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Dontrelle Willis will "definitely be traded"


Hammerhead
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Some people are really quick to just jump off the bandwagon. Dontrelle will bounce back.

 

Dontrelle's biggest value lies in the fact that he will give you a start every five days consistently and give you 100% effort every day. You know he's going to be in the rotation. And, given how injury plagued this team has been this year, I think we can appreciate the value in that. Can you imagine if we could say the same thing for Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson, and Sergio Mitre? How much more valuable do those guys have if they're always healthy? And how much better would that make our team?

 

Which of the following players contributes more to a team:

 

Player A - starts 33-34 games every year, wins between 12-16 games, an average ERA somewhere in the mid 3's, and 200+innings. Never misses a start.

 

Player B - starts 20-25 games a year, wins between 7-10 games, an average ERA in the low 3's or high 2's, and 140-160 innings. A minor league call up or a long reliever replaces him 8-14 starts per year (let's say this call up is an obermueller for 3-4 games, Vanden Hurk for 3-4 games, and some other random guy for the rest of the games).

 

 

I'll take Player A every time. That's what Dontrelle is.

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Some people are really quick to just jump off the bandwagon. Dontrelle will bounce back.

 

Dontrelle's biggest value lies in the fact that he will give you a start every five days consistently and give you 100% effort every day. You know he's going to be in the rotation. And, given how injury plagued this team has been this year, I think we can appreciate the value in that. Can you imagine if we could say the same thing for Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson, and Sergio Mitre? How much more valuable do those guys have if they're always healthy? And how much better would that make our team?

 

Which of the following players contributes more to a team:

 

Player A - starts 33-34 games every year, wins between 12-16 games, an average ERA somewhere in the mid 3's, and 200+innings. Never misses a start.

 

Player B - starts 20-25 games a year, wins between 7-10 games, an average ERA in the low 3's or high 2's, and 140-160 innings. A minor league call up or a long reliever replaces him 8-14 starts per year (let's say this call up is an obermueller for 3-4 games, Vanden Hurk for 3-4 games, and some other random guy for the rest of the games).

 

 

I'll take Player A every time. That's what Dontrelle is.

 

 

 

 

 

Will you please stop making so much sense.

 

You may short circuit some of the great baseball minds we have here @ MB.com

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Some people are really quick to just jump off the bandwagon. Dontrelle will bounce back.

 

Dontrelle's biggest value lies in the fact that he will give you a start every five days consistently and give you 100% effort every day. You know he's going to be in the rotation. And, given how injury plagued this team has been this year, I think we can appreciate the value in that. Can you imagine if we could say the same thing for Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson, and Sergio Mitre? How much more valuable do those guys have if they're always healthy? And how much better would that make our team?

 

Which of the following players contributes more to a team:

 

Player A - starts 33-34 games every year, wins between 12-16 games, an average ERA somewhere in the mid 3's, and 200+innings. Never misses a start.

 

Player B - starts 20-25 games a year, wins between 7-10 games, an average ERA in the low 3's or high 2's, and 140-160 innings. A minor league call up or a long reliever replaces him 8-14 starts per year (let's say this call up is an obermueller for 3-4 games, Vanden Hurk for 3-4 games, and some other random guy for the rest of the games).

 

 

I'll take Player A every time. That's what Dontrelle is.

 

Well that's a loaded comparison (and, for the record, you can see my post above and see that I'm not adamate about trading Dontrelle).

 

How about a more fair comparison of Player A's 32 starts, 14 are wins, 10 are losses.

 

Player B makes 28 starts, wins 11, loses 10, makes $4.5 million to $6.5 million less than player A and has an ERA within half a point of player A.

 

Still opposed?

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He has not done anything in the past to indicate to me that his ERA would go up signifigantly. Its obvioulsy a possibility.

 

This isnt his 2nd year in the bigs. He has shown year in and year out that he is durable and always game ready. Something that can't be said for a plethora of big league pitchers.

 

How easlily we forget how dominant he can be. It never ceases to amaze how baseball fans are quik to ship a guy out because he is having struggles (and Im not even talking about Brett Myers type struggles).

 

 

Its almost like you really believe we have these durable, minute ERA, inning eaters lined up just ready to jump into Dontrelle's spot.

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Hopefully better than the "Nick Markakis, Jorge Julio, and Hayden Penn" and "John Danks and Hank Blaylock" deals they were entertaining for Big Tex.

yea, it would suck to have Markakis :rolleyes:

 

It would be great to have Markakis, but him as a centerpiece with Penn and Julio for Big Tex was....bleh.

That trade was for AJ Burnett, not Beckett. However, that trade only looks good for the Marlins in hindsight because they did not make the playoffs that season.

 

 

Baltimore never offered us Markakis for Burnett, FWIW. They offered that package plus Admin Bigbie.

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He has not done anything in the past to indicate to me that his ERA would go up signifigantly. Its obvioulsy a possibility.

 

This isnt his 2nd year in the bigs. He has shown year in and year out that he is durable and always game ready. Something that can't be said for a plethora of big league pitchers.

 

How easlily we forget how dominant he can be. It never ceases to amaze how baseball fans are quik to ship a guy out because he is having struggles (and Im not even talking about Brett Myers type struggles).

 

 

Its almost like you really believe we have these durable, minute ERA, inning eaters lined up just ready to jump into Dontrelle's spot.

 

Umm...

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Why not trade him to a team in the NL if they are willling to overpay? Dontrelle hasn't been dominating to any extent since 2005.

 

While it is apparent that he still has value to other MLB teams, trading him before this year's deadline puts the Marlins in a greater position to win in 2008 than keeping him would.

You don't trade him because trading him weakens the '07 and '08 Marlins and this team's window is '07 and '08.

 

I don't understand why so many people insist in trading starting pitching away when starting pitching is our weakness.

His presence in the clubhouse would be missed, not his performance on the field. For that reason I think he should be traded if the right package should be offered. That could potentially make the team stronger for a run in 2008.

 

I don't see how you can really say starting pitching is the weakness when the Marlins spent the entire offseason after 2005 acquiring it. Just because there are injuries and some inconsistencies that need to be worked out doesn't mean the stuff isn't there. Olsen, Sanchez, and Johnson to a slightly lesser extent all have decent stuff. Dontrelle on the other hand appears to be more relient on his unconventional delivery than anything and hitters are beginning to figure him out.

 

Defense at every single position on the field is a weakness. Catcher is a weakness. Centerfield is a weakness. Not starting pitching.

I should have said starting pitching is the biggest weakness. C and CF are weaknesses but overall we have one of the top hitting teams in the league and although the defense is terrible that will continue to be the case as long as Uggla, Hanley, Cabrera, Hammer, Jacobs and Hermida are playing.

 

Regarding the rotation, Mitre and Kim are the only ones that have pitched well. The others have stunk or are injured. My concern with Mitre and Kim is that their checkered past makes it questionable that they'll maintain their current level. My guess is that Mitre and Kim will decline, DTrain will improve and Wes and Olsen will continue pitching like crap. JJ, Nolasco and Anibal are injured. I don't know how anyonwe thinks this is a strong rotation (based on performance, not hype) and removing DTrain who is the only one with a strong track record will only make things that much worse.

 

Again, just because they have had injuries this season does not mean they will perform to their potential at any point during this season or next. There is no doubt that their stuff is still there but is being held back by inconsistencies and those very injuries. On top of this, there are a number of arms being cultivated in the minors who are not yet ML ready. To say starting pitching is this organization's weakness is a very shortsighted assessment. Especially since only a handful of players are carrying the offensive weight of the club.

 

On what grounds do you have to say "Dontrelle will improve" and "Olsen will continue to pitch like crap?" That is leaving me perplexed and your comment that Dontrelle's MLB tenure has a clean performance record and is not overhyped. Sure, Olsen, Johnson, and Sanchez have not had 22 win, 2.63 ERA seasons yey (albeit in 2005), but they have all been showing some signs of greatness in their limited stints at the MLB level.

I expect DTrain's ERA to improve towards his career average.

 

I expect Olsen to continue to pitch poorly because I'm not impressed by pitchers who have poor command and who are unable to compensate for the poor command by either overpowering or fooling hitters.

 

Most of the fab five are nowhere to be found in BA's top 50 or 100 prospects which leads me to believe that they are overhyped (shocking!) and even if the hype is true I don't think any of them are expected to reach this level in '08 and this team's window ends in '08.

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I would say doesnt have Olsen has any worse command than any other pitcher this year. And the fact that he is a strikeout pitcher lends me to believe he will occasionally be more erratic erratic.

 

His biggest problem this year is giving up that one big inning, and your line of thinking that he will not improve, yet get worse, is not only unjustified, it is also laughable. As is your opinion that A)he cant fool hitters and B)cant blow it by them...strange considering the guy that had almost 9 k/9 as a 22 year old rookie.

 

And yea, I was wrong about Big Tex to Baltimore. And Markakis. My apologies.

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To me, it just boils down to the Marlins not having any real reason to trade Dontrelle this year or next unless they get absolutely bowled over.

 

There's no rational argument that can be made to me that says Dontrelle Willis will not be on the Marlins in 2008 for any reason other than a baseball decision. It isn't economically driven, and as such, we'll either get an awesome deal or we'll keep him.

 

That is exactly what I heard Boog say the other day. If it happens it will be purely a baseball decision.

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Some people are really quick to just jump off the bandwagon. Dontrelle will bounce back.

 

Dontrelle's biggest value lies in the fact that he will give you a start every five days consistently and give you 100% effort every day. You know he's going to be in the rotation. And, given how injury plagued this team has been this year, I think we can appreciate the value in that. Can you imagine if we could say the same thing for Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson, and Sergio Mitre? How much more valuable do those guys have if they're always healthy? And how much better would that make our team?

 

Which of the following players contributes more to a team:

 

Player A - starts 33-34 games every year, wins between 12-16 games, an average ERA somewhere in the mid 3's, and 200+innings. Never misses a start.

 

Player B - starts 20-25 games a year, wins between 7-10 games, an average ERA in the low 3's or high 2's, and 140-160 innings. A minor league call up or a long reliever replaces him 8-14 starts per year (let's say this call up is an obermueller for 3-4 games, Vanden Hurk for 3-4 games, and some other random guy for the rest of the games).

 

 

I'll take Player A every time. That's what Dontrelle is.

 

Well that's a loaded comparison (and, for the record, you can see my post above and see that I'm not adamate about trading Dontrelle).

 

How about a more fair comparison of Player A's 32 starts, 14 are wins, 10 are losses.

 

Player B makes 28 starts, wins 11, loses 10, makes $4.5 million to $6.5 million less than player A and has an ERA within half a point of player A.

 

Still opposed?

 

Right, of course.

 

Penguino, his lifetime ERA is certainly a 2nd starter type ERA. I bet you he ends up with a sub 4 ERA once again. You often don't make sense, so that's why I often refrain from responding to your comments.

 

TSwift, I agree with you 100%. That's how I see things as well.

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He has not done anything in the past to indicate to me that his ERA would go up signifigantly. Its obvioulsy a possibility.

 

This isnt his 2nd year in the bigs. He has shown year in and year out that he is durable and always game ready. Something that can't be said for a plethora of big league pitchers.

 

How easlily we forget how dominant he can be. It never ceases to amaze how baseball fans are quik to ship a guy out because he is having struggles (and Im not even talking about Brett Myers type struggles).

 

 

Its almost like you really believe we have these durable, minute ERA, inning eaters lined up just ready to jump into Dontrelle's spot.

 

Umm...

 

 

 

I wasnt referrring to Willis in that respect (althought it did seem that way).

 

My point is if we trade Willis for a positional player, we are really hurting in the starting pitcher department. Its offense that has kept us out of the cellar (and yes I am aware that we are playing for 2008).

 

He has not done anything in the past to indicate to me that his ERA would go up signifigantly. Its obvioulsy a possibility.

 

This isnt his 2nd year in the bigs. He has shown year in and year out that he is durable and always game ready. Something that can't be said for a plethora of big league pitchers.

 

How easlily we forget how dominant he can be. It never ceases to amaze how baseball fans are quik to ship a guy out because he is having struggles (and Im not even talking about Brett Myers type struggles).

 

 

Its almost like you really believe we have these durable, minute ERA, inning eaters lined up just ready to jump into Dontrelle's spot.

Who says he can't get one in return?

 

I've always been skeptical of Willis since 2003, when it was first apparent that his unconventional delivery and run support were strong contributing factors to his overall success. And again, his durability means nothing to me if he is putting up abysmal numbers. At that point, he would much better serve that organization by being shipped to a club willing to overpay.

 

 

 

Were you a skeptic a year and a half later when he got robbed of the Cy Young award?

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That still gives me the red ass. Especially since I live in Cardinal country and have to constantly hear the "Dontrelle Willis isnt in Chris Carpenters league" drivel.

You have great fans out there. Best in baseball. And Carpenter is a very, very good pitcher. But would I trade Dontrelle for Carpenter? No chance. Let the Cards keep their highly talented drone. I'll take the guy that enfuses the whole team with energy, even though the stats say Carpenter is better, now and in 2005. What do you say? If you were a Cards fan, would you rather have Carpenter or Dontrelle?

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Some people are really quick to just jump off the bandwagon. Dontrelle will bounce back.

 

Dontrelle's biggest value lies in the fact that he will give you a start every five days consistently and give you 100% effort every day. You know he's going to be in the rotation. And, given how injury plagued this team has been this year, I think we can appreciate the value in that. Can you imagine if we could say the same thing for Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson, and Sergio Mitre? How much more valuable do those guys have if they're always healthy? And how much better would that make our team?

 

Which of the following players contributes more to a team:

 

Player A - starts 33-34 games every year, wins between 12-16 games, an average ERA somewhere in the mid 3's, and 200+innings. Never misses a start.

 

Player B - starts 20-25 games a year, wins between 7-10 games, an average ERA in the low 3's or high 2's, and 140-160 innings. A minor league call up or a long reliever replaces him 8-14 starts per year (let's say this call up is an obermueller for 3-4 games, Vanden Hurk for 3-4 games, and some other random guy for the rest of the games).

 

 

I'll take Player A every time. That's what Dontrelle is.

 

Well that's a loaded comparison (and, for the record, you can see my post above and see that I'm not adamate about trading Dontrelle).

 

How about a more fair comparison of Player A's 32 starts, 14 are wins, 10 are losses.

 

Player B makes 28 starts, wins 11, loses 10, makes $4.5 million to $6.5 million less than player A and has an ERA within half a point of player A.

 

Still opposed?

 

Right, of course.

 

Penguino, his lifetime ERA is certainly a 2nd starter type ERA. I bet you he ends up with a sub 4 ERA once again. You often don't make sense, so that's why I often refrain from responding to your comments.

 

TSwift, I agree with you 100%. That's how I see things as well.

 

Yeah, and your ridiculous loaded scenario is flowing with sense. Get over yourself. :rolleyes:

 

My point is that there are only a handful of durable, above-average 25 year old starting pitchers in the league. Yes, I understand that you think he sucks. But the truth of the matter is that he doesn't. He's above average - a 2 or poor man's 1 - and he's very durable, which makes him very valuable.

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Although his stats haven't been quite as impressive yet this season, I think Dontrelle will still carry the value he has in the past, and I think that will be due to his durability. Look around the major leagues and make a list of the pitchers who haven't missed a start in 4.5 seasons. After you have that group, cross off the names with career ERA's over 3.60. After that, cross off the names of those players older than 25. Then look at the remaining names on the list, and see just how "special" Dontrelle is.

 

Does anyone have any idea of other pitchers who meet those criteria, or even come close? Please post if so. I will try to do some looking of my own.

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Again, your argument will only make the least bit sense if he puts up "above average" numbers by the end of the season. So far he has not been.

 

I'd be willing to bet that he does not surpass the 2006 median ERA for NL SP (4.25 was approximately the median for min 140 IP SP).

 

 

 

 

If a player who puts up average numbers is earning a lot of money and is coveted by teams willing to overpay, why not move him?

 

So, if a pitcher (or regular hitter, for that matter) doesn't produce above average numbers one season then you move him despite his track record of overall success? His past performance tells us that most likely over the next 5-6 years Willis will put up above average numbers. You're evaluating his worth based on one season. Last year he had above average ERA at 3.87 (or 3.93). And, don't forget that he's only 25 years old.

 

Your arguments are based on one season. He's got many good years left.

 

 

 

Although his stats haven't been quite as impressive yet this season, I think Dontrelle will still carry the value he has in the past, and I think that will be due to his durability. Look around the major leagues and make a list of the pitchers who haven't missed a start in 4.5 seasons. After you have that group, cross off the names with career ERA's over 3.60. After that, cross off the names of those players older than 25. Then look at the remaining names on the list, and see just how "special" Dontrelle is.

 

Does anyone have any idea of other pitchers who meet those criteria, or even come close? Please post if so. I will try to do some looking of my own.

 

Exactly my point.

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...found one who's comparable....a fellow by the name of Josh Beckett has a strikingly similar stat line....65 wins, 45 losses, career ERA 3.78 while Willis has 65 wins, 43 losses, and a career ERA of 3.55.

 

So, each have had about the same amount of success statistically, Beckett being more of a strikeout pitcher. Willis's advantages: no finger blisters, two years younger.

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...found one who's comparable....a fellow by the name of Josh Beckett has a strikingly similar stat line....65 wins, 45 losses, career ERA 3.78 while Willis has 65 wins, 43 losses, and a career ERA of 3.55.

 

So, each have had about the same amount of success statistically, Beckett being more of a strikeout pitcher. Willis's advantages: no finger blisters, two years younger.

 

...But Josh Beckett can throw 100 mph (skeet skeet)

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Yes, but them aging better is a projection. I'm trying to concentrate on what they have already achieved, something that is solid. If I wanted to throw out projections and guesses I could say just as easily that Willis might turn into a Maddux (1 200K season) or Glavine (averages 130 K/season).

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