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Kerry leads in most battleground states 11-4


Flying_Mollusk
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Yeah...Bush is running away with this.... nope.

 

 

Kerry beyond margin of error:

 

New Hampshire: Kerry-48.1% Bush-44.5%

Pennsylvania: Kerry-50.6% Bush-47.5%

Michigan: Kerry-51.9% Bush-45.9%

Wisconsin: Kerry- 50.3% Bush-47.9%

Iowa: Kerry-50.3% Bush-47.3%

Minnesota: Kerry-51.7% Bush-42%

New Mexico: Kerry-54.3% Bush-41.6%

Oregon: Kerry-53.9% Bush-41.9%

Washington: Kerry-52.8% Bush-44.1%

 

Kerry within margin of error:

 

Florida: Kerry-48.1% Bush-47.6%

Arkansas: Kerry-46.6% Bush-46.5%

 

Bush within margin of error:

 

Nevada: Kerry-46.6 Bush-48.8%

 

Bush beyond margin of error:

 

Missouri: Kerry-46.1% Bush-51.5

Ohio: Kerry-46.8% Bush-50.1%

West Virginia: Kerry-38.8% Bush-51.2%

 

 

 

Again, these are the lastest Zogby polls. People said they think Zogby was who they thought was reliable.

 

http://www.race2004.net

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That's funny, because the results on Meet the Press yesterday were the complete opposite of what you posted.

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Last time I check, Mason Dixon didn't nail The 2000 election, Zogby did however.

 

Mason Dixon also had bush up by 9 in NH, I don't know about you but I've lived a few years in NH, mostly summers and that state is so divided, John F Kennedy himself wouldn't have a 9% lead in NH. That shot their cred right there.

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As I remember, you said Kerry shouldnt have fought back when the general consensus was that he waited too long to fight back. Are you saying his fighting back had a negative effect? Plus Kerry had 7 point leads in mid August. I think the RNC had a little larger effect tehre on that one.

 

Plus if we are to apply your "where there is smoke, there is fire" theory on the general public, shouldnt the links that were connected between Bush and the Swifties have had the effect you predict?

 

Finally, I recall you saying that Kerry was torched now post RNC or predicted such. Clearly now youre making your predictions based on an alternative reality.

 

Sounds to me like Tuesday Morning QBing.

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As for the RNC, I don't think I said anything more than Kerry would be damaged by misbehaving "protesters" (which I think he was). I paid no attention to the RNC (or DNC) and didn't listen to any of it at all. Conventions are largely worthless artifacts these days.

 

Of course if you feel I've said something more, or something damning, feel free to provide some DIRECT QUOTES from some of my past posts to support your claims. Vague hand waving isn't terribly productive or credible.

 

You misunderstood what I said. I didnt say you thought Kerry would be adversley affected by the RNC but that you more or less implied Kerry was finished a few times due to the post RNC bounce, which I, but much more so Rune, said would subside mid-Sept.

 

Here are some things youve said from a cursory search. I dont have time to search through all your posts.

 

Kerry's biggest strength initially was his relative obscurity to the rest of the country outside MA. Now that people are getting a taste, it doesn't taste very good to them...

 

The dems have shot their whole quiver, and tactically have fallen for a few traps that hurt a bit, and stuck their foot into others that produced some devastating sound bites for Bush.

 

The people need some fresh meat. I don't see it happening.

 

 

Sounds like a pundit making a prediction. Clearly that prediction isnt the case.

 

I said something like the charges shouldn't have been dignified with a response because that would give the story more legs and traction (which it did). It turned out that SOME of the allegations were in fact true - the christmas in Cambodia fiction for instance. The whole mess would have been better off buried or ignored.

 

The swiftboaters never actually attacked Kerry on the Cambodia thing and that never become the front page news as you predicted it would. Most of it dealt with one rescue incedent and one silver star. So the swift boaters had an effect based on this, not on Xmas in Cambodia. So essentially you conveniently give yourself credit for predicting the effect of the primary swiftboat attacks but ignore the failed prediction on the plausible secondary attack and the failed prediction on how Kerry should have dealt with them. Like I said, Tuesday morning QBing.

 

Q: Do you think Kerry's SwiftVet counter attack and denials generated more Kerry voters?

 

 

The answer to the rhetorical question is no. But you ignore that the non-response would lead to no loss of voters. The question is, does Kerry non-response lead to more losses than he gains by ignoring them or does his response lead to less losses when compared to his gains? I think the consensus amongst many was that my delaying in responding, he lost more voters than he would have gained by ignoring them, especially in the period he did ignore them.

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All these polls are such a waste of time and money. Gallup and Zogby and whoever else should just quit this s*** and donate their savings to a good cause or something.

 

I really think these polls are going to be particularly off the mark this year anyway.

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Im not asserting that Kerry has won this thing. But post RNC, a lot of people said this thing was over. Pundits were making reference to Dukakis and Mondale territory. That cleary hasnt been the case. As people like Rune and furman have stated, the bounce will subside and this election is just going to come down to the wire. But that was lost in the post RNC hoopla. And its not just conservatives. I had to slap around some solid Kerry supporters to get them not to give up.

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Another thing I heard buzzing around campus today is record youth voter registration which does not bode well for the Repubs. Some predict a 50+ turnout ratio for the 18-25 vote which has only happened 2 other times (92 and 74?).

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Yeah, I saw that in the Alligator too. I'm pleasantly surprised that young people are taking part in the democratic process. I originally believed Kerry had a snowballs chance in hell of winning in Florida, but with such a large number of youngns voting, we may just see an upset of sorts.

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I think you can safely attribute the Bush jump to the RNC.? Of course its more convienent to you if thats not the case.

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Did anyone pay any attention to the RNC? I certainly didn't. I didn't watch even 30 seconds of it.

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Well, a lot of Florida didn't because of Hurricane Frances. Who's got time to listen to a bunch of political platitues when a category 4 is coming to git ya?

 

Round the country, the RNC got major play, though...

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Guest Moneyball

I think you can safely attribute the Bush jump to the RNC.? Of course its more convienent to you if thats not the case.

567012[/snapback]

 

Did anyone pay any attention to the RNC? I certainly didn't. I didn't watch even 30 seconds of it.

567048[/snapback]

 

Well, a lot of Florida didn't because of Hurricane Frances. Who's got time to listen to a bunch of political platitues when a category 4 is coming to git ya?

 

Round the country, the RNC got major play, though...

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oh hell yeah the RNC got major play, they actually got a noticeable bounce in the polls.

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