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Cody's trade value


Nny
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So Cody Ross's name has come up a lot in trade talks, which is no surprise considering how well Maybin is doing in NOLA and the fact that Cody will be in his second year of arbitration after the year. Although the Marlins could fit him in, he likely will not be here next season. Ontop of which, he's likely our most valueable trading chip. So what exactly is his value?

 

First you have to understand how good he is.

 

(Note: I compiled these numbers during the ASB, not going to re-do it all as it should barely have changed)

 

He took over the CF job for the Marlins in 2008. Since then, he has posted a .810 OPS and 17.1 wRAA On defense, he has a 9.7 UZR and a 9 plus/minus. Very good numbers. He has not been too good on the base paths though, which is normally expected out of a CFer, with only a 0.2 EQBRR. All togeather, this is a total of 27 runs going by UZR and 26.3 going by plus/minus.

 

Looking at CFers with atleast 120 games played (roughly 50% of games) since then, his 27 runs with UZR rank him 8th out of 26, and his 26.3 runs with plus minus rank him 7th. Needless to say, he's been one of the leagues better CFers.

 

Sorted by Offense+BR+UZR:

 

 

 

Sorted by Plus/Minus:

 

 

 

However, this also gives advantages to guys with more PAs and Innings. If we rate offense, base running, and fielding to a 150 game sample size, this is what we get

 

For UZR:

 

 

 

And Plus Minus:

 

 

 

As you can see, Cody is one of the better CFers in the league. By adding then runs for replacement level and positional (+24 runs total), we're talking about a 4 and a half win player, which is very good.

 

Of other interestings notes, since 2006 Cody Ross has the ISO of any CFer at .233. He ranks 23rd in all of baseball during that time period, ahead of guys like Burrell, Chipper, Holliday, and Morneau.

 

And dating back to 1901, he has the 9th highest career ISO of any player with atleast 50% of their games in CF. We're talking about one of the most powerful CFers of all time. Certinaly not Mantle or Griffey level, but still very impressive.

 

The team that trades for him also wouldn't just be getting a rental; he's under team control until after the '11 season. He's making 2.225m this season and will likely make around 3.5-4m in arbitration this coming offseason.

 

So, then, what exactly is his value?

 

Most likely, it's around what McClouth got. Although going by statistics, McClouth is worth one less run then Cody, you have to remember that not everybody goes off statistics and McClouth won a gold glove. There are also reports that there were those in Atlanta's office that wanted COdy instead because they thought they could get him for cheaper. I think it's safe to assume that McLouth's haul is a good comp though, which was 3 borderline C+/B- minus guys.

 

However, the Marlins really do not need depth, as they have one of the deepest minor league systems and not many ML holes to fill. So at that point, you're hoping for something more along the lines of one B spec and one C+ spec.

 

So then, who could be matches?

 

Cincinatti Reds: They're currently running Taveras out in CF and as you can see, he's very very bad. However, they have supposedly been more interested in Hermida. Though, with Bruce being really the only impressive OFer left there, getting both probably wouldn't be unheard of.

Baseball America's top 10 | John Sickel's top 20

 

New York Yankees: If they aren't sold on Brett Gardner's production, he could be a fit for the Yanks. Gardner is also currently on the DL, leaving the CF job to Melky.

Baseball America's top 10 | John Sickel's top 20

 

Kansas City Royals: While they did trade for CoCo Crips this past offseason, we can see above that he's not exactly impressive, and they have been making moves to be better now. However, Cody's below average career OBP of .324 might be too high for Dayton Moore.

Baseball America's top 10 | John Sickel's top 20

 

Detroit Tigers: WIth Grandsen, Cody would move to a corner spot, but they could use the OF help

Baseball America's top 10 | John Sickel's top 20

 

Chicago White Soxs: They just traded for Mark Kotsay, just enforcing how much they could use Cody

Baseball America's top 10 | John Sickel's top 20

 

Seattle Mariners: They've shown they're defense first, and Cody is a very good defensive player. He'd play LF, and would put up a lot better offense then Endy Chavez (as it'll likely be his again next season) and Ryan Langerhans, while not being much worse defensively.

Baseball America's top 10 | John Sickel's top 20

 

Oakland A's: They have a good amount of OFers, but only Davis can play CF like Cody and Cody is vastly supperior on offense.

Baseball America's top 10 | John Sickel's top 20

 

A couple other fits would be San Deigo and Cleveland but both seem to have given up not just on this year but next year aswell. The Twins could also be a fit, but that would involve them giving up on both Gomez and Young, which is unlikely.

 

And what are the Marlins needs?

 

3rd baseman: Currently Chris Coghlan, Emilio Bonifacio, and possibly Gaby Sanchez are the only ML-ready 3b options. We need a real 3rd baseman badly.

ML-ready starting pitcher: Anibal Sanchez is injured again, Andrew Miller is struggling again. With guys such as John Koronka, Graham Taylor, and Hayden Penn getting starts, the need screams badly.

And possibly catcher. Although Baker has done a nice job, fact remains he's aenemic against LHP and has very questionable defense.

 

However, that's basically it. The Marlins are completely covered in the OF; they have Maybin for CF and Stanton for RF, and something should emerge out of Cousins/Carroll/Petersen/Raynor/et al for LF. There's also the possibility of Logan Morrison moving to LF if Gaby Sanchez pushes him. Which, then moving to first base, there's Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison. You also have to look at the fact that with the current market, FA LF/1B are very cheap. At second base, the Marlins have both Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio. SS there's a guy by the name of Hanley Ramirez, and the bullpen is loaded with young cost controlled guys aswell as several projectable bullpen arms in the upper minors.

 

And out of the teams above, none of them really have an attainable ML ready good 3B option. So the focus on Cody will probably be pitching. And there's just too many interesting names to name for that.

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And Vernon Well has probably the worst contract in the history of the game

 

 

Say hello to Barry Zito

 

Barry Zito is atleast a servicable pitcher.

 

You can't say the same about Vernon Wells as a CFer

 

When your production level is on par with Willy Taveras, you have issues.

 

And when you're paid 23m to do that, your team has major issues.

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Is it just me, because when I look at the careers of Cody Ross and Vernon Wells, they seem close to identical (obviously Wells has sustained his numbers over a longer period of time).

 

 

Vernon Wells last 3 years: -36.5 UZR

Vernon Wells last 3 years: .748 OPS

Cody Ross last 3 years: .845 OPS

 

Just because Wells was awesome from 2001-2006 doesn't mean he's awesome now. If what somebody did in 2001 made a difference on todays value Luis Gonzalez would be starting somewhere.

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I have to disagree with the no 3B out there. What about Scott Rolen?

 

 

Rolen is available, but they would have zero interest in Cody Ross with the packed outfield they've got.

 

 

And the Marlins have no interest in Scott Rolen's contract...

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Jorge Cantu is my third baseman. He's been great at first for sure, but I think he'll do fine at third and I will be happy to see Bonafacio ride the bench as a utility player. With Adrian Gonzalez about to take over at first, we want to keep Cantu's bat in the lineup.

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Wells was one of those guys who was huge here, he and Rios, neverending chatter on MB>com about trading for him years ago but as NNy that it never happened was a good thing.

 

As for Ross I can't imagine them trading him unless there's a big upgrade coming back in another move, that is if you believe the Fish are contending and it's hard to see them not, at least for the foreseeable future. We can kill two birds with one stone this weekend with the Cubs coming to town.

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Wells was one of those guys who was huge here, he and Rios, neverending chatter on MB>com about trading for him years ago but as NNy that it never happened was a good thing.

 

As for Ross I can't imagine them trading him unless there's a big upgrade coming back in another move, that is if you believe the Fish are contending and it's hard to see them not, at least for the foreseeable future. We can kill two birds with one stone this weekend with the Cubs coming to town.

 

 

Rios is still really cool but I don't think anyone could have seen the Wells drop off coming. The guy was one of the better CFers in baseball and then just fell off of a cliff both offensively and defensively, and that was in his prime years.

 

Also yeah no way you trade him if you still want to win this year, but I do think he gets traded in the offseason and this applies there as well, just different trade targets.

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