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Sickel's list is out


Nny
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1) Mike Stanton, OF, Grade A-: The strikeouts are worrisome, yes, but he's only 20 years old and hit 16 homers in half-a-season of Double-A ball. Upside: 40-homer production for years. Downside: he loses the strike zone and ends up like Jeff Francoeur.

 

2) Logan Morrison, 1B, Grade A-. Borderline B+. I still love this guy. Tremendous improvement with his strike zone judgment stands out, and power slippage is likely attributable to hand injury. I might end up dropping him to B+ but haven't decided yet.

 

3) Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B. Defensive raves continue, but the bat didn't look as good in the more difficult Florida State League. Will struggle if rushed, they need to give him 900 at-bats in the upper minors.

 

4) Chad James, LHP, Grade B: Has B+/A- potential but would like to see some professional data first.

 

5) Ryan Tucker, RHP, Grade B: Gets an injury mulligan and the same grade as last year. I love his stuff, still worry about command. Downgrade to B- considered, but at least it was a knee injury and not an elbow or shoulder.

 

6) Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Grade C+: Age 26 limits his upside, but should be a solid hitter to hold down first base until Morrison is ready.

 

7) Scott Cousins, OF, Grade C+: Tools are underrated, does a lot of things well, plate discipline is sketchy however. Could be perfect fourth outfielder.

 

8) Bryan Petersen, OF, Grade C+: Similar to Cousins, not as athletic but with better plate discipline.

 

9) Kyle Skipworth, C, Grade C+: Borderline C. VERY difficult to grade. His performance has been horrible, but he was so good in high school and at age 20 it is too soon to give up on him. However, one more season like this one and people will be heading to the exits.

 

10) Jake Smolinski, 3B-2B, Grade C: Borderline C+. This bat has considerable potential, however he is apparently injury-prone and still looking for a position.

 

11) Jhan Marinez, RHP, Grade C: borderline C+. Excellent arm, could dominate in the pen if command comes around.

 

12) Issac Galloway, OF, Grade C: Great tools, no performance yet.

 

13) Brad Hand, LHP, Grade C: Pitched better in second half, may need more time as a cold-weather high school guy.

 

14) Garrett Parcell, RHP, Grade C: Could contribute in the bullpen quite soon if he proves durability.

 

15) Chris Leroux, RHP, Grade C: Another possible middle relief arm.

 

16) Steve Cishek, RHP, Grade C: Like Parcell and Leroux, he can help in the pen.

 

17) Arquimedes Caminero, RHP, Grade C: Powerful Dominican bullpen arm hit 98 in the New York-Penn League but has control issues.

 

18) Ramon Benjamin, LHP: Another NY-P pitcher with plus stuff but command issues.

 

19) Marcell Ozuna, OF, Grade C: Big numbers in the Gulf Coast League from a potential power hitter, but need more data from higher levels.

 

20) Tom Koehler, RHP, Grade C: Looks like a potential inning-eater type.

 

OTHERS (Grade C): Pete Andrelczyk, RHP; Jay Buente, RHP; Marquis Cooper, OF; Rodolfo Encarnacion, RHP; Josh Hodges, RHP; Dan Jennings, LHP; Kyle Jensen, OF: Jorge Jimenez, 3B; Graham Johnson, RHP; Kyle Kaminska, RHP; Brent Keys, OF; Jai Miller, OF; Edgar Olmos, LHP; Curtis Petersen, RHP; A.J. Ramos, RHP; Graham Taylor, RHP; Elih Villanueva, RHP; Jay Voss, LHP.

 

This system doesn't have as much depth as I thought it did.

 

Beginning with the hitters, you have Mike Stanton, who has the tools to be a superstar but also has the potential to crash and burn badly if he's rushed too fast. He needs another 300 at-bats in Double-A, and 400 in Triple-A, before being pushed to the majors. He has All-Star upside, but he still has flaws in his game that could prevent his talent from fully coming through if he's not handled properly.

 

Morrison may be a notch overrated at A- and I'm going to sleep on that grade. Dominguez should be a solid regular although I'm doubt at this point he'll hit enough to be a genuine star. Sanchez, Cousins, and Petersen all look like they could be useful role players, but none of them project as stars. I don't know what the hell to make of Skipworth at this point. After that there are some tools guys but no one I'm really wild about, though Smolinski could surprise if he can stay healthy.

 

The pitching features Chad James as the headliner, a possible number two starter if he reaches his ceiling. After that it thins out fast. There are a large number of potential bullpen arms, beginning with future closer Ryan Tucker and a boatload of potential setup men with good arms. But other than maybe Brad Hand, I don't see a lot of potential starting pitchers on the horizon.

 

Although things look thin with this current list, some of the Grade Cs have the potential to improve, and they graduated considerable talent to the majors last year. They've recharged before and they'll do so again. It will be interesting to see what approach they take in the '10 draft, and if the resolution of the stadium situation opens the pocketbook for player development a bit more.

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I think the drop in Dominguez is dumb and is a dumb reasoning which I've already discussed before.

 

Smolinski a C is massive huh.

 

And I have to imagine Jose Ceda not being there is an oversight that will be corrected, especially with reports that he'll be ready by ST.

 

Other than that, it's nothing new.

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Yeh the pitching may be a bit thin, but in terms of the batters, I view it like this - in a few years we could have Morrison, Coghlan, Hanley, Dominguez, Maybin and Stanton in our lineup. Having 6 of the 8 batters with a realistic confidence that they will make up our lineup is pretty good.

 

 

But... but... you forgot Bonifacio!

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I have seen nothing from Smolinski so far. Peterson has surpassed Cousin an I don't think it's even close. The reasoning for dropping Morrison is flawed he will get his power back, it was a wrist injury for pete sake, Morrison is amazing to have done as well as he did this season. His comeback from the injury was lightspeed beyond what was originally predicted. He just compensated power by spraying the ball all over the field. BTW he was still getting plenty of extra-bases. Tucker maybe our closer by the end of the season. I wanna know more about that dominican kid any other links guys?

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I must say our system is worryingly thin on SP prospects, compared to a few years ago.

 

 

Well, we also graduated two of them (Volstad and West). We also have several guys in the very low minors who have break out potential.

 

Like Schnellders said, it's about the hitting. Our 2012 line up will probably look something like

 

C-Baker

1B-Logan

2B-Coghlan

3B-Dominguez

SS-Hanley

RF-Stanton

CF-Maybin

LF-Petersen/Cousins/the next cody ross/ect, finding a competent LFer is one of the easiest things to do

 

only 2 of the above will be making over the minimum (Baker and Hanley), possibly 3 depending on LF.

 

This is HUGE. 2012 is our new stadium, let's say we're rocking a 55 mil payroll. We're gonna be spending about 22.5 mil on our 13 position players. That leaves 32.5 for pitchers. We have so much cost controlled BP depth at the majors and in the minors our BP is also going to be real cheap. You then have two rotation spots locked up with Volstad and West, another should be with JJ. That then gives us ability to be looking at things like signing Nolasco or FAs or whatever.

 

And that's also not including the fact we should be targeting pitching in the trades of Uggla, Cantu, Cody, ect.

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This is HUGE. 2012 is our new stadium, let's say we're rocking a 55 mil payroll. We're gonna be spending about 22.5 mil on our 13 position players. That leaves 32.5 for pitchers. We have so much cost controlled BP depth at the majors and in the minors our BP is also going to be real cheap. You then have two rotation spots locked up with Volstad and West, another should be with JJ. That then gives us ability to be looking at things like signing Nolasco or FAs or whatever.

 

oooOOOOOooohhhh! i like the sound of all of this. ps, i read frisario write that the team's gonna have a "mid range payroll" when they move to the new stadium. the middle of the pack payroll last season was 80mil. :mis2

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This is HUGE. 2012 is our new stadium, let's say we're rocking a 55 mil payroll. We're gonna be spending about 22.5 mil on our 13 position players. That leaves 32.5 for pitchers. We have so much cost controlled BP depth at the majors and in the minors our BP is also going to be real cheap. You then have two rotation spots locked up with Volstad and West, another should be with JJ. That then gives us ability to be looking at things like signing Nolasco or FAs or whatever.

 

oooOOOOOooohhhh! i like the sound of all of this. ps, i read frisario write that the team's gonna have a "mid range payroll" when they move to the new stadium. the middle of the pack payroll last season was 80mil. :mis2

 

I think we could see a payroll jump but 80 million is well out of the range that we will get to, at least for a while. I don't know what measure that middle of the pack payroll comes from, but it's still probably higher than what we will actually get.

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This is HUGE. 2012 is our new stadium, let's say we're rocking a 55 mil payroll. We're gonna be spending about 22.5 mil on our 13 position players. That leaves 32.5 for pitchers. We have so much cost controlled BP depth at the majors and in the minors our BP is also going to be real cheap. You then have two rotation spots locked up with Volstad and West, another should be with JJ. That then gives us ability to be looking at things like signing Nolasco or FAs or whatever.

 

oooOOOOOooohhhh! i like the sound of all of this. ps, i read frisario write that the team's gonna have a "mid range payroll" when they move to the new stadium. the middle of the pack payroll last season was 80mil. :mis2

 

I think we could see a payroll jump but 80 million is well out of the range that we will get to, at least for a while. I don't know what measure that middle of the pack payroll comes from, but it's still probably higher than what we will actually get.

 

i was going with there's 30 teams in the league and the 15th and 16th highest payrolls were $80mil.

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I must say our system is worryingly thin on SP prospects, compared to a few years ago.

 

 

Well, we also graduated two of them (Volstad and West). We also have several guys in the very low minors who have break out potential.

 

Like Schnellders said, it's about the hitting. Our 2012 line up will probably look something like

 

C-Baker

1B-Logan

2B-Coghlan

3B-Dominguez

SS-Hanley

RF-Stanton

CF-Maybin

LF-Petersen/Cousins/the next cody ross/ect, finding a competent LFer is one of the easiest things to do

 

only 2 of the above will be making over the minimum (Baker and Hanley), possibly 3 depending on LF.

 

This is HUGE. 2012 is our new stadium, let's say we're rocking a 55 mil payroll. We're gonna be spending about 22.5 mil on our 13 position players. That leaves 32.5 for pitchers. We have so much cost controlled BP depth at the majors and in the minors our BP is also going to be real cheap. You then have two rotation spots locked up with Volstad and West, another should be with JJ. That then gives us ability to be looking at things like signing Nolasco or FAs or whatever.

 

And that's also not including the fact we should be targeting pitching in the trades of Uggla, Cantu, Cody, ect.

 

I see them investing in hitting even with that above crazy depth (not including Skipworth, Smolinski, Galloway, G. Sanchez I may add) just because of their philosophy to not dish out the big money to pitchers. Looking at upcoming FA, they aren't going to give Matt Cain $100+ million, or Cliff that, or whatever. These guys are going to stick to their philosophy - develop your own pitching, sign an innings eater if you need it. They'll do something questionable, like give Carl Crawford a 7/$100 deal to play LF, and then sign Jon Garland or some other dude to be the 4th or 5th starter. I know it makes us both cringe, but can't you just see that happening?

 

And really, I'm totally cool with that if they SIGN JOHNSON FOR FOUR YEARS, and then trade/allow to walk with compensation - Uggla, Nolasco, Cantu, Ross, Nunez, Paulino, and Miller/Anibal if they continue not to work out. You'll get some pitching at some point from that.

 

C John Baker $2,000,000

1B Logan Morrison $430,000

2B Chris Coghlan $430,000

3B Matt Dominguez $420,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $15,000,000

LF “FREE AGENT� $12,000,000

RF Mike Stanton $410,000

CF Cameron Maybin $430,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $1,500,000

B Brett Hayes $420,000

B Scott Cousins $420,000

B Gaby Sanchez $430,000

B Bryan Petersen $420,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $12,000,000

SP Chris Volstad $3,000,000

SP Sean West $430,000

SP “IP EATER�/Miller $6,000,000

SP YOUNG GUY $410,000

RP Ryan Tucker $420,000

RP Jose Ceda $420,000

RP Chris Leroux $430,000

RP Jhan Marinez $410,000

RP Arquimedes Caminero $420,000 < - and endless quantity of Cishek, Parcell, Andrelczyk, etc

RP Dan Meyer $1,000,000

RP Dan Jennings $420,000

 

$59,670,000

 

I mean, we're including inflation here with CC costs, enormous contracts to Hanley, Johnson, and some super legit outfielder, etc. And the above isn't including Skipworth who may figure it out, or Smolinski turning into Coghlan 2.0, or the meteoric rise of a Hand, James, Berglund, Kaminska, or some other pitchers. This is all basically homegrown above, and a lot of it is easily interchangeable if someone doesn't work out. You probably get close to a dozen C+ or better prospects from trading those above guys too. Throwing that on top of this, could make this team stupid on paper. It could easily come WAY under budget if say they get a young starter for Uggla, another for Nolasco, and then Petersen/Cousins/Gaby work out so they don't need to throw money in the field. Maybe then, the money gets shifted to that ACE reliever we've both been talking about for 2 years and how that is eventually going to need to be addressed.

 

Anyways went off on a tangent, but yea. The basic point is longterm payroll looks outrageous as long as these guys can become average starting baseball players. Which is really the low projection for most of these guys. Pretty exciting. We just need to get through these next 2 years healthy and not have more set backs like Logan's wrist, or Miller forgetting how to pitch. We only need like 2/3rds of them to develop. I'm pretty optimistic that happens.

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The more I think the more I have to wonder about signing Ricky long term after this season, if he performs at at least a #2 level.

 

He'll be at four years of service time, so same as JJ this season. Like you say, we aint gonna be getting a #1-#2 on the FA market. I still view Volstad as a back of the rotation guy until he shows better K/BB numbers. West is likely around a #3. And I agree, some young guy #5. So if we have JJ #1, BLANK #2, West #3, Volstad #4, and Young Guy #5....we aint filling that #2 on the FA market. We're getting a mid-rotation guy at best (Penny, Smoltz, Pavano if the market stays the same), bottom rotation guy at worst (Garland).

 

I'm also sure we'd pick up some guy to be a closer, let's just say 5 mil there. And I think we'd be more in the 5-10 mil range for an OFer (Abreu, Damon, Dunn, ect) than a 12 mil guy, especially since someone making that much is gonna also probably gonna be getting a few years.

 

So, signing ricky for his 11-14 seasons. He's super 2 status and IP mean he's gonna be getting more in the arb years than JJ will, but I still imagine a low 40m contract.

 

Let's just say, for the sake of saying and I'm sure you can get better numbers: 6.5, 9.5, 13.5, 13.5 = 4 years/43 mil

 

So that's 8.5 in 12.

 

So just plugging directly into yours

 

C John Baker $2,000,000

1B Logan Morrison $430,000

2B Chris Coghlan $430,000

3B Matt Dominguez $420,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $15,000,000

LF “FREE AGENT� $7,000,000

RF Mike Stanton $410,000

CF Cameron Maybin $430,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $1,500,000

B Brett Hayes $420,000

B Scott Cousins $420,000

B Gaby Sanchez $430,000

B Bryan Petersen $420,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $12,000,000

SP Chris Volstad $3,000,000

SP Sean West $430,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $9,500,000

SP YOUNG GUY $410,000

RP "FA MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CLOSER" $5,000,000

RP Ryan Tucker $420,000

RP Jose Ceda $420,000

RP Chris Leroux $430,000

RP Jhan Marinez $410,000

RP Dan Meyer $1,000,000

RP Dan Jennings $420,000

 

62,750,000

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Assuming Nolasco is healthy, I don't think he'd take a 3 year contract a year away from free agency. It's going to be the same thing with Johnson now - guarantee that fourth. I think your years and numbers are about right hypothetically. Assuming he's healthy, performs, and he has figured it out where he's some cool Javy Vazquez-lite type pitcher. That kind of guy isn't getting Lackey money in FA (avg. $16), but he's getting more than Wolf (avg. $9). Considering arbitration year 6 will keep him to around... $7 even if he is totally awesome, I think around a 4/$43 is about right give or take $3 million or so.

 

That team above could be really special if everything works out. Even more so, even if it doesn't work out and let's say 2-3 major guys (let's say Morrison, Petersen, and West just to throw up some names) don't work out for whatever reason, that literally means on a $65 million payroll, the team would have at least $15 million to spend on 2-3 bats, a 5th starter, and 1-2 relievers. I mean, that's easy as sh*t if you can get Ryan Church for $1 million every year, Brad Penny will take an incentive $7-9 contract, you can find good LOOGYs easily for $2 million, etc.

 

The only real question is, are Johnson and Nolasco going to remain healthy? If the medical staff says it should be ok, I'm cool going for it.

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If Coghlan's not a major league 2B at this point in his career, he's definitely not going to be one 2-3 yrs from now.

 

Why not? It's about filling your needs. You don't think if we have multiple outfielders and noone to play 2B we won't put him back in the position he's played for 5 years?

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Coghlan was drafted as a 3B, then was moved to 2B as a project a couple of seasons ago. His defense has always been a huge question mark in the infield. He has the reputation as a butcher. That's why he's in LF.

 

 

Or because we had a space to fill in the OF when we called him up? Hanley, Uggla and Cantu are obviously the main guys in the IF, and at the time Coghlan came up, which was relatively early in the year, Bonifacio was the starter at 3B as the organisation felt he was a starter.

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Coghlan was drafted as a 3B, then was moved to 2B as a project a couple of seasons ago. His defense has always been a huge question mark in the infield. He has the reputation as a butcher. That's why he's in LF.

 

Coghlan was drafted a 3B and was moved to 2B at the end of the same year he was drafted because his power didn't project. His defense was thought of as subpar at 2B but most scouting reports said his defense had improved.

 

When he came up here we had Cantu at 1B, Uggla at 2B, Hanley at SS, and the FO's pet project of Emilio at 3B. There was a free spot in LF because of the demotion of the struggling Cameron Maybin.

 

That's why he's in LF.

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You don't move a player to the outfield who can field well enough to stay in the infield. You keep him in the minor leagues to develop. Coghlan would be exponentially more valuable as a 2B, and the 3-4 months he lost developing defensively at the position would not be worth risking, for an immediate patch job in LF. From all indication, the front office has little if any plans to move him back to 2B. I haven't read a single positive scouting report on his defense -- that's something you're going to need to provide a source for.

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