Jump to content

Pitching Prospect Stats + General Discussion


Nny
 Share

Recommended Posts

Same thing as last year, not 100% sure if it mlb formulas can be applied to minor leaguers like this, blah blah.

 

recap of stats: FIP, fielding indepentant pitching, takes away anything a fielder influences and just looks at the things a pitcher is soley responsible for (BB, K, and HR). xFIP tries to neutralize the HR aspect, as it's normally not possible to sustain a very low HR/FB or a very high HR/FB (unless you suck).

 

though new stat this year with tERA which will help show guys with high LD% as frauds. While pitchers aren't soley responsible to a ball after it's put in play, they are responsible for what type of ball is put in play (GB, FB, LD, IFFB), so it assigns weights to those.

 

wish the old thread was around to see what all happened to the outliers. The three I remember were Kaminiska (hit on him), Correa (hasn't pitched at all this year), and Gaby Hernandez (who still sucks).

 

anywayz. only doing guys I actually find interesting.

 

 

 

of note

 

NOLA

 

Rick Vanden Hurk-

It's the first time since he was a 19 year old in Jupiter in 2004 that he finished with less strike outs than innings pitched. It's also easily the best BB/9 of his career, which led to him post a BB/9 of 3.66 in the show after having a career MLB BB/9 of 5.45, and you take that trade off all the time. Yeah he was probably lucky with HRs but oh well, he countered it by being unlucky in the majors :lol

 

What's interesting though is, at least at the ML level, he's no throwing more balls within the strike zone. Instead, he's getting more wiffs at balls outside the strike zone. Which you can basically thank that new slider to. It's a very very good thing he throws that pitch now.

 

Tim Wood-

I'm loving him. I hated him after '08 when he didn't strike anybody out and I was like why are we protecting him but score one FO and no me. And he's performing admirably at the ML level. Yeah, his strike outs aren't too hot up here so far, but I love the control he's shown up here, combined with his ability to get GBs ergo keep down XBH/HR. If the strike outs come, he'll be good. If they don't, he's still serviceable.

 

Mobley took a big step back on K's, and while FIP still likes him, tRA really doesn't like him, and I'd almost always go with tRA. But looking like MILB journeyman really, which was really just affirmed after the whole Rule V thing last year. Penn was a lot better than I thought, Sink wasn't as bad as his ERA showed by he's still f'n bad. Buente had pretty solid numbers but with a BB/9 of 4.66 I aint that interested.

 

Jax:

 

West-At first glance of West's HR/9 you'd say he was unlucky. But he wasn't. His FB% rocketted this season and his GB% plummeted. That seemed to have corrected itself in his second stint in the majors but it's definitely something to monitor

 

Thompson was pretty damn solid but right now I'd probably say you'd be expecting around a 4.5 ERA so about a #4. Great to have in ones system but far from something that makes or breaks.

 

The main thing about AA was the BP arms. Parcell and Voss are real real f***ing awesome. 60%+ GB rates for both, high K rates for both, great control for both. Voss is especially big since he's a lefty. And Leroux finishing another great campaign. Our NOLA BP next year is gonna be stacked. Those 3, Wood, Tucker, maybe Ceda, Tank. sh*t. Now if only NOLA could build a rotation.

 

JupJup

 

Winters is seriously looking like a Volstad clone. Sanabia has been getting a lot of dap throughout the season but his numbers overall have been rather meh. Meanwhile, Jose Rosario finally found control and beat him across the board. What's the story on Jose Rose, legit or smoke? Just 23.

 

And again a ncie showing from BP arms, though not quite AA style. Jhan Marinez is just 20 and jumped from the GCL team to Jupiter. Steven Cishek (23) had a real nice season, Korpi (23) was solid. Kinda old for A+ ball but they're also college draft picks so what can ya do. Battisto is 25 but he was also called up to AA than AAA (takes all the numbers into account but most of his IP were in Jup) so the FO seems to like him. Gunderson's 24 and is the guy we got in the Kensing trade, was called up to NOLA for an appearance.

 

And while Kris Harvey got a lot of fanfare for turning into a RP, he wasn't the only 24yo former high position player draft pick to turn into an RP this season. Jon Fulton joined him, and in fact pitched better than him.

 

Greeny's Boro

 

First name that comes to attention is always gonna be Hand. Gotta love his upside, and he still logged in a solid year after his horrible first month. FIP still absolutely adores Kaminska but tRA not so much. Part of the issues is how many batters he hit (16), which FIP doesn't take into account. That's pretty surprising with the BB/9 he has. HBP doesn't go back to last year so can't say if he has a history of it. Johnny Dorn's 23 so major meh. Graham Johnson was major meh but only 19. Sandy Rosy related to Jose Rose? He's 23 so meh but he's had good peripherals for awhile now, though also not much to go on haha, 40 IP in 06 but just 9 in 07 and 08 what's the story morning glory on that?

 

To me the biggest name is Tom Koehler. Pretty old at 23 for that level but stellar year. With what Ramp had to say at the start of the year (http://floridamarlin...om-koehler.html), combined with his numbers, he's shot way up much charts.

 

And while Peter Andre had a huuuuge year (don't let his ERA in jupiter make you disbeleive, he still had outstanding peripherals), overall the BP wasn't as impressive as other stops. Despite his ERA Yecker still looks like a decent RP spec, Evans logged in a good year but at 22 he's kinda fringe age. Tood was 24 so yeah meh, Rodolfo's 23 so also kinda eh but damn that is a nice line.

 

So yeah, same story repeat repeat not much SP but damn we got some BP arms.

 

Season ending top specs?

 

For me I'd have SP probably top 10 of

 

1-Hand

2-Winters

3-Kaminska

4-Koehler

5-Jose Rose

6-Sanabia

7-Graham

8-Sandy Rosy

9-Dorn

10-Dallas

 

Maybe Elih #9 or #10 instead but shrug. Wanna see what he does in Jax before really forming an opinion on him. I probably have Hand B-, Winters C+ but maybe B-, Kammy to Sanabia or maybe Koehler C+, rest C's.

 

Nobody in short season ball for me (or recent draft picks), I want to see full season ball performance before forming an opinion. Doesn't mean you have to follow that though.

 

RP

 

1. Tucker

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Great work as usual and very interesting, but one thing with this is, you are looking 100% at base line stats and what they should have done. This is important, but we learned a big time lesson with Yusmiero Petit, Chris Mobley, and other guys through the years. Some guys just have the stuff to blow up say AA, and then start getting shelled. Saying this, I think things need to be tweaked slightly as we add the highly quantifiable (sarcasm) STUFF factor.

 

Koehler? He is 2 years older than Sanabia, was an 18th round draft pick, College Player, has had physical problems with weight before, etc etc. He had a nice year, but that is just a classic guy that needs to prove it moving up before being taken seriously. I don't think he sucks, but as for prospect status Sanabia, by all accounts, has that heavy movement fastball in the 92-93 range and that breaking ball out pitch. STUFF puts Sanabia up, and sure he's a FB pitcher which doesn't bode well as he goes up levels, but at the same time who you taking long term between the two? The younger kid with the better stuff even if the results aren't great yet. I have no problem with Hand # 1. He's young so I can take the growing pains, and sure. We can give Winters 2 for the groundball rates and hope to god he becomes Steve Traschel. But after that, Kaminska and Sanabia are a toss up. And then it's all finding a diamond in the rough. Those are our only 4 legitimate SP prospects longterm. College pitchers dominating A Ball? Over it. I'd only put those 4 SP in our top 20 overall. And this is of course ignoring the 2009 class. Basically, I'm just disagreeing with Sanabia. He is a clear top 4 here to me. The college guys are who they are. I don't know if we're going to see marked improvement from them if they aren't already awesome. The odds are just stacked against it. As for the relievers, Parcell has to drop because of the STUFF, and Cishek needs to go up. Parcell is a dominant offspeed guy, and doesn't have that fastball to pump people with. Cishek can get it up there to the mid 90s. Moving forward, Parcell's numbers are obviously phenomenal but how many of these guys slow down immensely when they've simply relied on their control and 'secondary' pitches? I know this is semantics with our 2nd tier RP prospects, but I'm just saying.

 

But overall, I like the really young Hand/Sanabia/Kaminska/James/Berglund depth brewing in A Ball. God I hope Winters can even give us a sub 5 era over serious innings in the bigs. That would be enormous depth moving forward. And the relievers, including MLB and the minors, we easily have a 15-18 group of them that have big league potential (I mean, we could add Tank, Owens, and some others to this list as well) and it's really going to show moving forward. Only question is, do you see the ACE reliever in there? I'm not sure I do. We're going to need that eventually.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's to replenishing some frontline SP depth when we trade Uggla/Cantu/Hermida/Amezaga/Nunez/etc.

 

Here's to this big time. If they can get 1 good SP prospect for Uggla, and just get projectable relievers with the others, I consider it a huge success. We'd be looking great in two years once the AA bats and system-wide relievers graduate to the bigs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great work as usual and very interesting, but one thing with this is, you are looking 100% at base line stats and what they should have done. This is important, but we learned a big time lesson with Yusmiero Petit, Chris Mobley, and other guys through the years. Some guys just have the stuff to blow up say AA, and then start getting shelled. Saying this, I think things need to be tweaked slightly as we add the highly quantifiable (sarcasm) STUFF factor.

 

Koehler? He is 2 years older than Sanabia, was an 18th round draft pick, College Player, has had physical problems with weight before, etc etc. He had a nice year, but that is just a classic guy that needs to prove it moving up before being taken seriously. I don't think he sucks, but as for prospect status Sanabia, by all accounts, has that heavy movement fastball in the 92-93 range and that breaking ball out pitch. STUFF puts Sanabia up, and sure he's a FB pitcher which doesn't bode well as he goes up levels, but at the same time who you taking long term between the two? The younger kid with the better stuff even if the results aren't great yet. I have no problem with Hand # 1. He's young so I can take the growing pains, and sure. We can give Winters 2 for the groundball rates and hope to god he becomes Steve Traschel. But after that, Kaminska and Sanabia are a toss up. And then it's all finding a diamond in the rough. Those are our only 4 legitimate SP prospects longterm. College pitchers dominating A Ball? Over it. I'd only put those 4 SP in our top 20 overall. And this is of course ignoring the 2009 class. Basically, I'm just disagreeing with Sanabia. He is a clear top 4 here to me. The college guys are who they are. I don't know if we're going to see marked improvement from them if they aren't already awesome. The odds are just stacked against it. As for the relievers, Parcell has to drop because of the STUFF, and Cishek needs to go up. Parcell is a dominant offspeed guy, and doesn't have that fastball to pump people with. Cishek can get it up there to the mid 90s. Moving forward, Parcell's numbers are obviously phenomenal but how many of these guys slow down immensely when they've simply relied on their control and 'secondary' pitches? I know this is semantics with our 2nd tier RP prospects, but I'm just saying.

 

But overall, I like the really young Hand/Sanabia/Kaminska/James/Berglund depth brewing in A Ball. God I hope Winters can even give us a sub 5 era over serious innings in the bigs. That would be enormous depth moving forward. And the relievers, including MLB and the minors, we easily have a 15-18 group of them that have big league potential (I mean, we could add Tank, Owens, and some others to this list as well) and it's really going to show moving forward. Only question is, do you see the ACE reliever in there? I'm not sure I do. We're going to need that eventually.

 

 

I don't think it really maters how you slice and dice anyone behind Hand (I think Winters should be #2 for the sole fact of what league he's in)

 

And as for Sanabia, I mean, what's changed between this year and last year for Sanabia that now his stock went up so much? The only thing that has gotten better is his ERA. His FB rates sky rocketed. His K's plummeted. He's walking more guys. He gave up less HRs sure but we're talking about going from Greensboro to Jupiter, that's not actually an accomplishment. So what changed that now he's a great SP prospect where as before he was a sleeper? A lucky BABIP, that's it. And it's not like you can say "oh he's pitching better so he's not getting hit as hard so his BABIP is lower." I mean, sure, maybe. But the numbers don't say that. He's LD% is up from last year (16% last year, 19% this year), showing that he's actually getting hit harder this year, plus then add in all the FBs. He's still a sleeper in my mind, since he's still just "stuff".

 

People have raved all year of how he's finally showed up. But all he did was take steps backwards.

 

And the stuff argument doesn't work against Koehler. Everything about him has been "good stuff, weight problems". A Petite of the system would be Elih Villuneva, not Koehler. Neither are impressive prospect but I'd probably take Koehler at the moment, with what information is known.

 

I'm more interested in the stories behind the Super Rosario Brotehrs though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know if it's necessarily his stock going up, but with the lack of SP depth everywhere else and his age I think he slots up over the college guys. That's all. I agree completely he is a sleeper prospect, a C one at the moment, so my mistake if you think I'm arguing this guy is slotting as a future 4 right now, but I wouldn't necessarily call this year a step back. Sure it's Jupiter, and that .266 BABIP is eating those extra flyballs, but the kids young. And has the "stuff." The beauty of the minors is, we don't know if the coaches are telling him to try and gets out with his 'developing changeup,' which is causing more line drives, or if there is other tweaking going on with mechanics or anything else. As a side note, I'm convinced that's what was going on with West in AA this year. There's no other explanation for the shellings he was getting. But, I'd like to see progression and that he's getting it faster, but the thing is as long as the stats don't take horrific jumps, it's not a big deal until we see a 2-3 year pattern of relative failure or no progression. Yes, the dip in GB is a red flag, maybe even a significant one, but he still had a good year overall as a 20 year old in A+. He also slowed down a lot in the 2nd half so who knows if conditioning is even an issue. When it comes to this fringe MLB prospects, I'm going with the stuff/upside over turning into another Badenhop or whoever. Developing Badenhops are cool as hell, but I'd cut 5 Badenhops in AAA to find that one above average arm elsewhere out of nowhere. That's where system depth is. And I think we have a lot of it with these arms. It'll be interesting to see the Jupiter staff move to Jax and see whose for real and whose the stadium.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with basically all you're saying, I guess it's just a disagreement of what exactly Koehler's "stuff" is. From what I've read, you're underselling it. From what you've read/heard/thought/whatever, you think I'm overselling it. Like you say, we just really don't know much with the position we're in now lol, which is why I made sure to postface with "with what information is known."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share



×
×
  • Create New...