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Thoughts on the Marlins First Half of 2006


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Pre-season I predicted the team would win 1/3 of their first 54 games(16wins), play .500 the second 54 games(27 wins) and drop back to 40% (21wins)in the final 54 games. 64-98

 

My prediction would be 32 wins at this time...they have won 38. :cheers

 

 

 

I knew we had a good, solid team, but inexperienced...so I didn't think we'd be close to 500 at the break as well as in second place.

 

 

just a sidenote...we are in 4th place.

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surprising success, who thought our record would be where it is. we've also had a lot of surprising players. i remember how i thought pokey reese was going to be a big loss for this team..i didn't think uggla would be anything special--basing this on what i'd read on him. i never would have imagined he'd be an all-star. if anyone on the team was going to be in run for the best ERA in the NL i would of thought it'd be willis, or anibal, or someone else..i wouldn't of thought josh johnson would be there.

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We lost so many close games in april and may that i feel it is unlikely that the same will occur in the second half. I feel our second half will better than our first, and possibily significantly better. Im at work and dont want to look for the stats but We lost like 20 run games in the first half, and not to mention the leads we took into the ninth. If we wouldve won at least half of those games, we'd be at about .500 right now. So I expect play close to .500 in the second half.

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I expected a 55-65 win team for the year, leaning more towards the 55. I expected a lousy April. I expected the Marlins to play their best baseball of the season in May-July, before collapsing in August-September as the inning count got high on the young pitchers and the days got long for the team as a whole. I did not think that they would be able to put together a month like June. That's what good starting pitching can do. Now, I don't think they'll collapse as bad as first expected in August-September, and I'm leaning more towards the 65 win total. I think we have enough depth at SP to enable Girardi to have a rotation of Willis, JJ, and then a mix of Olsen, Moehller, Sanchez, Vargas, and a dash of Mitre, thus keeping the SP relatively fresh.

I'm pleaasntly surprised with the play so far of Uggla's offense, Olivo's offense, and most importantly JJ's pitching.I'm dissapointed on Willy offensively and defensively, and Hermedia as well. But I still say it will take 2 years to form any long-term conclusions from any of the rookies.

I actually think that the team could be in the playoff chase if the FO added a few key pieces. But IMO that's not going to happen. I think it's more likely that we are sellers and we lose some key bullpen arms. I wouldn't be surprised to see JOBo, Tank, Herges traded. They can be replaced by the rotating starters who'll pitch out of the pen instead of geting their usual between start sessions. It won't make the rest of the year pretty, but if Beinfest can get some nice talent back that will help us in 2007-8-9 then it's worth it.

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I say disapointing failure, but only because I truly believed this team could be a .500 team, and they have proven to me that they indeed have the talent to do so. So, I'm very upset at our current record. I am still lukewarm to Girardi, but I no longer loathe him and his management of the bullpen (which has been pretty great the past two months, even when we lose). I think we found a gem in Uggla, but I am a little underwhelmed with the make-up of our young starters. Not because they are not talented, but because I truly thought by this time we'd have a few break-away players...and, at this time, I couldn't truly say which of Olsen/Johnson/Nolasco/Petit/Pinto/Sanchez should be kept and whom should be dealt for young CF, etc.

 

Ok...maybe disapointing failure is way too strong...and really what I'm going for is somewhat disapointed...but that wasn't an option. How about, optimistically frustrating?

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