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I believe he is arbitration eligible. It would be nice to sign Cantu to a 2-3 year deal sometime this year.

He is arbitration eligible in 2010, and becomes a free agent for the 2011 season.

 

If you sign Cantu for 2-3 additional seasons, the only players above club control the Marlins will be able to afford in 2011 are Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, and Cantu. Four players. No flexibility. No chance of retaining any of Anibal, Miller, Hermida, Lindstrom, or Nunez and keeping payroll under $45 million. I will be more than happy to show a 3 year contract trend if you want. I have the numbers in excel, but don't have the time to do this right now.

 

We don't have money for this. We have a stadium - but in 2012. Samson has made it very clear payroll will still match revenues, so we can only expect moderate bumps in 2010-2011 (I'm thinking to the $40-45 million range overall, which is $8-13 more million than 2009 payroll). We have legit 1B alternatives with Gaby and Logan who will eventually replace Cantu regardless as they have similar (if not a lot more with Logan) upside, so spending excessive (free agent year) money on him is not helping us when we have to retain all of our pitching.

 

The best course of action with Cantu is to give him arbitration for 2010, let him play 1B/3B and easy in Gaby, Logan, and Coghlan next year. Then when we don't resign him, we'll get Type A draft compensation and we'll have a killer draft in 2011 with three first round picks.

 

Long term contracts should be considered for only these guys on our 25 man roster. We can afford to do this as their salaries will escalate in respect to our stadium. Cantu? He is gonna get "really" paid one year to early.

 

After 2009 - One of Johnson/Nolasco. Probably Johnson here.

After 2010 - Volstad, Maybin, one of Miller/Anibal. Probably Miller.

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is getting annoying.. Everything is about getting prospect back! We dont need it! We have Matt Dominguez, keep Cantu until the 2011 season when Matt will be ready! Dont need to keep trading players for prospects when we are loaded!

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is the mindset Jeffrey Loria has put into the fans brains.It is acceptable in certain situations, but i urge you all not to go overboard with it.

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is getting annoying.. Everything is about getting prospect back! We dont need it! We have Matt Dominguez, keep Cantu until the 2011 season when Matt will be ready! Dont need to keep trading players for prospects when we are loaded!

 

 

Did I say anything about getting a prospect at third base for Cantu? No, I didn't. What if we can get a great pitching prospect for him? You wouldn't do it? I would.

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is the mindset Jeffrey Loria has put into the fans brains.It is acceptable in certain situations, but i urge you all not to go overboard with it.

 

 

That's because his formula for success has been working. We can get a really, really good prospect for Cantu.

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is the mindset Jeffrey Loria has put into the fans brains.It is acceptable in certain situations, but i urge you all not to go overboard with it.

 

 

That's because his formula for success has been working. We can get a really, really good prospect for Cantu.

And the prospect might not pan out.Also the Marlins haven't made the playoffs since 2003.

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is the mindset Jeffrey Loria has put into the fans brains.It is acceptable in certain situations, but i urge you all not to go overboard with it.

 

 

That's because his formula for success has been working. We can get a really, really good prospect for Cantu.

And the prospect might not pan out.Also the Marlins haven't made the playoffs since 2003.

 

Doesn't matter. When a team offers you a top of the line prospect for Cantu, you take it.

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1-2 of our pitchers (at this point, you would have to say Josh Johnson, for sure), Maybin & Hermida (assuming they pan out) are more important, and should be given a long-term contract before Cantu.

 

We have plenty of corner infield depth, long-term, in the minors. Gaby Sanchez for the "short long-term," which will eventually lead to many years of Dominguez/Morrison.

 

This is hoping Hermida continues his great walk rates this year & maybe, somewhat, duplicate that .870 .OPS he had as a 23 year old, when he showed why so many considered him a top prospect.

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is the mindset Jeffrey Loria has put into the fans brains.It is acceptable in certain situations, but i urge you all not to go overboard with it.

 

 

That's because his formula for success has been working. We can get a really, really good prospect for Cantu.

And the prospect might not pan out.Also the Marlins haven't made the playoffs since 2003.

 

Doesn't matter. When a team offers you a top of the line prospect for Cantu, you take it.

NO

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We would be an amazing team with an infield of Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera.

 

The thought gives me chills. :santa

 

 

It gives me chills on how many errors they will make.

 

But they will hit pleanty of longballs and remeber Chicks Dig the Longballs!

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I'd love to have Cantu back next year, but you gotta think about the prospect we can get for him if he continues his great year.

This is the mindset Jeffrey Loria has put into the fans brains.It is acceptable in certain situations, but i urge you all not to go overboard with it.

 

 

That's because his formula for success has been working. We can get a really, really good prospect for Cantu.

And the prospect might not pan out.Also the Marlins haven't made the playoffs since 2003.

 

Doesn't matter. When a team offers you a top of the line prospect for Cantu, you take it.

NO you build to win, no need to build for the future anymore!! Thats the reason we have no "fanbase" because of trading for prospect. Yes it has worked but now you build to win and build around all the prospect we have!

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I believe he is arbitration eligible. It would be nice to sign Cantu to a 2-3 year deal sometime this year.

He is arbitration eligible in 2010, and becomes a free agent for the 2011 season.

 

If you sign Cantu for 2-3 additional seasons, the only players above club control the Marlins will be able to afford in 2011 are Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, and Cantu. Four players. No flexibility. No chance of retaining any of Anibal, Miller, Hermida, Lindstrom, or Nunez and keeping payroll under $45 million. I will be more than happy to show a 3 year contract trend if you want. I have the numbers in excel, but don't have the time to do this right now.

 

We don't have money for this. We have a stadium - but in 2012. Samson has made it very clear payroll will still match revenues, so we can only expect moderate bumps in 2010-2011 (I'm thinking to the $40-45 million range overall, which is $8-13 more million than 2009 payroll). We have legit 1B alternatives with Gaby and Logan who will eventually replace Cantu regardless as they have similar (if not a lot more with Logan) upside, so spending excessive (free agent year) money on him is not helping us when we have to retain all of our pitching.

 

The best course of action with Cantu is to give him arbitration for 2010, let him play 1B/3B and easy in Gaby, Logan, and Coghlan next year. Then when we don't resign him, we'll get Type A draft compensation and we'll have a killer draft in 2011 with three first round picks.

 

Long term contracts should be considered for only these guys on our 25 man roster. We can afford to do this as their salaries will escalate in respect to our stadium. Cantu? He is gonna get "really" paid one year to early.

 

After 2009 - One of Johnson/Nolasco. Probably Johnson here.

After 2010 - Volstad, Maybin, one of Miller/Anibal. Probably Miller.

 

Once again, I believe your numbers are way off. And I use the same reasoning you are using to justify your thoughts. Samson saying payroll will reflect revenues.

 

The closer that opening gets, the more season tickets will be sold. There was a press release just days after everything was passed saying ticket sales had spiked. Once ground is broken they will dramatically increase. Opening day 2010 will have the season ticket base jump from the 5K of this year to somewhere in the 10K range. A bigger jump for 2011. And if you don't have some sort of season package (my guess is the number jumps to around 20K), good luck getting into Opening Day 2012. Season ticket holders have first option for single game tickets before they go on sale to the general public. You can bet the farm I'm buying extra tickets for friends. And you can bet I'm not alone in thinking this. People are going to want to be a part of this. Bad way to put that....People are going to NEED to be a part of this. For the first couple years it will be the place to be seen. In South Florida, that is what is important.

 

Higher revenue equals higher payroll. Much higher payroll than those predictions.

 

But we do agree on signing Cantu long term. Not necessary. He is a lock for now. Sign him to another one year deal just to see if the guys that are in the minors pan out. Never a guaranteed thing. If they aren't, sign him for a 3 (or so) year deal during or near the end of the 2010 season, locking his bat and glove up for the Grand Opening years.

 

The other guys you mentioned are also not immediates for signing long term. They can't go anywhere. May as well add Boni to that list as well. Although the rumors abound on JJ, it's not a given. Anything can happen with a pitcher. Or any player for that matter. So if you are very selective with who gets signed to what, you can take that extra present cash availability and use it to fill in holes elsewhere, putting a better product on the field, which increases revenues for the present and immediate future.

 

Signing players long term now saves $$$ down the road. But we are looking at saving $$$ now and using a different approach to getting revenues up to fill that new pond for the first few years. I could care in the least how other teams do things. We aren't other teams and we have shown we don't do things like other teams do. And it works for us. That's the bottom line...It works for us.

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We would be an amazing team with an infield of Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera.

 

The thought gives me chills. :santa

 

 

It gives me chills on how many errors they will make.

 

But they will hit pleanty of longballs and remeber Chicks Dig the Longballs!

 

I would have loved to have those 4 in our infield. It'd be an amazing team no doubt.

 

Anyhow, Cantu has been the best player on our team so far this season. Why would we trade him away?

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I believe he is arbitration eligible. It would be nice to sign Cantu to a 2-3 year deal sometime this year.

He is arbitration eligible in 2010, and becomes a free agent for the 2011 season.

 

If you sign Cantu for 2-3 additional seasons, the only players above club control the Marlins will be able to afford in 2011 are Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, and Cantu. Four players. No flexibility. No chance of retaining any of Anibal, Miller, Hermida, Lindstrom, or Nunez and keeping payroll under $45 million. I will be more than happy to show a 3 year contract trend if you want. I have the numbers in excel, but don't have the time to do this right now.

 

We don't have money for this. We have a stadium - but in 2012. Samson has made it very clear payroll will still match revenues, so we can only expect moderate bumps in 2010-2011 (I'm thinking to the $40-45 million range overall, which is $8-13 more million than 2009 payroll). We have legit 1B alternatives with Gaby and Logan who will eventually replace Cantu regardless as they have similar (if not a lot more with Logan) upside, so spending excessive (free agent year) money on him is not helping us when we have to retain all of our pitching.

 

The best course of action with Cantu is to give him arbitration for 2010, let him play 1B/3B and easy in Gaby, Logan, and Coghlan next year. Then when we don't resign him, we'll get Type A draft compensation and we'll have a killer draft in 2011 with three first round picks.

 

Long term contracts should be considered for only these guys on our 25 man roster. We can afford to do this as their salaries will escalate in respect to our stadium. Cantu? He is gonna get "really" paid one year to early.

 

After 2009 - One of Johnson/Nolasco. Probably Johnson here.

After 2010 - Volstad, Maybin, one of Miller/Anibal. Probably Miller.

 

Once again, I believe your numbers are way off. And I use the same reasoning you are using to justify your thoughts. Samson saying payroll will reflect revenues.

 

The closer that opening gets, the more season tickets will be sold. There was a press release just days after everything was passed saying ticket sales had spiked. Once ground is broken they will dramatically increase. Opening day 2010 will have the season ticket base jump from the 5K of this year to somewhere in the 10K range. A bigger jump for 2011. And if you don't have some sort of season package (my guess is the number jumps to around 20K), good luck getting into Opening Day 2012. Season ticket holders have first option for single game tickets before they go on sale to the general public. You can bet the farm I'm buying extra tickets for friends. And you can bet I'm not alone in thinking this. People are going to want to be a part of this. Bad way to put that....People are going to NEED to be a part of this. For the first couple years it will be the place to be seen. In South Florida, that is what is important.

 

Higher revenue equals higher payroll. Much higher payroll than those predictions.

 

But we do agree on signing Cantu long term. Not necessary. He is a lock for now. Sign him to another one year deal just to see if the guys that are in the minors pan out. Never a guaranteed thing. If they aren't, sign him for a 3 (or so) year deal during or near the end of the 2010 season, locking his bat and glove up for the Grand Opening years.

 

The other guys you mentioned are also not immediates for signing long term. They can't go anywhere. May as well add Boni to that list as well. Although the rumors abound on JJ, it's not a given. Anything can happen with a pitcher. Or any player for that matter. So if you are very selective with who gets signed to what, you can take that extra present cash availability and use it to fill in holes elsewhere, putting a better product on the field, which increases revenues for the present and immediate future.

 

Signing players long term now saves $$$ down the road. But we are looking at saving $$$ now and using a different approach to getting revenues up to fill that new pond for the first few years. I could care in the least how other teams do things. We aren't other teams and we have shown we don't do things like other teams do. And it works for us. That's the bottom line...It works for us.

 

The numbers aren't way off. Jumping payroll $8 million dollars, which is 125% of 2009's payroll, is a HUGE increase. Bonifacio should not ever be entertained for a long term contract. First, he isn't good. Second, even if he is "good" (.350 OBP/.400 SLUG/50 SB/Great Defense), that player is not costing you a lot in arbitration versus the risk of him performing long term to what you are paying him. It's simply not necessary for who he is. You buy out studs - Hanley, Cabrera, Beckett, maybe Maybin, Volstad, etc - you don't buy out your complimentary slap hitting middle infielder.

 

Saving money now (as in 2010) is trading Uggla, Ross, Amezaga, and Pinto off the team for more pitchers. Saving money longterm is giving 5 year deals to Johnson, Maybin, Volstad etc, and getting some of their free agency years for cheap. The Marlins have to do both.

 

2010 payroll

 

C John Baker $415,000

1B Gaby Sanchez $400,000

2B Chris Coghlan $400,000

3B Jorge Cantu $5,250,000 < - 6th year arbitration, reasonable estimate ($1.75 raise, expecting .800ish OPS)

SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 < - Contract

LF Jeremy Hermida $4,250,000 < - 5th year arbitration, reasonable estimate ($2 mil raise, expecting. 800ish OPS)

RF Scott Cousins $400,000

CF Cameron Maybin $410,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

B Wes Helms $950,000 < - Contract

B Brett Hayes $400,000

B John Raynor $400,000

B Veteran 2B/SS/3B $1,000,000 < - reasonable veteran contract

 

SP Josh Johnson $4,000,000 < - 5th year arbitration, reasonable estimate ($2.7 raise, this is expecting a break out)

SP Ricky Nolasco $5,000,000 < - 5th year arbitration, reasonable estimate ($2.7 raise, this is expecting him to be good again)

SP Chris Volstad $415,000

SP Andrew Miller $2,250,000 < - Super two, reasonable estimate in line with other comparables (assuming 25 starts)

SP Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000 < - 4th year arbitration, reasonable estimate in line with other comparables (assuming 25 starts)

RP Matt Lindstrom $2,000,000 < - 4th year arbitration, reasonable estimate in line with other comparables (assuming 30 saves)

RP Leo Nunez $1,100,000 < - 4th year arbitration, reasonable estimate in line with other comparables

RP Jose Ceda $400,000

RP Rick Vanden Hurk $410,000

RP Hayden Penn $410,000

RP Aaron Thompson $400,000

RP Dan Meyer $410,000

 

$40,480,000

 

Everyone else is club controlled. And this is easily arguable, as if Cantu hits a .900 OPS, he gets more, and let's say Hermida isn't as good he goes down, or Nolasco gets hurt and misses some time he doesn't get as much. These are base lines, and through predicting 8-9 new contracts, they will all basically average out into the same price even if I'm wrong a half million on all of them give/take. Likewise, I don't feel like arguing that someone like Cantu should be at 1B. Sure, put him there, put Bonifacio at 2B, and Coghlan/Gaby at 3B. Whatever this is just for SALARY.

 

Keeping the starting rotation and top bullpen arms together is what matters. Fielding the team above next year, is an enormous commitment from the Marlins towards the future and "satisfying the fan base." We don't have another $7 million to plop for Uggla, and if you want to cut Hermida, we're now fielding an outfield of 22 year olds across the board. That's not a good idea.

 

This makes the most sense for current production and staying competitive in 2010, short term payroll, and longterm concerns, as it gives us time to evaluate younger Hermida and Cantu than older Uggla and Ross, and it preserves all of the pitching, so we can make sure we retain the best pitchers we have longterm.

 

Now 2011, that's where it gets interesting.

 

SS Hanley Ramirez $11,000,000

SP Josh Johnson $6,500,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $7,500,000

SP Andrew Miller $4,500,000

SP Anibal Sanchez $4,000,000

 

It's going to cost around $33 million for 5 players. Hermida would also break $6 million if he's still around. Cantu would cost $12+ in free agency. Lindstrom would make over $3-4, Nunez over $2. Just keeping that together is $60 million. I don't know how much you expect the Marlins to spend in 2011, but they are going to have to make choices again here.

 

They can't, and they won't, keep everybody. I suspect $40 million in 2010, around $45 million in 2011. They can field that in 2011 by keeping Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, Miller, and then having about $8 million to play with to make choices on Anibal, Hermida, Lindstrom, Nunez, and bench players. But if you want to think the team has a $50-60 million payroll in 2011, knock yourself out.

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