Hmmm....very good article

 

Tough choices: Which players will be out?

With the dismantling of the 1997 championship team fresh in the minds of many, Marlins executives say they want the club to remain competitive but `everything has to fit right.'

BY KEVIN BAXTER

kbaxter@herald.com

 

NEW YORK - Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria was still winded from his celebratory dash around the bases at Yankee Stadium when the questions began.

 

Who will be on the Marlins next season?

 

The last time the franchise won a championship, under owner H. Wayne Huizenga, the team's management said winning the title cost too much and dismantled the club. The Marlins won just 54 games the next season.

 

''We're reminded of it every day,'' team president David Samson said Sunday.

 

Only two players on the Marlins' postseason roster -- outfielders Jeff Conine and Juan Pierre -- are signed for next season. Just four others -- pitchers Josh Beckett, Nate Bump and Dontrelle Willis, plus outfielder Miguel Cabrera -- are not eligible for either free agency or salary arbitration.

 

Even manager Jack McKeon isn't a lock to return next season because his contract also has run out.

 

''We want to remain as competitive as possible,'' Samson said. ``But everything has to fit right. We have to make good decisions.''

 

Samson says the team lost $20 million this season when it had a relatively modest $52.5 million payroll. With estimates putting the Marlins' payroll at something close to double that if they try to keep everyone from the World Series roster, Samson and Loria face tough choices.

 

''I have to figure out what their budget's going to be,'' McKeon said of his future plans. ``I don't know what their plans are. And I don't think they do right now.''

 

A major part of that analysis will be what to do with the team's three free agents, closer Ugueth Urbina, catcher Ivan Rodriguez and second baseman Luis Castillo. The players have until Nov. 8 to declare their intentions, and the club has until early December to respond. Urbina filed for arbitration Sunday.

 

Most observers believe the Marlins will let Urbina go and will make a sincere, if not particularly lucrative, offer to Castillo, who wants a multiyear deal and probably will command an annual salary of around $7 million.

 

LOWELL AND LEE

 

However, Rodriguez and infielders Mike Lowell and Derrek Lee -- both eligible for salary arbitration -- will be the focus of a lot of offseason attention.

 

Rodriguez's agent Scott Boras is believed to be seeking a five-year, $50 million deal for the catcher, who will be 32 next season. There's little chance the Marlins will commit to a contract that long, but Rodriguez lives in Miami Beach and has said repeatedly he would like to play here next season.

 

The arbitration cases are more difficult to predict. Players eligible for arbitration can accept the team's offer or take their cases to an arbiter and argue for a higher salary. Arbitration is a gamble for both sides because the arbiter's decision is final. If a team loses cases, it could wind up paying millions more in salaries than it budgeted for.

 

After an All-Star season in which he hit a team-high 32 home runs, drove in 105 runs and led the National League's third basemen in fielding, Lowell is expected to get more than double his $3.7 million salary. Lee, the first baseman who hit 31 homers, could get as much as $8 million.

 

Signing those two alone would raise the club's payroll by $8 million.

 

Add Castillo and Rodriguez, and the payroll could grow by about a third. Factor in the raises expected for Beckett, shortstop Alex Gonzalez and pitchers Brad Penny and Carl Pavano -- all of whom should double their 2003 salaries -- and it seems some players will have to go.

 

LOSING ENCARNACION?

 

Starting right fielder Juan Encarnacion likely could end up as the odd man out. He made $3.45 million this season while driving in a career-high 94 runs, tying his career best with 19 homers and going all season without an error.

 

''Very few teams, the same 25 guys are there year to year,'' Samson said. ``What I think about is keeping the momentum going that has been built throughout this year and that we plan to keep building throughout the offseason.''

 

What could change all this, of course, is a stadium deal.

 

''The key to this franchise is to increase its revenues,'' Loria said before Game 1. ``And perhaps that's done through a new facility at some point.''

 

''That's going to be a big factor,'' McKeon said of the stadium. ``Maybe what has happened now will make a difference. I really do believe that they're sincere about trying to be a very, very competitive ball club. I don't think in their minds they're thinking about pulling whatever happened a few years ago.''

 

Few fans seem to think so, too. Many are ready to accept some changes.

 

Arthur Rodriguez, 26, of Miami Lakes, whose family owns several restaurants in Miami-Dade, said he realizes there is no way to keep this entire team together.

 

''To keep this team the same way is going to cost $90 million,'' he said.

 

Said his brother, Eric Rodriguez, 23: ``I realize they can't keep the team together, but hoping for it, that's another thing.''

 

Admin Pettit, of Coral Springs, said he believes Loria will do the right thing.

 

''I think it's a different mind-set,'' he said, comparing the current ownership to 1997. ``The fan base is understanding and will be supportive. Losing a few players is the reality.

 

``But if they keep the core, I think they are going to make some surprising moves.''

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I really hope that Pudge stays. ::crosses fingers::

Of Encarnacion, Castillo, Lee, and Lowell, I think Lowell should stay of all of them, even though I'm a big Castillo fan.