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Marlins Hot After Penny


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Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that the Marlins are "among the most serious suitors" for Brad Penny'sservices in the wake of Penny's release from the Red Sox this week.Penny is apparently set to clear release waivers sometime soon.

 

It looks like a decision will come soon. Morosi believes that thefinalization of the move will probably be predicated on how well theFish play against the Padres this weekend, and says that winning thisseries could justify a Penny addition. Morosi also says that theRockies, while still looking for starting pitching, aren't in themarket for Penny.

 

When Penny departed the Marlins for the Dodgersin 2004 in a trade he was in top form, having put up a 3.15 ERA and105/39 K/BB ratio in 131 innings that season. He's only matched thatbrilliance in one season since, but a move to the NL certainly can'thurt.

 

 

 

 

PLEASE GET HIM, PLEASE!

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Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that the Marlins are "among the most serious suitors" for Brad Penny'sservices in the wake of Penny's release from the Red Sox this week.Penny is apparently set to clear release waivers sometime soon.

 

It looks like a decision will come soon. Morosi believes that the finalization of the move will probably be predicated on how well the Fish play against the Padres this weekend, and says that winning thisseries could justify a Penny addition. Morosi also says that theRockies, while still looking for starting pitching, aren't in themarket for Penny.

 

When Penny departed the Marlins for the Dodgersin 2004 in a trade he was in top form, having put up a 3.15 ERA and105/39 K/BB ratio in 131 innings that season. He's only matched thatbrilliance in one season since, but a move to the NL certainly can'thurt.

 

 

 

 

PLEASE GET HIM, PLEASE!

 

 

 

:| :| :| No Penny for us...

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i know he not playing well but look at end of roation we dont have good 4,5 in roation right now you wont be able find good pitcher unless you want gave alot marlins donot want to do that

 

 

And look how much a difference a change to the NL made for John Smoltz.

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Penny has been better in '09 than his ERA suggests. Here are some of the reasons why.

 

1.His TRA is 5.23, just a shade under league average. His TRA+ is at 98 (100 is average).

2.His flyball% is higher than it's ever been in his career. Playing in a park like fenway, that's not good. However, playing in LandShark, he shouldn't have too much to worry about.

3.His BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) is higher than it's ever been this year, which shows that he has been a victim of bad luck.

4.his BB/9 numbers are actually fairly low compared to his numbers from 07-08. Again, alot of those walks have scored because he's been a victim of bad luck.

5.His K/9 is actually higher than in 07 or 08

 

brad penny > Rick VandenHurk, Sean West, Chris Volstad, or Andrew Miller

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Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that the Marlins are "among the most serious suitors" for Brad Penny'sservices in the wake of Penny's release from the Red Sox this week.Penny is apparently set to clear release waivers sometime soon.

 

It looks like a decision will come soon. Morosi believes that thefinalization of the move will probably be predicated on how well theFish play against the Padres this weekend, and says that winning thisseries could justify a Penny addition. Morosi also says that theRockies, while still looking for starting pitching, aren't in themarket for Penny.

 

When Penny departed the Marlins for the Dodgersin 2004 in a trade he was in top form, having put up a 3.15 ERA and105/39 K/BB ratio in 131 innings that season. He's only matched thatbrilliance in one season since, but a move to the NL certainly can'thurt.

 

 

 

 

PLEASE GET HIM, PLEASE!

 

 

 

 

you know, Ive never understood that line of waiting to see how well we play first before making an addition... I mean, i cant be the only one who realizes that... if we play poorly, doesnt that mean we NEED Penny more than if we play wonderfully? If we were to sweep, rout and shutout the Padres with 3 quality starts from our pitchers... wouldnt that mean we had a consistent rotation and didnt exactly NEED Penny? I'm just sayin... I dont think we should bank on the Padres series to decide if we need Penny. I think we need to realize that the playoffs are still attainable IF we get a little extra boost of consistency... and to me, THAT is reason in itself to justify adding Penny (or any other upgrade for that matter).

 

Am I alone in this thinking?

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Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that the Marlins are "among the most serious suitors" for Brad Penny'sservices in the wake of Penny's release from the Red Sox this week.Penny is apparently set to clear release waivers sometime soon.

 

It looks like a decision will come soon. Morosi believes that thefinalization of the move will probably be predicated on how well theFish play against the Padres this weekend, and says that winning thisseries could justify a Penny addition. Morosi also says that theRockies, while still looking for starting pitching, aren't in themarket for Penny.

 

When Penny departed the Marlins for the Dodgersin 2004 in a trade he was in top form, having put up a 3.15 ERA and105/39 K/BB ratio in 131 innings that season. He's only matched thatbrilliance in one season since, but a move to the NL certainly can'thurt.

 

 

 

 

PLEASE GET HIM, PLEASE!

 

 

 

 

you know, Ive never understood that line of waiting to see how well we play first before making an addition... I mean, i cant be the only one who realizes that... if we play poorly, doesnt that mean we NEED Penny more than if we play wonderfully? If we were to sweep, rout and shutout the Padres with 3 quality starts from our pitchers... wouldnt that mean we had a consistent rotation and didnt exactly NEED Penny? I'm just sayin... I dont think we should bank on the Padres series to decide if we need Penny. I think we need to realize that the playoffs are still attainable IF we get a little extra boost of consistency... and to me, THAT is reason in itself to justify adding Penny (or any other upgrade for that matter).

 

Am I alone in this thinking?

 

 

Well, the thinking is that if we lose the next 2, we might just definitely not be contenders anymore.

4.5 out is a tricky place to be in. It's like you're still in it, but you're a couple of losses away from being out of the picture. The Marlins are like a bubble team at this point, in the playoff picture.

 

I'm guessing that's the thinking with that.

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Just as a reminder, yes I've made the point before but if you're counting on Land Shark Stadium being Penny's salvation take a look at our schedule for Sept first. There's 19 or so road games (looking out the window I wonder if we're playing two tomorrow) from September 1st on.

 

What Penny brings to the table is experience and apparent good health, beyond that he could be one of a dozen guys who have moved in the last 30 days and will give us (if he winds up here) some good outings and some not so good. I think drawing any comparison to Smoltz is a mistake in that the latter is much more of a cerebral pitcher and from what little (admittedly) I've seen of Penny this year he's still looking at the radar to see how hard he's humping it up there.

 

We need arms, I would welcome Penny as one. But I'm not expecting more than what you'd expect from any back of the rotation guy. Wish him the best, a total transformation, a couple of weeks before the league catches up to him, but if he gets a W in half the games he starts it will be a helluva good move.

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Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that the Marlins are "among the most serious suitors" for Brad Penny'sservices in the wake of Penny's release from the Red Sox this week.Penny is apparently set to clear release waivers sometime soon.

 

It looks like a decision will come soon. Morosi believes that thefinalization of the move will probably be predicated on how well theFish play against the Padres this weekend, and says that winning thisseries could justify a Penny addition. Morosi also says that theRockies, while still looking for starting pitching, aren't in themarket for Penny.

 

When Penny departed the Marlins for the Dodgersin 2004 in a trade he was in top form, having put up a 3.15 ERA and105/39 K/BB ratio in 131 innings that season. He's only matched thatbrilliance in one season since, but a move to the NL certainly can'thurt.

 

 

 

 

PLEASE GET HIM, PLEASE!

 

 

 

 

you know, Ive never understood that line of waiting to see how well we play first before making an addition... I mean, i cant be the only one who realizes that... if we play poorly, doesnt that mean we NEED Penny more than if we play wonderfully? If we were to sweep, rout and shutout the Padres with 3 quality starts from our pitchers... wouldnt that mean we had a consistent rotation and didnt exactly NEED Penny? I'm just sayin... I dont think we should bank on the Padres series to decide if we need Penny. I think we need to realize that the playoffs are still attainable IF we get a little extra boost of consistency... and to me, THAT is reason in itself to justify adding Penny (or any other upgrade for that matter).

 

Am I alone in this thinking?

 

 

Well, the thinking is that if we lose the next 2, we might just definitely not be contenders anymore.

4.5 out is a tricky place to be in. It's like you're still in it, but you're a couple of losses away from being out of the picture. The Marlins are like a bubble team at this point, in the playoff picture.

 

I'm guessing that's the thinking with that.

 

 

Right, and I agree with you too.. but couldnt we also make the argument that bringing in Penny might ensure us a few extra wins? Thus, wouldnt getting Penny be justified before waiting to see if we can win the Padres series?

 

With my original post, I just feel that this is the equivalent of having a car with only 3 tires and then saying "let's see if we can make it down the road before we decide to buy that fourth tire." Isnt that counterproductive? Isnt it obvious that the fourth tire will be an upgrade worth making? And if we wait for "down the road", maybe the car might not make it down the road and then we're stuck in a ditch and u can look back and say "damn, we OBVIOUSLY would have made it down the road if we got that fourth tire earlier"

 

Strange analogy but I thik it gets my point across. I'm not crazy, doesnt anyone agree with me here?

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Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that the Marlins are "among the most serious suitors" for Brad Penny'sservices in the wake of Penny's release from the Red Sox this week.Penny is apparently set to clear release waivers sometime soon.

 

It looks like a decision will come soon. Morosi believes that thefinalization of the move will probably be predicated on how well theFish play against the Padres this weekend, and says that winning thisseries could justify a Penny addition. Morosi also says that theRockies, while still looking for starting pitching, aren't in themarket for Penny.

 

When Penny departed the Marlins for the Dodgersin 2004 in a trade he was in top form, having put up a 3.15 ERA and105/39 K/BB ratio in 131 innings that season. He's only matched thatbrilliance in one season since, but a move to the NL certainly can'thurt.

 

 

 

 

PLEASE GET HIM, PLEASE!

 

 

 

 

you know, Ive never understood that line of waiting to see how well we play first before making an addition... I mean, i cant be the only one who realizes that... if we play poorly, doesnt that mean we NEED Penny more than if we play wonderfully? If we were to sweep, rout and shutout the Padres with 3 quality starts from our pitchers... wouldnt that mean we had a consistent rotation and didnt exactly NEED Penny? I'm just sayin... I dont think we should bank on the Padres series to decide if we need Penny. I think we need to realize that the playoffs are still attainable IF we get a little extra boost of consistency... and to me, THAT is reason in itself to justify adding Penny (or any other upgrade for that matter).

 

Am I alone in this thinking?

 

 

Well, the thinking is that if we lose the next 2, we might just definitely not be contenders anymore.

4.5 out is a tricky place to be in. It's like you're still in it, but you're a couple of losses away from being out of the picture. The Marlins are like a bubble team at this point, in the playoff picture.

 

I'm guessing that's the thinking with that.

 

 

Right, and I agree with you too.. but couldnt we also make the argument that bringing in Penny might ensure us a few extra wins? Thus, wouldnt getting Penny be justified before waiting to see if we can win the Padres series?

 

With my original post, I just feel that this is the equivalent of having a car with only 3 tires and then saying "let's see if we can make it down the road before we decide to buy that fourth tire." Isnt that counterproductive? Isnt it obvious that the fourth tire will be an upgrade worth making? And if we wait for "down the road", maybe the car might not make it down the road and then we're stuck in a ditch and u can look back and say "damn, we OBVIOUSLY would have made it down the road if we got that fourth tire earlier"

 

Strange analogy but I thik it gets my point across. I'm not crazy, doesnt anyone agree with me here?

 

I agree with your point, although I don't like your analogy. IMO, more like a driver with a handful of laps to go in a race making a pitstop and they are deciding whether or not to replace a tire that has lost some tread with a fresh one. But in this case, the monetary amount is so tiny that if it increases our playoff chances at all in the eyes of the FO, then they should do it already.

There's also the less tangible effect of boosting team morale by a new addition and showing the willingness to go out and bring in another player (although any chance at the playoffs should alone be enough to motivate Major Leaguers).

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I think the writer is correct, because I saw an ESPN.com article saying that the Marlins (before this current series) had about a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.

 

 

Going by Pecota, we are now down to a 5% chance. 2.7% at the division, 2.4% at the wild card. http://www.baseballp...ics/ps_odds.php

 

One good news though is that before, the average wild card winner won 92 games. Now it's down to 91 games. For us to win 91 games, we need to go 24-10. COL only needs to go 19-14. SF 21-12.

 

We're still in a position that we can control our own fate, in the fact that if we go on a hot streak and COL/SF only play to their current level, we can pass them. We don't need them to lose per se, we just need them to not be hot. We're starting to get to the point where COL would need a collapse though.

 

I mean, it's captain obvious but it's all up to our rotation. Our offense is doing it's thing, our bullpen are doing their thing. Our guys have the potential to do this. It's on their shoulders now though.

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I think it's too unlikely that the Marlins make it to the postseason.

 

Going out and trading for Penny might not be worth the trouble for such a short period of time and due to the Marlins being non-contenders. Even if they got him, the rotation would still be too subpar to chase the Rockies and Giants, let alone compete against a team like Los Angeles, Philadelphia, or St. Louis in the post-season.

 

If the Marlins think they need Penny just to be a veteran innings-eater because Volstad, Sanchez, West, and sometimes Nolasco have been getting rocked and have strained the bullpen, then that might be a different story.

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I was watching ESPN today and I heard that the Yankees were interested in Penny. Would they have priority in getting him because they are in the same league? I'm not too sure on the rules.

 

 

Basically when they released him, Penny was put on Waivers. If a team claimed him, they would get his rights but they would also take on all of his contract. The waiver rules go by worst record and by league (So the team with the worse record in the AL gets first dibs, and the team with the best record in the AL gets dibs before any NL team), so the Yankees would have priority before us.

 

However, in the case for a release, especially in the case with Penny where incentives kick in, teams almost always wait for them to pass through waivers when they only have to pay them the pro-rated minimum. I believe Penny passes through waivers and become a free agent tomorrow (was released on the 26th, waivers last 3 days). So, the Yankees could still claim him and have him, but it seems unlikely.

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I think the writer is correct, because I saw an ESPN.com article saying that the Marlins (before this current series) had about a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.

 

 

Going by Pecota, we are now down to a 5% chance. 2.7% at the division, 2.4% at the wild card. http://www.baseballp...ics/ps_odds.php

 

One good news though is that before, the average wild card winner won 92 games. Now it's down to 91 games. For us to win 91 games, we need to go 24-10. COL only needs to go 19-14. SF 21-12.

 

We're still in a position that we can control our own fate, in the fact that if we go on a hot streak and COL/SF only play to their current level, we can pass them. We don't need them to lose per se, we just need them to not be hot. We're starting to get to the point where COL would need a collapse though.

 

I mean, it's captain obvious but it's all up to our rotation. Our offense is doing it's thing, our bullpen are doing their thing. Our guys have the potential to do this. It's on their shoulders now though.

 

Col has to cool down soon. They have been on freaking fire and they should die down. Hopefully we got hot like them as they cool off.

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So only winning 1 game might not qualify us for getting Penny, eh? I still hope we get him especially that Volstad got sent down.

 

 

August 24th we were 8 games back in the NL East, today 7.5 as I write this which can swing to 7 or eight by night's end, so no harm there.

 

August 24th we were 5.5 games back in the wildcard, after today's play we are 3.5 games back in the wildcard.

 

I'd say we're still in contention.

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