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Marlins' MLEs for 2007


Nny
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A MLE, or Major League Equivalent, is basically a calculation of what a player would have done if he had played how he played in the minors, at the majors that year.

 

It is NOT a represenative of how a player will do the next year. It's about what a player did, not what a player will do. Do not take it as some factual thing. It's good to take into considering for predictions, and fun to read. :wink

 

It's hard on AA players, and expecially hard on players below AA.

 

Anyway....starting at AAA:

(BTW was the PTBL ever get annouced for Chad Hermansen? Or did we just get cash or something?)

 

Brett Carroll:

.251/.304/.458 16 hr 30 2b 4 3b 26/121 BB/SO (415 ABs)

AA and AAA MLEs combined (.762 OPS in just AAA). Considering his defense, I deffinatly think he can develop into a good 4th OFer. And if he can deveop a better eye or hit better for AVG, to go along with his power, he'd deffinatly be a starter in the majors. Keep in mind though that last year was the first time he had success in his professional career. But I'm rootin' for him.

 

Robert Andino:

.228/.272/.339 9 HR 22 2b 9 3b 37/179 BB/SO 19/12 SB/CS (601 ABs)

Just reafirms to me that he's not ready. Not saying he'll never be ready, still very young...but he's not ready.

 

Scott Seabol:

.247/.312/.448 23 HRs 25 2b 4 3b 50/124 BB/SO

 

But what I find more intesting about Seabol is his MLE since 2004 (Roughly when he would have hit his power prime):

.267/.327/.470 27 HRs 31 2B 2 3b 50/139 BB/SO (Averaged over 650 PAs)

 

Would probably be our best hitting third base option if we kept him haha...dammit

 

What I find most interesting...while a ~.797 OPS from a thirdbaseman isn't all THAT but he has played second in both the majors and minors. He could have been a nice spring training invitee option for teams with holes at second base. I mean, you look at those numbers...he's just like Dan Uggla in that he won't give a big AVG, walks an OK amount while King too much, but also huge 2b and HR numbers...and getting that from 2b is not a bad thing haha. Though he very likely has worse range than Uggla, an that is a bad thing.

 

Val Pascucci:

.225/.333/.428 22 HR 22 2b 1 3b 62/171 BB/SO (444 Abs)

Did we retain him? I hope we did...he's one of those walk, strikeout, or homerun guys. Not as good as a lot of those guys in the majors ofcoarse, expecially in the walk deparment (I think he'd hit for more power than his MLE says, was very hard on him there). However he's only a couple years older than Jacobs and could likely be better (And I don't see how it'd be possible to be worse than Jacobs defensively haha...).

 

John Gall:

.253/.315/.388 9 HR 25 2b 2 3b 35/68 BB/SO (414 ABs)

I like the he walks but he's been in the PCL for 5 strait years and never has had more than an .841 OPS

 

Reggie Abercrombie:

.255/.295/.441 11 HRs 19 2b 6 3b 10/132 BB/SO 37/5 SB/CS (344 ABs)

19 HRs and 65 SBs over a full season PAs...and also 234 strikeouts and 17 walks (atleast he'd hit double digits!). Keep in mind this is also normalized for dolphin stadium, I'm too lazy to do it for minute maid, but his MLE would improve now that he's with Houston.

 

Eric Reed:

.235/.275/.318 0 HRs 9 2b 8 3b 16/80 BB/SO 27/3 SB/CS (302 ABs)

hehe...well, 54 SBs over 650 PA, now if only he could do something else besides run fast

 

John Baker:

.234/.310/.338 5 HRs 13 2b 0 3b 26/80 BB/SO (269 ABs)

 

Against only RHP:

.247/.315/.375 5 HRs 12 2b 0 3b 19/57 BB/SO (210 ABs)

 

Still would like to see what he does at the major league level. Keep in mind his age and that he'd be hitting his power prime soon, I think he could progress into a .750 OPS against RHP...and for a catcher making the minimum, that's good...expecially comapred to what we are currently equipped with.

 

Pitchers:

 

Rick Vanden Hurk:

5.31 ERA, 3.98 BB/9, 9.15 K/9, 1.92 HR/9 (ouch), 1.43 WHIP (SP)

Combined both AA and AAA MLE

 

Paul Mildren:

5.54 ERA, 5.02 BB/9, 5.88 K/9, 1.30 HR/9, 1.66 WHIP (SP)

Though he's gone right?

 

Ross Wolf:

5.17 ERA, 3.64 BB/9, 4.60 K/9 (lol), 0.96 HR/9, 1.55 WHIP (RP)

 

Nate Field:

4.00 ERA, 3.80 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.20 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP (RP)

Now this is VERY interesting

 

Roy Corcoran:

3.98 ERA, 5.46 BB/9, 7.97 K/9, 0.30 HR/9, 1.57 WHIP (RP)

Don't be fooled by his ERA, that was fueled by only giving up 1 HR all year. He's always had a low HR/9 but not THAT low [sinkerballer I take it?]. Look at his whip...a ~5-5.50 ERA is more realistic

 

Daniel Barone:

5.09 ERA, 2.66 BB/9, 5.83 K/9, 1.40 HR/9, 1.42 WHIP

AA and AAA MLEs combined

 

Mauro Zarate:

4.33 ERA, 4.33 BB/9, 7.41 K/9, 1.03 HR/9, 1.43 WHIP

have fun in OAK! /sigh

 

Carolina:

 

Lee Mitchell:

.243/.336/.415 17 HR 26 2b 1 3b 55/188 BB/SO (460 ABs)

Deffinatly very interesting but let's see what he can do next year...gotta remember last year was the first year he actually had success

 

Chase Lambin:

.251/.308/.416 13 HR 28 2b 3 3b 34/136 BB/SO (442 ABs)

I like the line because he's a SS, I dislike the line because he was a 27yo in AA

 

Jai Miller:

.228/.303/.377 12 HR 24 2b 1 3b 42/156 BB/SO (417 ABs)

Just for fun, no way he's ready, only 22...but I gotta admit I'm getting intrigued by him.

 

Brett Hayes:

.212/.248/.299 3 HR 15 2b 0 3b 14/63 BB/SO (278 ABs)

With Rabelo, any chance of him being our catcher this year should be crushed...hopefully he'll improve (only 23 afterall)

 

Pitchers:

 

Gaby Hernandez:

5.87 ERA, 3.88 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.69 HR/9, 1.58 WHIP (SP)

meh...

 

Chris Seddon:

6.02 ERA, 5.68 BB/9, 8.59 K/9, 1.69 HR/9, 1.72 WHIP (SP)

Combines both his AA stats for us and TB...gotta remember he is only 23 (5.82 ERA in just Carolina)

 

Scott Nestor

5.29 ERA, 5.70 BB/9, 8.49 K/9, 1.27 HR/9, 1.65 WHIP (RP)

Obviously not ready but wanted to do him since he was put on the 40man

 

Chris Volstad

6.26 ERA, 3.41 BB/9, 5.31 K/9, 1.68 HR/9, 1.63 WHIP (SP)

Only AA: 5.85 ERA

 

Cabrera trade:

 

Dallas Trahern:

5.16 ERA, 3.35 BB/9, 4.55 K/9, 1.10 HR/9, 1.52 WHIP

Includes his one start in AAA, but basically all AA

 

Burke Badenhop:

4.56 ERA, 2.88 BB/9, 4.81 K/9, 0.94 HR/9, 1.42 WHIP

Considering all but three starts were at A+, this is a GREAT line, due to how hard MLE is on low levels of minor league ball. Well, it loses his luster when you consider he was 24. A lot of people don't like him but I'll be really interested to see what he can do.

 

Eulogio De la Cruz:

4.41 ERA, 3.87 BB/9, 6.48 K/9, 0.81 HR/9, 1.46 WHIP

Mmm...combined both AA and AAA MLE. Just AA (Where he was a starter, reliever in AA): 4.35 ERA, 3.19 BB/9, 7.26 K/9, 1.16 HR/9, 1.35 WHIP. I like him a lot more if he can start.

 

Andrew Miller:

4.26 ERA, 3.79 BB/9, 6.28 K/9, 0.71 HR/9, 1.45 WHIP

Most of his starts came in A+...and again, hard on them, so that's a great line.

 

And the man you've all been waiting for

 

Cameron Maybin:

.244/.331/.369 7 HR 13 2b 2 3b 34/119 BB/SO 20/7 SB/CS (303 ABs)

Just his A+ numbers since he only had a few ABs at his other stints.

Obviously needs more time but still promising numbers considering his age and it's based of A+

over 650 PA: 13 HR, 24 2b, 4 3b, 64/224 BB/SO 37/13 SB/CS

 

Not doing anybody below AA because they are very likely will not make the jump to the majors next year....anyone else people wanna see?

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Few random thoughts. It looks like the makings of a solid bench. Carroll's slugging can't possibly translate that high with that average, but I do think he could turn into a nice backup OF if he can hover the .260 area and walk a little more. I'm intrigued by Jai's potential to do this too. I've thought he's a jerk for a few years, but the jokes on me after his last year. The PCL will pump up his stats so I hope people don't get excited, but you can't deny his BB rate compared to his average. Maybe we got something with him. Mitchell needs to cut some K's, but if he does that he could turn into a player. I don't think his translation is very accurate right now though. Big league pitchers would overpower him and severely reduce that BB rate. I like Baker as a backup within a year too. Spot him against RHP, shield him versus LHP. That looks like a good under the radar move for Beinfest. Throw in Andino to this group, who I agree is 1-2 years away, and yep. That's a potential bench.

 

Mildren is gone. KC if I remember correctly. I think Cruz is really understated too. I don't think we will groom him as a starter. I expect him in July throwing fire out of the pen.

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