In the last few days since Marlins President, David Samson announced the fire sale of its best and highest paid players as well as the team's intentions to search for another market to relocate to, the south Florida fans have taken a real beating in the media. Statements like "Florida fans are front runners who don't support their team." and "Winning sells in every market except South Florida." have been filling the columns of the newspapers and the radio airwaves.

 

But I want to do something original in this debate. I want to look at FACTS.

 

In 2002 the Marlins had a season attendance of 813,118 that works out to an average of 10,038 per game. By 2005 the team's season attendance had soared to 1,823,388 an average of 22,792 per game. In four short seasons the Marlins experienced an attendance boom of 124%.

 

But because the first number was so low, even with the rapid increase, the Marlins still had the 28th highest attendance out of 30 in Major league baseball.

 

But why was attendance so low in 2002? Let's take a look at the brief history of the Florida Marlins and see why they were playing catch up.

 

The Marlins were established in 1993. The next season was shortened by a strike in which the World Series wasn't even played. Attendance across all of Major League Baseball was down for several seasons after that.

 

In June of 1997, Marlins owner, H. Wayne Huizenga, announced he was selling the team, claiming that it was an unprofitable venture. Though a subsequent analysis by the New York Times proved that while the Marlins themselves may have lost money, they created a net positive revenue situation for Huizenga's entire portfolio that includes the stadium the Marlins play in.

 

By selling the team, Huizenga was able to eliminate the expense side of his Marlins ledger and keep the revenue indefinitely since the Marlins would continue to be a tenant in his building. That day in June 1997, a cloud of uncertainty came over the franchise that still persists.

 

After winning the World Series in 1997, the team was systematically dismantled and fans predictably stayed away in droves.

 

In 1999 John Henry (today the principal owner of the Boston Red Sox) purchased the Marlins from Huizenga announcing that if he couldn?t get public funds to build a new stadium for the team, that he?d fund it himself. Later that same year, Major League Baseball yanked the 2000 All-Star Game from South Florida.

 

John Henry?s time as owner of the Marlins was marked by dark statements about the future of the franchise if a new stadium was not built for the club. Of course he never followed through on his promise to privately finance it. On the field the Marlins were miserable and never posted a winning season during Henry?s ownership. The best players were routinely traded away for minor league prospects.

 

In 2001 MLB owners voted 28-2 to contract two ball clubs. The Florida Marlins were on the short list to be contracted.

 

Just prior to the 2002 season, the Marlins were sold to Jeffrey Loria and the franchise seemed to be in a shambles. The concession stands even ran out of hotdogs on opening day and the man who played Billy the Marlin, the team?s mascot, was fired in a cost cutting measure. Several players with big contracts were traded away during and after that season and it seemed that this was what baseball fans in South Florida were going to be subjected to until the Marlins met their ultimate fate.

 

Ironically, the collective bargaining process the ruined the 1994 season saved the Marlins from contraction when the process began again in 2002. The players gave in to several demands from the owners including a revenue sharing plan among clubs but held firm that there would be no contraction.

 

In 2003 almost every move that Loria?s team made in 2002 paid off. The Marlins were the hottest team in baseball for the last four months of the season. They captured the wildcard spot and went on to defeat the Giants, Cubs and Yankees en route to their 2nd World championship in the club?s short life.

 

It seemed impossible for the team to move or be contracted after this accomplishment. There seemed to be a lot of momentum being generated for the Marlins to finally have a building of there own, where enough revenues could be generated to make the Marlins competitive over the long term.

 

But as the news in recent days indicates, the stadium proposals that have surfaced to date are all dead. Jeffrey Loria, through club President David Samson, claims that he has invested significant amounts of his personal wealth to make the Marlins competitive but that he can no longer shoulder the losses and the from here on in, the team?s payroll will reflect it?s actual revenues and thus the team?s second fire sale in less than 10 years has begun.

 

The fans that were abused by previous ownership groups were coming back as evidenced by the numbers above. It?s just that they didn?t come back fast enough. The sad fact is that Loria?s plan to rebuild the confidence of the fans was working, he just ran out of money before it succeeded.

 

By the way, this year the Cleveland Indians almost did the same exact thing the Marlins did in 2003. They were the hottest team in the second half of the season and were alive in the playoff race until the last week of the season. The Indians play in beautiful Jacobs Field and drew a total of 309 more fans per game than the Marlins who were hot and cold all year long.

 

In this soap opera, south Florida?s baseball fans have been the victims not the culprits.

A well-written saga. But the bottom line is that the fans have never been there, save 1993. You can point fingers at the 1994 strike, the 1997 firesale (which greatly contributed to the Marlins reloading and winning it all in 2003), the constant threat of rain, the remote location of PPS, the heat, etc. etc. etc. The attendance last year was downright MISERABLE -- considering 1) the Marlins were actually expected to win for the first time; and 2) the Marlins had won two titles in the past eight seasons.

 

Sorry, dude, but this sentence says it all right here:

 

season attendance had soared to 1,823,388 an average of 22,792 per game

 

"Soaring" to 22,792 per game ain't gonna cut it, and it's the fault of Miami "so-called" sports fans who will fork over $100s to watch the excreable Dolphins and treat the Marlins like they were radioactive. I remember back in 1996 listening to some sportstalk show on opening day in April and all anyone wanted to talk about was the football draft (then months away) and who the Dolphins should pick. That made it clear to me, at least, that Miami is not, and will never be, a baseball town.

A well-written saga. But the bottom line is that the fans have never been there, save 1993. You can point fingers at the 1994 strike, the 1997 firesale (which greatly contributed to the Marlins reloading and winning it all in 2003), the constant threat of rain, the remote location of PPS, the heat, etc. etc. etc. The attendance last year was downright MISERABLE -- considering 1) the Marlins were actually expected to win for the first time; and 2) the Marlins had won two titles in the past eight seasons.

 

Sorry, dude, but this sentence says it all right here:

 

season attendance had soared to 1,823,388 an average of 22,792 per game

 

"Soaring" to 22,792 per game ain't gonna cut it, and it's the fault of Miami "so-called" sports fans who will fork over $100s to watch the excreable Dolphins and treat the Marlins like they were radioactive. I remember back in 1996 listening to some sportstalk show on opening day in April and all anyone wanted to talk about was the football draft (then months away) and who the Dolphins should pick. That made it clear to me, at least, that Miami is not, and will never be, a baseball town.

 

 

No, this sentence says it all:

 

In four short seasons the Marlins experienced an attendance boom of 124%.

 

Lets jump on all the negative and forget that attendance numbers are going up. It's also not fair to blame the fans for not going when the future of the franchise has been in limbo for 3 years now. Would you invest in a company that might not be around in the next few years?

 

South Florida comes out when a winning product is on the field, rink, or court. The Fish just need to add some stablity.

Yeah attendance has improved and has continued to improve since winning it all in '03, but a team that just won the World Series and cannot sell out practically every game is pathetic. I remember the crowds of the first few weeks of 2004 and they were huge, buzzing about baseball for the first real time in who knows how many years, however midway through the season, the number had dwindled down to the 22-23,000 range.

 

And lets not just blame baseball fans here, if the Heat hadn't traded for Shaq and had gone through the '04-'05 season with the same team, the attendance would have dropped by December again. Fans are going out to their games now because there is a real shot that they can win a championship. If the Marlins had played consistently throughout the first half winning baseball, I have no doubts that they would see attendance of more than my previously stated 22-23,000 fans a night.

 

Does this team need to build a tradition? Yeah. However you have a team that has won two professional titles in less than 10 years and the beloved Dolphins, who hasn't won a title since 1973, are still the most favored team in this town. We are not Cubs fans or Yankees fans (although I will question Yankee fans but thats for a different topic) or even Red Sox fans who support their team and always come out no matter what, but the fact remains that baseball fans down here stink and that is why so many baseball fans around the country knock on us.

 

I think a new stadium and security that this team will stay around with a possible competitive team every year can help change the mind of the public, but it if it doesn't, South Florida is likely to be branded as bad baseball fans forever.

Don't take much of what is said by club officials to heart. The fans are pawns in a greater battle. (And don't pay attention to the media or fans who focus on such trivial matters as attendance.)

I've never been able to grasp how people assume giant spikes in trends just because one small variable is changed.

 

Who is more foolish, the fool or he who listens (in this case, those that swear anything is going to change overnight)?

Then why do the fans not come to playoff games when the team is good. The Marlin fans are pathetic, and being 28th in attendance is nothing to brag about. Whatever happens with the stadium, the Marlins probably will never draw.

I think we shouldnt point fingers cuz thats not gonna help :plain

Then why do the fans not come to playoff games when the team is good. The Marlin fans are pathetic, and being 28th in attendance is nothing to brag about. Whatever happens with the stadium, the Marlins probably will never draw.

 

 

:blink:

Then why do the fans not come to playoff games when the team is good. The Marlin fans are pathetic, and being 28th in attendance is nothing to brag about. Whatever happens with the stadium, the Marlins probably will never draw.

I don't see anyone bragging. However throwing out 28th in attendance garbage just creates a fallacy among people who don't know squat about the issue, because it's a comparison to the other teams. If the MLB is setting records for attendance and ratings (which it is) then it's going to be kind of hard to climb up the rankings now isn't it?

The fans have as much to do with the Marlins situation is the awful lease that they are a party to, that is all I am saying. And I for one dont believe that a new stadium will change anything, I do admit that I might be wrong with that belief. As long as the taxpayers are not asked to cough up the money then I am fine with whatever they want to do with a stadium.

1993- 3,064,847 Inaugural year 64-98

 

1994- 1,937,467 Strike Shortened 51-64

 

1995- 1,700,466 Strike Shortened 67-76

 

1996- 1,746,767 first full season after strike 80-82

 

1997- 2,364,387 World Series Win, Announcement of team being for sale 92-70

 

1998- 1,750,395 Dismantling, team lost more games than inaugural team 54-108

 

1999- 1,369,421 John Henry buys team 64-98

 

2000- 1,173,389 79-82

 

2001- 1,261,226 79-82

 

2002- 813,111 Jeffrey Loria Buys team, negative publicity contraction rumors 79-83

 

2003- 1,303,215 World Series Win 91-71

 

2004- 1,723,105 In contention until last month 83-79

 

2005- 1,823,388 In contention until last month 83-79

1993- 3,064,847 Inaugural year 64-98

 

1994- 1,937,467 Strike Shortened 51-64

 

1995- 1,700,466 Strike Shortened 67-76

 

1996- 1,746,767 first full season after strike 80-82

 

1997- 2,364,387 World Series Win, Announcement of team being for sale 92-70

 

1998- 1,750,395 Dismantling, team lost more games than inaugural team 54-108

 

1999- 1,369,421 John Henry buys team 64-98

 

2000- 1,173,389 79-82

 

2001- 1,261,226 79-82

 

2002- 813,111 Jeffrey Loria Buys team, negative publicity 79-83

 

2003- 1,303,215 World Series Win 91-71

 

2004- 1,723,105 In contention until last month 83-79

 

2005- 1,823,388 In contention until last month 83-79

 

 

 

It is worth noting we averaged 33k a night 1994.

 

2002 also brought the rumors of contraction. We only had 26k Opening Day.

Nobody is saying that 28th in MLB is something to brag about but it needs to be put into context. Dan LeBatard and Boog Sciambi are making the argument that winning draws fans everywhere except Florida. But if you increase your attendance by 124% in 4 seasons I'd say that the team's winning ways were bringing back the fans that had been slapped in the face.

 

The reason a stadium makes a difference is that increased revenue may equal increased payroll. There's no guarantee of that by the way. Ask the fans in Milwaukee. But Loria has spent his own money in the past to win. So it stands to reason that if the ballclub is generating more revenue in a new ballpark that he'll spend that windfall on players and not to line pockets, though again I say there is no guarantee. But one thing is certain: any owner of the Marlins that refuses to spend his own money (money over and above that which is generated by the club) will be fielding one of the lowest payroll teams in MLB because the current revenue streams are so small.

I've never been able to grasp how people assume giant spikes in trends just because one small variable is changed.

 

Who is more foolish, the fool or he who listens (in this case, those that swear anything is going to change overnight)?

 

good point. and this is a great thread.

 

I would like to add something, It doesn't help that there is a virtual unlimited supply of tickets at the Dolphin Stadium. What is the effect? Most people don't buy tickets in advance and Marlins are way too dependent on walk up crowds.

 

On the other hand, if you have a 38K seat stadium. People would have to buy tickets in advance to secure their seats (ie. family of 4 looking to seat together).

 

If you buy tickets in advance you are more likely to go with bad weather, tired from work, etc.

Another factor not being mentioned is the Marlins increased ticket prices 25-50% this past season. Basic economic theory would tell you this would result in lower attendance. Well it didn't. Loria increased payroll to $67M and the fans responded by growing attendance 5%. Had the team actually played to it's ability it is highly likely attendance would have topped 2M.

My point is that I dont think that a stadium will do anything for attendance, it might as you say help with revenues, but I dont think that transalates into higher attendance (at least to a level that matters), even if they win more games. As much as people want this to be a baseball town, it just is not. The latin market is overplayed as in general, the latin market does not show up to games with the same volume as other demographics in south Florida.

canesfins:

 

pot, kettle, black. Just take a look at the Orange Bowl when the Canes play and tell me that it isn't pathetic that a football powerhouse cannot sell enough tickets besides rivalry games to warrant opening the upper bowl of the stadium! Hell, look at Doak Campbell, they esentially have the same schedule as the Canes do, yet routinely sell out!

I just showed you how winning has increased attendance. If winning is based on the team having enough money to field a competitive team, more revenues equals more chance of winning. And that's not even considering how much a climate controlled stadium in a more convenient location will raise attendance. To simply say that it's not a baseball town is a gross oversimplification and inane drivel.

My point is that I dont think that a stadium will do anything for attendance, it might as you say help with revenues, but I dont think that transalates into higher attendance (at least to a level that matters), even if they win more games. As much as people want this to be a baseball town, it just is not. The latin market is overplayed as in general, the latin market does not show up to games with the same volume as other demographics in south Florida.

 

 

A retractable roof stadium will do much better than you might imagine. TV ratings were through the roof this past year. I've had so many people tell me they watched the game from home because they were concerned about driving all the way down to Dolphin Stadium and then experiencing a rain delay. My guess is attendance would increase by anywhere from 25-40% if the stadium had a roof.

My point is that I dont think that a stadium will do anything for attendance, it might as you say help with revenues, but I dont think that transalates into higher attendance (at least to a level that matters), even if they win more games. As much as people want this to be a baseball town, it just is not. The latin market is overplayed as in general, the latin market does not show up to games with the same volume as other demographics in south Florida.

 

I think the 'baseball town argument' is a bunch of BS.

 

look at 93 and 94, and look at the TV and radio ratings.

 

I'm not saying we will sudenly have a Wrigley or Fenway type attendance with a new stadium.

 

Most people won't become emotionally involved with a team with so many problems. You put a stadium and secure the franchise down here, and you would see much better numbers.

My point is that I dont think that a stadium will do anything for attendance, it might as you say help with revenues, but I dont think that transalates into higher attendance (at least to a level that matters), even if they win more games. As much as people want this to be a baseball town, it just is not. The latin market is overplayed as in general, the latin market does not show up to games with the same volume as other demographics in south Florida.

 

 

Do you have access to some demographic study of Marlins ticket buyers that we don't?

My point is that I dont think that a stadium will do anything for attendance, it might as you say help with revenues, but I dont think that transalates into higher attendance (at least to a level that matters), even if they win more games. As much as people want this to be a baseball town, it just is not. The latin market is overplayed as in general, the latin market does not show up to games with the same volume as other demographics in south Florida.

 

 

No? Long term stability I would imagine would go along way for attendance..

FishFan, a stadium can't be the only thing. Good thing Loria and Beinfest care about baseball, because the Pirates have McClatchy and the "good-for" Nuttings owning the team, with Littlebrain, I mean Littlefield as GM. They stuck with McClendon, who proved to be an awful coach in every season he coached. Then Littlebrain hired his personal crony in Jim Tracy as his new manager. McClatchy and the Nuttings actually made a windfall this season, despite the crappy product. Mark Cuban, a Mt. Lebanon native, offered to buy the team (I imagine it must have been for a king's ransom), but McClatchy and the Nuttings said no. Methinks they want to reap the windfall of the 2006 ASG before cutting and running.

 

Oh, and did I mention that there's still some ill will toward the team regarding the way the stadium was funded? The voters rejected a bond issue on financing a new stadium, but the city council stuck it through the back door, essentially an FU to the taxpayers. If anything, that would have been a big reason for longtime mayor Tom Murphy not running again (well, that and other financial mismanagement that has caused the city to have negative growth population-wise and brought it to the brink of bankruptcy.

 

So, if anything, be thankful you're not a Pirate.

 

EDIT: Oh, I almost forgot about the owners selling off their players to the highest bidder as well (Brian Giles and Jason Kendall come to mind).

You wont find me trumpeting the tremendous fan support for the Canes, it is not there. Winning producing a 28 ranking in attendance is not really something to be proud of. Like mentiond, baseball has been breaking attendance records, so is the increase in attendance that far ahead of what baseball in general has received? There are many things to blame for Marlin attendance, I just dont think a new stadium solves most of the reasons that are there. No, I dont have a demographic chart of ticket holders, but if 50% of the season ticket holders come from Palm Beach COunty I would guarantee you that the vast majority of these are not latin.