or someone like that. In fact, does anyone remember Game 6 against the Cubs? Bases loaded, one out 8th inning, down 2. He hits a 2-run double off of Mark Prior. He also had a key RBI in Game 7.

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Guys also note...

 

 

Choi is...

 

3rd in RBI's on the Team

1st in OBP (.410) on the Team Amoung players with at least 12 GP

1st in BB Overall on the team

1st in SLG (.647) on the team

2nd in HR (6) only to Cabrera's 7

 

 

 

That is more than excellent THUS FAR!

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"...To be honest I was not a fan of Lee ever since he knocked management for trading Cliff Floyd...and Ryan Dempster..."

 

First all great post.

 

Second, I couldn't agree more about Lee and his mouth in 2002. As far as I was concerned he was a chronic underachiever who should have kept his mouth shut and sealed his own fate with the team when he spouted off.

i disagree a little bit here on the attitude argument. right now, it's easy to look at everything in hindsight and see that management had a plan (which was executed to perfection), but at the time, it sure looked like every good player on the team was only playing as an audition for all other teams in MLB. 2002 was the first time in 5 years that this team actually looked like it had a chance to finally win some games, and i'm sure that must have been an exciting prospect for guys like Lee, Castillo, etc. who had struggled through some tough times. But instead of giving them a shot to actually have some fun out there, management appeared to be tripping all overthemselves to sell anyone of any worth on the squad. Floyd was the best hitter on the squad, and trade talk surrounded him even before the first pitch was thrown that year. They traded our closer (Alfonseca) in Spring Training. It must have been very frustrating for him....it was for me, at least. In retrospect, i agree 100% with every move they made, but at the time, it sure looked like it was just more of the same from an ownership that appeared to prize saving a buck over winning some games. It made me mad, and i understand why it would make him even madder.

 

anyhow, i'd still rather have Choi + $7.5 million, so this is probably moot. but i just wanted to defend Lee a bit.

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"...To be honest I was not a fan of Lee ever since he knocked management for trading Cliff Floyd...and Ryan Dempster..."

 

First all great post.

 

Second, I couldn't agree more about Lee and his mouth in 2002. As far as I was concerned he was a chronic underachiever who should have kept his mouth shut and sealed his own fate with the team when he spouted off.

i disagree a little bit here on the attitude argument. right now, it's easy to look at everything in hindsight and see that management had a plan (which was executed to perfection), but at the time, it sure looked like every good player on the team was only playing as an audition for all other teams in MLB. 2002 was the first time in 5 years that this team actually looked like it had a chance to finally win some games, and i'm sure that must have been an exciting prospect for guys like Lee, Castillo, etc. who had struggled through some tough times. But instead of giving them a shot to actually have some fun out there, management appeared to be tripping all overthemselves to sell anyone of any worth on the squad. Floyd was the best hitter on the squad, and trade talk surrounded him even before the first pitch was thrown that year. They traded our closer (Alfonseca) in Spring Training. It must have been very frustrating for him....it was for me, at least. In retrospect, i agree 100% with every move they made, but at the time, it sure looked like it was just more of the same from an ownership that appeared to prize saving a buck over winning some games. It made me mad, and i understand why it would make him even madder.

 

anyhow, i'd still rather have Choi + $7.5 million, so this is probably moot. but i just wanted to defend Lee a bit. I agree, at the time that trade was made it made me mad. Cliff was a bonafide hitter, and he was the "franchise" player. Derek only let his emotions go to his head, and he had a reason to do so.

 

Don't get me wrong I love the DLee - Choi trade, but we can't compare them so early in the season ... and not to take anything away from Choi, but he has looked very shaky at first, he is too slow.

 

Bottom line ... We are not gonna miss the offense of the Encarnacion, Pudge and Dlee, but we are gonna miss their collective defense

 

Encarnacion > Cabrera

Derek Lee > Choi

Pudge > Castro/Redmond

 

we are talking about 2 gold glovers and a potential gold glover in Encarnacion. All against 3 average fielders in comparison to the other 3 .... we have seen the difference early in the season, and it will carry on the throughout the year. I just hope it doesnt come at critical times.

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I have no doubt that D Lee will end up with better stats than Choi, but it won't be that big of a difference. To me saving 7 million dollars is huge especially since we get rid of the contracts of Mike Hampton and Pudge after this year(I think, Pudge may have one more year). Choi is still learning the game, and he will more than likely improve. Defensively he has been excellent. He made a few nice picks last night and a nice catch near the stands. If Choi can get within 10% of what D Lee did last year then I am happy.

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