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2010 Top of Lineup


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What do you guys predict/prefer at the top of the lineup next year - Coghlan/Maybin or Maybin/Coghlan?

 

Personally I would prefer to see Coghlan/Maybin as we have done regularly for the past couple of weeks. The reason for this is I believe Coghlan is the more mature and developed hitter at this level as he has clearly shown, and by putting Maybin 2nd, in front of Hanley, he should see some better pitches to hit as teams wouldn't want to run the risk of walking him and giving Hanley another guy on base to drive in.

 

However on the contrary, Maybin could be seen as a more prototypical base stealer and maybe this fact nets him the leadoff spot.

 

Thoughts?

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I would prefer to keep seeing Coghlan leading off, but if Maybin can provide some consistency in the leadoff spot with both getting on base AND stealing bases then I have no problem whatsoever with Maybin/Coghlan. I could see Cogs thriving really well in the 2 spot.

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The ideal would be Maybin and CC second because he's a lefty but his bat skills are better than Maybin and he has a more patient approach at the plate. But Maybin doesn't get on base enough to force that hole in the right side of the infield. I think Maybin 2nd would jump start his career since I do believe he would see better pitches but he still has to perform.

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Pro's of #1 Maybin, #2 Coghlan:

 

-It puts the faster man first. Maybin has 20-30+ SB in him while Coghlan is 10-20+. Not only that, but Maybin is a better base runner outside of stolen bases. For instance, this season Coghlan was worth 1.44932 runs thanks to his base running in the 210 times he was on base.

 

Maybin, his his career, has been worth 2.7297 runs in only 87 times on base. Meaning that over the same amount as Coghlan, he'd be worth 6.6 runs. Then tack on SB and that becomes even more.

 

-Coghlan is the better handness for the line up position. He gets a hole on the right side from Maybin being on first, he blocks the catcher if maybin tries to steal, so on, so forth. It also splits up our righty/lefty at the top of the line up, giving us rhb/lhb/rhb 1-2-3 with Hanley.

 

-Coghlan has better bat control for the line up position. Maybin is going to strike out more, but if nobody is on base, it's no different from a normal out. But contact is more important when somebody is on base, so you want the person with better contact hitting #2.

 

-Coghlan hits less ground balls than Maybin does. This lowers the chance of a double play. Though, you could argue that the difference isn't much, and that Maybin's speed will allow him to beat out more potential double plays, making it basically break even and not being a factor.

 

-If you believe Maybin is the better hitter, it gives him more PA over a season (albeit only about 20)

 

Pros of #1 Coghlan, #2 Maybin:

 

-Coghlan will probably have the higher OBP going forward. While it shouldn't be this high, as Coghlan isn't going to continue hitting for an average over .320, it should still sit around the .370 range. In order for Maybin to get that high, he'd have to hit around .300. Maybin will probably be more around .350.

 

-Maybin has more power. Coghlan has a minor league ISO of .153. Maybin's is .171. Ontop of which, Maybin younger than Coghlan, meaning you have more room to project more power in Maybin. Maybin also showed more power in the majors this season than CC did, posting a .159 ISO compared to Coghlan's .139 ISO.

 

-If you believe CC is the better hitter, it gives him more PA over a season (albeit only about 20)

 

Anything I miss?

 

I'd probably go Maybin #1, CC #2 but I don't think it'll make much of a difference at all

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Pro's of #1 Maybin, #2 Coghlan:

 

-It puts the faster man first. Maybin has 20-30+ SB in him while Coghlan is 10-20+. Not only that, but Maybin is a better base runner outside of stolen bases. For instance, this season Coghlan was worth 1.44932 runs thanks to his base running in the 210 times he was on base.

 

Maybin, his his career, has been worth 2.7297 runs in only 87 times on base. Meaning that over the same amount as Coghlan, he'd be worth 6.6 runs. Then tack on SB and that becomes even more.

 

-Coghlan is the better handness for the line up position. He gets a hole on the right side from Maybin being on first, he blocks the catcher if maybin tries to steal, so on, so forth. It also splits up our righty/lefty at the top of the line up, giving us rhb/lhb/rhb 1-2-3 with Hanley.

 

-Coghlan has better bat control for the line up position. Maybin is going to strike out more, but if nobody is on base, it's no different from a normal out. But contact is more important when somebody is on base, so you want the person with better contact hitting #2.

 

-Coghlan hits less ground balls than Maybin does. This lowers the chance of a double play. Though, you could argue that the difference isn't much, and that Maybin's speed will allow him to beat out more potential double plays, making it basically break even and not being a factor.

 

-If you believe Maybin is the better hitter, it gives him more PA over a season (albeit only about 20)

 

Pros of #1 Coghlan, #2 Maybin:

 

-Coghlan will probably have the higher OBP going forward. While it shouldn't be this high, as Coghlan isn't going to continue hitting for an average over .320, it should still sit around the .370 range. In order for Maybin to get that high, he'd have to hit around .300. Maybin will probably be more around .350.

 

-Maybin has more power. Coghlan has a minor league ISO of .153. Maybin's is .171. Ontop of which, Maybin younger than Coghlan, meaning you have more room to project more power in Maybin. Maybin also showed more power in the majors this season than CC did, posting a .159 ISO compared to Coghlan's .139 ISO.

 

-If you believe CC is the better hitter, it gives him more PA over a season (albeit only about 20)

 

Anything I miss?

 

I'd probably go Maybin #1, CC #2 but I don't think it'll make much of a difference at all

 

I bolded why I would argue Maybin-Coghlan 1-2.

 

And having Hanley behind you batting # 2 is only going to help whoever gets that. And maybe you'd argue it's better to put Maybin 1st as people may not want to deal with Coghlan, and Coghlan's plate discipline and contact will only improve getting better pitches in front of Hanley. Coghlan's whiffs half the time will really pay dividends here, even if its the "productive out" which really isn't quantifiable. I don't see Coghlan's OBP being a definitive factor here unless he is out OBPing Maybin by like 40.

 

I want them 1-2, and also thinking slightly longterm because I want to do this long haul

 

R Maybin CF

L Coghlan 2B

R Hanley SS

L Morrison 1B

R Stanton LF

L Baker/Skipworth C

R Dominguez 3B

L Cousins RF

 

That would be beyond awesome. Groom them to their lineup spots now and just leave them alone.

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So you basically anticipate Uggla, Cantu and Ross will all be gone by the start of 2010

 

Where did I say that? I like to think next year is this

 

R Maybin CF

L Coghlan 2B/LF

R Hanley SS

R Cantu 3B

L Baker C

R Ross RF

R G. Sanchez 1B

R Carroll LF / S Bonifacio 2B

 

With a strong veteran 1B/LF, preferably a lefty. But I don't know if we will go to a $40-42 million payroll.

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I'm still holding out a little hope that Nick Johnson might be back.

 

 

 

As much as I love the .400+ .OBP, I hope not.

Why?

 

I'd rather have Johnson than I would Cantu. Uggla will definitely be gone. If he signs for a reasonable amount, he will fill a hole and will do a damn good job at adding some plate discipline to the line-up.

 

If the Marlins had actually given Gaby Sanchez some consistent ML at bats this season, then I might feel differently.

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So you basically anticipate Uggla, Cantu and Ross will all be gone by the start of 2010

 

Where did I say that? I like to think next year is this

 

R Maybin CF

L Coghlan 2B/LF

R Hanley SS

R Cantu 3B

L Baker C

R Ross RF

R G. Sanchez 1B

R Carroll LF / S Bonifacio 2B

 

With a strong veteran 1B/LF, preferably a lefty. But I don't know if we will go to a $40-42 million payroll.

Why do you figure that Carroll should be in LF and Ross in RF?

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I know it is highly unlikely that both Johnson and Cantu will stay but let's imagine they did. NJ when healthy is a perfect fit for the #2 spot in the lineup, followed by Hanley and Cantu. However the combo of Coghlan and Maybin projects to be best for the team at the top of the order.

 

So if we did keep NJ (aswell as Cantu) would he be the #2 hitter and Coghlan leads off with Maybin down the order (no doubt Fredi puts him 8th) or would we Johnson slide down a few places with the speedy duo 1-2. Or maybe even a different combination with Maybin top, NJ 2nd and Coghlan elsewhere?

 

I know this is highly theoretical as NJ will be probably leaving but still a potentially interesting point of discussion.

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I'm still holding out a little hope that Nick Johnson might be back.

 

 

 

As much as I love the .400+ .OBP, I hope not.

Why?

 

I'd rather have Johnson than I would Cantu. Uggla will definitely be gone. If he signs for a reasonable amount, he will fill a hole and will do a damn good job at adding some plate discipline to the line-up.

 

If the Marlins had actually given Gaby Sanchez some consistent ML at bats this season, then I might feel differently.

 

 

Considering the Marlins penny-pinching budget, I'd like to know that the guys we're paying have a good chance of staying healthy. Nick Johnson has never proven he can do that, over the course of a year.

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I would prefer to keep seeing Coghlan leading off, but if Maybin can provide some consistency in the leadoff spot with both getting on base AND stealing bases then I have no problem whatsoever with Maybin/Coghlan. I could see Cogs thriving really well in the 2 spot.

 

Seconding this. I would keep Coghlan there until Maybin picks it up.

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It's a tough call because you wan't the prototypical leadoff man to be able to steal at least 30 bases which would put Maybin up there but he has had his struggles getting on base while Coghlan gets on base what seems to be at least twice every game.

 

To start of the year I would go Maybin, Coghlan and if Cam has his problems then you can put C.C. at the 1 spot.

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