Rune Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 296 - 242 with Kerry taking all the big three Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodge Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Where's that from? I just can't see Kerry taking OH, PA, and FL. Bush is at least going to win one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rune Posted November 1, 2004 Author Share Posted November 1, 2004 Where's that from? I just can't see Kerry taking OH, PA, and FL. Bush is at least going to win one. 605531[/snapback] Electoral Vote and Race 2004 Net, Zogby Polls and Gallup back it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g8trz2003 Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 i cant open up electoral-vote for some reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lcyberlina Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 CF where did you get the idea that Bush is ahead on PA? That is absolutely ridiculous. PA goes Kerry, so will Ohio. Florida can go Bush, but in that case, Kerry still gets 276 EVs, carrying Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying_Mollusk Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 CF where did you get the idea that Bush is ahead on PA? That is absolutely ridiculous. PA goes Kerry, so will Ohio. Florida can go Bush, but in that case, Kerry still gets 276 EVs, carrying Iowa. 605548[/snapback] I think he is saying Bush will win one of the big three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lcyberlina Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 I have a funny feeling that Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico and Florida will break for Kerry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying_Mollusk Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Right now, Im in total shock that Gallup is showing Kerry taking Florida and Ohio. His lead in Ohio is well outside the margin of error too. His registered voter lead in Florida is outside the margin of error. This might be the first time gallup has had Kerry doing this well ever. Gallup tends to show well for Bush. Zogby has Kerry losing Ohio but winning Pennsylvania and gallup has him winning Ohio and losing Pennsylvania among likely voters. But gallup also has him winning Pennsylvania among registered voters In addition, both have him winning Florida which would be monumental. The weirdest thing I found in the gallup polls was Wisconsin. They have Kerry winning by 8 among likely voters but Bush winning by 3 among registered. Thats the first time Ive ever seen Bush doing better in the registered category and worse in the likely. Its not even close either. Gallup has been real weird this election season. Whatever happens, Im nervous as hell. Tuesday is going to be a wild night. Im just hoping for Kerry, that what is being captured by Gallup and zogby are the new surge in voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying_Mollusk Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 I have a funny feeling that Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico and Florida will break for Kerry. 605564[/snapback] Im hoping so too. This stuff is starting to creep into my dreams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dancin'_Homer Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Gallup has been real weird this election season. All of the polling has been weird this year. I think the results will show that the end of polling as we've known it is past. Whatever happens, Im nervous as hell. 605565[/snapback] My sentiments exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhishPhan Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 i cant open up electoral-vote for some reason 605536[/snapback] try www.electoral-vote1.com, it works with numbers up to 8 since they have 8 servers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhishPhan Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 If the election were held today we project: Bush and Kerry tie the electoral college with 269 votes each. Unless an elector changes his vote (unlikely, but legal and possible), the 12th Amendment to the Constitution dictates the matter to be resolved by the House of Representatives. Each state delegation receives one vote. If a delegation is evenly split on which candidate to vote for, no vote is cast. 26 votes are needed to win. The vice-president is elected seperately from the president through a simple majority vote of the Senate. www.race2004.net Kerry-Cheney '04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lcyberlina Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 BREAKING NEWS: Swing states lean to Kerry By Susan Page, USA TODAY WASHINGTON ? Sen. John Kerry has erased President Bush's modest lead and the two candidates head into Election Day tied at 49%-49%, a nationwide USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows as an extraordinarily bitter and expensive campaign prepared to end. Across the dozen battleground states expected to determine the winner, Kerry holds a 5-percentage-point edge ? including small leads among likely voters in the critical states of Ohio and Florida. He trails by a similar margin in the third big battleground, Pennsylvania. (Related link: States pushed to front of race) But USA TODAY polls nationwide and in six competitive states show a contest that either candidate could win. The battle between mammoth get-out-the-vote operations and the prospect of a flood of new voters are key to whether Bush wins four more years or joins his father as a one-term president. The findings suggest that Osama bin Laden's warning to Americans in a video broadcast Friday failed to provide the boost for Bush that some analysts predicted. That development and the disclosure last week that 377 tons of high explosives were missing from an Iraqi site U.S. troops failed to secure seemed to have damaged his standing. A week earlier, Bush had led Kerry on who would better handle the situation in Iraq by 11 percentage points; that edge shrank to 4 points. The 22-point advantage Bush had held in handling terrorism was cut in half. Last week, Bush led Kerry 51%-46%. The new survey of 1,573 likely voters, taken Friday through Sunday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. "It seems like a scary Halloween for George Bush," Kerry pollster Mark Mellman says. "People in this country clearly want a fresh start." Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said that the race is close but that Bush is in a good position. He disputes Gallup's assumptions about the 3% of likely voters who said they were undecided. Gallup's formula assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent. Without allocating those voters, Bush led Kerry 49%-47% among likely voters. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry led Bush 48%-46%. The candidates crisscrossed the same territory on Sunday. Bush stumped in Florida ? with rallies in Miami, Tampa and Gainesville ? before flying to Cincinnati. Kerry campaigned in Dayton and New Hampshire before heading to Tampa. Bush asked for support from wavering Democrats and vowed to prosecute the war on terror. Kerry promised a "flurry of activity" and "real steps" if elected to protect the nation's security. In the surveys: ?A 52% majority said they were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the USA. Bush's job-approval rating slipped to 48%, below the 50% benchmark critical for incumbents. ?Terrorism was the most important issue cited by voters in the national poll and in Florida and Pennsylvania. But in four Midwestern states ? Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin ? the economy was ranked first. ?In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%. And Ralph Nader? The independent candidate who helped swing the 2000 election to Bush isn't much of a factor this time. Among 1,573 likely voters, he was backed by 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lcyberlina Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Kerry is leading 298 to 231 in the Electoral Vote. He gets Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iwoa. And I dare predict that the deadlock on New Mexico will break for Kerry as well, making the victory a whopping 303 EV for Kerry. Even if we lose Florida (in you wildest dreams Bushies) we still get 276 EVs :arms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lcyberlina Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Unless the Bushies find a way to steal the election again. :blink: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamrock Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Whomever wins I hope it is clear on Nov. 2-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fritz Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Whomever wins I hope it is clear on Nov. 2-3 605583[/snapback] Same here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Juanky Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 If the election were held today we project: Bush and Kerry tie the electoral college with 269 votes each. Unless an elector changes his vote (unlikely, but legal and possible), the 12th Amendment to the Constitution dictates the matter to be resolved by the House of Representatives. Each state delegation receives one vote. If a delegation is evenly split on which candidate to vote for, no vote is cast. 26 votes are needed to win. The vice-president is elected seperately from the president through a simple majority vote of the Senate. www.race2004.net Kerry-Cheney '04 605571[/snapback] Why would the House not vote Bush in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dancin'_Homer Posted November 1, 2004 Share Posted November 1, 2004 Since each state gets only 1 vote, the concern is that states with split delegations would abstain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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