Posted March 25, 200520 yr NL East is a four-team race By Rob Neyer, ESPN Insider Welcome, everyone, to the 2005 edition of "Rob Neyer Picks Somebody Other Than the Braves." Yes, again. It's become something of a comfortable tradition with me: Predict a second- or third-place finish for Braves. Receive insulting e-mail messages from Braves fans. Watch Braves win another division title. Receive I-told-you-so e-mail messages from Braves fans. And each spring, just as the flowers bloom and the ducks have ducklings, the process begins anew. Before you write, I do understand that the Braves have recently added one of the best starting pitchers in the game. I also understand that: One of the Braves' first basemen (Julio Franco) played with Pete Rose, Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton ? and Sparky Lyle. Their presumptive ace (John Smoltz) hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season since 1997. Their presumptive closer (Danny Kolb) struck out exactly 21 batters last season. Their presumptive corner outfielders (Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi) combined last season for eight home runs and 38 RBI (not to mention a lovely .289 on-base percentage). Do the Braves have a legitimate shot in the East? You bet. Are they clearly the best team in the East? No, they're not. And even if you believe they're marginally the best team (they might be), they're still not a great bet to win the division, because at least two other teams have legitimate shots, too. Three, if you count the Mets (and maybe you should). So, if you can bet on the Braves or the field, you should bet on the field. There's a significantly better chance the Braves won't win than they will. And let me be a bit more specific about my reason for saying that ? In 2004, looking just at the things that generally lead to scoring runs and allowing them (that is, ignoring not only wins and losses, but also the actual runs that were scored and allowed), here's how the National League East standings should have wound up: Braves 92-70 Phillies 91-71 Marlins 86-76 Mets 76-86 Expos 68-94 I don't know about you, but what jumps out at me is that maybe the Braves and Phillies weren't really as far apart as their actual records suggested (the Braves finished 10 games ahead of the Phils). I know, I know ? the Braves won, and that's all that matters. That's true, when we're recalling those halcyon, sepia-tinged summer months of 2004. But at the moment we're considering 2005, and I promise you that those fake standings are better than your real standings at predicting the future. The moment the 2004 season ended, the Phillies were just as good as the Braves. Has what's happened in the months since pushed them ahead of the Braves? We've already reviewed the Braves' offseason changes; on the plus side, they've added roughly 300 excellent innings from John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. On the minus side, they've lost J.D. Drew and replaced him with, at best, league-average players. This analysis is simplistic, but I would argue that even after considering every other change and the likely improvements (few) and declines (many) of the holdovers, this team will need a bit of extra luck to win 92 games. And the Phillies? They've done almost nothing since winning 91 fake games. They lost Kevin Millwood, and replaced him with Jon Lieber. That's a wash. Second baseman Chase Utley is ready to play, but he might take some at-bats from Placido Polanco, a good hitter himself. The older players are a year older (bad thing), but so are the younger players (good thing). The biggest questions in the National League East concern Pedro Martinez and Smoltz; if they can each pitch 200 innings, their teams will be good. But on a team level, the biggest question concerns Philadelphia's starting pitchers. With Lieber and Cory Lidle, you know what you're getting (to the extent that you can ever know, when it comes to pitchers). But Gavin Floyd, Randy Wolf, Brett Myers and Vicente Padilla? If two of those four pitch decently, the Phillies are as good as anybody in the division. If they don't, that leaves the Marlins and the Mets to challenge the Braves. And you know who always wins that one.
March 25, 200520 yr Wow, another ESPN writer with no faith in the Marlins. 720309[/snapback] Read the last two sentences.
March 25, 200520 yr This is not a big deal, the Marls do better if they feel like underdogs (real underdogs, not second-highest payroll 'underdogs').
March 25, 200520 yr Wow, another ESPN writer with no faith in the Marlins. 720309[/snapback] Read the last two sentences. 720324[/snapback] But he makes it sound like the Phillies are Atlanta's biggest threat and then there are the "other two."
March 25, 200520 yr Every columnist in America is predicting the NL East will be a hard-fought contest between the Marlins, Mets, Phillies and Braves. Don't be too bothered by how they rank them. They're just predictions anyway, and I'm sure if their ego, editor and readers would allow them to they'd just predict a four-way tie.
March 25, 200520 yr Author I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies finish 4th in the division. 720337[/snapback] I wouldn't be surprised if they finished first, either. The have arguably the best bullpen and lineup in the division, and replacing Bowa with Manuel could really help that team.
March 25, 200520 yr I wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies finish 4th in the division. 720337[/snapback] I wouldn't be surprised if they finished first, either. The have arguably the best bullpen and lineup in the division, and replacing Bowa with Manuel could really help that team. 720413[/snapback] But Manuel has a history of choking when it comes down to thefinal postseason push.
March 25, 200520 yr This is not a big deal, the Marls do better if they feel like underdogs (real underdogs, not second-highest payroll 'underdogs'). 720327[/snapback] Does everyone of your posts have to be a shot at the Red Sox?
March 25, 200520 yr This is not a big deal, the Marls do better if they feel like underdogs (real underdogs, not second-highest payroll 'underdogs'). 720327[/snapback] Does everyone of your posts have to be a shot at the Red Sox? 720444[/snapback] If he does it one more time you, Passion, and I might have to teach him a little lesson in Red Sox subservience. :shifty
March 26, 200520 yr This is not a big deal, the Marls do better if they feel like underdogs (real underdogs, not second-highest payroll 'underdogs'). 720327[/snapback] Um, every team says that. What makes the Marlins' situation any different? Aside from that you're looking for a good story?
March 26, 200520 yr They picked us third??? I think we should give ESPN a nice big s*** burger to eat.
March 26, 200520 yr i can't fault anyone who picks the Braves to win this division. they've earned this respect - it's up to us to take this division from them.
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