Dontrelle Willis will "definitely be traded"

[Shamrock]

you guys are arguing with someone who doesnt think Randy Wolf put up average starter numbers in his career. use your time elsewhere.

 

does anyone else remember willis starting very slow last season as well?...he ended up with above average numbers.

[bobbob1313]

Yes, but them aging better is a projection. I'm trying to concentrate on what they have already achieved, something that is solid. If I wanted to throw out projections and guesses I could say just as easily that Willis might turn into a Maddux (1 200K season) or Glavine (averages 130 K/season).

 

Yes, but it's a projection that proves right more often than not in baseball history. Guys with strong K rates are more likely to have long careers in the majors. Maddux and Glavine are two exceptions, mostly due to their pinpoint control and strong groundball tendencies.

[The_Godfather]

I'd be willing to bet that he does not surpass the 2006 median ERA for NL SP (4.25 was approximately the median for min 140 IP SP).

 

 

Why did you call Dontrelle's 2006 season with an ERA of 3.87 on a bad defensive team average? Shouldn't that be above average?

[sgleason02]

I'm not saying that Dontrelle shouldn't necessarily be traded, but I think his numbers help solidify the fact that he is still in a very elite class, despite him having an average season, followed by what has been a "below-average" start to '07. I was just trying to emphasize that I don't think his stock has fallen as far as some people think it has.

 

In my opinion, pitcher's define themselves as they stay in the league longer. I think we were spoiled in Dontrelle's freshman campaign, and fooled into thinking that we had the makings of a streak-ending, shut-down, strikeout pitcher. After all, that's the kind of pitcher that we Marlins fans have come to expect from this organization. When it turns out, however, that Dontrelle is turning out to be more of the quiet, successful, innings-eater, who has the same success as the power pitchers.

[The_Godfather]

If it was just a mistake, no big deal, but you make it very misleading with this statement about Dontrelle.

 

We have a player who stormed into the bigs in 2003, struggled in 2004, bounced back in 2005, was average in 2006, and so far below average in 2007.

 

You make it sound like what he has done so far is have a fluke season and a half in the bigs and been average to bad since.

 

What we REALLY have (and the way your statement should read) is a player who stormed into the bigs with a fantastic 2003 that was a huge help to sparking us from an average team to Champions. 2004 he was slightly above average. He didn't struggle ...struggle is what Scott Olsen/Anibal Sanchez are doing right now.

 

2005 he was fantastic and Cy Young worthy. 2006 he was an above average national league pitcher. This year he has been slightly below average but starting to play better.

 

 

Add all this plus together plus his intangibles(hitting,gold glove defense,energy,clubhouse leader,fans love him) and you have an elite player.

 

 

BTW: I'm not really disagreeing with anything else you are saying, Penguino, we should trade him if the right package(sure thing in center or catcher PLUS PLUS) comes along, but lets not downplay what he has accomplished so far for this organization.

[Beastie]

I still dont understand why people think we can not compete this season.

 

We have played absolutley horrible and we are in this. When we get healthy and the pitching shows up we will be in this. We shouldnt be thinking 2 years down the road but what would help us now.

 

Has Willis been an ACE this season? No Chance. But we are a better team this season with Willis in our rotation rather than trading him for prospects that are not going to help us out this season.

 

Oh and trading Willis is going to bring a great fan reaction. They are all going to be jumping for joy that we traded him for prospects that most people have never heard of.

[TheDon]

you guys are arguing with someone who doesnt think Randy Wolf put up average starter numbers in his career. use your time elsewhere.

 

does anyone else remember willis starting very slow last season as well?...he ended up with above average numbers.

 

 

 

Your absolutely right. My time is better off spent elsewhere.

[Backin2008]

Player A: 65-43 record in 140 games, 3.55 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. 665 K's in 899.2 innings.

 

Player B: 52-48 record in 142 games, 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. 761 K's in 937.2 innings.

 

 

Who's the better pitcher? I'm going with B and that is Brandon Webb since he's come to the major leagues. Player A is Dontrelle Willis.

[TSwift25]

Player A: 65-43 record in 140 games, 3.55 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. 665 K's in 899.2 innings.

 

Player B: 52-48 record in 142 games, 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. 761 K's in 937.2 innings.

 

 

Who's the better pitcher? I'm going with B and that is Brandon Webb since he's come to the major leagues. Player A is Dontrelle Willis.

 

And in that comparison, age is overlooked.

 

If it's who you'd rather have this year and next, it's Webb. If it's over the next 7, it's Dontrelle.

[Fishfan79]

Yes, but them aging better is a projection. I'm trying to concentrate on what they have already achieved, something that is solid. If I wanted to throw out projections and guesses I could say just as easily that Willis might turn into a Maddux (1 200K season) or Glavine (averages 130 K/season).

 

Ironic you are mentioning willis and Glavine but the number 1 projection for a career for Dontelle Willis is actually Steve Avery from those old braves teams.

 

# Steve Avery (982)

 

He is also the most similar by age as well # Steve Avery (982) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/willido03.shtml

 

 

There is all of Willis stats, numbers, accolades, everything compiled and compared together.

 

One of the best baseball websites around, simply amazing the work they do.

 

Similar through 24:

 

1. Steve Avery (982)

2. Bob Moose (966)

3. Ross Grimsley (966)

4. Wally Bunker (965)

5. Ramon Martinez (960)

6. Mark Buehrle (958)

7. Admin Christenson (958)

8. Dave McNally (957)

9. Britt Burns (957)

10. Lefty Gomez (956) *

 

 

Most Similar by Age

 

21. John Henry Johnson (978) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

22. George Van Haltren (984) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

23. Ramon Martinez (973) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

24. Steve Avery (982) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

 

 

He is also for this year:

 

1st in BB allowed in the NL

2nd in hits allowed in the NL

6th in innings in the NL

1st in games stated in the NL

2nd in wins in the NL

2ndi n batters faced in the NL

6th in Wild Pitches in the nL

 

 

Not saying keep him, not saying trade him. Just figured would share the numbers for your comparison.

 

I would prefer to sign him and cabrera long term personally. If I have to choose I would pack Willis bags myself if it meant we could keep miggy long term. Not that I dislike willis, heck I love watching him pitch and try to make sure I am there for every game. But, a player for 5 days that is of the caliber of Cabrera is a once in a lifetime type of player. Even a great pitcher is a once every five days player.

 

I would listen to the offers if I was the marlins specially if the extra money would be used to sign cabrera long term (if that is still possible even).

 

But, I would not "shop" dontrelle willis at all.

[Bucklin12]

I expect DTrain's ERA to improve towards his career average.

 

I expect Olsen to continue to pitch poorly because I'm not impressed by pitchers who have poor command and who are unable to compensate for the poor command by either overpowering or fooling hitters.

 

Most of the fab five are nowhere to be found in BA's top 50 or 100 prospects which leads me to believe that they are overhyped (shocking!) and even if the hype is true I don't think any of them are expected to reach this level in '08 and this team's window ends in '08.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...223top100c.html

 

Yeah, they are/were on the Top 100.

 

Olsen, Sanchez, Johnson, Volstad and get this... Yusmerio Petit were all on the BA Top 100 in 06'

 

In fact Olsen was higher than any of them.

 

The Marlins won't do anything with Dontrelle this year, I don't think. But, I don't think he will be playing with us next year if we could get a guy like Cameron Maybin, Adam Jones, or Jeff Clement, along with some good pitching.

[marlinz_fan]

I really think all the scaled back talk of finances means the Marlins are really reluctant to scream poor while standing in front of a city and state that are also crying poor, because many of us here realize the last thing Loria wants to do is open up his books and be exposed.

 

Wow....that was a mouthful. I'd love to hear more about this. I've felt for a while that Loria's "poor me" excuse was just that, an excuse to not spend any money whatsoever. I'm afraid if he ever does get a stadium, he'll still be the same way and never spend the money necessary to have a real competitive team on the field, but rely on the firesale & cross-your-fingers-&-hope-we-get-good-prospects-in-return philosphy in perpetuity. One of these times its gonna really backfire on him and he's gonna have a team to rival the 1962 Mets/2003 Tigers.

[Out of the Past]

Player A: 65-43 record in 140 games, 3.55 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. 665 K's in 899.2 innings.

 

Player B: 52-48 record in 142 games, 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. 761 K's in 937.2 innings.

 

 

Who's the better pitcher? I'm going with B and that is Brandon Webb since he's come to the major leagues. Player A is Dontrelle Willis.

 

And in that comparison, age is overlooked.

 

If it's who you'd rather have this year and next, it's Webb. If it's over the next 7, it's Dontrelle.

I love DTrain but I think Webb is better and it's not that close. Webb has the better ERA pitching in a hitter's park while DTrain pitches in a pitcher's park. Webb is also very consistent from year-to-year while DTrain is not. Webb is 27 or 28 so he's not an old man. I don't think his age is a factor.

[Admin]

I really think all the scaled back talk of finances means the Marlins are really reluctant to scream poor while standing in front of a city and state that are also crying poor, because many of us here realize the last thing Loria wants to do is open up his books and be exposed.

 

Wow....that was a mouthful. I'd love to hear more about this. I've felt for a while that Loria's "poor me" excuse was just that, an excuse to not spend any money whatsoever. I'm afraid if he ever does get a stadium, he'll still be the same way and never spend the money necessary to have a real competitive team on the field, but rely on the firesale & cross-your-fingers-&-hope-we-get-good-prospects-in-return philosphy in perpetuity. One of these times its gonna really backfire on him and he's gonna have a team to rival the 1962 Mets/2003 Tigers.

 

He will sell the team once he gets a new stadium. Loria's modus operandi is: buy low, beef up payroll to garner some success, demand stadium, when stadium cant be acquired conduct firesale(because honestly, he is "poor" compared to other owners and really has no business owning a pro baseball team), sell for more than what you gave.

 

With a new stadium the team will be worth possibly 3 times as much as what he gave for it, so he wins.

 

Hopefully Cabs isnt lost in the process.

[Out of the Past]

I expect DTrain's ERA to improve towards his career average.

 

I expect Olsen to continue to pitch poorly because I'm not impressed by pitchers who have poor command and who are unable to compensate for the poor command by either overpowering or fooling hitters.

 

Most of the fab five are nowhere to be found in BA's top 50 or 100 prospects which leads me to believe that they are overhyped (shocking!) and even if the hype is true I don't think any of them are expected to reach this level in '08 and this team's window ends in '08.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...223top100c.html

 

Yeah, they are/were on the Top 100.

 

Olsen, Sanchez, Johnson, Volstad and get this... Yusmerio Petit were all on the BA Top 100 in 06'

 

In fact Olsen was higher than any of them.

 

The Marlins won't do anything with Dontrelle this year, I don't think. But, I don't think he will be playing with us next year if we could get a guy like Cameron Maybin, Adam Jones, or Jeff Clement, along with some good pitching.

I was talking about the current batch of prospects. Below is the link to BA's top 100 list published in February '07. There's only 3 Marlins in the top 100 and only 1 in the top 76. I don't think the BA list is the bible or anythign like that but it does carry some weight as it's based on the opinion of experts who give their unbiased opinion while someone from the organization saying how these 5 guys are the greatest arms they've ever seen is nothing but hot air, in my opinion.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...res/263445.html

[TSwift25]

I expect DTrain's ERA to improve towards his career average.

 

I expect Olsen to continue to pitch poorly because I'm not impressed by pitchers who have poor command and who are unable to compensate for the poor command by either overpowering or fooling hitters.

 

Most of the fab five are nowhere to be found in BA's top 50 or 100 prospects which leads me to believe that they are overhyped (shocking!) and even if the hype is true I don't think any of them are expected to reach this level in '08 and this team's window ends in '08.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...223top100c.html

 

Yeah, they are/were on the Top 100.

 

Olsen, Sanchez, Johnson, Volstad and get this... Yusmerio Petit were all on the BA Top 100 in 06'

 

In fact Olsen was higher than any of them.

 

The Marlins won't do anything with Dontrelle this year, I don't think. But, I don't think he will be playing with us next year if we could get a guy like Cameron Maybin, Adam Jones, or Jeff Clement, along with some good pitching.

I was talking about the current batch of prospects. Below is the link to BA's top 100 list published in February '07. There's only 3 Marlins in the top 100 and only 1 in the top 76. I don't think the BA list is the bible or anythign like that but it does carry some weight as it's based on the opinion of experts who give their unbiased opinion while someone from the organization saying how these 5 guys are the greatest arms they've ever seen is nothing but hot air, in my opinion.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...res/263445.html

 

Yeah, but the Volstad/West/Thompson draft class is very high ceilinged but raw...that doesn't rank at the top quickly.

[Shamrock]

you guys are arguing with someone who doesnt think Randy Wolf put up average starter numbers in his career. use your time elsewhere.

:lol :lol :lol

 

 

Go ahead and revist that thread, friend. Look at the numbers I posted and the ones you posted.

 

 

I'm sorry if I don't think that K/9 is the definitive statistic for determining league status.

 

 

I think it is quite possible that you are more stubborn than I am, friend. :thumbup

elpenguino making stuff up...? par!

 

find where I said K/9 is definitive. :lol

[Admin]

West has also been hurt and Marceuax(and maybe Tucker as well eventually) converted to a reliever.

[Shamrock]

ah, so you're backtracking from your previous accusation that I said K/9 is the end all? Figured. Now let's take on the rest of your retarded BS. In your own little world Wolf has been below average NL starter. In reality his career numbers are average....this is a very simple fact. I want to baby step it for you, so I found ERA plus...even then I may be giving too much credit. Wolf is at 103 for his career (and 115 so far this year). Looks like that deal he signed is looking like a bargain as I said it would be. I doubt you could find anyone who knows baseball that would take the position that Wolf has been a below average pitcher in his career. Im sure further explanation is required, but myself and others have wasted far too much time trying to teach you.

[Backin2008]

I think Randy Wolf is a slighty above average pitcher. He's sure pitching well this season for the Dodgers and his career numbers scream AVERAGE PITCHER. 76-63 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.

[pierremvp1]

Penguino....when many different people tell you that you're difficult to argue with....you really need to step back and think about it. Either we're ALL wrong, or you're wrong.