Welcome to Day 3 of this ongoing five part series on the most competitive division in baseball, then NL East. Today is the third of the three most important parts of a baseball team, the relief pitching. The series will continue up until the fifth day, when it shall culminate in an overall team grade and division predictions.

 

Atlanta Braves- It?s all about the numbers

2004 Stats: 3.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 426 K, 212 BB, 65 HR

Additions: Danny Kolb (Trade- Milwaukee), Gabe White (FA)

Subtractions: John Smoltz (rotation), Antonio Alfonseca (FA), Travis Smith (FA), Juan Cruz (Trade- Oakland)

 

The Braves kept with their turnover initiative in the pitching staff and let their closer become a starter again and their setup man leave to division rival Florida. In their place comes Milwaukee?s closer, Danny Kolb, and the battle tested Gabe White. Now Mr. White comes over from the Yankees not exactly being the most consistent of relievers. Two of the last four years he?s had an ERA of 4.05 or less, which is solid for a non-closing reliever. However, the other two years in that four year span so ERAs of 6.25 in 2001 and 6.94 last season. The former can be partially forgiven because it was in Colorado, but the latter was split time between Cincinnati and New York, with ERAs over 6 in both stops. This was after doing the same exact thing the season before and posting respectable numbers then. But he?s nothing Leo Mazzone can?t fix, and Danny Kolb is nothing Mazzone can?t make better. While Kolb isn?t the type of strikeout dominant closer that Smoltz was, he does flat out give you performance. A solid WHIP for a reliever at 1.13, 39 of 44 saves completed with a 2.98 ERA and a .234 BAA are all very respectable numbers. He should also be a tad bit better this season, as tends to happen when pitchers put on the Atlanta Braves uniform.

 

Overall the bullpen has the looks of a solid corps of arms. Last season they weren?t dominant at all, allowing way too many baserunners for relief pitching but coming away unscathed most of the time. They didn?t blow people away outside of Smoltz and Cruz, both of whom are no longer with the pen for one reason or another, but they were effective when called upon. They still have one of the most effective lefty specialists in baseball in Tom Martin, and he?ll be in the group with Chris Reitsma and Kevin Gryboski, both coming off solid campaigns in 2004. If Roman Colon can continue his production over the more innings that are going to be asked of him this season, then this group is very formidable. And like anything that is Braves and pitching, you can?t argue with results.

 

Projected Bullpen:

R Danny Kolb - Closer

L Gabe White

L Tom Gordon

R Roman Colon

R Chris Reitsma

R Kevin Gryboski

 

Grade- B+/A-

 

Florida Marlins- More Questions than a Holly Quiz

2004 Stats: 4.25 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 498 K, 277 BB, 79 HR

Additions: Antonio Alfonseca (FA), Todd Jones (FA), John Riedling (FA), Jim Mecir (FA), Luke Hagerty (Rule V)

Subtractions: Armando Benitez (FA), Rudy Seanez (FA), Dave Weathers (FA), Nate Bump (Minors), Josias Manzanillo (FA)

 

The Marlins last year had arguably the best reliever in all of baseball, and then a lot of garbage for the majority of the season. Bullpen was always the biggest problem for Florida, and they tried to solve it at the deadline by bringing in Setup man extraordinaire Guillermo Mota and solid reliever Rudy Seanez to stop the bleeding on the bridge to Armando Benitez. This threesome gave the Marlins a very strong back end of the bullpen, and led them on the way to a late playoff surge that was ultimately a day late and a dollar short. One would think the Marlins would learn from this lesson and keep as many quality arms as possible right? Wrong. Gone are both Benitez and Seanez to NL West rivals, and departing with them is the solid middle relief man David Weathers and the not as solid Josias Manzanillo. Replacing them? Guillermo Mota jumps into the closer?s spot, and the Marlins went with the quantity over quality approach by signing several players to Major League contracts, including former closers Todd Jones and Antonio Alfonseca.

 

The bullpen, though solid on paper, is surrounded by question marks everywhere. Can Mota close? Can Jones pitch like he used to? Can Alfonseca pitch like he did last season and no the two before that? Can Riedling pitch like he did in April last season, and not like he did in May-September? Will Matt Perisho be used only against lefties this time instead of blowing games against righties? Will Jim Mecir bounce up from his troublesome spring and pitch well when it counts? Will Hagerty be 100% healthy and be able to stay on the roster? Will Tim Spooneybarger or Nate Bump be able to handle the call up if any of the arms now struggle? Some of these questions should be answered positively for the Fish, but if a good number don?t fall their way and quickly look for the Marlins to be shopping for relief at the trading deadline for the third year in a row.

 

Projected Bullpen:

R Guillermo Mota - Closer

R Todd Jones

R Antonio Alfonseca

L Matt Perisho

R John Riedling

R Jim Mecir

 

Grade: B-/B

 

New York Mets- There will be no shortage of innings for this group

2004 Stats: 3.74 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 345 K, 170 BB, 34 HR

Additions: Dae Sung Koo (Korea), Felix Heredia (Trade- New York AL)

Subtractions: Mike Stanton (Trade- New York AL), John Franco (Non Tendered), Ricky Bottalico (Non Tendered)

 

Whenever these things are done, the author comes in with some preconceived notions about how things are on each team. Generally these notions are correct, because they are based on observations that were made the season prior. However, doing the Mets bullpen, I want to know how in the world they put up the numbers they did. The Met pen I remember would blow stellar performances by their starters. But in running the numbers, the pen was not only decent but it was almost as good as the Brave pen which was so stellar last season. Braden Looper, who Marlins fans came to loathe due to high drama in the ninth inning, had a decent but not exactly closer material WHIP of 1.23, surrendering more hits than innings pitched. But he did convert 29 of 34 saves, not bad for a team that didn?t hand him many leads to lock down, and struck out more than 3 times the number of men he walked, and had a sparkling 2.70 ERA. Not exactly Cy Young material, but Mr. Looper seems to have found a home.

 

He doesn?t exactly have lilies and rose pedals on the bridge between the starters and himself, though. His two best setup men from last season, Mike Stanton and Ricky Bottalico, were traded and non-tendered, respectively. Replacing Stanton is fellow left hander Felix Heredia, who comes cross town from the pinstriped fellows with a sparkling 6.28 ERA, opponents hitting .278 against him, and a WHIP of 1.66. Not exactly domination numbers there, but a switch to the NL and the aid of pitching coach Rick Peterson should at least shave a little bit off those gaudy numbers. Attempting to fill Bottalico?s shoes will be Koo, the Korean implant, who will try to become the Kazuhiro Sasaki of South Korea and become a successful reliever in the Major Leagues. Time will tell on him, but if he doesn?t pan out the options are thin. Jay Seo will probably be in the pen with all the newcomers to the rotation, and he was very good last year there albeit only in 5.2 innings. New York also has a plethora of young arms who showed promise in for the most part limited innings last season, including Orber Moreno and Bartolome Fortunato, among others. The main issue with this Met pen is whether the veterans can shape up and if the youngsters can keep on performing, but they have a greater chance of answering their questions positively than the Marlins do.

 

Projected Bullpen

R Braden Looper - Closer

L Felix Heredia

L Dae Sung Koo

R Jae Wong Seo

R Bartolome Fortunato

R Matt Ginter

 

Grade: B/B+

 

Philadelphia Phillies- Heat is in no short supply

2004 Stats: 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 482 K, 219 BB, 31 HR

Additions: Terry Adams (FA), Full Year of Gavin Floyd (unless he starts)

Subtractions: Todd Jones (FA), Felix Rodriguez (Trade- New York)

 

On to the most celebrated bullpen in the division and maybe in the entire NL, the relief corps of the Philadelphia Phillies. Looking at the numbers from last season, they did some nice things. Ryan Madson had a great year in the pen, the relief as a gave up less homers than the Marlin and Met pens, both of them playing in severe pitcher?s park while the Phillies had the opposite. They also were strong despite the absence of their closer for most of the year, Billy Wagner. However, that doesn?t tell the whole story. The pen had a knack for blowing leads it was handed, as 5 of their regular relievers had 5 or more losses. The pen as a whole took 35 losses to its name, quite a bit for a team that suffered 76 total losses. The bullpen together blew 27 of 78 save chances, or 35% of the time that a pitcher took the hill with a try at saving the game. That doesn?t exactly classify you as a standout pen.

 

However, based on the premise that their pen was stellar last season, the Phillies didn?t do much. They signed Terry Adams, who resembled more of a batting practice machine than a pitcher with numbers of a 4.76 ERA, .302 Average Against, and 1.60 WHIP. Just to give you a taste of how horrendous a .302 Average Against is, NL average for all hitters was around .263. Mr. Adams surrendered an average 40 points higher than that. They traded one of their better relievers in Felix Rodriguez to acquire Kenny Lofton, with the notion that the pen was deep enough to carry the load. However, another injury to Billy Wagner, and this pen will suffer greatly. Tim Worrell is getting up there in age, with his performance having slipped each of the last three seasons. The Phillies will have to hope for a repeat from Ryan Madson and a solid performance from Gavin Floyd when he isn?t starting to be able to keep their status as having an elite pen. But with all these issues at hand, don?t be surprised to see Atlanta do better.

 

Projected Bullpen:

L Billy Wagner - Closer

R Tim Worrell

L Rheal Cormier

R Ryan Madson

R Gavin Floyd

R Amaury Telemaco

 

Grade: B+/A-

 

Washington Nationals- Surprisingly Solid

2004 Stats: 4.01 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 381 K, 202 BB, 60 HR

Additions: Antonio Osuna (FA)

Subtractions: Nothing

 

Maybe the most underrated bullpen in the National League now wears Nationals across their chest. This pen has almost everything you want out of a corps group ? youth, raw talent, and depth. They have one of the best lefty specialists in Joey Eischen, and also an up and coming lefty specialist in Joe Horgan who did very well against lefties last season in his first stint up with the big club. Luis Ayala is a stellar setup guy, and TJ Tucker has shown he can put up the numbers to cover what Ayala can?t. Chad Cordero, though young, is already among the top closers in the league recording just over a K per IP and with a nice 2.94 ERA.

 

The questions with this pen are natural for one this young. Will the arms be able to handle the pressure of the Show? Will they be able to keep up the performance? To be the best pen in the division, the Nats will have to do some things differently and other things more effectively. Can Cordero close more games than the 14 of 18 he nailed down last season? Will Rocky Biddle bounce back and be an effective setup man? Can Ayala keep up this incredible production? Tough questions, of course, however a pen with Cordero, Ayala, Eischen, Horgan, Rauch, and TJ Tucker on paper is the most talented in the division, even if the results aren?t completely there yet. That won?t be what you see Opening Day, but don?t be surprised to see Frank Robinson go to it sometime during the season.

 

Projected Bullpen:

R Chad Cordero - Closer

R Luis Ayala

L Joey Eischen

L Joe Horgan

R Antonio Osuna

R TJ Tucker

 

Grade: B+/A-

 

Overall Bullpen Rankings:

1- Atlanta Braves (A-)

2- Philadelphia Phillies (B+)

3- Washington Nationals (B+)

4- New York Mets (B)

5- Florida Marlins (B-)

 

Tomorrow: Benches, Defense, and Intangibles

 

Day 1: Lineups

Day 2: Starting Pitching

Projected Bullpen

R Braden Looper - Closer

L Felix Heredia

L Dae Sung Koo

R Jae Wong Seo

R Bartolome Fortunato

R Matt Ginter

 

 

Two ... maybe three of those pitchers will make the bullpen. Koo will most likely be optioned to Norfolk, Seo has no chance of making the team now with Ishii acquired, Fortunato (although talented) is likely the odd man out in this year's pen thanks to dominant performances by Roberto Hernandez and Heath Bell.

 

The most likely situation is:

 

LR-Matt Ginter

MR-Heredia

MR-Mike Matthews

MR-Scott Strickland/Roberto Herenandez

MR-Heath Bell

MR-Mike DeJean

CL-Braden Looper

 

BTW, Parra was a free agent. He's no longer with the team.

Projected Bullpen

R Braden Looper - Closer

L Felix Heredia

L Dae Sung Koo

R Jae Wong Seo

R Bartolome Fortunato

R Matt Ginter

 

 

Two ... maybe three of those pitchers will make the bullpen. Koo will most likely be optioned to Norfolk, Seo has no chance of making the team now with Ishii acquired, Fortunato (although talented) is likely the odd man out in this year's pen thanks to dominant performances by Roberto Hernandez and Heath Bell.

 

The most likely situation is:

 

LR-Matt Ginter

MR-Heredia

MR-Mike Matthews

MR-Scott Strickland/Roberto Herenandez

MR-Heath Bell

MR-Mike DeJean

CL-Braden Looper

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Thanks for the clarification. Pen has been the hardest to project because there's so many arms competing and no one seems to have information on it, but I went along with what mlb.com and espn.com were telling me the current rosters were and by what performance from last season would dictate be the pen. I still think the ranking stays, however, as the Nats, Braves, and Phils all have superior pens and the Marlins' pen has to answer alot of questions.

Oh, I agree. I've been following all spring and I'm still not sure what the pen will look like. The Braves, Phils, and Nats are the cream of the crop. The Mets have talented but unproven arms and some players that are more or less reclmation projects. The Marlins have names but the stats aren't there, and the lack of a proven closer really hurts. I definitely gree with your rankings.

Tommy and and that other guy were discussing the possibility of the Mets acquiring Urbina during the game.

It sucks we're so clueless on how reliable our bullpen will be but at least we can still count on Mota.

You guys worry too much about the bullpen. Most relievers have relatively unpredictable seasons... but what you want is to have 6-7 relievers that each have the potential to be outstanding during the regular season. Among the 6-7 that we do have, at least 2-3 will have outstanding seasons. If we can get three guys to have outstanding seasons we have the 7-8-9 inning guys we need... the other guys can be inconsistent, but that's predictable among relievers. So, our bullpen has a chance to be outstanding overall (imagine if four of our relievers had outstanding seasons) or it could be mediocre or a little worse than mediocre. That's basically the range. Bullpen is a question mark for most teams. If we're in the race come trading deadline and our bullpen is suspect, we'll make a trade and fill that need. No worries. We're certainly starting off much better than last year.

At Orioles Hangout they're saying the Orioles are trying to trade one of their relievers, and it isn't likely Julio. BJ Ryan sounds awful good right now for the Marlins pen, maybe give then Stokes and/or Willingham. :mischief2

At Orioles Hangout they're saying the Orioles are trying to trade one of their relievers, and it isn't likely Julio. BJ Ryan sounds awful good right now for the Marlins pen, maybe give then Stokes and/or Willingham. :mischief2

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Likely Josh Parrish.

 

 

100% agree with you, prin. Make that 110%.

 

I think it wouldn't be as much as a worry for teams if their managers took a risk and abandoned set roles. You stand to win many more games when your best relievers pitch in the most crucial of spots and your weakest pitchers with a 3-run lead.

Likely Josh Parrish.

 

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Still, John Parrish>>Perisho

Projected Bullpen

R Braden Looper - Closer

L Felix Heredia

L Dae Sung Koo

R Jae Wong Seo

R Bartolome Fortunato

R Matt Ginter

 

Wheres Roberto Hernandez?

 

You forgot to mention the Dejean may make the pen despite his ligament tear in his calf. Also Orber Moreno is probably going to be back before the all-starbreak...

 

Wheres scott strickland, hes supposed to be the main middle man...

 

And Koo is more of a Long reliever-Lefty guy, not really like a harder throwing closer type like Sasaki, but the simularity is there both trying to see if they can compete in the majors...

Projected Bullpen:

L Billy Wagner - Closer

R Tim Worrell

L Rheal Cormier

R Ryan Madson

R Gavin Floyd

R Amaury Telemaco

 

You mentioned Adams but forgot to put him in the projected bullpen, Floyd won't start, he'll get a bit more seasoning in AAA or start a few games to start the season... Also Aaron Fultz is an big option for lefty specialist...

Wheres Roberto Hernandez?

 

You forgot to mention the Dejean may make the pen despite his ligament tear in his calf. Also Orber Moreno is probably going to be back before the all-starbreak...

 

Wheres scott strickland, hes supposed to be the main middle man...

 

And Koo is more of a Long reliever-Lefty guy, not really like a harder throwing closer type like Sasaki, but the simularity is there both trying to see if they can compete in the majors...

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- On the Phillies, since he plays for them

- I mentioned Orber Moreno, and I would have mentioned DeJean if he didn't have 8 or so pitchers ahead of him, uttering him a moot point

- I don't know how a nonroster invitee is going to be the main middle guy, but if that's your take I'm sure I'll love reading about it in your NL East preview

- I don't see where I put that Koo was Sasaki at all, more that he would try to emulate Sasaki's performance, which has less ot do with what type of pitcher he is and more with the numbers he put up

 

You mentioned Adams but forgot to put him in the projected bullpen, Floyd won't start, he'll get a bit more seasoning in AAA or start a few games to start the season... Also Aaron Fultz is an big option for lefty specialist...

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- I didn't forget to put him in the projected bullpen, he doesn't deserve to start in the bullpen. There's a difference.

- Gavin Floyd will be in the majors Opening Day, and if he isn't the Phillies deserve to lose.

- Yeah, that 4.85 career ERA makes Fultz a really attractive option, and the even better 5.04 last season is even more impressive. He'll be there guaranteed though. It's also nice that he improves his numbers against lefties, all the way down to 4.81 against the type of batter he's supposed to be a specialist of. Bravo! He doesn't deserve to be in the pen.

 

Why don't you try to actually contribute something to the conversation, or at least find holes that actually exist? :thumbup

On the Phillies, since he plays for them

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eh, Hernandez is a Met.

http://www.sportfanatics.net/Baseball/Fant...all_Capsule.htm

 

2005 Team Capsule - Philadelphia Phillies

Roberto Hernandez P

 

That's what I went by, and he's not on the Mets active roster.

ok, but he is still a Met

 

box score

 

he pitched vs the Marlins just the other night

Unless he was sent down to the minors already, I don't see him.

 

And if he was sent down to the minors, he obviously won't be in the projected bullpen regardless now will he.

And This Nightly Zing Brought To You By Suncom Wireless.....We get it!

Unless he was sent down to the minors already, I don't see him.

 

And if he was sent down to the minors, he obviously won't be in the projected bullpen regardless now will he.

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he is still with the big club

Then why isn't he on MLB's active roster? One would think he'd be among the 40+ names there if he's going to be on the Opening Day roster.

Then why isn't he on MLB's active roster? One would think he'd be among the 40+ names there if he's going to be on the Opening Day roster.

721655[/snapback]

 

I dont know what to tell you... he wasnt sent down according to Mets Transactions on ESPN

 

and he pitched on Friday, so I assume he is still with the big club even if mlb.com doesnt have him on their "Active roster"

 

 

Hernandez also has a 2.25era so that should help his cause

 

Mike Matthews is also not on that active roster yet his era is less than 1 in 10 innings which is 5th most on the team

I guess there's nothing we can do except wait and see if he makes the club, or if they decide to actually add him to the roster before the spring is over.

Hernandez signed a MnL contract, whcih means he doesn't get a roster spot unless actually makes the team.

Wheres Roberto Hernandez?

 

You forgot to mention the Dejean may make the pen despite his ligament tear in his calf. Also Orber Moreno is probably going to be back before the all-starbreak...

 

Wheres scott strickland, hes supposed to be the main middle man...

 

And Koo is more of a Long reliever-Lefty guy, not really like a harder throwing closer type like Sasaki, but the simularity is there both trying to see if they can compete in the majors...

721380[/snapback]

- On the Phillies, since he plays for them

- I mentioned Orber Moreno, and I would have mentioned DeJean if he didn't have 8 or so pitchers ahead of him, uttering him a moot point

- I don't know how a nonroster invitee is going to be the main middle guy, but if that's your take I'm sure I'll love reading about it in your NL East preview

- I don't see where I put that Koo was Sasaki at all, more that he would try to emulate Sasaki's performance, which has less ot do with what type of pitcher he is and more with the numbers he put up

 

You mentioned Adams but forgot to put him in the projected bullpen, Floyd won't start, he'll get a bit more seasoning in AAA or start a few games to start the season... Also Aaron Fultz is an big option for lefty specialist...

721390[/snapback]

- I didn't forget to put him in the projected bullpen, he doesn't deserve to start in the bullpen. There's a difference.

- Gavin Floyd will be in the majors Opening Day, and if he isn't the Phillies deserve to lose.

- Yeah, that 4.85 career ERA makes Fultz a really attractive option, and the even better 5.04 last season is even more impressive. He'll be there guaranteed though. It's also nice that he improves his numbers against lefties, all the way down to 4.81 against the type of batter he's supposed to be a specialist of. Bravo! He doesn't deserve to be in the pen.

 

Why don't you try to actually contribute something to the conversation, or at least find holes that actually exist? :thumbup

721640[/snapback]

 

Dejean (provided he's healthy) will be the Mets 8th inning set up guy...

 

d.