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I said he was a utility player if you read my post again I don't think he is their 2nd basemen or will be their 2nd baseman. He would be as much of a 2nd baseman as Amezaga will be for the Marlins this year. Lou actually was right as much as I was, BJ Upton will not be the D-Rays starting 2nd baseman, and that position will not be platooned

 

Lou's quote was:

"Actually it does, because Rays fans are crazy if they don't like him. There is a reason the TB front office is trying to turn him into a 2B"

They are making him a utilty player not a 2nd baseman

If Upton handles 2B fine defensively, in a Felipe Lopez kind of way, he'll be playing there everyday by June, and probably for the rest of his career. They aren't grooming him as a utility player even if that's what his role is. Amezaga is a utility player, BJ Upton is not. It's a compliment to the Rays positional depth (specifically outfield) that they can have the amazing luxury of Upton on the bench and try him out at a number of places to see where he fits in, barring a trade.

Why are so many people not able to see that JJ was not a fluke last year. He can simply flat out pitch. You guys forget pitching is about getting batters out, JJ does that better than most...so little faith, my people.

Johnson was tied for 46th in WHIP last year (minimum 100 IP), which is not better than most. It's better then some. His DIPS era last year was 3.93, and at 1.27% his ERA was good for 9th best overachiever in the league. That's adding almost a full run already. This is not a can't miss top of the rotation starter. Sure, he could do it - hope his slugging against numbers aren't a fluke and the walks come down cause he has good H/9, K/9 and other stats at the MLB level in his limited exposure thus far - but people on this board severely over value Johnson based on his 2006 ERA. I like him, view him as a future 3/4 on a good team, and would be reluctant to trade him so early into his career cause he is pretty valuable, but he isn't untouchable if we can get the right player back. I don't think BJ is it, but if it's Rocco or Rios, that's an instant must trade as they are both 4 or 5 years away from free agency, and will have undervalued contracts through arbitration (Rios) or a poorly negotiated contract (Rocco).

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This discussion is still going on...

 

Upton isn't coming. The guy is slated to be a utility player on a perrennial last-place team that has yet to see a winning season. One with a reputation for horrible defense and who has yet to prove himself as a major league hitter either, slugging under 300 in his limited time in Tampa last season. That can't justify the asking price Tampa is looking for. Maybe he does have all the potential in the world, but he's not going to set the world on fire as the utility IF for the DRays, and if they insist on overpricing him their team will continue to stagnate while the giants in their division walk all over them.

 

I also read someone refer to how "scary" Tampa's lineup will be in a few years. So after a little :lol let me assure you, Tampa's lineup will never be scary. At least not in the near future, with the way they are being managed. It is ok to let talent and "potential" go if it makes your team better.

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I said he was a utility player if you read my post again I don't think he is their 2nd basemen or will be their 2nd baseman. He would be as much of a 2nd baseman as Amezaga will be for the Marlins this year. Lou actually was right as much as I was, BJ Upton will not be the D-Rays starting 2nd baseman, and that position will not be platooned

 

Lou's quote was:

"Actually it does, because Rays fans are crazy if they don't like him. There is a reason the TB front office is trying to turn him into a 2B"

They are making him a utilty player not a 2nd baseman

If Upton handles 2B fine defensively, in a Felipe Lopez kind of way, he'll be playing there everyday by June, and probably for the rest of his career. They aren't grooming him as a utility player even if that's what his role is. Amezaga is a utility player, BJ Upton is not. It's a compliment to the Rays positional depth (specifically outfield) that they can have the amazing luxury of Upton on the bench and try him out at a number of places to see where he fits in, barring a trade.

Why are so many people not able to see that JJ was not a fluke last year. He can simply flat out pitch. You guys forget pitching is about getting batters out, JJ does that better than most...so little faith, my people.

Johnson was tied for 46th in WHIP last year (minimum 100 IP), which is not better than most. It's better then some. His DIPS era last year was 3.93, and at 1.27% his ERA was good for 9th best overachiever in the league. That's adding almost a full run already. This is not a can't miss top of the rotation starter. Sure, he could do it - hope his slugging against numbers aren't a fluke and the walks come down cause he has good H/9, K/9 and other stats at the MLB level in his limited exposure thus far - but people on this board severely over value Johnson based on his 2006 ERA. I like him, view him as a future 3/4 on a good team, and would be reluctant to trade him so early into his career cause he is pretty valuable, but he isn't untouchable if we can get the right player back. I don't think BJ is it, but if it's Rocco or Rios, that's an instant must trade as they are both 4 or 5 years away from free agency, and will have undervalued contracts through arbitration (Rios) or a poorly negotiated contract (Rocco).

I look forward to revisiting this matter in October...For now we can agree to disagree. JJ pitched extremely well and you still look for numbers to minimize his accomplishments. I know baseball is about stats and numbers but the game is played between the foulines and that is where JJ excells. I hope at the end of the season you will finally give him some due credit. I am a fan of the game. the game transcends OPS, WHIP, DIP, or any isolated stats. The game is the sound of the bat, the cheer of the crowd, the joy of a great defensive play. The game is Schilling's bleeding ankle, Anibal's no-hitter, Cody coming back the next day after getting hit in the mouth and having a great game. The game is Jim Edmonds breath-taking play in CF...Lets look at the numbers but lets watch the game as well

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I said he was a utility player if you read my post again I don't think he is their 2nd basemen or will be their 2nd baseman. He would be as much of a 2nd baseman as Amezaga will be for the Marlins this year. Lou actually was right as much as I was, BJ Upton will not be the D-Rays starting 2nd baseman, and that position will not be platooned

 

Lou's quote was:

"Actually it does, because Rays fans are crazy if they don't like him. There is a reason the TB front office is trying to turn him into a 2B"

They are making him a utilty player not a 2nd baseman

If Upton handles 2B fine defensively, in a Felipe Lopez kind of way, he'll be playing there everyday by June, and probably for the rest of his career. They aren't grooming him as a utility player even if that's what his role is. Amezaga is a utility player, BJ Upton is not. It's a compliment to the Rays positional depth (specifically outfield) that they can have the amazing luxury of Upton on the bench and try him out at a number of places to see where he fits in, barring a trade.

Why are so many people not able to see that JJ was not a fluke last year. He can simply flat out pitch. You guys forget pitching is about getting batters out, JJ does that better than most...so little faith, my people.

Johnson was tied for 46th in WHIP last year (minimum 100 IP), which is not better than most. It's better then some. His DIPS era last year was 3.93, and at 1.27% his ERA was good for 9th best overachiever in the league. That's adding almost a full run already. This is not a can't miss top of the rotation starter. Sure, he could do it - hope his slugging against numbers aren't a fluke and the walks come down cause he has good H/9, K/9 and other stats at the MLB level in his limited exposure thus far - but people on this board severely over value Johnson based on his 2006 ERA. I like him, view him as a future 3/4 on a good team, and would be reluctant to trade him so early into his career cause he is pretty valuable, but he isn't untouchable if we can get the right player back. I don't think BJ is it, but if it's Rocco or Rios, that's an instant must trade as they are both 4 or 5 years away from free agency, and will have undervalued contracts through arbitration (Rios) or a poorly negotiated contract (Rocco).

I look forward to revisiting this matter in October...For now we can agree to disagree. JJ pitched extremely well and you still look for numbers to minimize his accomplishments. I know baseball is about stats and numbers but the game is played between the foulines and that is where JJ excells. I hope at the end of the season you will finally give him some due credit. I am a fan of the game. the game transcends OPS, WHIP, DIP, or any isolated stats. The game is the sound of the bat, the cheer of the crowd, the joy of a great defensive play. The game is Schilling's bleeding ankle, Anibal's no-hitter, Cody coming back the next day after getting hit in the mouth and having a great game. The game is Jim Edmonds breath-taking play in CF...Lets look at the numbers but lets watch the game as well

 

The game is about winning, plain and simple. Great players win games, and players who put up great numbers are great players.

 

I don't care if a guy looks like he's going to light the league on fire, if he can't take a walk or can't strike guys out consistently. I don't care if a guy looks like he knows what he's doing out there, because at the end of the day, everything balances out. A guy who allows a slugging against that is about 100 points below normal will eventually even out, especially since a pitcher has little to no control over what happnes once the ball is put in play. All he can control is how many guys he walks, and how many guys he strikes out, and how many home runs he gives up over the course of the season. Everything else will basically balance out to the norm, so if a guy looks to have an unsustainable hit rate, he will bounce back to earth, and I feel like Johnson will be bouncing back this season. He will still be a good #3 pitcher, but I'd take BJ Upton over almost any #3 pitcher in the league.

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heh... Tampa's offense is gonna be a juggernaut very soon

 

Even if it is, it won't amount to more than 1 in 5 wins because Kazmir can only pitch so often.

They finally have some legit arms in their farm. Once they start dealing away their hitters(and they will), their arms will improve as well.

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He will still be a good #3 pitcher, but I'd take BJ Upton over almost any #3 pitcher in the league.

Again, a utility IF with poor defense and a major league OPS of 659. Even Hermida, who was another highly touted prospect and was very dissapointing last year still blows him out of the water. Don't get me wrong, I think Hermida will develop well. But I have yet to hear anything beyond minor league stats and age to justify how great Upton is, and nothing at all to be honest that explains how he will suddenly morph into a good CF. Maybe he will be great, but none of you have a crystal ball, and JJ has shown a whole lot more in the equally limited opportunities he has had at the major league level. If you would give up JJ for Upton it only further illustrates why not everyone can or should be a GM.

 

They finally have some legit arms in their farm. Once they start dealing away their hitters(and they will), their arms will improve as well.

And some will get injured, and some will stall, as is nature. Besides Tampa can't simply keep every good player while waiting for a rotation to materialize out of the minors. No team can do that. Players will move on or deteriorate, while Tampa waits to become a contender, rather than try to improve their team now.

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Id be hesitant to give up JJ for Upton at this point in their careers for the reasons you state....one has put up while one has not (with extremely extenuating circumstances). Your double standards are interesting though. A horrible defensive CF on the the wrong side of 30 has a great chance to hit 325+ after flailing away in the minors for a year, but one of the most talented players in the game (would still be top 5 spect but ML ABs disqualify) you label as a utility freakin infielder (laughable) after the crap he's had to put up with....not to mention his age.

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He will still be a good #3 pitcher, but I'd take BJ Upton over almost any #3 pitcher in the league.

Again, a utility IF with poor defense and a major league OPS of 659.

 

OMG SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

 

In his first 200 ML at bats, Arod had about a .630 OPS. He obviously never recovered from this and is currently a utility infielder for one of the worst organizations in baseball.

 

Let's forget that at the age of 21, Upton had an OPS of .882 in AAA. Because the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have completely mismanaged the kid up to this point, he will never be anything but a utility infielder.

 

Honestly, if I could have a utility infielder who will OPS .850 and steal close to 50 bags at a 90% clip, I'd trade a #3 starter for him in a heart beat. You want talent on your team, and you find a position for them later. We could most likely stick him in center, and even if he plays the worst defense for a CF in the league, he'd only be a little worse than anyone currently on the roster, and the fact that he is going to be an offensive machine will neutralize whatever small impact his defense might have.

 

I say adding BJ Upton and just sticking Mitre or Petit in the Rotation to replace Johnson makes this team 5 wins better right now. The impact of defense has been so overrated, and the point of the matter is the best defender will save about 50-60 runs over the absolute worst defender over the course of a season, and given the fact that Upton is one of the most athletic players in the league, I doubt he'd be one of the worst defenders. And even if he does, the awesome offensive numbers he's going to put up are going to more than neutralize it.

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He will still be a good #3 pitcher, but I'd take BJ Upton over almost any #3 pitcher in the league.

Again, a utility IF with poor defense and a major league OPS of 659.

 

OMG SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

 

In his first 200 ML at bats, Arod had about a .630 OPS. He obviously never recovered from this and is currently a utility infielder for one of the worst organizations in baseball.

 

Let's forget that at the age of 21, Upton had an OPS of .882 in AAA. Because the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have completely mismanaged the kid up to this point, he will never be anything but a utility infielder.

 

Honestly, if I could have a utility infielder who will OPS .850 and steal close to 50 bags at a 90% clip, I'd trade a #3 starter for him in a heart beat. You want talent on your team, and you find a position for them later. We could most likely stick him in center, and even if he plays the worst defense for a CF in the league, he'd only be a little worse than anyone currently on the roster, and the fact that he is going to be an offensive machine will neutralize whatever small impact his defense might have.

 

I say adding BJ Upton and just sticking Mitre or Petit in the Rotation to replace Johnson makes this team 5 wins better right now. The impact of defense has been so overrated, and the point of the matter is the best defender will save about 50-60 runs over the absolute worst defender over the course of a season, and given the fact that Upton is one of the most athletic players in the league, I doubt he'd be one of the worst defenders. And even if he does, the awesome offensive numbers he's going to put up are going to more than neutralize it.

 

I suppose if you put on your blinkers and completely ignore his 2006 campaign, it is easy to write off Johnson as being nothing more than a mid-rotation starter at best. Right now, he is our #2 and he pitched better than the average MLB #1 in 2006. For a number of reasons, many tied to the stress put on both Olsen and Sanchez in 2006, I am fairly certain JJ will once again outperform all of last year's rookie starters in 2007. Johnson is coming into spring training in better shape, having lost some 20 pounds during the offseason, and I look forward to seeing what the leaner, meaner JJ can do. To think that Johnson is easily replaceable in our rotation, especially by the likes of Mitre or Petit, is a joke. We would probably put the Marlins in a position to lose 10-13 (even more for Petit) that JJ would have won or put the Marlins in a position to win. You severely overestimate the value Upton would bring to the lineup (and taking an .850 OPS as being a given is a stretch, even though I think he may have it in him). And if Tampa Bay keeps using Upton the way they are there is a chance they'll stifle his development.

 

If we can get Upton, I would love it. But not at the cost of any of the top four starters in our rotation.

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He will still be a good #3 pitcher, but I'd take BJ Upton over almost any #3 pitcher in the league.

Again, a utility IF with poor defense and a major league OPS of 659.

 

OMG SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

 

In his first 200 ML at bats, Arod had about a .630 OPS. He obviously never recovered from this and is currently a utility infielder for one of the worst organizations in baseball.

 

Let's forget that at the age of 21, Upton had an OPS of .882 in AAA. Because the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have completely mismanaged the kid up to this point, he will never be anything but a utility infielder.

 

Honestly, if I could have a utility infielder who will OPS .850 and steal close to 50 bags at a 90% clip, I'd trade a #3 starter for him in a heart beat. You want talent on your team, and you find a position for them later. We could most likely stick him in center, and even if he plays the worst defense for a CF in the league, he'd only be a little worse than anyone currently on the roster, and the fact that he is going to be an offensive machine will neutralize whatever small impact his defense might have.

 

I say adding BJ Upton and just sticking Mitre or Petit in the Rotation to replace Johnson makes this team 5 wins better right now. The impact of defense has been so overrated, and the point of the matter is the best defender will save about 50-60 runs over the absolute worst defender over the course of a season, and given the fact that Upton is one of the most athletic players in the league, I doubt he'd be one of the worst defenders. And even if he does, the awesome offensive numbers he's going to put up are going to more than neutralize it.

 

I suppose if you put on your blinkers and completely ignore his 2006 campaign, it is easy to write off Johnson as being nothing more than a mid-rotation starter at best. Right now, he is our #2 and he pitched better than the average MLB #1 in 2006. For a number of reasons, many tied to the stress put on both Olsen and Sanchez in 2006, I am fairly certain JJ will once again outperform all of last year's rookie starters in 2007. Johnson is coming into spring training in better shape, having lost some 20 pounds during the offseason, and I look forward to seeing what the leaner, meaner JJ can do. To think that Johnson is easily replaceable in our rotation, especially by the likes of Mitre or Petit, is a joke. We would probably lose or put in a position to lose 10-13 more games than we could've won if Mitre were put in the rotation in JJ's spot 13-16 if Petit were put there in 2007. You severely overestimate the value Upton would bring to the lineup (and taking an .850 OPS as being a given is a stretch, even though I think he may have it in him). And if Tampa Bay keeps using Upton the way they are there is a chance they'll stifle his development.

 

If we can get Upton, I would love it. But not at the cost of any of the top four starters in our rotation.

 

Allow me to be a little skeptical when a guy posts an unrealistic (compared to his peripheral stats) ERA, especially when it is almost a third of a run better than any ERA he put up in the minors, while not improving his WHIP or K/9.

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Allow me to be a little skeptical when a guy posts an unrealistic (compared to his peripheral stats) ERA, especially when it is almost a third of a run better than any ERA he put up in the minors, while not improving his WHIP or K/9.

 

If you want to go by another measure of ERA besides the standard one, how about ERA+? He posted an 137 ERA+ as a 22-year-old rookie in 2006. And what stats are you looking at anyways? Both his WHIP and K/9 were improvements over his minor league numbers in 2005, with his WHIP the lowest it has been since A ball in 2003.

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With all this stat talk I sometimes wonder if anyone actually watched the guy pitch last season?

 

While certainly not at the exclusion of stats, there are things like poise, how well he spots pitches, how well he and his catcher work together hitter by hitter, how his pitches move, etc., that can't be quantified by numbers but are part and parcel of the player. The eye only sees part of the story but numbers only tell part of the story as well.

 

Personally I'm in PBC's camp that Johnson will be a top of the rotation (1-2-3) guy for as long as he remains healthy.

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Id be hesitant to give up JJ for Upton at this point in their careers for the reasons you state....one has put up while one has not (with extremely extenuating circumstances). Your double standards are interesting though. A horrible defensive CF on the the wrong side of 30 has a great chance to hit 325+ after flailing away in the minors for a year, but one of the most talented players in the game (would still be top 5 spect but ML ABs disqualify) you label as a utility freakin infielder (laughable) after the crap he's had to put up with....not to mention his age.

well at least this is a bit more substantive. In regards to Sanchez - I didn't suggest he would hit over 325. Ever. I said that IF he could return to hitting in the 300-320 range, I would consider batting him #2. And if you combine his 04 and 05 #s, he was hitting 323. Yes the guy had a bad season. A horrible season. But to say that a guy who was hittin 324 in the major leagues the season before last cannot at least bat, say 15 points lower, for an avg around 308 is silly. Maybe he can't and he has nothing. But it remains to be seen, and him hitting over 300 is not unrealistic.

And Upton is a utility IF. Sorry to say. He is slated to start nowhere for the DRays. His glove has kept him out of any starting IF positions and his bat has yet to make him their top DH candidate. And lets not even talk about the DRay's OF. Laugh all you want, but you tell me what BJ Upton is on the DRays, because it sure isn't a starter.

 

In his first 200 ML at bats, Arod had about a .630 OPS. He obviously never recovered from this and is currently a utility infielder for one of the worst organizations in baseball.

 

Let's forget that at the age of 21, Upton had an OPS of .882 in AAA. Because the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have completely mismanaged the kid up to this point, he will never be anything but a utility infielder.

 

Honestly, if I could have a utility infielder who will OPS .850 and steal close to 50 bags at a 90% clip, I'd trade a #3 starter for him in a heart beat. You want talent on your team, and you find a position for them later. We could most likely stick him in center, and even if he plays the worst defense for a CF in the league, he'd only be a little worse than anyone currently on the roster, and the fact that he is going to be an offensive machine will neutralize whatever small impact his defense might have.

 

I say adding BJ Upton and just sticking Mitre or Petit in the Rotation to replace Johnson makes this team 5 wins better right now. The impact of defense has been so overrated, and the point of the matter is the best defender will save about 50-60 runs over the absolute worst defender over the course of a season, and given the fact that Upton is one of the most athletic players in the league, I doubt he'd be one of the worst defenders. And even if he does, the awesome offensive numbers he's going to put up are going to more than neutralize it.

You're not going to convince me by bringing in ARod, so just don't even bother next time.

I don't care about his age. I don't care if he's 15. He had an OPS of 880 in AAA - wonderful. He had an OPS under 600 in the ML last season. He may be great in 2 or 3 years, but he will not solve any problems any time soon unless we are counting on him to bring a championship to Albuquerque. He may have the potential, but until it's demonstrated in MLB, it's not worth that asking price.

 

And to suggest that JJ is interchangeable with Mitre or Petit is just insane. I wonder if you watched a single Marlins game last year. Even when JJ had a bad start he maxed out at giving up 4 runs, and was a pretty good guarantee for 7 IP (Min 6). I think once (MAYBE twice) he gave up 5. All season. You think Petit or Mitre would be anywhere close enough to that? I'd like to emphasize the right now part of your statement. Right now, BJ Upton has a 659 MLB OPS and is coming off a sub-600 OPS MLB season. Maybe in the future he would be good for it, but right now BJ Upton is far from realizing the great expectations everyone on this board has for him. Trading JJ for him today would more likely be giving away 10 wins with those replacements.

 

One last thing - BJ Upton is one of the worst defenders. Let me put it in perspective for you: Reggie Abercrombie, highly regarded CF had a FPCT of 972 last season with a mere 5 errors. What's that you say? Since Upton was an IF, he had more opportunities for mistakes. OK. Compare him to Hanley, who definately didn't win ROTY on his defensive prowess. But still managed a FPCT of 962 with 26 errors. Lets compare this to Upton: A 921 FPCT in AAA and 902 in MLB, with a combined 66 Errors for 2006.

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With all this stat talk I sometimes wonder if anyone actually watched the guy pitch last season?

 

While certainly not at the exclusion of stats, there are things like poise, how well he spots pitches, how well he and his catcher work together hitter by hitter, how his pitches move, etc., that can't be quantified by numbers but are part and parcel of the player. The eye only sees part of the story but numbers only tell part of the story as well.

 

Personally I'm in PBC's camp that Johnson will be a top of the rotation (1-2-3) guy for as long as he remains healthy.

 

Most definitely. Johnson showed the poise of a veteran as a rookie last season. The one game that best illustrates that was probably the mid-season day game against the Mets at Shea. Johnson didn't have his best stuff that day and had to get out of a number of situations that could have easily turned ugly and many pitchers, let alone a rookie, would have folded. The worst that day was a bases loaded jam with no outs, IIRC, in which he got David Wright to flyout to end the inning. There were a number of games like that over the course of the season where he refused to get rattled by bad calls or not his best stuff and pulled through with either a win or left the team in a position to win. I don't think anyone can question his mound presence and poise.

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Most definitely. Johnson showed the poise of a veteran as a rookie last season. The one game that best illustrates that was probably the mid-season day game against the Mets at Shea. Johnson didn't have his best stuff that day and had to get out of a number of situations that could have easily turned ugly and many pitchers, let alone a rookie, would have folded. The worst that day was a bases loaded jam with no outs, IIRC, in which he got David Wright to flyout to end the inning. There were a number of games like that over the course of the season where he refused to get rattled by bad calls or not his best stuff and pulled through with either a win or left the team in a position to win. I don't think anyone can question his mound presence and poise.

 

Agreed. I think one way to describe it might be to say JJ could/can adjust better than most pitchers. If the umpire isn't calling a certain pitch in the zone, he adjusts. If he doesn't have his best stuff, he adjusts. And almost always he did so very well.

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JJ was simply by far our best starter last year, yes at the end of the season he had a couple of nondescript performances but came back strongly from them and was dominant...in fact he had been dominanting from the first moment he became a starter. JJ is such of a intelligent pitcher . He didn't need his best stuff to win, He reminds me of the pitchers of the past who didn't have to throw 100 mph to get batters out

 

BJ Upton on the other hand if he had been wearing a Marlins uniform, instead of A D-Ray jersey most of you guys that are saying trade JJ or Sanchez for him would be asking to run him out of town on the first rail! Look at all the crap that has been said about Jake, injury and all. That OPS and horrible defense would have had you guys requesting a lynching at Bayside for his arse. Guys don't be negative, most of it is about negativity and poison

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I still think Johnson will be no more than our 3rd best pitcher for the next decade if we keep him, wheras Upton could very well be our 2nd best hitter until we lose Cabrera.

 

You might be right on both counts and you might be wrong on both counts but we'll know better at season's end. It's doubtful with all the hype Upton's price could go up much more than it is now, a frontline starting pitcher, and we certainly aren't in a hurry to move any of guys in our rotation, so we'll wait and postulate what could have been, what should have been and are the Rays ever going to have a winning season?

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  • 3 weeks later...

? Despite talk of the Marlins and Devil Rays reviving their long-rumored deal involving Rocco Baldelli, Florida actually appears to be more focused on the younger (and cheaper) B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes as center field possibilities.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2007/c...&id=2784998

 

 

:pray

 

please please please please please please please please

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