26 Saves, 7 Blown Saves

[Sirspud]

Leo Nunez now has the exact same numbers for saves that he did the year previously, when it's pretty well acknowledged that he really folded down the stretch. A lot of people here wanted to give him a pass because it was his first year in Florida, saying he wore out because of the heat. What is the excuse this year?

 

Leo Nunez is to closers what Hanley Ramirez is to defense at SS. They both can do nice things every once in a while, but they are at a position defined by doing great things consistently, not just every once in a while. How many blown saves is it gonna take for people on this board to realize that Leo is just not a bonafide closer? Some of us can see things in him that others can't, but it doesn't really matter what we see in him. In baseball, the numbers will almost always tell the story at the end of the day. The numbers say that Leo is just not very good compared to most players at his position.

 

Leo is not an entirely inept reliever, but he's much too inconsistent and too prone to confidence lapses to be the guy at the end of the line, where his performance doesn't measure up to the standards of the position.

[MrMarlinPride]

He's done fine until the past week.

[dim]

Leo should be a set up man. He'd be perfect in that role (just like he was in KC).

 

He's an average closer in the majors imo. Not great, but far from the worst.

 

Luckily for the Marlins, the one thing we are very deep in minor league talent is at the relief pitcher spot.

[Sirspud]

He's done fine until the past week.

 

 

You mean, except for that stretch where he blew 3 in two weeks. We've seen Leo Nunez exactly replicate his numbers two years in a row. That's a lot more indicative than small stretches where he was effective.

[MrMarlinPride]

Wouldn't mind Leo as the setup man.

We could use guys like Tucker,Ceda, Marinez as the closer. If anything we could go Clay.

[Sirspud]

Leo should be a set up man. He'd seem perfect in that role.

 

He's an average closer in the majors imo. Not great, but far from the worst.

 

Luckily for the Marlins, the one thing we are very deep in minor league talent is at the relief pitcher spot.

 

 

Far from the worst, but few of the guys who are worse at this point are really being sold as long-term options, they are merely filling the role until their team finds somebody to be the guy in 2011. Leo, on the other hand, was uncontested last off-season despite sub-par performance last year, and few fans here are even willing to admit that Leo should not be the man. Given how little care the Fo shows the pen, I doubt they bring in anyone to challenge him, though they could deal him.

[rgkeller]

Leo Nunez now has the exact same numbers for saves that he did the year previously, when it's pretty well acknowledged that he really folded down the stretch. A lot of people here wanted to give him a pass because it was his first year in Florida, saying he wore out because of the heat. What is the excuse this year?

 

Leo Nunez is to closers what Hanley Ramirez is to defense at SS. They both can do nice things every once in a while, but they are at a position defined by doing great things consistently, not just every once in a while. How many blown saves is it gonna take for people on this board to realize that Leo is just not a bonafide closer? Some of us can see things in him that others can't, but it doesn't really matter what we see in him. In baseball, the numbers will almost always tell the story at the end of the day. The numbers say that Leo is just not very good compared to most players at his position.

 

Leo is not an entirely inept reliever, but he's much too inconsistent and too prone to confidence lapses to be the guy at the end of the line, where his performance doesn't measure up to the standards of the position.

 

 

I agree.

 

Seventh or eighth inning guy.

[Sirspud]

Wouldn't mind Leo as the setup man.

We could use guys like Tucker,Ceda, Marinez as the closer. If anything we could go Clay.

 

 

Maybe longterm for the kids, but otherwise I don't think the closer for a successful Marlins team next year is on this roster. We may not be able to afford a different one, but I think closer is one of the many positions a successful Marlins team will have to get better at.

[MrMarlinPride]

Clay seems like he does in my opinion and I wouldn't mind watching him close.

[jmp]

Leo should be a set up man. He'd seem perfect in that role.

 

He's an average closer in the majors imo. Not great, but far from the worst.

 

Luckily for the Marlins, the one thing we are very deep in minor league talent is at the relief pitcher spot.

 

 

Far from the worst, but few of the guys who are worse at this point are really being sold as long-term options, they are merely filling the role until their team finds somebody to be the guy in 2011. Leo, on the other hand, was uncontested last off-season despite sub-par performance last year, and few fans here are even willing to admit that Leo should not be the man. Given how little care the Fo shows the pen, I doubt they bring in anyone to challenge him, though they could deal him.

 

So who has enough killer instinct in our pen to close games? Just curious...

 

Definitely Cinder or Fulgor. We also have Chief Thunder down in the AA.

[dim]

Right now Leo is and should still be our closer. Nobody else currently in the pen has the experience or the success Leo had from April-July.

 

I do however feel long term he's a set-up man.

[jmp]

Leo just needs to use his change up more efficiently, some times it's all he throws. You have a 95+ mph fastball, that's your out pitch, change up should only be there to keep hitters honest. I feel he likes his change up a little too much.

[Sirspud]

Leo just needs to use his change up more efficiently, some times it's all he throws. You have a 95+ mph fastball, that's your out pitch, change up should only be there to keep hitters honest. I feel he likes his change up a little too much.

 

 

We discussed this after the BS a couple nights ago. Leo's change-up has been evaluated very highly, and I don't doubt that it is a very good pitch and very hard to hit when used at the right time. But the one thing it isn't is a stand-alone pitch that will be effective without being properly set up. When Leo struggles, its his change-up (or his rarely-used slider) that seems to be getting hit a lot. Its possible that his fastball gets hit a higher percentage of the time (as the numbers indeed show), but if he throws his change-up too much, it is more hittable than the fastball, which is fairly hard to hit on its own.

 

His change-up can be an out pitch though. Just not when he uses it too much.

[MrMarlinPride]

You got it half right, he needs to use the changeup more efficiently and mix in the fastball way more often but the change is his out pitch.

The thing is when batters see a pitch like that 3 or 4 times in an AB they'll either A pick it up and rip it or B, lay off if its out of the zone.

He needs to start off with his slider as a show me pitch more often.

After that then switch it up to fastball, fastball changeup.

He has the stuff he just doesn't use it correctly.

[jmp]

Leo just needs to use his change up more efficiently, some times it's all he throws. You have a 95+ mph fastball, that's your out pitch, change up should only be there to keep hitters honest. I feel he likes his change up a little too much.

 

 

We discussed this after the BS a couple nights ago. Leo's change-up has been evaluated very highly, and I don't doubt that it is a very good pitch and very hard to hit when used at the right time. But the one thing it isn't is a stand-alone pitch that will be effective without being properly set up. When Leo struggles, its his change-up (or his rarely-used slider) that seems to be getting hit a lot. Its possible that his fastball gets hit a higher percentage of the time (as the numbers indeed show), but if he throws his change-up too much, it is more hittable than the fastball, which is fairly hard to hit on its own.

 

His change-up can be an out pitch though. Just not when he uses it too much.

 

Yeah I haven't seen the numbers on that, I will have to check them out. It's just seems that every time he has a 1-2 or an 0-2 count he is throwing a change up automatically.

[Entendu]

I've always maintained that he's a set up man for a very good bullpen. The only problem is that there's no one else in the bullpen better than he is. He's our closer until we find someone better.

[Erick]

Billy Wagner: 26 saves, 6 blown saves

Franscisco Rodriguez: 24 saves, 5 blown saves

 

Kevin Gregg: 25 saves, 4 blown saves

Matt Lindstrom: 22 saves, 5 blown saves

 

It's official, folks! Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom are just as good, if not better, than Billy Wagner and KRod. Put it on the board!

 

Saves/Blown saves = everything. Don't bother to actually interpret the stat, correctly.

[Erick]

Leo just needs to use his change up more efficiently, some times it's all he throws. You have a 95+ mph fastball, that's your out pitch, change up should only be there to keep hitters honest. I feel he likes his change up a little too much.

 

 

We discussed this after the BS a couple nights ago. Leo's change-up has been evaluated very highly, and I don't doubt that it is a very good pitch and very hard to hit when used at the right time. But the one thing it isn't is a stand-alone pitch that will be effective without being properly set up. When Leo struggles, its his change-up (or his rarely-used slider) that seems to be getting hit a lot. Its possible that his fastball gets hit a higher percentage of the time (as the numbers indeed show), but if he throws his change-up too much, it is more hittable than the fastball, which is fairly hard to hit on its own.

 

His change-up can be an out pitch though. Just not when he uses it too much.

 

 

His fastball got hit harder than his changeup tonight. As it usually does. His changeup is his best pitch; that's why he uses it so much. Furthermore, that's why Paulino calls for it so much. It's not as if he's constantly shaking off his catcher to throw his changeup because he has no confidence in his fastball. His changeup is just much better. The problem is that he's not locating it. He was lucky that Pujols didn't hit an upper deck HR on that 3-2 changeup he left hanging tonight, when Pujols fouled it back.

 

His key to success is the location of his changeup. He can throw it as many times as he wants. The pitch is that good. With the velocity of his changeup along with the movement, it often looks like a sinker when he's throwing it at 90 mph.

[Sirspud]

Billy Wagner: 26 saves, 6 blown saves

Franscisco Rodriguez: 24 saves, 5 blown saves

 

Kevin Gregg: 25 saves, 4 blown saves

Matt Lindstrom: 22 saves, 5 blown saves

 

It's official, folks! Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom are just as good, if not better, than Billy Wagner and KRod. Put it on the board!

 

Saves/Blown saves = everything. Don't bother to actually interpret the stat, correctly.

 

 

Yeah, we know this isn't true because of proven track records, which you're using to justify your point. This, of course, works perfectly, because we can look at Leo's long track record of success.

 

Oh wait. Leo doesn't have a track record of success as a closer.

 

And sorry, but blown saves are really everything as a closer. What other job is there than to not have a blown save and convert the save? To look pretty doing it? To throw a change-up that will excite bloggers, thereby increasing love of the game?

 

Give me a break, converting saves is his job and he is doing it poorly.

[Erick]

Billy Wagner: 26 saves, 6 blown saves

Franscisco Rodriguez: 24 saves, 5 blown saves

 

Kevin Gregg: 25 saves, 4 blown saves

Matt Lindstrom: 22 saves, 5 blown saves

 

It's official, folks! Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom are just as good, if not better, than Billy Wagner and KRod. Put it on the board!

 

Saves/Blown saves = everything. Don't bother to actually interpret the stat, correctly.

 

 

Yeah, we know this isn't true because of proven track records, which you're using to justify your point. This, of course, works perfectly, because we can look at Leo's long track record of success.

 

Oh wait. Leo doesn't have a track record of success as a closer.

 

And sorry, but blown saves are really everything as a closer. What other job is there than to not have a blown save and convert the save? To look pretty doing it? To throw a change-up that will excite bloggers, thereby increasing love of the game?

 

Give me a break, converting saves is his job and he is doing it poorly.

 

 

Fransisco Cordero has 30 saves and less blown saves than Leo this year, and Cordero has been horrible.

 

Bobby Jenks has 23 saves to only 3 blown this year, and he's been horrible.

 

Alfredo Simon only has 3 blown saves this year to his 16 saves; is he better than Leo?

 

Blown saves don't take into account what type of lead the closer has (1 run, 2 run, 3 run lead...that's why the stat is misleading), the caliber of hitters you're facing in each situation, the defense playing behind you (did you see Wagner's "blown save" last night?) and it also doesn't take into account the amount of times a "closer" is being taken out of the game, when he gets in trouble. Today, for example, Cordero was taken out with a 4-2 lead in the 9th with 1 out and the bases loaded, as he watched Nick Masset get the save. Cordero sucked, yet because he was taken out he didn't get a chance to get a blown save tacked on to his numbers.

 

It's not the most important statistic for closers; it's the most misleading when comparing closers.

[Erick]

By the way, it also doesn't take into account the amount of outs the closer is being asked to get. In that sense, there's nothing special about Leo Nunez because he's rarely asked to get more than 3 outs. But since you're just comparing closers and just using the save/blown save statistic to do so, that's not fair to a guy like Brian Wilson, who's constantly called upon to get more than 3 outs for a save.

 

Not all saves are created equal.

[Admin]

Edwin mentioned a possible switch at closer after the game, said they need to discuss it.

[BafflingBeerman]

Why does it always seem like at the end of year, we are switching out closers?

 

Heck, it even dates back to 2003 when Urbina came in and sorta took over for Looper.

[Erick]

Edwin mentioned a possible switch at closer after the game, said they need to discuss it.

 

 

 

I'm assuming Hensley would be next in line. Maybe Veras as a longshot.

[Sirspud]

Edwin mentioned a possible switch at closer after the game, said they need to discuss it.

 

 

It's good that they are discussing it, as it should be, but I need to clarify that the purpose of this thread is not to say that anybody else on this team should be closing. I honestly don't feel like there is a closer on this roster, much less a guy who would be much better than Leo. My criticisms of Leo are more because I don't think he is the guy long-term, and replacing him is one of the areas that this team should look at if it really expects a winner at some point.

 

Musical chairs for the end of the year isn't gonna really fix that much. It's just an area that needs more consideration in the offseason, as we've seen what Leo's tendencies are in this role and they just aren't good enough to build a winner around.