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Kerry now leading Electoral College


Beinfest4Prez
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This site has gone back and forth almost every day.

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Thats because he takes in the new polls and adds them up to equate to who is winning the electoral vote. Its unbiased, read where he gets the polls from. Or is that too hard?

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I don't understand what you're trying to say with that post, but I'm just saying that site has had the damn thing swing back and forth daily for the past month. I think it was just yesterday Bush was at 285. This site is simply based on the latest poll.

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Kerry taking Wisconsin would be huge. Bush is losing there in all three polls mentioned. He also seems to be solidifying PA again. I dont see Michigan going Bush. Yeah the polls are closer than they should be but Bush is not polling any higher than 47 and an incumbent doesnt get reelected with 47. Kerry getting Florida or Ohio wins it for him IMO.

 

Election night is going to be scary but Im holding out hope on four factors.

 

1. The turnout factor. 2000 was supposed to be all Bush according to the polls. But they misread the turnout factor. A surge of voters came out and made it close. Gallup doesnt adjust for such things.

 

It seems this time around its actually more tight than 2000. Another surge in turnout will be key for Kerry. It could push him ahead the way it brought Gore back in 2000.

 

Despite attempts by the Republicans to prevent people from voting, I dont think they will shutdown the impending surge of voters. Some people think we will have the highest turnout in 40 some odd years. Whatever the argument, that can only favor Kerry. It always favors dems.

 

2. The incumbent rule. As stated before, incumbents tend to get on election day, what they poll in the polls. That is, polls are a better indicator of what an incumbent will get. Incumbents rarely if ever get better than the polls but sometimes do worse. Lets look at some states and polls:

 

Florida will be the example:

 

Bush's percent polling

 

Zogby 46.7

Insider advantage 47

Rasmussen 48

Mason Dixon 49

Florida poll(Lakeland ledger)-46.7

 

Average 47.5

 

That leaves 52.5 of voters remaining. For Bush to then win, he would have to have Kerry get 47.4 and that would mean Nader and third parties getting 5% of the vote. That's best case scenario for Bush. I dont think that happens.

 

Looking at other states, Michigan is even worse. He isnt polling any higher than 47.4 in any poll.

 

Pennsylvania is a little less in terms of average than Florida.

 

Wisconsin, his highest poll is 48 but as low as 44 so Id venture that its a bit below 47.

 

NH, no higher than 47. No chance at that.

 

NJ? 46 at best and as low as 38. Its a joke to think he gets this one.

 

MN? 48 highest but as low as 41. Id say his average is at best 46.5

 

He has been doing much better in Ohio though, averaging around 48.5-49.

 

A Kerry win of Florida or Ohio would take Bush. I hope he takes Florida because it allows him to lose a midwest state. Taking Ohio leaves less margin of error.

 

btw, I ignore strategic vision and democracy core in my averaging. They are party polls. Zobgy, for those who hate him, is countered with Rassmusen who tends Republican. In fact, so does Mason Dixon.

 

 

 

3. And the third factor-Kerry the closer. Everyone's been saying it for as long as I can remember. John Kerry finishing campaings very well. The debates brought him back. And now he has to do what he did in his Senate run. He has to close it out. He has more money on hand than Bush. Why? Because he held out in that horrible August month. Bush's strategy was to dispatch Kerry after the RNC Dukakis style. It almost worked until that first debate erased all that spent money. Kerry took the pummeling, undid the damage with the first debate, and now has more money than Bush. Kind of like Muhammad ali eh? Well not Kerry will go all out. His fresh start message is a great one. I hope it convinces people to get with him.

 

4. The undecides. From what I can tell, most polls have them swinging Kerry's way. If they are large enough a group, they could give it to Kerry.

 

 

 

These four factors are what Im hoping for on November 2nd. I could be utterly and totally full of crap. Bush might win this one. Im not making any bold predictions. But the night of Nov2nd is gonna be a tense and amazing night.

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Some news of note: I'm a volunteer for THe Kerry Camp here in The Hazleton Area, a big undecided area that Bush would need to take to win(West of Hazleton is a huge conservative district so you usually need The Hazleton Area and Montgomery COuntry to win PA as a democrat).

 

Kerry solidified Montgomery with his rally with Clinton but as I was phonebanking yesterday to make sure all The Democratic Votes in our strategy were going the right way. Hazleton is about 60% dem but we have a republican mayor and a strong pro life area so those factors really make it a toss up. If we saw a lot of democrats undecided because of The Abortion question it would be a horrible sign for Kerry. Yesterday of The 400 People I talked too, I got the question two times and each listened to my point of view as a catholic who is Pro Life but realizes it's not as important as the other issues. The other phone bankers got the same reception.

 

We also got a fleet of really positive "Yes" to Kerry's along with making sure all The Elderly have rides to the polls and also those who's polling places were changed made sure they knew their new ones. So we have our fleet of transportation ready, we have our guys at each polling places, and the foot soilders(what I'm signed up for) are ready election day to make sure each voter is going out and getting Kerry elected. Saturday was a very good sign for Kerry with the reactions we got.

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Some news of note: I'm a volunteer for THe Kerry Camp here in The Hazleton Area, a big undecided area that Bush would need to take to win(West of Hazleton is a huge conservative district so you usually need The Hazleton Area and Montgomery COuntry to win PA as a democrat).

 

Kerry solidified Montgomery with his rally with Clinton but as I was phonebanking yesterday to make sure all The Democratic Votes in our strategy were going the right way. Hazleton is about 60% dem but we have a republican mayor and a strong pro life area so those factors really make it a toss up. If we saw a lot of democrats undecided because of The Abortion question it would be a horrible sign for Kerry. Yesterday of The 400 People I talked too, I got the question two times and each listened to my point of view as a catholic who is Pro Life but realizes it's not as important as the other issues. The other phone bankers got the same reception.

 

We also got a fleet of really positive "Yes" to Kerry's along with making sure all The Elderly have rides to the polls and also those who's polling places were changed made sure they knew their new ones. So we have our fleet of transportation ready, we have our guys at each polling places, and the foot soilders(what I'm signed up for) are ready election day to make sure each voter is going out and getting Kerry elected. Saturday was a very good sign for Kerry with the reactions we got.

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:thumbup Great to hear.

 

I really wish I could get back to Florida on Tuesday and help in Brevard county but I cant afford to miss class. The cadre of volunteers on election day is huge for dems. I dont think thee 527s are done having their big effect either.

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Most of these things go back to the 60s right? Thats around maybe 10-12 elections theyve gotten right and sometimes have exceptions. I dont think that statistically much of a pattern. I mean a lot of things happen to be right 10 times in a row. Im sure if you go through all of the activities you do in a day, there will bound to be things which correctly predict Marlin wins in a 10 game stretch.

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Well, if the Pack holds on and that little kid election thing chooses Bush (I heard it had), we'll have two time proven indicators arguing with each other.

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You also have The Consumer Confidence ratings below 100 which goes against the incumbenent and I believe The Stock Market Performance in october favors Kerry.

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