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Official Offense Thread


jonnylons
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Here are some cold facts for you all:

 

2003

751Rs/162Gs = 4.6 runs a game

 

2004

301Rs/68Gs = 4.4 runs a game

 

The difference?

162-68 = 94

94x4.4 = 414Rs

 

Total (414+301) 715Rs this season at this rate (vs. 751 last season)

 

We need to pick up another 36 runs this season in order to STATISTICALLY compare to last year's team.

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Now, with our starting pitching and our improved - yes, vastly improved - bullpen settling in for 94 games the rest of the way, those 36 runs are not as necessary to be on pace for 91 wins. In fact, as it is, that is way below .5 runs a game that we would have to score in addition the rest of the way.

 

My point? This team is struggling now but there is plenty of season left to win this (we are still in 1st, but the Chicken Littles out there see that disappearing very soon). Regardless of how well the other teams play, we have a chance to beat anyone on any night because of our pitching. No one in our division comes even close to our pitching staff in terms of talent.

 

I like our chances. And I think we have enough talent within our system to overcome any...uh...shortcomings.

 

And that is not being a :homer

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Now, with our starting pitching and our improved - yes, vastly improved - bullpen settling in for 94 games the rest of the way, those 36 runs are not as necessary to be on pace for 91 wins. In fact, as it is, that is way below .5 runs a game that we would have to score in addition the rest of the way.

 

My point? This team is struggling now but there is plenty of season left to win this (we are still in 1st, but the Chicken Littles out there see that disappearing very soon). Regardless of how well the other teams play, we have a chance to beat anyone on any night because of our pitching. No one in our division comes even close to our pitching staff in terms of talent.

 

I like our chances. And I think we have enough talent within our system to overcome any...uh...shortcomings.

 

And that is not being a :homer

Yeah, there is no reason to panic.

 

Yet there is reason to be concerned. By this time last year the team had pulled it together and was on the winning track and gaining momentum.

 

We are still struggling, and underperforming....and that is concerning.

 

If we start playing up to our ability, no doubt we can win the division. The million dollar question is when will it come together?

 

The FO is working hard to address the BP situation. The next month will show us the effect of these latest moves.

 

We may not need to get another bat right now, but depending on how it goes, may have to right after the AS break. That is the timeframe I am looking at.

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Now, with our starting pitching and our improved - yes, vastly improved - bullpen settling in for 94 games the rest of the way, those 36 runs are not as necessary to be on pace for 91 wins. In fact, as it is, that is way below .5 runs a game that we would have to score in addition the rest of the way.

 

My point? This team is struggling now but there is plenty of season left to win this (we are still in 1st, but the Chicken Littles out there see that disappearing very soon). Regardless of how well the other teams play, we have a chance to beat anyone on any night because of our pitching. No one in our division comes even close to our pitching staff in terms of talent.

 

I like our chances. And I think we have enough talent within our system to overcome any...uh...shortcomings.

 

And that is not being a :homer

Yeah, there is no reason to panic.

 

Yet there is reason to be concerned. By this time last year the team had pulled it together and was on the winning track and gaining momentum.

 

We are still struggling, and underperforming....and that is concerning.

 

If we start playing up to our ability, no doubt we can win the division. The million dollar question is when will it come together?

 

The FO is working hard to address the BP situation. The next month will show us the effect of these latest moves.

 

We may not need to get another bat right now, but depending on how it goes, may have to right after the AS break. That is the timeframe I am looking at. I agree, and I think that is sensible. We have to really just hold tight until after the ASB to see not only where we stand, but also where these pretenders are. The cream and the crop, so to speak.

 

We dont know what is available until that point. I dont feel comfortable making a deal for a bat right now because a) we may overpay, b) better options could become available if we wait it out and c) we have the talent currently to get through this slump. And I also feel if we find what seems like a good option now, it may not be that significant of an upgrade and we could just wait and then that opportunity will fall into our hands.

 

Patience and dont panic. This is a marathon, not a sprint. I think that is the best call.

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Truthfully, if you told me that we would lose Fudge, Encarnacion, Lee, Hollandsworth and that Conine would be struggling and Castro would fall apart and that we would only be scoring .2 runs less a game than last season AND still be in first place - I would think you were crazy!

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I think calling this a vastly improved bullpen is getting a little ahead of ourselves, no?

It's too early to say we have improved the BP at all. All of these additions have storied pasts, and we are counting on the relaxed atmosphere in So. Fla. to bring the best out of them.

 

Come back in a month, and then we will know where we are at.

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I agree that we're in pretty good shape to be as messed up as we are right now and still be in first place; however I looked at June as a big "distance ourselves" time (at the start of the year). I wanted to soar into July, not limp. Oh well, maybe it lights a fire under Beinfest to make a big-bat priority #1. I like the Koch trade, but offense would have been nicer to add at this point.

 

Either way, it's much better to slump a month before the deadline than a month after.

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I think calling this a vastly improved bullpen is getting a little ahead of ourselves, no?

At the very least one of the more effective relievers just came off the DL (Wayne). That's a start.

 

 

I do think we need to make a move, but my opinion is it shouldn't be and will not be an impact bat such as Beltran.

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I think we need to stop putting our pitchers on the defensive and Jack needs to stop benching Choi so much. Choi is our OBP leader and is hot right now.

I agree with that. Choi is an everyday player. Jack has been getting a little too cute with the lineup. Well...not cute enough. Needs to put Conine 3 - but you all knew that was coming... :mischief

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I think calling this a vastly improved bullpen is getting a little ahead of ourselves, no?

It's too early to say we have improved the BP at all. All of these additions have storied pasts, and we are counting on the relaxed atmosphere in So. Fla. to bring the best out of them.

 

Come back in a month, and then we will know where we are at. Talent-wise, there is no debate. Koch and Benitez are more talented than Urbina and Fox - BY FAR.

 

Add to the equation that Oliver has been effective, Howard has a live arm and could be very gnasty, Wayne has been effective, Phelps (although in AAA) has been effective, Bump has had his moments, Manzanillo looks like he has resurrected his career - I would say we are doing quite well with arms right now. It is only a matter of time until our bullpen straightens out.

 

I agree that I was hoping June to be our break out month, and it hasnt. It does seem, Cape, that every team we run into is hot right now. But we are taking care of business and getting the job done. We are treading water and that is not bad for a team that is admittedly struggling.

 

I think we are shaping up to be a very very strong team in the second half.

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