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Projecting our prospects future lines


Nny
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Does Morrison really project to have that much power?

 

 

He was projected to have 25 plus HR power before he even broke out in Jupiter.

 

His GB rates will likely keep him from getting too high though.

 

 

I've seen more than once before that the worst case for Morrison would be comparing him to a guy like Lyle Overbay, which sounds like a real good worst case. Not sure where I saw that though...might've been here, lol.

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I probably said way too much about a guy I view as a bench bat lol

 

Well, he's finally up. And he gets to ride the bench.

 

Regardless, I figured he would be best to post up now so fans can know around what to expect from it.

 

Coming up through the minors, he's been known as a line drive contact hitter with good patience but questionable pop. Unsurprsingly, this shows up in the numbers.

 

 

 

While at first glance you might look at the numbers and say "Hey, those are very similiar power numbers to Maybin" (.175 ISO, 16 HRs for Maybin), they infact come to those numbers very differently. The first thing to understand is age relative to league. Maybin, at 22 years old, is still growing. Gaby, 25, is basically in his prime years now. The second thing is their HR/FB rates (Or, % of times a FB goes for a HR). Gaby's HR/FB is 9.6%, whereas Maybins is 14.3%. This shows that Maybin has a lot more raw power.

 

The other thing with Gaby is the park factors. Greensboro, the Class A affiliate of the Florida Marlins, is a hitters park in a hitters league. Jupiter, the Class A Advance affiliate of the Florida Marlins, is a massive pitchers park in a pitchers league. So, unsurpsingly, power numbers for hitters are normally high in Greensboro but take a massive drop when they go to Jupiter. This happened to Gaby; after posting a .286 ISO and 17% HR/FB in Greensboro, he went down to .154 ISO and 6% HR/FB. Carolina is a rather nuetral park, and he posted pretty impressive .200 ISO although just a 9.8% HR/FB. His ISO mostly came from doubles, as he finished the year with 42 doubles and 1 triple (29% of his hits). Unfortunately, this number should lower as he reaches the majors due to better offense. Normally for a prospect, you hope that doubles turn into home runs as their body fills out and they gain more power. But again, with Gabys age, there is not much room for more power projection. That means the balls will stay in the ball park, and better defensive players will track down more of those balls.

 

To make a comparision to another former "old for his league, question his power" Marlin is none other than Josh Willingham, who didn't get to AA until 25 and AAA until 26. Willingham has had quite a career, with a MLB ISO of .212 and HR/FB of 14%. However Willingham showed a lot more in the minors then Gaby did. Take a look at Hammer v.s. Sanchez(Note: the former Class A affiliate with Kane County, but it's park factors are similiar to Greensboro, meaning it's a hitters park. NYPL, where the Short Season affiliates are, are mostly neutral. Also, HR/FB data only goes back 2005)

 

 

 

As can be seen here, Willingham had a continual power improvement from ages 23-26, posting a .275 ISO in that time spawn. Sanchez, meanwhile, actually took a step back, only posting a .172 ISO. An absolute huge difference.

 

There's also a worry about Sanchez's LHP and RHP splits. He has crushed LHP (.963 OPS) but hasn't fared that well agaisnt RHP (.831 OPS). This is mostly do to a big BABIP difference. There isn't much of a power difference (.204 ISO and 10.3% HR/FB against LHP, .169 ISO and 9.2% HR/FB), nor BB/K difference (1.10 BB/K against LHP, 0.93 against RHP). Basically about what you'd expect for most players. However, he has a .356 BABIP against LHP and a .318 BABIP against RHP. This is fueled by a 20% LD rate against LHP while only 17% against RHP. Will it even out, or is it something we need to expect? Just won't be something we know until he's up here and does his thing.

 

Defensively, he was once considered a horrible defensive first baseman but made huge improvements and won the gold glove award for the southern league. However, I have my doubts of just how much he improved, and although I do expect him to be better than average, I don't expect him to be great. Base running wise, he's not a big lumbering firstbaseman but he isn't fast either, but he's suppose to be a smart base runner.

 

 

So with all that being said, projection time

 

 

 

As you can see, these just really aren't impressive WARs.

 

 

What most likely happens: He displays basically average power, keeping around the same HR rate but losing some doubles to better defenses. It also allows him to still keep a solid BB rate, but overall he's nothing special. The biggest problem being the position he plays, with the average 1B OPS normally hovering in the .800-.850 range. He could still have a career ahead of him, Doug Mientkiewicz took a very similiar career line of .271/.360/.405 and had a long career. However, Mientkiewicz was also worth 10+ runs on defense. If Gaby can get to that level, he could duplicate Mientkiewicz's career. The biggest problem with this for Gaby is that he has Logan Morrison breathing down his neck. And while there are rumblings of moving Morrison to LF, it then becomes a question of "Do you want Gaby Sanchez at first base, or Scott Cousins/Bryan Petersen/John Raynor/ect in the OF? With how cheap 1B/LFs are on the FA market now, is is worth spending that extra 5 mil to get a mid .850 OPS bat?". Unfortunately, he'll probably be a 1B/3B back up, and the fact that he was called up to ride the bench just kind of affirms it.

 

 

Best case scenerio: He's a late bloomer and his HR/FB raises, turning those doubles into HRs. This is certainly possible, some players took a long time to hit their power peak. It's just, unfortunately, rare. His power though is really the only thing keeping him from being an slightly below average to average player and being a good player, everything else though he already does well.

 

Worst case scenerio: He doesn't develop the HR power, and a lot of those doubles start turning into outs, dropping him to the high-end power of a slap hitter. This is already happening in AAA. Last year a hit went for a 2B/3B 28.7% of the time, this year just 13.6%. Pitchers then pound the zone, dropping his ability to take a walk. If this happens, he's probably not even a major leaguer.

 

It should also be noted that a lot of things depend on how well Sanchez can field third base. If he can field 3b at a neutral level, that'd basically add 1 win to his WAR, turning him into a good player. Big difference between a .770 OPS 1b and a 3b. But this is again a question of how good he is defensively, and a lot of scouts don't think he can handle the position well enough to play everyday.

 

My assumption is that the Marlins played him so much at 3b in AAA to see if he could handle it. If he could, he'd ursup Bonifacio. If he couldn't, he'd ride the bench. And we've now seen what happened. Again, just an assumption, but there would be no reason to have him riding the bench if they viewed him as a starting player still.

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Footnote: I certainly don't want to try and censor any opinion but I'd REALLY appreciated if this wasn't turned into a rehashed Marlins1 v.s. Spike debate. Post your opinion to the public, but you guys already know each others stance, please don't fill this thread up with it again.

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I'm fairly certain both dominguez and maybin are going to be at least solid .750+ bats with excellent defense at least, and there's very little doubt in my mind they will both be seen as busts by most of the idiots here.

 

 

 

Not necessarily.

Chris Coghlan is well-liked.

 

Not an apt comparison. Coghlan is short and white. He is automatically beloved by any baseball fan for being scrappy regardless of his actual on field production.

 

There is undoubtedly some extreme Coghlan love going around. He has been been the best option we've had as a leadoff hitter but we were so tormented by the struggles of Maybin and Bonifaico that somehow Coghlan made a .700 OPS look all-star caliber.

 

And a .700 OPS guy should not be an untouchable anywhere in the linuep, especially in perhaps the second most offensive position in baseball, where .700 OPS players signs minor league contracts and get cut in ST.

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If you look at it that way, then we won ths trade.

Andrew Miller is better than Willis. Cameron Maybin may not be better than Miguel Cabrera, but as Nny pointed out, he could be worth around 5 wins because of his defense, offense, and base running ability.

And Burke Badenhop is not useless. Why does everyone always forget he was in the trade?

 

The other day I broke down this trade and mentioned Badenhop.

 

LOL 'Miller is better than Willis'. Who isn't at this point? Daniel Cabrera?

 

Sure, if you look at everything like this, then nothing is ever bad.

 

I think AT BEST Miller is starting to look like a Doug Davis. He badly needs to fix his control problems, or he's never going to get better than what we have now.

 

Maybin is still only 22, so he has the most upside. But the rest of the pieces besides Maybin in this deal are either borderline MLBers or busts.

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I'm staying patient with Andrew. We can pretty much thank the Detroit organization for rushing him up to the bigs so soon. Yes he has struggled this year, but I think he's shown enough upside for me to still have plenty of faith in him. He has looked just fine in his minor league appearances in 2008 and 2009. He's 24 years old. In a best case scenario, you would probably expect his progress to be further along than it is now, but like I said, I'm staying patient with him. Every time I watch him pitch, I usually like what I see...there's something about his delivery that makes me think he can be a middle of the rotation type of guy. So, I didn't post stats to back my case up, but I'm not sure stats would really help me right now, lol.

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Addendum: Gaby Sanchez and defense.

 

I just came across the Total Zone defense stat.

 

You can read about it here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/totalzone-takes-on-the-minors/

 

While far from perfect and it gets the usual "fielding stat caveat" I think this is huge and I'm sad I didn't see it when it came out. And on the major league level, it surprisingly correlates well to other fielding statistics.

 

Gaby Sanchez follows basically what scouts have said. in '06 he was in fact horrible. in 49 games he has -5, Meaning he'd be about -15 over a full season. In '07 he played exactly neutral defense for the league at +0. And then in '08 he was +5 runs and +11 over /150. However, defense in leagues is not relative to one another. As you go up, defense gets better. The difference in AA 1b and a MLB 1b is about 4 runs over 150 games (8 runs over 500 chances, 150 games = about 250 chances), meaning his +11 /150 goes down to +7, which is still very good. I'll still stand by the +3 I had him at but he very well could be Doug I'm not looking up how to spell his last name right now.

 

However, the more surprising thing is how it rates his 3rd base defense. He was at +8 runs at third, +19 /150. Now this is a small sample size and very unlikely he's that good. To get a correlation of .5 for IFers, you need about 350 chances, and he was only at 155 last season. But this should he very well could be neutral defense at third, and like I said that would be a huge plus for him and would turn his bat into an everyday player.

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Logan is a very, very interesting case study, in that he's changed a lot in basically every single year he's been in the minors.

 

For a back story, he was drafted as a draft and follow by the Marlins in 2005. He ended up signing in May '06 and was just another player as an 18 year old in the GCL and NYPL.

 

'07 was a breakout of sorts. He was by no means a prospect house hold name, but several places like Future Fish (Ranked #23) and John Sickels (Ranked #17) rated him as an interesting power prospect. As a 19 year old, he hit 24 HRs in Greensboro with a HR/FB of 16.8%. However, that was the only thing he did well. His batting AVG was a poor .268 thanks to a BABIP of .293. He's K% was barely acceptable at 22%, and his walks weren't impressive for a power spec at only 9%. Overall, you'd hope for something like

 

 

 

Basically, Mike Jacobs. And unsurprisingly, Jacobs had a similar MILB career to Logan's 06 numbers.

 

Then '07 happened. His power numbers decreased, his ISO dropped 50 points, he only hit 13 HRs with a HR/FB of 10.4%. Power is expected to drop from Greensboro to Jupiter but, for being a power prospect, it was really on the high end.

 

And yet he was vaulted to being one of the best prospects in baseball. He still walked at 10% but dropped his K's down to 16%, but he also had a massive .374 BABIP. This was not unwarranted. His LD% in Greensboro was only 13.5%. But in Jupiter, it was a massive 21.1%. He went from being an power prospect to being a line drive contact hitter. However, a .374 BABIP is huge, especially with someone as slow as he is. Certainly, there are people like Miguel Cabrera who are able to sustain high BABIPs while being slow thanks to just how well they hit the ball, but you cannot expect somebody to be a player of that caliber. At which point you're basically expecting something around

 

 

 

The biggest thing to understand with his HRs is he has a very high GB% that hovers around 50%. With 20 HRs there, that's still a 14% HR/FB rate assuming a 31% FB rate.

 

Then the AFL happened. He .404/.444/.667/1.111 with 5 HRs in 107 PAs, showing power again. And the lack of walks was far from concerning: when you're hitting .404 and only strike out 14% of the time, that shows you're not getting a lot of balls/bad pitches.

 

In '07 he showed power, in '08 he showed average (and then showed the same power in the AFL). But he never showed a great ability to walk. Not bad, but not exactly good either. Then '09 happened and made him the complete hitter. He's currently leading all of pro baseball outside of possibly short season leagues in walk% at 21%, with only 1 less walk then game played in AA.

 

I don't know how unprecedented it is, but having a guy walking at an average rate to having the best walk percent in all of baseball is quite a huge jump.

 

His BABIP has taken a large step back, at just .289, but he's still hitting a ton of LDs (22%) and GBs (52%) showing that it's very likely an aberration. He still has his BABIP skills.

 

He's also showing a lot more raw power, having a HR/FB of 16.7%. Still, over 650 PA he'd only be on pace for 18 HRs, thanks to only hitting a FB a fourth of the time (25.2%).

 

At this point, he truly is the completely package. He walks, he doesn't strike out, he hits for average, he hits for power. There is basically no hole in his offensive game.

 

Now the difference between him being a very good hitter and being one of the best in the league comes down to his GB and FB rates. If he can turn ~10% of his GBs into FBs, it basically adds about 5 HRs. And when you consider that he is a slow runner, the decrease in GBs should not put that much of a damper on his BABIP.

 

Now to his other aspects. Scouts describe his defense as "Good arm, good hands, bad range." To me, this generally speaks below average. Now yes, the fact that fielding stats have yet to gauge how good a 1b is at catching throws to him, it's doubtful it adds a significant amount, and lack of range is not a good thing. Total Zone rated him at -5/150 last season, which would put him at about -10 at the ML level. I definitely don't expect him to be that bad. Running wise, well, he's slow. He shouldn't cost us much on the bath paths but slow is slow.

 

 

 

What most likely happens: His lack of FBs keeps him from really breaking out in the HR department, but his high HR/FB still allows him to hit a lot. His LD and other abilities allow him to be in the upper 1/4th in the league in BABIP, but his speed keeps him from being in the elite category. He walks, he doesn't strike out, basically he is your prototypical mid-.800 OPS hitter

 

Best case scenario: Speed be damned, his ability to hit the ball puts him at the upper echelon of BABIP. He's able to drop his GB% and raise his FB%, allowing him to break the 30 hr cusp. This new found power then allows him to walk more, and he's patient enough to take the walks not not strike out. He'll likely always K too much to be the next Albert Pujols, but everything else here is basically Miguel Cabrera reincarnated.

 

Worst case scenario: He just hits too many GBs to hit for above average power. His ability to hit BABIP is still good, but as he faces better pitching and defenses it only becomes good and not great.

 

Due to playing first base, and not exactly being impressive there or on the base paths, his WARs aren't that impressive given his OPS. There is the chance he moves to the OF (about +5 runs), but I'd expect him to be about 5 runs worse out there, essentially nulling the positional bonus.

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What most likely happens: His lack of FBs keeps him from really breaking out in the HR department, but his high HR/FB still allows him to hit a lot. His LD and other abilities allow him to be in the upper 1/4th in the league in BABIP, but his speed keeps him from being in the elite category. He walks, he doesn't strike out, basically he is your prototypical mid-.800 OPS hitter

 

Best case scenario: Speed be damned, his ability to hit the ball puts him at the upper echelon of BABIP. He's able to drop his GB% and raise his FB%, allowing him to break the 30 hr cusp. This new found power then allows him to walk more, and he's patient enough to take the walks not not strike out. He'll likely always K too much to be the next Albert Pujols, but everything else here is basically Miguel Cabrera reincarnated.

 

Worst case scenario: He just hits too many GBs to hit for above average power. His ability to hit BABIP is still good, but as he faces better pitching and defenses it only becomes good and not great.

 

 

Hi Nny. I was going to respond here or fishguts or (defunct so redacted), but I guess I'll do it here.

 

Good stuff, but you're being a bit too optimistic on Logan. He's more likely a .780-.810 OPSer unless he improves those ground ball rates, unless he's the extremely rare guy who can ISO around .180 with a 48% (or higher) GB rate or he's able to hit over .300. And without the power threat, he'll probably get attacked to the point he doesn't hit .300 (but that's just a guess) or walk at such a high rate (again, a guess, but I'd bet his walk rate drops to around 10-12% if the power isn't there)

 

Logan's a career 49.2 GB%, and he's not trending in the right direction (sample size obvi), with 46.7% in 2007, 47.6% in 2008, and 51.2% in 2009. Now yeah, like you said, this isn't necessarily the worst thing, but take a look at the MLB players who had over 48% GB in 2006, 2007, and 2008 (don't like using 2009 b/c of how many games are left):

 

2006: http://www.fangraphs...on=2006&month=0

 

2007: http://www.fangraphs...on=2007&month=0

 

2008: http://www.fangraphs...on=2008&month=0

 

Now, a list of those with a GB% > 48 and an ISO of .180 or better:

 

2006: (ended up not doing this, 2008 and 2007 took too long)

 

2007: 2/26. Vlad (.223 ISO with 48.5 GB and 14.5 FB, but it's Vlad), Torii Hunter (48.8 GB, .218 ISO, 15.1 HR/FB)

 

(Other notables: Jose Guillen had a GB of 48.3 and a 170 ISO for an .813 OPS. Russell Martin had GB of 48.4 and ISO of .176 for OPS of 843. Gary Matthews had 50.8 GB with .167 ISO and 11.8 HR/FB. Kotchman had 50.6 FB with .172 ISO and 8.1 HR/FB)

 

2008: 3/24. Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips (261 BA, 181 ISO, with 13.2% HR/FB), JJ Hardy (48.4% GB, 283 BA, 195 ISO, 821 OPS) ( (Fred Lewis ISO'd .158 and OPSed .791 with a .282 BA, but his HR/FB rate was lower than Logan's. Still, I guess he shows it's possible in 2008). Still, 3/24 with GB > 48% ISO'd over .180.

 

(I may have missed someone, so you can go back and check. I did this pretty quickly).

 

I mean, I know it's a 2 year sample size, which isn't a tremendous amount. But 5/50 guys have a GB rate over 48% and an ISO over .180. So yeah, 10% chance (exclusive of HR/FB consideration I know), which isn't good.

 

 

I realize Logan's HR/FB% makes him more likely to put up a solid ISO with such a high GB rate. And that's fine, but at the same time, it's reasonable to assume that when he enters the majors Logan's GB% increases b/c major league pitchers are more likely to attack him that way than by trying to get him to pop up (b/c of his power).

 

And, as you said (and unlike Maybin wiht his high GB%) Logan's not going to be beating out grounders with his speed, and major leaguers suck up more ground infield ground balls with their defense than do minor leaugers. And with the increased GBs, the BABIP drops, and the BA drops, and then the OPS drops.

 

It's probably not unprecedented for a guy to drop his GB% by 5-10% upon entering the majors (which Logan would probalby have to do to OPS in the mid 800's), but I can't imagine it happens often. I mean, maybe it does sometimes. But intuitively I'd guess GB% probably increases upon entering the majors.

 

And still, even if Logan's only ISOing .150-.160 (which I think is more reasonable based on his GB rates and HR/FB rates), he can still OPS ~.825 in those years where he's able to hit ~.290, so long as his walk rates don't drop too much once pitchers see he's not a huge power threat. That's a pretty productive 1B, but at the same time - not the monster 1B everyone's hoping for.

 

Now Logan could always tweak his swing to put the ball in the air more - kind of like what Maybin's staring to do at AAA - but is Pressley the guy to do that? And is it worth counting on Logan tweaking his swing in order to reduce his ground balls? And, seeing as he's a solid bet to be at least league average in terms of 1B, is tweaking his swing with the hope it will produce more fly balls worth it.

 

I guess I don't totally disagree with your projections, just your "most likely case." I don't have the faith that Logan's able to cut down on those ground balls enough to ISO high enough to put up that mid 800s OPS. He's far more likley to fall into the .150-.160 ISO range unless he's part of that 10% that can ISO +.180 with a GB rate of 48% or better.

 

Now, even as a high 700's/low 800's he won't be a disappointment, and he could still be a very useful player. But if people are pretty set on Logan being a mid-high 800's hitter, it's not going to happen unless he changes some thigns in his swing/plate approach so that those GBs drop. And, to be honest, most people will probably be pissed if Logan turns out ot be a low 800's OPS guy, just like they'll be pissed when Maybin's a .770 OPS player and Dominguez doesn't OPS like .850.

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I'd suggest posting on fishstripes. I don't really go there because I'm not one for blogs, I just post some of my stuff there at times, but there's a few smart people over there, and generating discussion is always a good thing. I'll respond in about 30 minutes-hour when I have time to immense myself in information but needless to say I disagree.

 

edit: just realized you said fishguts and not fishstripes lol. Yeah there probably isn't going to be much discussion at fish guts for awhile. I'm posting your response on fish stripes and John Sickel's site though because I think it's both an interesting discussion not just for Logan but for all specs and could lead to more good discussion.

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First I want to say thanks for posting, what you said about Maybin obviously had an impact on the update projection.

 

Secondly, an easy way to do it would be to import everything into excel (or open office which is what I use but same basic thing lol). Just a heads up since you were complaining about the time it took

 

Thirdly, you can't compare Logan to guys without raw power. I think that's the main problem with the "GB" thing. A lot of GB hitters are slap hitters, and you can't compare Logan to slap hitters. I would assume HR/FB rate would be the best way to do it.

 

Since 2002-2008, there have been 203 times a player has posted a GB rate over 48%. Only 25 players have had a ISO of 180 or above, or only 12%. However, again, that's taking in a lot of slap hitters.

 

If we reduce it to only including players with a HR/FB north of 14%, which I assume you'd agree would be the least HR/FB to expect?

 

By doing this, we reduce the list to 34 times. 20 out of those 34 times a player has posted .180 or better ISO (59% of the time). The average ISO is .183.

 

List:

 

 

 

If we then look at these individual players careers

 

These are the players to compare him too. GB hitters with power. And they show power. I think this is also a more positive thing for Maybin, and something I wish I looked more into. I probably wouldn't really change his projection power wise (with a discussion on Fish Stripes i'd lower his BABIP for is high and low), since Maybin is having a horrible HR/FB year in AAA this year (8%). But he does have a MILB HR/FB of 14%. Average ISO of players with a HR/FB between 8%-14% = .108 ouch lol.

 

Anyway, if we then look at those players careers, to properly compare power numbers

 

 

 

Keep in mind guys careers like Admin Walker, GB% and HR/FB are only post 2002

 

So several guys with a GB% north of 50 have been power hitters. Considering I projected a HR/FB 17.6%, I don't think the ISO of 187 is too high. THe arguement would be on the HR/FB. If you drop that to 14%, and no change in other XBH, it'd drop to 20 HRs and a 0.161 ISO. .287/.372/.448/.820 not changing anything but HRs. However, considering he's posting a 16.1% HR/FB in AA as a 21 year old, and has always been labeled as a power prospect, I think it's fair to say he will be north of 16% HR/FB.

 

Though, it probably would be best to project him to be on the low end. I think as can be seen by my Maybin and Gaby projections they're lower then what most people expect. I don't know just how many people are reading these because I know not that many go into the minor league forum, and I plan to post it in the main forum when it's all finished, but the last thing I want is for people to expect the prospects to come up hammering. Plain and simple people think prospects are going to do better than what they really shoudl be expected, especially for fans of the team the prospect is on. And I let my love of Logan overshadow that. So when I post it up there I might adjust it.

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interesting addendum re: Logan and HR/FB

 

Jupiter's HR park factor for HRs has basically been 0.70 since 2003.

 

If we apply that to Logan's HR/FB (10.4%)

 

10.4 / .7 = 14.9%

 

Not sure if it works like that or not but interesting none the less.

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interesting addendum re: Logan and HR/FB

 

Jupiter's HR park factor for HRs has basically been 0.70 since 2003.

 

If we apply that to Logan's HR/FB (10.4%)

 

10.4 / .7 = 14.9%

 

Not sure if it works like that or not but interesting none the less.

 

 

I've been applying this to a few guys and it gives a bit lower HR/FB rate then what other guys have done later

 

Obviously just doing a few samples but I think this is actually big to understanding power numbers guys put up in jupiter. For so long we've been "it's jupiter, power will go down" but without really an understand of how much it'd improve.

 

Fun fact with stanton: posted a 27% HR/FB in Greensboro, people said that was too high. Applying this to his jupiter numbers, his HR/FB goes from 19.5% to 27.9%. However, his Jax HR/FB hasn't been too hot (19%)

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I'll say thanks for the reply and I don't know that I'm going to be able to get in everything I want to now, but a few things before I get started:

 

1. I realize that slap hitters comprise most of those who have GB rates > 48, so yeah I like that you threw them out. That's good.

 

2. No problem with projecting Logan's HR/FB over 14%, but to a point.

 

3. This is going to be tough for me to do b/c there's no MILB GB data on most of these guys, but one thing I want to look at is the ISO of those 17 players you listed in their final few (I'm thinking two, preferably when they're roughly age 22) seasons before heading to the majors. I don't like looking at career MILB ISO b/c most guys (the non-freaks unlike Stanton) won't hit for power at a young age. But looking at the ISO of those 17 in the seasons before their callup, and seeing just how much that ISO dropped compared to their career rates, may give a reasonable expectation of whether Logan can maintain a decent ISO.

 

Of course this assumes, among other things, their GB tendencies in teh minors were similar to their MLB ground ball rates.

 

and I mean this isn't going to be perfect, but it's kind of illustrative b/c it can teach us what to expect in terms of MILB ISO v. MLB ISO for primarily GB hitters. But there's also the problem of late developing power and limited data on the MILB careers of the older guys...so I mean, maybe it's not the best idea, but at the same time it does work in showing how much of a dropoff (or increase) in MLB ISO could be expected.

 

One problem, though, is the age/level difference between Logan and these guys. That hurts the comp in some cases.

 

Logan's ISOing .184 as a 21 (soon to be 22) year old at AA. He ISOed .166 as a 20 year old at A+. So, he's improving, which is good. He'll probably get another year in the minors at AAA, so we'll have more data and stuff then, but for now that's all we can go on with Logan.

 

But for Logan to ISO 180 (and OPS around .850), he'll (obvi) have to maintain or increase that ISO. And the group of players you mentioned doesn't show that most of those guys were able to maintain or increase their MILB ISO once they entered MLB.

 

Anyway, among the players you named:

 

Greive ISOed .290 as a 21 year old in 589 PA between AA and AAA. -> MLB ISO way lower, wow was he a good prospect who didn't work out

 

Preston Wilson ISOed .244 as a 22 year old in A+/AA and 298 as a 23 year old in the AAA Marlins season. -> older than logan but may work next season. MLB ISO lower

 

Jacque Jones ISOed ..209 as a 23 year old at AA and .146 as a 24 year old at AAA (only 210 PA though) -> again, older, but MLB ISO higher and lower

 

Ken Harvey ISOed .168 as a 23 year old at AA (only like 350 PAs) and .188 as a 24 year old at AAA -> older, and I mean...Ken Harvey? lol. But MLB ISO lower

 

Admin Bigbie was kinda all over the place

 

Shawn Green ISOed .074 as a 20 year old in AA and ..166 as a 21 year old in AAA -> MLB ISO higher, at higher level than Logan

 

Hunter Pence doesn't have enough of an MLB career yet, but he ISOed .192 as a 22 year old in A+, .250 as a 23 year old in AA. -> MLB ISO lower, but he's prob too young

 

Gary Matthews ISOed .173 as a 23 year old AA, .130 as a 24 year old in AAA, and .151 as a 25 year old in AAA. -> MLB ISO higher

 

Jeter ISOed .105 as a 21 year old at AAA -> MLB ISO higher

 

Simon's all over in terms of MLB-minors

 

Tejada ISOed .183 as a 21 year old in AA (last full season) -> MLB ISO really similar

 

Hunter ISOed .168 as a 21 year old in AA, ..156 as a 22 year old in AA, and .206 as a 22 yeyar old in AAA (but less than 100 PAs) -> MLB ISO higher

 

Bernie Williams ISOed .179 as a 23 year old in AAA. - MLB ISO same, but this was the end of Bernie's career

 

Zeile and Walker are so far towards tthe end of their career it's probably not a good idea to compare their MILB #s to their MLB numbers in this case. Same thign with Bernie.

 

 

 

I think that's everyone?

 

Anyway I guess the point I'm trying to make with this is that a bunch of these guys saw thier ISOs drop or stay the same upon entering MLB. After Logan's AAA year it'll be easier to tell, but right now he'd have to maintain or increae his ISO in order to meet that .180ish mark, and among that group over their career not all that many were able to increase or maintain a .180ish ISO for their career.

 

That said, at his peak Logan may be able to go above the .180 iso mark. I wish there were numbers on guys like Walker nad Williams to see what their GB rates were like at the peak of their careers.

 

The other thing about this though is that most of these guys aren't the same type of athletes as Logan (Jeter, Hunter, Matthews, Pence, Tejada). Logan's a bigger, stronger, less athletic type compared to some of them. I mean, looking at the list, not many of these guys were 1B/LF types with defensive issues. Not sure if that's in Logan's favor (b/c then he'd be expected to grow into his power, and i mean this helps the hope for a 17% HR/FB projection) or against him (failrue to adjust b/c of lack of athleticism/long swing, hits more ground balls upon arrival in majors).

 

Yeah that was a ramble I didn't proofread but I hope you got the point I was hoping to make - that alot of the guys from that group of GB hitters weren't able to maintain their MILB ISO, and if Logan can't maintain his current MILB ISO he won't hit that magic .180 mark, for whatever reason (increased GB, drop in HR/FB, whatever)

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