State Jobless Levels

State Jobless Levels Could Aid

Kerry in Ohio, Bush in Florida

October 22, 2004

There are no two more fiercely contested states in the presidential sweepstakes than Florida and Ohio. A glance at the state unemployment rates, released this morning, shows why the Bush camp is slightly more hopeful about Florida and the Kerry campaign a bit more optimistic about Ohio.

The unemployment rate in the Sunshine State was 4.5% last month, well below the national average and down from 5.1% a year earlier. Both the number and the trend are encouraging to Republicans. The Florida jobless rate at the end of the Clinton administration was 3.8%.

In Ohio, the jobless rate improved slightly from 6.3% last month but still hovers at 6%, well above the national average and virtually the same as a year before. This is up sharply from the 3.9% unemployment rate in Ohio when George W. Bush took office.

The race is exceedingly close in both these battleground states, but the Kerry economic pitch seems to resonate more in Ohio. One recent Democratic survey there found almost 70% of Ohio residents thought the country was on the wrong track.

The jobless rate is the best available indicator for the economy of an individual state. It isn't, however, always determinative. The highest unemployment rate in the country is in Alaska -- 7.6% -- which is a certain Bush state; the lowest is Hawaii -- 3.1% -- a blue state on Election Day.

Both sides could take some small solace from today's numbers in battleground states. The Bush forces had to be pleased with Nevada, where the rate dropped slightly to 3.9%, down sharply from a year ago and even lower than at the beginning of the Bush administration. But the persistent high rates in Michigan (6.8%) and Oregon (7.3%) make those Democratic-leaning states even tougher for the president.

Some political experts argue that the direction matters as much as the bottom-line numbers. If people think things are getting better, they are more inclined to vote for the incumbent, and vice-versa. Small declines in the unemployment rate in both Colorado and Minnesota should give heart to the Bush campaign. But Iowa, and Wisconsin, two key battleground states, both showed an up tick in joblessness last month. In all of the battleground states (except for Nevada), today's unemployment rate is dramatically higher than four years ago.

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