So...Jorge Cantu.......

[BlackaWhacka]

So.....Jorge Cantu......

 

 

Statisically speaking, he IS as bad as a defender as people said before, and for as fast as his OPS rose 200 points to be above .900, it's dropping nearly as fast.

 

[/hater]

 

 

 

Career wise, yes. But maybe he worked hard on defensive drills in the offseason and the results are showing? Cantu keeps himself in excellent physical shape (something that couldn't be said about Cabrera last year) and I've read he implemented intense core workouts as well in the offseason. All of this could translate into a better defender (and overall baseball player)

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is that rather than blindly hating the guy, give him the benefit of the doubt THIS year until he regresses to the mean in which you are referring to. You have to admit, he has been a pleasant suprise. Enjoy the ride for a while.

 

Armchair sabermetricians will never give this guy the benefit of the doubt. They would have preferred Jose Castillo's .579 OPS and amazing defense right now (which through some statistical wizardry would be yielding us a greater contribution). Jorge Cantu is the best overall player we acquired for 3B before the season and right now. Yes, McPherson has the greater upside but if it ain't broke don't fix it; he needs the steady ABs right now in the minors to keep his confidence high and improve his game. I would definitely be in favor of benching Cantu if he starts struggling big time and Dallas is still tearing it up, but Cantu is still effective as we speak.

[Rabbethan]

I'm undecided at the moment but something sounds off to me regarding the argument "there is no correlation between runs scored and strikeouts, so strikeouts are inconsequential."

 

While I agree that studies have found no such correlation, I'm having my doubts that it is a definitive response to the problem. Basically I'm saying even if there is a worthy reason, I'm having trouble finding one. Of course, as we know there is such a correlation between runs scored and OBP.

 

 

The stat with the strong correlation to runs scored is OPS, not OBP.

No, in the past I've seen studies with reasonable correlation (ca 0.9) for both OBP and SLG individually as well.

I don't buy those studies.

 

I'm not a statistician but I do know how to use excel and used it to calculate the correlation between runs scored and OBP and OPS for the NL for each of the last three seasons.

 

2007

Runs & OBP - .855

Runs & OPS - .964

 

2006

Runs & OBP - .747

Runs & OPS - .948

 

2005

Runs & OBP - .802

Runs & OPS - .882

 

I'll bet you get similar results for just about every other year. OPS rules.

Wait, are you saying that there is no correlation between runs and OBP, but there is correlation between runs and OBP + SLG?

[PitchingWinsGames]

He's saying there is MORE of a correlation between OPS and Runs then OBP and Runs

[Out of the Past]

He's saying there is MORE of a correlation between OPS and Runs then OBP and Runs

 

Yes.

[Nny]

Armchair sabermetricians will never give this guy the benefit of the doubt. They would have preferred Jose Castillo's .579 OPS and amazing defense right now (which through some statistical wizardry would be yielding us a greater contribution). Jorge Cantu is the best overall player we acquired for 3B before the season and right now.

 

Someone likes to make baseless assumptions, or simply chooses to ignore the countless posts made in the offseason about just how bad Castillo and is vastly overrated defense is.

 

Amezaga is statisically our best option at third against RHP. Well, he'd be better at short or second, but no point in moving Hanley (pre-season it was because to see if he could improve his defense, and now it'd be because his defense has improved) and Uggla's value would decrease if he's moved over to third. So putting Alfredo at third would do. When Cantu hits like he actually hits (in other words, like he has done lately, and not the few game hot stretch he had), I'd take Alfredo over him marginally against RHP when it comes to offense, and there's a big gap in their defensive abilities consider Alfredo is one of the best defensive infielders in the game and Cantu is one of the worst. The difference in their range and reaction time is huge.

[Admin]

Well, here's one study that shows a greater very clean correlation (0.92) between OBP and runs scored:

 

 

 

This was taken using AL statistics from 1997 to 2001.

 

My original statement was simply that there is a correlation between OBP and runs scored. In all cases this appears to be true. I'm inclined to believe that the OBP component deserves greater weight in a OBP+SLG statistic.

 

 

Frankly, I'm not inclined to think otherwise unless I run the numbers myself over a multi-year span and find otherwise.

 

 

You can believe whoever you want but for the time being I'm going to believe the published study.

[Nny]

The formula Eric posted before (OBP*1.5+SLG) is what's generally resulted as the highest correlation to runs through studies.

 

I've seen that number go anywhere from 1.4 to 1.8 though.

[PitchingWinsGames]

First of all, if there is a correlation between OPS and runs scored, there HAS to be a correlation between OBP and runs scored, let's just get that out of the way...

 

Secondly, OBP has actually been found to be worth more than just 1x... I think it was something like 1.4 or some such number, but that's off the top of my head

[Admin]

First of all, if there is a correlation between OPS and runs scored, there HAS to be a correlation between OBP and runs scored, let's just get that out of the way...

 

Secondly, OBP has actually been found to be worth more than just 1x... I think it was something like 1.4 or some such number, but that's off the top of my head

That's exactly what I was saying.

 

For some reason people here are getting the impression that I said OBP is better than OPS when that simply isn't true.

[Out of the Past]

For some reason people here are getting the impression that I said OBP is better than OPS when that simply isn't true.

 

I think you left the impression that OBP is just as good as OPS and in my opinion that's ridiculous. OBP is good. OPS is much better.

[Admin]

For some reason people here are getting the impression that I said OBP is better than OPS when that simply isn't true.

 

I think you left the impression that OBP is just as good as OPS and in my opinion that's ridiculous. OBP is good. OPS is much better.

Where?

 

All I said was that there was a correlation. There certainly is. You are reading far to into this.

[BlackaWhacka]

Armchair sabermetricians will never give this guy the benefit of the doubt. They would have preferred Jose Castillo's .579 OPS and amazing defense right now (which through some statistical wizardry would be yielding us a greater contribution). Jorge Cantu is the best overall player we acquired for 3B before the season and right now.

 

Someone likes to make baseless assumptions, or simply chooses to ignore the countless posts made in the offseason about just how bad Castillo and is vastly overrated defense is.

 

Amezaga is statisically our best option at third against RHP. Well, he'd be better at short or second, but no point in moving Hanley (pre-season it was because to see if he could improve his defense, and now it'd be because his defense has improved) and Uggla's value would decrease if he's moved over to third. So putting Alfredo at third would do. When Cantu hits like he actually hits (in other words, like he has done lately, and not the few game hot stretch he had), I'd take Alfredo over him marginally against RHP when it comes to offense, and there's a big gap in their defensive abilities consider Alfredo is one of the best defensive infielders in the game and Cantu is one of the worst. The difference in their range and reaction time is huge.

 

All right then, lets restart this season and place Amezaga at 3rd. Who would be the regular at CF? Cody Ross? Brett Carroll? haha

 

I won't even include Maybin because he obviously needs time in the minors, and judging from his issues with Ks it was the right decision. Both of those guys have their issues. Ross has below average range in center and is slumping while Carroll's bat isn't ready yet. So while you might consider Amezaga to be the better option at 3rd, you open up a hole at center. BTW nice play by Cantu tonight in the 1st. Maybe his defense is improving!

[Nny]

1) There were a TON of cheap CF options this past offseason. Hell Lofton is still available although I doubt he'd come here.

 

2) It's extremely unlikely Cody keeps up at this pace and at the very least should put up a good OPS against LHP

 

3) Carroll would put up roughtly a low .700 OPS, being fair. Based of the past few years, and optimistic OPS for Cantu would be mid to high .700 OPS. And the main difference then would be that Cantu is one of the worst defensive IFers in the game, whereas Brett is an above average defender. It'll likely increase our OF defense aswell...I'm unsure if Carroll will have as much range as Alfredo, but at the very least you're looking at a huge difference at arms to make it at worst push.

 

Cantu had a big 4 game hot streak. You can't take those numbers away from him, you can remove any player's "good" games to make him look bad, but we're at such a small sample size at this point in the season that it also greatly skews his numbers. Outside of those 4 games, including tonights game, he has a .247/.318/.377/.695 line, and I think that's more along the lines he'll be. And again, his defense has been as bad as advertised, not just with his range but his bad arm.

[Admin]

Didn't Lofton make something like $6 million last year? I don't see how you can consider him a cheap option. Unless the Marlins found someone for under $1 million, I highly doubt they would have paid for a CF even if they were aware that Maybin wasn't ready. Amezaga for the time being is best suited as a platoon mate for Ross (who I expect to improve).

 

I don't think you give Cantu enough credit. He has a very solid ML season under his belt were he hit very well against RHP (.832 OPS). I don't expect him to keep this performance up all season but for the time being you can't say he's going to hit rock bottom either.

[Marlins2003]

1) There were a TON of cheap CF options this past offseason. Hell Lofton is still available although I doubt he'd come here.

 

2) It's extremely unlikely Cody keeps up at this pace and at the very least should put up a good OPS against LHP

 

3) Carroll would put up roughtly a low .700 OPS, being fair. Based of the past few years, and optimistic OPS for Cantu would be mid to high .700 OPS. And the main difference then would be that Cantu is one of the worst defensive IFers in the game, whereas Brett is an above average defender. It'll likely increase our OF defense aswell...I'm unsure if Carroll will have as much range as Alfredo, but at the very least you're looking at a huge difference at arms to make it at worst push.

 

Cantu had a big 4 game hot streak. You can't take those numbers away from him, you can remove any player's "good" games to make him look bad, but we're at such a small sample size at this point in the season that it also greatly skews his numbers. Outside of those 4 games, including tonights game, he has a .247/.318/.377/.695 line, and I think that's more along the lines he'll be. And again, his defense has been as bad as advertised, not just with his range but his bad arm.

 

1) Who exactly were these "cheap" centerfielders? For the record, the words "cheap" and "Lofton" shouldn't be used in the same sentence. And I like Kenny Lofton.

2) It's unlikely Cody is a member of the team in a week or ten days unless he absolutely blows up. His days are numbered. The only thing that saves him is an injury to a starter.

3) Stating what Carroll will or won't do is 100% fantasy.

4) Your assessment of Cantu's month is 100% wrong, I'm going to chalk it up to bad math because I know you well enough that you wouldn't purposely make stuff up just to further a good character assassination as some others might. Maybe you were looking someone else's numbers or you looked in the wrong column, but previous to Cantu's "four game hit streak", he wasn't hitting .247 for the season, here's his BA (I didn't bother to write all the additional OBP etc stats down):

 

april

11 263

12 267

13 265

15 255

16 273

17 263

19 295

20 308

21 314

22 338

23 325

25 309

26 294

27 289

29 309

 

Each of these came from the MLB scorecard page, end of each game. I didn't start until the eleventh because before that the numbers fluctuate so wildly they aren't representative of anything. Two weeks ago Cameron Maybin was batting (from memory) .474, and so many wanted him called up, he's hitting .214 after his last game.

 

I also didn't bother accumulating the other stats but obviously if he wasn't hitting .247 five days ago (actually .325) I have to assume the OBP of .318 has to be way off as well as the rest of the line.

 

According to the MLB Player's Page he's hit .359 for his last ten games.

 

As for his arm, I haven't seen anything close to a problem in that department to call his arm "bad" but I guess if you see what you want to see (and I was out of town for three days and missed last night's game so if he made some huge error I admit to not seeing it). He has made some defensive miscues to be sure but at the same time he hasn't been a total embarrassment there either.

 

I remember watching him the other night unable to field a ball cleanly but smart enough to use his body to keep the ball in front of him and eventually throw the runner out at first. This is not Brooks Robinson at third base but considering the circumstances he's done a reasonably good job defensively. And the range argument, I have no idea where that comes from. None at all. Not in 2008. We've all seen him make plays on the foul side of the bag, rush bunts and grounders, move to his left pretty darn well. Absolutely he makes more errors than you want from an MLB third baseman but this is a guy who was never a third baseman, and had played a grand total of one (1) game there since 2006 (a total of 62 in 2005).

 

I looked at his three basic defensive stats and he's in the middle of the pack on one and towards the bottom in the other two, but again if you have actually seen the guy play this season you can't call his defense "bad". It's wrong and unfair. There are guys in each category you'd love having play here.

 

I think you have to look at the totality of the package and for what we're paying the offensive dividend we're getting his weaknesses are outweighed by his shortcomings.

[Out of the Past]

For some reason people here are getting the impression that I said OBP is better than OPS when that simply isn't true.

 

I think you left the impression that OBP is just as good as OPS and in my opinion that's ridiculous. OBP is good. OPS is much better.

Where?

 

All I said was that there was a correlation. There certainly is. You are reading far to into this.

 

I guess I misunderstood you.

[Nny]

I'm too lazy to go back through a list of FAs but I also didn't mean in the 500k cheap we got Cantu on, and upwards of 5m, where cheap because argumentative.

 

as far as the math goes

 

In that 4 game hot streak, he has 10 h in 17ab. his year totals are 29h and 94 ab. (29-10)/(94-17) = 19/77 = .2467... (so round up to .247). He was a MONSTER in those 4 games, but just as you say, we're at such a short part in the season that stats get skewed easily. Outside of those 4 games, where he just absolutely crushed the ball, he has not been very good. He's had good games, yes, but also a lot of not so good.

[Marlins2003]

I'm too lazy to go back through a list of FAs but I also didn't mean in the 500k cheap we got Cantu on, and upwards of 5m, where cheap because argumentative.

 

as far as the math goes

 

In that 4 game hot streak, he has 10 h in 17ab. his year totals are 29h and 94 ab. (29-10)/(94-17) = 19/77 = .2467... (so round up to .247). He was a MONSTER in those 4 games, but just as you say, we're at such a short part in the season that stats get skewed easily. Outside of those 4 games, where he just absolutely crushed the ball, he has not been very good. He's had good games, yes, but also a lot of not so good.

 

There has to be something wrong in the math because since April 10th his average was never down to .247 and look at his average for the last ten days on his bio page. he was hitting ...let me go look...maybe I'm wrong but...

[Admin]

Yeah, 2003 I don't quite follow what you did there.

[Marlins2003]

I see what you're talking about...sheesh you go out of town for a while...it wasn't the LAST four games which i assumed because i wasn't here, it was four games from 19th-22nd...I see what you mean.

 

what throws you off is he was hitting .263 before that streak, but in the immortal words of ex-wives everywhere, and the favorite words they love to hear "you were right and I was wrong". lolol

[Admin]

Still, I see nothing to indicate that he won't be a solid one year replacement for Cabrera.

[bobbob1313]

How do we calculate solid? If he matches his career highs, he'll be an average offensive 3B and a pretty terrible defensive one. So he'd probably be worth a win or 2, nothing major.

[MarlinNole]

I want to keep him...but I like Andino...we need to find a spot for him.

[Admin]

How do we calculate solid? If he matches his career highs, he'll be an average offensive 3B and a pretty terrible defensive one. So he'd probably be worth a win or 2, nothing major.

Why do you need to calculate anything?

 

He's a cheap, one year replacement performing close to his career best numbers. Unlike MacPherson and Castillo, he has actually had success at the major league level. Without a ML ready 3B prospect, Cantu is probably the best 3B option we could have hoped for in terms of both cost and productivity.

 

His bad defense is overstated. He hasn't been much of a liability so far this season and has performance at the plate easily exceeds ands masks those shortcomings.

[bobbob1313]

I think he's been very bad defensively, worse even than Miguel. At least Cabrera had a strong arm.

 

And Cantu's success at the ML is very average. I'm not saying it's a sure thing McPherson could do better, but i'm definitely not writing it off like some. Cantu is an unimpressive player.