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Florida Marlins Top 20 Prospects for 2008

 

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

 

1. Cameron Maybin, OF, Grade A-

2. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Grade B

3. Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade B

4. Chris Volstad, RHP, Grade B

5. Gaby Hernandez, RHP, Grade B

6. Chris Coghlan, 2B, Grade B

7. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B

8. Eulegio De La Cruz, RHP, Grade B-

9. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Grade B-

10. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Grade B-

11. Kyle Winters, RHP, Grade C+ (major sleeper)

12. Sean West, LHP, Grade C+ (want to see if healthy)

13. Dallas Trahern, RHP, Grade C+

14. Scott Cousins, OF, Grade C+

15. John Raynor, OF, Grade C+

16. Hector Correa, RHP, Grade C+

17. Logan Morrison, 1B, Grade C+ (intriguing power prospect)

18. Burke Badenhop, RHP, Grade C

19. Steve Cishek, RHP, Grade C

20. Mike Stanton, OF, Grade C (seems way too raw to me to rank higher)

 

Other Grade C guys (interchangeable with those above) include Derek Blacksher, Greg Burns, Brett Carroll, Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Kris Harvey, Kyle Kaminska (a sleeper), Torre Langley, Jai Miller, Bryan Petersen, Garrett Purcell, Jameson Smith, and Graham Taylor.

 

Lots of Grade B pitchers here. Tucker, Thompson, Volstad, and Hernandez are all guys that I like, don't get me wrong, but each of them has at least one serious questionmark on their profile that keeps them out of the B+ category for me at this time. See if you can guess that those issues are for each of them.

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So what players does Sickels currently have rated an A ?

Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Cameron Maybin (so far).

GRADES AND WHAT THEY MEAN

 

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

 

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

 

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

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So what players does Sickels currently have rated an A ?

Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Cameron Maybin (so far).

 

 

 

I'm sorry, but he has the Red Sox prospects way over-rated right now. How in the hell can one make the argument that Maybin and Ellsbury are on the same level? It's not even close!

 

In 250 minor league games Ellsbury has 10 home runs, a .389 OBP, 425 slg%

 

In 191 minor league gamess Maybin has 23 HR's, a .396 OBP, .488 Slg%

 

Is it the stolen bases? I think most agree stolen bases are overrated but Maybin has 52 stolen bases, with 13 CS. Ellsbury has 105 to 27 CS (in 60 more games).

 

Is it defense? Most reports I read have them being about equal, with Ellsbury probably more polished right now, but Maybin having more upside range in the future.

 

To top it all off, the most important stat IMO is Maybin is three years younger than Ellsbury, a polished college player! Both have seen time in the majors, with Ellsbury obviously putting up much better numbers, but the sample size is so small that you just can't throw out the minor league numbers like that and use only their brief major league call-ups.

 

And then Sickels has Jed Lowrie! projected as a future star-superstar player?!?!?! Jed Lowrie??? Come on!

 

This isn't anti Red Sox bias on my part, I love Clay Buchholz and think he is the best prospect in all of baseball. If you gave me a choice between Clay+Ellsbury or Maybin+Miller for Cabrera, I'd take the Red Sox package in an instant.

 

Just don't see the argument of how Ellsbury is the same level prospect as Cameron.

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Its not my rankings.

 

Although, in your comparison I have no idea what HRs are doing there in evaluating a MiL player. BB/K ratio is a better indicator and Maybin has 206 K's in the minors to 100 BBs whereas Ellsbury has 127 K's to 111 BBs. I care more about that then HR totals as there are too many factors that make that a pointless indicator of anything.

 

I'll take exception to your defense claim as a lot of people feel Ellsbury was the best defensive outfielder in all of the minor leagues last season.

 

Based on Sickles criteria for awarding an 'A' grade, I'd contend Ellsbury is absolutely more of a sure thing than Maybin at this point as he is a ML ready starting CFer right now and whereas Maybin probably needs more seasoning.

 

I don't think Ellsbury has close to the ceiling of Maybin but based on Sickles' own criteria, I think Ellsbury more than fits in to his rating.

 

I'm not that big on Lowrie, although I know plenty are, but back up your own opinion with little more than exclamation points and question marks. :lol I will always take your minor league analysis on Sox prospects with a grain of salt as I believe you've never seen most of them in person and at this time last year you pegged Pedroia as a 'super utility' player.

 

Sickles has a little more clout when talking about prospects then any of us do.

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Its not my rankings.

 

 

It was more just a general comment. Not directed at you.

 

Although, in your comparison I have no idea what HRs are doing there in evaluating a MiL player. BB/K ratio is a better indicator and Maybin has 206 K's in the minors to 100 BBs whereas Ellsbury has 127 K's to 111 BBs. I care more about that then HR totals as there are too many factors that make that a pointless indicator of anything.

 

HR totals should play some factor in the stats. BB/K ratio is overrated IMO also, so many elite hitters in the minors K a lot, but if they are aggressive and can take a walk like Maybin can, what does it matter? He is still getting on base at a higher clip, and hitting for more power. To me the most telling number in that is 100 walks to 111 walks in 60 less games.

 

I'll take exception to your defense claim as a lot of people feel Ellsbury was the best defensive outfielder in all of the minor leagues last season.

 

His defense is very good, but you will also hear many scouts say that Maybin is gold glve caliber out there too. I don't think the gap is wide enough to make it a factor. This isn't Ellsbury vs. Billy Butler.

 

Based on Sickles criteria for awarding an 'A' grade, I'd contend Ellsbury is absolutely more of a sure thing than Maybin at this point as he is a ML ready starting CFer right now and whereas Maybin probably needs more seasoning.

 

Maybin definitely needs more seasoning and Ellsbury is more ML ready right now to start in CF, but I've never read that as one of John's criteria when grading prospects. Grading a prospect is all about floors and ceilings. IMO Ellsbury and Maybin have similar floors, but I think it is quite clear that the guy that is three years younger and came straight from HS (and was touted as being a raw, but spectacular athlete) and is putting up better minor league numbers right now has the higher ceiling.

 

I don't think Ellsbury has close to the ceiling of Maybin but based on Sickles' own criteria, I think Ellsbury more than fits in to his rating.

 

Again, I'm not looking very hard but I have never seen that as one of Sickel's criteria.

 

I'm not that big on Lowrie, although I know plenty are, but back up your own opinion with little more than exclamation points and question marks. :lol

 

It was a little weak on my part, but I think if you line up his age, numbers and compare him to other prospects such as Antonelli (who received a B+ from John) it is clear why I don't think Lowrie deserves an A- grade. Reserve those grades for the elite.

 

I will always take your minor league analysis on Sox prospects with a grain of salt as I believe you've never seen most of them in person and at this time last year you pegged Pedroia as a 'super utility' player.

 

That's fine with me. Based on last season I was wrong about Pedroia but I don't think I was alone with my doubts on him. You don't see guys that small succeed very often at this level, and I was mostly basing it off his poor numbers from the second half of 2005 up until April 2007.

 

Sickles has a little more clout when talking about prospects then any of us do.

 

No doubt about that. He is probably my favorite guy on the web when it comes to rating prospects, just disagree with him on Lowrie and Ellsbury.

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I would have Volsted and Gabby Hernandez a bit higher, B+ maybe if not quite an A-. Cousin and Raynor have a chance to increase their ratings inmensely next season. Another good year of hittings stats may take them up to the A level. Same could be said of Morrison

 

An A level prospect is a very exclusive level. There is no way that Cousins nor Raynor are ever going to see that A rating. Not that they are bad prospects but B+ is where guys like them, who lack the make-up of blue chippers, will end up if their performance is outstanding.

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I would have Volsted and Gabby Hernandez a bit higher, B+ maybe if not quite an A-. Cousin and Raynor have a chance to increase their ratings inmensely next season. Another good year of hittings stats may take them up to the A level. Same could be said of Morrison

 

An A level prospect is a very exclusive level. There is no way that Cousins nor Raynor are ever going to see that A rating. Not that they are bad prospects but B+ is where guys like them, who lack the make-up of blue chippers, will end up if their performance is outstanding.

I expected, Volstad B+ and Gabby atleast B maybe even B- from Sickels, His rankings are very strict, hardly ever any A's, top prospects are usually A-. I'm upset that Sickels is probably right about Garcia and Delgado at C, I had high expectations for them.

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Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto

 

That's a thing of beauty.

 

And then there is Homer Bailey.

 

Truly a great young core, but I'm not trying to diss you guys when I say that I'm not sure your organization nows how to manage these guys and the roster. Here's hoping someone figures things out and these guys all reach their potential as Reds and not another organization.

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  • 4 weeks later...

So what players does Sickels currently have rated an A ?

Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Cameron Maybin (so far).

 

If you gave me a choice between Clay+Ellsbury or Maybin+Miller for Cabrera, I'd take the Red Sox package in an instant.

 

I don't know about all that...

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So what players does Sickels currently have rated an A ?

Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Cameron Maybin (so far).

 

If you gave me a choice between Clay+Ellsbury or Maybin+Miller for Cabrera, I'd take the Red Sox package in an instant.

 

I don't know about all that...

 

Wow and I thought the Tigers Scout didnt have any respect for Trahern.

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So what players does Sickels currently have rated an A ?

Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Cameron Maybin (so far).

 

If you gave me a choice between Clay+Ellsbury or Maybin+Miller for Cabrera, I'd take the Red Sox package in an instant.

 

I don't know about all that...

Maybin will give you more power with just as much speed. I prefer Miller over Buchholz

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Florida Marlins Top 20 Prospects for 2008

 

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

 

1. Cameron Maybin, OF, Grade A-

2. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Grade B

3. Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade B

4. Chris Volstad, RHP, Grade B

5. Gaby Hernandez, RHP, Grade B

6. Chris Coghlan, 2B, Grade B

7. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B

8. Eulegio De La Cruz, RHP, Grade B-

9. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Grade B-

10. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Grade B-

11. Kyle Winters, RHP, Grade C+ (major sleeper)

12. Sean West, LHP, Grade C+ (want to see if healthy)

13. Dallas Trahern, RHP, Grade C+

14. Scott Cousins, OF, Grade C+

15. John Raynor, OF, Grade C+

16. Hector Correa, RHP, Grade C+

17. Logan Morrison, 1B, Grade C+ (intriguing power prospect)

18. Burke Badenhop, RHP, Grade C

19. Steve Cishek, RHP, Grade C

20. Mike Stanton, OF, Grade C (seems way too raw to me to rank higher)

 

Other Grade C guys (interchangeable with those above) include Derek Blacksher, Greg Burns, Brett Carroll, Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Kris Harvey, Kyle Kaminska (a sleeper), Torre Langley, Jai Miller, Bryan Petersen, Garrett Purcell, Jameson Smith, and Graham Taylor.

 

Lots of Grade B pitchers here. Tucker, Thompson, Volstad, and Hernandez are all guys that I like, don't get me wrong, but each of them has at least one serious questionmark on their profile that keeps them out of the B+ category for me at this time. See if you can guess that those issues are for each of them.

 

 

I AM HIGH ON THIS GUY!!! :notworthy

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I prefer Miller over Buchholz

 

I don't.

 

Buchholz put up better numbers in the minors and he's got a lot more minor league experience, and oh yeah...theres that no hitter he threw in his 3rd career start (I think it was his 3rd).

 

Minor League Stats

 

Innings

Miller 85

Buchholz 285.2

 

ERA

Miller 2.54

Buchholz 2.46

 

K/9

Miller 7.52

Buchholz 11.23

 

WHIP

Miller 1.20

Buchholz 1.00

 

So there you have it. Miller is a little less polished,little bit higher ERA, strikes out fewer batters, and a higher WHIP.

 

This is not to say Miller isn't a good pitcher, because he is. I just think at this point Buchholz is the better of the two.

 

Both will probably go on to have great careers

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Another thing, why did this guy rate Matt Dominguez a 'B' prospect at this point in his career? He's just out of high school for crying out loud. It won't be another 3-4 years until he makes it to the bigs and he has maybe 50 pro at bats, probably in rookie ball which is pretty much a High School All-Star League.

 

If I were rating prospects I'd put him at the bottom of the list for now until he gets a little more experience.

 

A lot of prospect experts are rating a lot of these young guys fresh out of high school + college way too high right now.

 

I think I saw on miLB.com they've got the top 50 prospects list and they've got Price, Porcello, and Wieters on there ALLEADY! With hardly any minor league experience.

 

I understand they're highly touted and everything, but at least wait to see what they do in ONE pro season!

 

It's kinda silly if you ask me

 

/rant

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Another thing, why did this guy rate Matt Dominguez a 'B' prospect at this point in his career? He's just out of high school for crying out loud. It won't be another 3-4 years until he makes it to the bigs and he has maybe 50 pro at bats, probably in rookie ball which is pretty much a High School All-Star League.

 

If I were rating prospects I'd put him at the bottom of the list for now until he gets a little more experience.

 

A lot of prospect experts are rating a lot of these young guys fresh out of high school + college way too high right now.

 

I think I saw on miLB.com they've got the top 50 prospects list and they've got Price, Porcello, and Wieters on there ALLEADY! With hardly any minor league experience.

 

I understand they're highly touted and everything, but at least wait to see what they do in ONE pro season!

 

It's kinda silly if you ask me

 

/rant

 

As long as they have been "ranking" players there has always been that element of confusion. I think what really tends to confuse most of us is when they factor in "projectability."

 

A close friend of mine told me that when he reads Baseball America and he see a ton of Top Ten players in a team's system who are at Rk level, it tells him they don't have a lot of "prospects." High A seems to start separating the men from the boys. He's got a point.

 

I just enjoy the reading and following all the young guys. Some info is better than no info, is kind of how I look at it. I could tell you stories...

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