Derrek Lee will be worth less tomorrow to the Florida Marlins than he is today.

 

It's unfortunate but true. As the clock ticks away towards Dec 7th every GM in baseball knows the Fish are in a more disadvantageous position than they were a day earlier.

 

Working against the Fish is the fact that not only is Lee arbitration eligible this year, he is a free agent next year. Any GM who entertains the thought of trading for Lee knows (that after this off-season's arbitration process) he may be heading for free agency at the end of next season, which translates into offering the Fish minimal compensation for Derrek.

 

I post this reminder in hopes that we be more realistic in our expectations of the compensation we might receive for the guy. Spivey and (perhaps) a trio of prospects may sound lopsided in Arizona's favor but it is frankly more than we might get on Dec 6th. The same goes for Baltimore's speculated offer of Roberts/Hairston and some reconstructed arms. All of sudden a Admin Bigbie doesn't look so bad. (let's not get caught up in arguing the particular players I'm using them because they are the ones being mentioned.)

 

On the upside, Derrek is a class act with a set of skills virtually unmatched in the sport. But the twenty-nine other GMs in baseball are not about to overpay for players they have no control over, especially these days where most teams are looking to eliminate payroll and undo the contract excesses of the go-go nineties.

 

There's a school of thought that says we need to wait until the Castillo situation is resolved and normally it would be hard for me to disagree. But regardless of Castillo's future, Lee's market value is deteriorating quickly and Castillo's is not. Castillo is already a free agent, he is on the market and the Fish will either pony up to keep him or they won't. Trading Lee sooner rather than later takes $7.5-8 million off the books NOW, thus allowing the front office to make intelligent decisions regarding Lowell, Pudge and Castillo.

 

It would be great if the Marlins can land a quality starting player for Lee in the next couple of weeks but don't count on it. Messrs. Beinfest/Jennings/Hill and McKeon will do their best and get the most they can, but don't hold your breath expecting more than has been offered so far.

there are plenty of teams looking for a 1st Baseman, i dont think he will be worth less everyday unless 1B are snatched up like "that"

I agree with you and its going to be a sobering moment to get much less than his worth. We can only hope someone else signs Pudge so we have some freaking money as Lee is just hitting his prime.

its funny....

 

most DBacks fans were not pleased with what they were gonna give up for DLee

 

we shall see though

There are alot of teams out there who would love a 1B man like DLee. He's got the power and the defense on the bases and could pretty much fit in anywhere.

 

 

Can't really say how beneficial it would be for the Marlins to trade him away now, but hopefully management makes the right move and does what is best for him and this team right now.

What's right for the team right now as it relates to DLee, at least in my estimation, is to clear his $7.50 mil of payroll before the trading deadline so they can be buyers instead of sellers in the days leading up to the free agent deadline. They're going to have to fish or cut bait with Enc too soon. I'm sure they're trying to trade him as we speak but at some point Enc's value is nil. If you can clear Lee and and Enc you're looking at $13-15 million in arbitration awards/2004 payroll that are no longer your responsibility.

 

I say get him/them off the books now and take your chances. Not only are there free agents to be had, there's a significant number of final arbitration eligible (guys in the same boat as Enc and Lee who may just be released) and players with options to exercise, that are about to enter the market. In a soft market, only the strongest survive. Look at some of the players released so far. For all the debris there's also some fine baseball talent who are being let go with a $500k option rather than $3mil in payroll. That ex-$3mil talent may be very happy to sign for $2 next year knowing he at least have a job. The current player contract system benefits players in the good (economic) years and benefits the owners in bad, or so it seems. Perhaps this time ownership can get a better handle on their spending this time when things turn up.

 

It's inconceivable to me that Enc is tendered and I assume Lee won't be either if it came to that. The Marlins simply cannot keep that kind of payroll around right now. You can't while these obligations are still on the books, you can't say "let's not trade Lee until we know about Castillo" because the fact is you may not know for weeks more on Luis and by them Lee, Enc have just become free agents themselves. If I understand the sequene of events, the first week or so of December a decision is made on all players due arbitration followed a coupe of weeks later byt the free agent deadline. So a decision on Lee and Enc has to happen weeks before Castillo and Pudge.

 

Considering market conditions, here is the game being played between GMs, not just regarding DLee, but all GMs are on both sides of all kinds of potential deals right now.

 

The game now is "who's the best lowball guy".

 

Fair value is out the window.

 

The Marlins have to get their payroll obligations down to give added flexibility to the rest of their moves and everybody knows it. But at the same time they all know the strengths and weaknesses of everyone else.

 

The game used to be "my payroll's bigger than your payroll" and that led to the Hampton and Gonzalez contract era. What we're seeing now is the unwinding of those exceses. It helps us in acquiring talent, including Pudge and Luis and it hurts us in the case of Lee and to a lesser degree Encarnacion.

 

Now its who has the best $300-800k players who can be used for compensation. Major League ready prospects are coin of the realm. You bid the least you think it will take to get the deal done.

 

And everbody's doing it to everybody.

 

So let's get our deals done sooner rather than later. This team certainly has more than enough holes to fill. A Bigbie or a Patterson or a Roberts may have a variety of potential roles in the days ahead, from starter to fourth outfielder, from secondbaseman to infield utility guy, from starting pitcher to long relief. Or, since they're not arbitration eligible you can bundle them in another trade.

 

But get it done. Now.

again, i think we are ok until some more trades and signings occur...

 

as of right now, we are fine in the DLee category of getting players back

Being overlooked drastically is that the Marlins are not the only ones trying to achieve 'payroll flexibility'. That buzz word is on every MO of EVERY MLB organization. The teams that have money to spend, Yanks, O's, for example, may not be so inclined.

 

Lee's value wont go down. Why? Because Sexson's value is bringing up Lee's. The loser in the Sexson sweepstakes (I cant believe there is such a thing) will try for Lee. Dont think so? Look at all the suitors out there for Sexson right now. Fact is, Lee makes sense for a lot of teams - gone are the days of the 15-20MM yearly contracts, but the 6-8MM arent going anywhere. The money afforded Lee wont be too much for teams to take on. The pending free agency could be worked out before it gets to that point. The compensation, I agree, may not be as much as we would like for Lee - but you are not expecting, realistically, to get star for star match here. You look to deal Lee to a team with a need for Lee, and get back what you need - in our case, cheap young players.

 

We are caught, as are the other clubs, in a waiting pattern. No one wants to sign anyone BEFORE Dec. 7th because they dont want to lose draft picks. No one wants to make trades, and lose current players, because they could fill a void with a free agent. So that means that everything is frozen, generally speaking, unless some organization gets ballsy and decides to pay the price - but reap the rewards of making the first move. We cant trade Lee for a 2B if Castillo re-signs. We cant wait to trade Lee after Castillo declines and NOT get a 2B back. But in regards to the latter, if after Dec. 7th, we sign a FA - like Reese or Young.

 

Sure, the Marlins are in a tricky situation, but so is all the other clubs in baseball. I think we have more leverage than other clubs because we are a) World Champs and b) do not need all our free agents to return. We have capable replacements ready to step in. Pudge=Castro, Lee=Conine, Lowell=Cabrera, Castillo=Hooper/Medrano/Valdez/FA. The only one I feel that is imperative we re-sign, Lowell - and he is going to be here at least one more year anyway.