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2006 Marlins = 2005 A's?


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Don't the Marlins look like the A's from last season in a lot of ways? The A's were without Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, much like the Marlins are now without Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett. Barry Zito, like Willis, is the leader of the rotation. Both are left-handed. Plus, both teams have power at third base. The A's had 88 wins, so why is every one not having faith in the Marlins for '06?

-- Pedro M., Pensacola, Fla.

 

You raise some interesting points. Like Oakland, Florida is a team working with limited resources. Your point is well taken that money alone doesn't buy championships, or winning seasons. Both clubs have been crafty in how they've assembled their rosters with modest payrolls.

 

What has upset Marlins fans is the scope of the "market correction." Few anticipated so many players would be moved, especially since Mike Lowell, Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo and Paul Lo Duca each had signed multi-year contracts with Florida. Based on the inexperience the team will have in so many areas, an 88-win season is probably not realistic. The team isn't done wheeling and dealing yet, so we'll see how the roster shapes up before Opening Day.

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We're not as well FO'd as the A's.

 

Beane >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Beinfest

 

 

I wholeheartedly disagree. Beinfest is more creative considering what resources he has to work with. Beane has made some horrible decisions in the past. See: Bobby Kielty. That really worked out.

 

Not to take credit away from the guy because he's done well with limited resources too, but if he were in charge of Florida I doubt he would've been able to acquire as many top line prospects that Beinfest did. Beane sometimes tends to settle for anything rather than bargaining for the best deal. In my opinion, of course.

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We're not as well FO'd as the A's.

 

Beane >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Beinfest

 

 

I wholeheartedly disagree. Beinfest is more creative considering what resources he has to work with. Beane has made some horrible decisions in the past. See: Bobby Kielty. That really worked out.

 

Not to take credit away from the guy because he's done well with limited resources too, but if he were in charge of Florida I doubt he would've been able to acquire as many top line prospects that Beinfest did. Beane sometimes tends to settle for anything rather than bargaining for the best deal. In my opinion, of course.

 

I would certainly consider both of those two amongst the top general managers in the game. You can't really take anything away from Beane, he did fantastic in trading Hudson/Mulder both in terms of the talent he got back and knowing to pull the trades in the first place. I suspect Admin B will be equally lauded for how well he did on the various trades this year. And one could argue Admin had a much more difficult job, as it was well known that he HAD to make trades where as my opinion regarding Beane's trades last year was that it was much more of his call than ownerships (or atleast that was the preception).

 

Beinefest has done a fantastic job this offseason. And as I've said before, if there was not the threat of the team moving I would call this offseason a model of ingenuity. The collection of minor league talent we have is ridiculous. Whether we make a trade for a CF now or in the next year, we have the potential to have mulitiple studs in the field with one of the best collection of top young pitchers any team has had collectively for a long, long time. We could be rolling 4-5 deep in very talented SP with a solid young bullpen.

 

I just saw a ranking of the top 50 pitchers as of last August. Olsen and Vargas were #'s 6 & 16. Anibal was #7. Petit #13 and Gaby Hernandez #30. 5 of the top 30! I'm not good at posting links otherwise i would do it.

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We're not as well FO'd as the A's.

 

Beane >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Beinfest

 

 

I wholeheartedly disagree. Beinfest is more creative considering what resources he has to work with. Beane has made some horrible decisions in the past. See: Bobby Kielty. That really worked out.

 

Not to take credit away from the guy because he's done well with limited resources too, but if he were in charge of Florida I doubt he would've been able to acquire as many top line prospects that Beinfest did. Beane sometimes tends to settle for anything rather than bargaining for the best deal. In my opinion, of course.

 

We had to dismantle this team partly due to how bad Beinfest constructed it salary wise. He didn't buy out Beckett, Cabrera, and Willis' arbitration, he has made moves such as Lee over Lowell which backfired, gave/traded for stupid players such as LoDuca and Encarnacion, who are nice complimentary guys, but not worth their price tag or what we gave up for them in, and tried to skimp on the bullpen which is by far the biggest problem. We have never had a good bullpen under Beinfest, including 2003. I realize he won a World Series, but he only had 2 RP mostly and got really lucky Beckett and Willis were capable of coming out of the pen and dominating. This team had problems coming into 05 and you could easily see the year playing out how it did. This would not have happened under Beane.

 

Beane wouldn't have had to trade everybody and still keep a competitive payroll under $25 million. Our farm system would be flat out better because he has shown he is a better evaluator of young talent then Admin. We wouldn't have to clean house just to get additional position players into our system. I can see Delgado, LoDuca, and Lowell being moved, but not Beckett and Castillo. Concerning 05 moves, Leiter and his -1.5 dEra from 2004 would have never been signed, AJ would have surely been dealt for McCarthy midseason, he'd acquire bullpen help like Witasick in June, versus help July 31st, and he would have demanded JP be moved down in the order and Lowell outright benched for Hermida or Conine giving the 05 team a much better shot of competing, and potentially generating a buzz among the bandwagon south florida fans. We'd also have seen a lot more of Willingham. This part of it isn't rocket science, and I do not know if it is Beinfest being obtuse and believing in his team, or Loria telling him not to yell at McKeon, or Jack refusing to construct a proper lineup despite Admin's advice, but whatever the reason, I don't feel he did his job as a GM of putting the best possible Marlins team on the field in 05. If Jack wants a .330 OBP guy batting leadoff, flat out have the balls and FIRE his ass so this team can win. They were really close to being great despite all the problems the team had. A lot of those problems would have been solved with a smarter front office/management strategy.

 

The 06 Marlins will be around 20 wins off the 05 A's. The Marlins could have been the 05 A's if the rotation was Willis (Zito), Beckett (Harden), Vargas (Haren), McCarthy (Blanton), and Moehler/Petit, had Beane's intrinsic knack for finding RP out of nowhere, and actually had projectable position players to sub into SS and CF, unlike Andino and Reed, by drafting WAY better. This is really not that far fetched. Beane is a great GM, and I think you are absolutely kidding yourself if you think Beinfest is in the same league as that. And Kielty isn't a bad player. He'd put up numbers better then Encarnacion if he got the playing time.

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I would certainly consider both of those two amongst the top general managers in the game. You can't really take anything away from Beane, he did fantastic in trading Hudson/Mulder both in terms of the talent he got back and knowing to pull the trades in the first place. I suspect Admin B will be equally lauded for how well he did on the various trades this year. And one could argue Admin had a much more difficult job, as it was well known that he HAD to make trades where as my opinion regarding Beane's trades last year was that it was much more of his call than ownerships (or atleast that was the preception).

 

Beinefest has done a fantastic job this offseason. And as I've said before, if there was not the threat of the team moving I would call this offseason a model of ingenuity. The collection of minor league talent we have is ridiculous. Whether we make a trade for a CF now or in the next year, we have the potential to have mulitiple studs in the field with one of the best collection of top young pitchers any team has had collectively for a long, long time. We could be rolling 4-5 deep in very talented SP with a solid young bullpen.

 

 

 

I don't think you can say he has done a fantastic job rebuilding until he resolves finding longterm answers for 2B and CF, where one of them can hit leadoff. He could have done this with the trades, but he opted to get so much pitching, teams like Tampa won't settle for out 2nd tier pitchers for a no power OF. They want Olsen, or Anibal, or Petit. Admin's still got 3 months, so I reserve judgement on total praise till he finds 1 more top of the order young position player to compliment Cabrera, Hermida, Hanley, Jacobs, and Willingham. It's the # 1 need of the franchise.

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The Marlins' lineup will be very good if it can find a .370+ OBP leadoff man. This lineup is pretty good, I think:

 

1. .370 OBP CF

2. Willingham (.370+ OBP with some power to boot)

3. Hermida (.380+ OBP with a high average and some power)

4. Cabrera (Super star. Nuff said.)

5. Jacobs (Potential 25HR, .280-.290 average, high slugging rookie first baseman)

6. Han Ram (unless the Marlins sign a capable veteran SS, they're going with him)

7. Olivo

8. Pokey Reese

 

 

The 1-5 guys are outstanding and better than last year's 1-5. A leadoff man with a .370 OBP > JP of 2005. Willingham with .370 OBP and some power > Louie (mostly because of Willy's power). Hermida < Miggy. Miggy > Carlos (but not by much). Jacobs > Encarnacion.

 

The real problem could be 6-8. '05 Lo Duca > '06 Han Ram in all likelihood (but perhaps we can be surprised). '06 Olivo = '05 Lowell (but perhaps we can be surprised). '05 Sea Bass > '06 Reese.

 

So the '06 Marlins have 5 guys that are better than their '05 counterparts and 3 guys that are worse. My prediction is that we score about 760-775 runs (compared to 716 runs in 2005), which should place us in the top half in the NL or perhaps top third.

 

Our problem will be our pitching staff. If the staff can surprise us a bit and place in the middle of the pack in team ERA in the NL and our team defense improves, I can see us sniffing .500 or even having the same record as 04-05.

 

Thoughts?

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Guest Moneyball

It's not even close I'd rather have Beane anyday of the week.

 

MarlinsLou your post is on the money. The only thing I'd like to mention is Beinfest and Loria were at odds over firing McKeon. I believe if Loria hadn't seen so loyal to Jack a move would have been made midseason. Beinfest also waited to long to pull off deals in 2004 and 2005. It seemed like crushing loss after crushing loss kept piling up on the team early in the season and the FO did nothing.

 

Prin, I think you're numbers are abit inflated. I really doubt these guys will have an OBP 70-80 points higher than their batting average in their first big league seasons.

 

At this point it's wishful thinking to believe the Marlins will have a lead-off hitter with a .380 OBP.

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The Marlins' lineup will be very good if it can find a .370+ OBP leadoff man. This lineup is pretty good, I think:

 

1. .370 OBP CF

2. Willingham (.370+ OBP with some power to boot)

3. Hermida (.380+ OBP with a high average and some power)

4. Cabrera (Super star. Nuff said.)

5. Jacobs (Potential 25HR, .280-.290 average, high slugging rookie first baseman)

6. Han Ram (unless the Marlins sign a capable veteran SS, they're going with him)

7. Olivo

8. Pokey Reese

 

 

The 1-5 guys are outstanding and better than last year's 1-5. A leadoff man with a .370 OBP > JP of 2005. Willingham with .370 OBP and some power > Louie (mostly because of Willy's power). Hermida < Miggy. Miggy > Carlos (but not by much). Jacobs > Encarnacion.

 

The real problem could be 6-8. '05 Lo Duca > '06 Han Ram in all likelihood (but perhaps we can be surprised). '06 Olivo = '05 Lowell (but perhaps we can be surprised). '05 Sea Bass > '06 Reese.

 

So the '06 Marlins have 5 guys that are better than their '05 counterparts and 3 guys that are worse. My prediction is that we score about 760-775 runs (compared to 716 runs in 2005), which should place us in the top half in the NL or perhaps top third.

 

Our problem will be our pitching staff. If the staff can surprise us a bit and place in the middle of the pack in team ERA in the NL and our team defense improves, I can see us sniffing .500 or even having the same record as 04-05.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

I agree for the future but not 06. .370 OBP guys don't just drop out of nowhere, and Willingham, Hermida, and Jacobs aren't going to produce that high as rookies. Especially the OBP you have for Josh and Jeremy. I think longterm Hermida will be a .400+ OBP guy along with Cabrera; Willingham might be a .370ish guy, and Hanley and Jacobs could be good # 2 and # 6 hitters with .350ish OBP. Hanley obviously offering some more speed and Jacobs power. I don't think Jacobs will ever hit 30+ HR which is the only reason why longterm I can't see him as a pure 5 behind our two studs. I see some future LF manning that lineup spot. I'm not convinced Willingham isn't our catcher for years. They'd love the offense out of that spot if he can become adequete behind the plate. I think they give him a lot of games to see if he can do it and hope he is more then Matt LeCroy.

 

I don't think Hanley even breaks camp on the team so I can't say I agree with your LoDuca > Hanley thing, but I think Helms is going to play a lot in LF, and Willingham catcher, thus removing Olivo from the offensive equation a lot of the time. My math says Helms > LoDuca. Uggla and Pokey, my projected middle infield opening day starters, are going to be nightmares at the plate though in the 7th and 8th spots. I think longterm, Hanley will fix the SS problem, but they desperately need a young 2B. Maybe Josh Wilson or Uggla surprises us all though.

 

As for 06, which was your thread, I agree though that the offense is going to surprise people, maybe not 750 runs surprise, but matching 05 is realistic. I don't think they need a .370 OBP to do that either, although that would be amazing and then they might reach 750+ after all. I think a .335 OBP Gathright with his speed would do the trick to match Pierre instantly, but then the question comes in how much do you love Scott Olsen and do you believe Gathright will get over the .350+ OBP hump, keep the fantastic stolen base quantity and steal percentage, and start hitting doubles. But that's another argument. I agree 100% they need a leadoff hitter right now. Even if they don't get a young guy they keep for years and it is a cheap Jeff Davanon type that just walks his way to a minimum .340 OBP, it's still someone on base for Hermida and Cabrera. Eric Reed and Aguila are not the answers.

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We're not as well FO'd as the A's.

 

Beane >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Beinfest

 

 

I wholeheartedly disagree. Beinfest is more creative considering what resources he has to work with. Beane has made some horrible decisions in the past. See: Bobby Kielty. That really worked out.

 

Not to take credit away from the guy because he's done well with limited resources too, but if he were in charge of Florida I doubt he would've been able to acquire as many top line prospects that Beinfest did. Beane sometimes tends to settle for anything rather than bargaining for the best deal. In my opinion, of course.

1. What's so good about being creative? Is it the key aspect a GM should be measured by? What does it even mean?

 

2. What makes you think Beinfest hasn't been given the player development, scouting and draft resources Beane has? The Marlins haven't shied away from big bonuses or players with options to signing during Beinfest' tenure. Nor have they skimped on minor league instructors or training grounds. The Athletics had a limited PD and scouting budget, which was cut even further by Beane in his focus on college players with a somewhat credible history to explore statistically.

 

 

 

I'm not a fan of how Beinfest has handled himself and others in the organization. His attitude or pride or whatever it is too often gets in the way and causes contention with people he needs to be on good terms with. An assistant GM might be able to get away with it, but not a general manager. Excluding those concerns, I'd consider Beinfest in the top half of GMs. Beane as well.

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Let me just say that I am stunned that Admin B is not "getting the love". Baseball is by far the hardest of the major sports in which to predict talent...the vary nature of making big league trades/drafts is going to leave one open for a big deal of criticisim. I should take more time to research his trades before i post but still:

 

1. Knew when to get rid of Dempster (or was that Dombrowski?)

 

2. Got rid of Aflonseca and Clement before they got too expensive. I think we got somebody in that trade also.

 

3. 04' & 05' certainly look like great drafts.

 

4. Did very well in trading for Connine with approx. 20 hours left on the deadline in 03' when Lowell broke his hand.

 

5. Pulled of the Urbina trade- and say what you want about Uggie but we don't win the series with only Looper closing games for us.

 

Way too much criticism for a very tough job. I still maintain he did a fantastic job in pulling off these trades. How he got anything of value for LoDuca and JP is insane. And I thought we did very well in getting good value in Delgado and Josh.

 

I still think Beanne is a great GM but Admin B is a top 5-7 GM. Who else out there has done a better job than him? Impossible to answer but I am glad he is in our camp.

 

Whammy?

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See, when comparing the teams, one forgets that the 2005 A's still had Rich Harden who is the most talented pitcher on either team (or the 2004 version of the A's and the 2005 Marlins).

 

As for Beane -v- Beinfest...who gives a crap if you're creative...give me results. Beane keeps his team competitive with less, and he generally gets a better season record with a lot less, and anyone who has half a brain in their heads has to understand that 162 games are a much better evaluation of a team's true talent than 19 games in October.

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I still think Beanne is a great GM but Admin B is a top 5-7 GM. Who else out there has done a better job than him? Impossible to answer but I am glad he is in our camp.

 

 

 

I don't think it's impossible. But for me, and this is in no real order;

 

Beane, Schuerholz, the Boston Red Sox oligarchy, Stoneman, Shapiro, Ryan, and Jocketty without a doubt.

 

Beinfest would then come somewhere in the second tier of guys like Sabean, Riccardi, Towers, Melvin, and Purpura. I'm thinking 10-12 range for Admin. Which is still above average, and he does have a ring, but he needs to do a way better job of developing position player talent in the minors (granted, Cabrera and Hermida will be massive ballplayers, but there is literally no depth behind them sans Willingham that would be considered a MLB bench player), and I don't like his inseason moves at all. I always hated the trade with the Dodgers, we've never had a good bullpen here, last year not getting a RP until July 31st and throwing Smith, Crowell, Messenger, and other stiffs to see if they magically could provide a lift. Or, not outright demanding to bench Lowell and play Conine in LF, or Hermida. Those other GM's wouldn't be letting their manager make stupid lineup decisions like that last year and would have done something. Beinfest didn't. I also question his logic in not getting more position players in this latest rebuilding, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt until spring training to see if he goes out and gets a young 2B or CF that can hit leadoff.

 

I don't want to entirely rip on the guy. I do like him. I thought the Castillo contract was way below market. He got Willis when he was only a B level prospect. He called up Cabrera at the right time and the one time an inseason random bullpen move, Chad Fox, paid off, it paid off HUGE. I like the little Helms, Olivo, etc moves this offseason. Jones and Moehler were great cost-effective moves, etc. I don't see him as a liability like say, Jim Bowden, but I think anyone who thinks Admin is a premier GM isnt watching what the rest of baseball is doing. We'd never have to rebuild this much if he was signing players to smarter (buying out arbitration) contracts, and developing more talent in house.

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