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The Definite Sabermetric Guide to Managing


mystikol87

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Great comeback.

I'm done with it. If you'd like to man up and admit you were overzealous and overconfident in your declarations, that's cool. If not, whatever.

 

Ok, ok, since you're using some sort of sabermetrics of your own to analyze what I said... here's an alternative to what I actually meant (as if it wasn't clear already):

 

Without knowing exactly what sort of formulas are being used to construct this "sabermetric optimized lineup", I don't believe that having your best hitter bat first or second would be better than batting him third. I need a bit more assurance than "they used math" to throw away a process that's been used for decades: two high OBP guys get on base for the best hitter and the cleanup guy. It makes the best logical sense, even if something else makes better mathematical sense, which isn't for certain.

 

Better?

 

Also, tell me this: going on the extremely bleak and general assumption that these people used math and they must be right, you'd be happy with this lineup?

 

1. Hanley

2. LoMo

3. Coghlan

4. Stanton

5. Gaby

6. Infante

7. Buck

8. 3B

9. Pitcher

 

(maybe swap Cogs and Gaby)

 

If you say no, it's no different than me disagreeing with what they said.

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The first hitter gets the most plate appearances/more chances. I think it's really that simple.

People make too much out of how the lineups are ordered. The bottom line is, if you have your best players hitting more often, you're likely to score some more runs, over the course of a full season.

 

And for what it's worth, Hanley was once the best leadoff hitter in baseball when he was there. He was much better hitting first than he's been hitting third, if you believe in that sort of thing.

 

Regarding Coghlan's .OBP, the reason why it went down last year was because his average went down. The reason his average went down was because his strikeouts went up...a lot. If he continues to strike out the way he did last year, he has no business hitting first because his .OBP won't end up being as good as it was once projected to be. His K:BB worsened greatly last year.

 

Also, the reason why they have the 5th best hitter hitting 3rd/3rd best hitter hitting 5th is probably because it allows for Stanton (slugging 4th hitter) to get better pitches to hit, and thus make a greater impact on the game with one swing of the bat, potentially.

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The first hitter gets the most plate appearances/more chances. I think it's really that simple.

People make too much out of how the lineups are ordered. The bottom line is, if you have your best players hitting more often, you're likely to score some more runs, over the course of a full season.

 

And for what it's worth, Hanley was once the best leadoff hitter in baseball when he was there. He was much better hitting first than he's been hitting third, if you believe in that sort of thing.

 

Regarding Coghlan's .OBP, the reason why it went down last year was because his average went down. The reason his average went down was because his strikeouts went up...a lot. If he continues to strike out the way he did last year, he has no business hitting first because his .OBP won't end up being as good as it was once projected to be. His K:BB worsened greatly last year.

 

Also, the reason why they have the 5th best hitter hitting 3rd/3rd best hitter hitting 5th is probably because it allows for Stanton (slugging 4th hitter) to get better pitches to hit, and thus make a greater impact on the game with one swing of the bat, potentially.

 

I see where you're coming from but it just seems to me like by putting your fifth best hitter third, you waste an out. Say the first two guys get on (which, if its Hanley and LoMo, they're bound to do), then instead of having a Hanley type hitter come up, you throw up Coghlan, he GIDPs. Stanton comes up and homers. That's two runs wasted Of course thats worse case scenario. Another not-so-bad one: he comes up and flies out, moves the runner to third. You still waste an out and a potential run.

 

I guess I'm looking at it more logically than statistically. Again, though, who knows what they used to come up with those conclusions? Again, I'm not saying they're wrong.

 

Now, I could kind of see this working for another team with some slightly better hitters like the Braves.

 

Something like:

 

Prado

Heyward

Uggla

McCann

Chipper

Freeman

McClouth

Gonzo

 

It doesn't look that bad with Uggla's power third. But three hitters now usually already have some sort of power so that would just be a play on the current system.

 

All in all, I think you have to take it by a team-by-team basis. I don't think this works for just any team and I don' think it would work for us.

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The first hitter gets the most plate appearances/more chances. I think it's really that simple.

People make too much out of how the lineups are ordered. The bottom line is, if you have your best players hitting more often, you're likely to score some more runs, over the course of a full season.

 

And for what it's worth, Hanley was once the best leadoff hitter in baseball when he was there. He was much better hitting first than he's been hitting third, if you believe in that sort of thing.

 

Regarding Coghlan's .OBP, the reason why it went down last year was because his average went down. The reason his average went down was because his strikeouts went up...a lot. If he continues to strike out the way he did last year, he has no business hitting first because his .OBP won't end up being as good as it was once projected to be. His K:BB worsened greatly last year.

 

Also, the reason why they have the 5th best hitter hitting 3rd/3rd best hitter hitting 5th is probably because it allows for Stanton (slugging 4th hitter) to get better pitches to hit, and thus make a greater impact on the game with one swing of the bat, potentially.

 

I see where you're coming from but it just seems to me like by putting your fifth best hitter third, you waste an out. Say the first two guys get on (which, if its Hanley and LoMo, they're bound to do), then instead of having a Hanley type hitter come up, you throw up Coghlan, he GIDPs. Stanton comes up and homers. That's two runs wasted Of course thats worse case scenario. Another not-so-bad one: he comes up and flies out, moves the runner to third. You still waste an out and a potential run.

 

I guess I'm looking at it more logically than statistically. Again, though, who knows what they used to come up with those conclusions? Again, I'm not saying they're wrong.

 

Now, I could kind of see this working for another team with some slightly better hitters like the Braves.

 

Something like:

 

Prado

Heyward

Uggla

McCann

Chipper

Freeman

McClouth

Gonzo

 

It doesn't look that bad with Uggla's power third. But three hitters now usually already have some sort of power so that would just be a play on the current system.

 

All in all, I think you have to take it by a team-by-team basis. I don't think this works for just any team and I don' think it would work for us.

 

 

If I'm not looking at it 100% sabermetrically, I wouldn't do this now because it puts too much pressure on 21-year old Mike Stanton to drive in runs. However, when Mike Stanton is ready to carry an offense much like Pujols has done over the course of his career, Adrian Gonzalez did last year for the Pads, etc., I think it's something worth considering.

 

Also, that wouldn't be the Braves lineup.

 

The Braves lineup would be:

1. Chipper/Heyward

2. Heyward/Chipper

3. Prado

4. McCann

5. Uggla

6. Freeman

7. Gonzo/McLouth

8. McLouth/Gonzo

 

Chipper hits in the first two spots because he's a great .OBP guy. This actually works even better because Chipper's lost power and is much more an on-base guy more than anything these days. Uggla's a better hitter than Prado, so he'd hit 5th and Prado would hit 3rd, under the given criteria.

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The first hitter gets the most plate appearances/more chances. I think it's really that simple.

People make too much out of how the lineups are ordered. The bottom line is, if you have your best players hitting more often, you're likely to score some more runs, over the course of a full season.

 

And for what it's worth, Hanley was once the best leadoff hitter in baseball when he was there. He was much better hitting first than he's been hitting third, if you believe in that sort of thing.

 

Regarding Coghlan's .OBP, the reason why it went down last year was because his average went down. The reason his average went down was because his strikeouts went up...a lot. If he continues to strike out the way he did last year, he has no business hitting first because his .OBP won't end up being as good as it was once projected to be. His K:BB worsened greatly last year.

 

Also, the reason why they have the 5th best hitter hitting 3rd/3rd best hitter hitting 5th is probably because it allows for Stanton (slugging 4th hitter) to get better pitches to hit, and thus make a greater impact on the game with one swing of the bat, potentially.

 

I see where you're coming from but it just seems to me like by putting your fifth best hitter third, you waste an out. Say the first two guys get on (which, if its Hanley and LoMo, they're bound to do), then instead of having a Hanley type hitter come up, you throw up Coghlan, he GIDPs. Stanton comes up and homers. That's two runs wasted Of course thats worse case scenario. Another not-so-bad one: he comes up and flies out, moves the runner to third. You still waste an out and a potential run.

 

I guess I'm looking at it more logically than statistically. Again, though, who knows what they used to come up with those conclusions? Again, I'm not saying they're wrong.

 

Now, I could kind of see this working for another team with some slightly better hitters like the Braves.

 

Something like:

 

Prado

Heyward

Uggla

McCann

Chipper

Freeman

McClouth

Gonzo

 

It doesn't look that bad with Uggla's power third. But three hitters now usually already have some sort of power so that would just be a play on the current system.

 

All in all, I think you have to take it by a team-by-team basis. I don't think this works for just any team and I don' think it would work for us.

 

 

If I'm not looking at 100% statistically, I wouldn't do this now because it puts too much pressure on 21-year old Mike Stanton to drive in runs. However, when Mike Stanton is ready to carry an offense much like Pujols has done over the course of his career, Adrian Gonzalez did last year for the Pads, etc., I think it's something worth considering.

 

Also, that wouldn't be the Braves lineup.

 

The Braves lineup would be:

1. Chipper/Heyward

2. Heyward/Chipper

3. Prado

4. McCann

5. Uggla

6. Freeman

7. Gonzo/McLouth

8. McLouth/Gonzo

 

Chipper hits in the first two spots because he's a great .OBP guy. This actually works even better because Chipper's lost power and is much more an on-base guy more than anything these days. Uggla's a better hitter than Prado, so he'd hit 5th and Prado would hit 3rd, under the given criteria.

I did that lineup by asking a pretty good Braves' fan's advice on it. But I guess you could be right. It looks worse the way you did it, to me, with Prado three hole.

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The first hitter gets the most plate appearances/more chances. I think it's really that simple.

People make too much out of how the lineups are ordered. The bottom line is, if you have your best players hitting more often, you're likely to score some more runs, over the course of a full season.

 

And for what it's worth, Hanley was once the best leadoff hitter in baseball when he was there. He was much better hitting first than he's been hitting third, if you believe in that sort of thing.

 

Regarding Coghlan's .OBP, the reason why it went down last year was because his average went down. The reason his average went down was because his strikeouts went up...a lot. If he continues to strike out the way he did last year, he has no business hitting first because his .OBP won't end up being as good as it was once projected to be. His K:BB worsened greatly last year.

 

Also, the reason why they have the 5th best hitter hitting 3rd/3rd best hitter hitting 5th is probably because it allows for Stanton (slugging 4th hitter) to get better pitches to hit, and thus make a greater impact on the game with one swing of the bat, potentially.

 

I see where you're coming from but it just seems to me like by putting your fifth best hitter third, you waste an out. Say the first two guys get on (which, if its Hanley and LoMo, they're bound to do), then instead of having a Hanley type hitter come up, you throw up Coghlan, he GIDPs. Stanton comes up and homers. That's two runs wasted Of course thats worse case scenario. Another not-so-bad one: he comes up and flies out, moves the runner to third. You still waste an out and a potential run.

 

I guess I'm looking at it more logically than statistically. Again, though, who knows what they used to come up with those conclusions? Again, I'm not saying they're wrong.

 

Now, I could kind of see this working for another team with some slightly better hitters like the Braves.

 

Something like:

 

Prado

Heyward

Uggla

McCann

Chipper

Freeman

McClouth

Gonzo

 

It doesn't look that bad with Uggla's power third. But three hitters now usually already have some sort of power so that would just be a play on the current system.

 

All in all, I think you have to take it by a team-by-team basis. I don't think this works for just any team and I don' think it would work for us.

 

 

If I'm not looking at 100% statistically, I wouldn't do this now because it puts too much pressure on 21-year old Mike Stanton to drive in runs. However, when Mike Stanton is ready to carry an offense much like Pujols has done over the course of his career, Adrian Gonzalez did last year for the Pads, etc., I think it's something worth considering.

 

Also, that wouldn't be the Braves lineup.

 

The Braves lineup would be:

1. Chipper/Heyward

2. Heyward/Chipper

3. Prado

4. McCann

5. Uggla

6. Freeman

7. Gonzo/McLouth

8. McLouth/Gonzo

 

Chipper hits in the first two spots because he's a great .OBP guy. This actually works even better because Chipper's lost power and is much more an on-base guy more than anything these days. Uggla's a better hitter than Prado, so he'd hit 5th and Prado would hit 3rd, under the given criteria.

I did that lineup by asking a pretty good Braves' fan's advice on it. But I guess you could be right. It looks worse the way you did it, to me, with Prado three hole.

 

If I did something wrong, it's that Uggla would hit 4th and McCann would hit 5th. Uggla's career .ISO is better than McCann's, so in terms of overall power, Uggla would win out and hit 4th. McCann, being a top three hitter on their team, would hit 5th and protect Uggla in the lineup.

 

But yeah, Chipper wouldn't hit 5th, at this point in his career, and taking the Braves entire lineup into consideration.

 

Prado's not even a top-3 .OBP guy on the Braves; he wouldn't hit in either of the first two spots in the lineup.

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DISCLAIMER: Yes, I know it's just a video game.

 

Ok, so just for fun, I simmed a season using the current lineup and proposed lineup with this formula on the most realistic simulation available to common folk, MLB 11 with injuries turned off. Here's what I got.

 

Current lineup:

 

80-82

 

Coghlan: .249/.310/.402 13 HR 61 RBI 99 K

Infante: .283/.332/.419 14 HR 53 RBI 81 K

Hanley: .292/.364/ .529 30 HR 91 RBI 94 K

Stanton: .261/.293/.470 30 HR 94 RBI 92 K

Morrison: .274/.345/.470 24 HR 72 RBI 93 K

Gaby: .252/ .334/.374/ 11 HR 50 RBI 93 K

Buck: .272/ .326/.439/ 19 HR 60 RBI 106 K

Dobbs: (426 AB) .254/.320/.376 13 HR 43 RBI 88 K

Murphy (182 AB) .275/.327/.423 3 HR 22 RBI 35 K

 

Proposed lineup:

 

74-88

 

Hanley: .300/.359/.542 28 HR 90 RBI 106 K

Morrison: .271/.342/.484 26 HR 84 RBI 104 K

Coghlan: .300/.371/.472 15 HR 64 RBI 93 K

Stanton: .244/.274/.520 45 HR 112 RBI 86 K

Gaby: .277/.342/.447 22 HR 83 RBI 81 K

Infante: .248/ .296/.356 9 HR 34 RBI 81 K

Buck: .230/.305/.346 10 HR 45 RBI 106 K

Dobbs (432 AB) : .241/.288/.370 11 HR 52 RBI 94 K

Murphy (187 AB) : .235/ .284/.342 4 HR 20 RBI 41 K

 

 

Again, this isn't evidence of my argument or opinion over anyone else's. Just thought it would be fun to do, compare, and share.

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DISCLAIMER: Yes, I know it's just a video game.

 

Ok, so just for fun, I simmed a season using the current lineup and proposed lineup with this formula on the most realistic simulation available to common folk, MLB 11 with injuries turned off. Here's what I got.

 

Current lineup:

 

80-82

 

Coghlan: .249/.310/.402 13 HR 61 RBI 99 K

Infante: .283/.332/.419 14 HR 53 RBI 81 K

Hanley: .292/.364/ .529 30 HR 91 RBI 94 K

Stanton: .261/.293/.470 30 HR 94 RBI 92 K

Morrison: .274/.345/.470 24 HR 72 RBI 93 K

Gaby: .252/ .334/.374/ 11 HR 50 RBI 93 K

Buck: .272/ .326/.439/ 19 HR 60 RBI 106 K

Dobbs: (426 AB) .254/.320/.376 13 HR 43 RBI 88 K

Murphy (182 AB) .275/.327/.423 3 HR 22 RBI 35 K

 

Proposed lineup:

 

74-88

 

Hanley: .300/.359/.542 28 HR 90 RBI 106 K

Morrison: .271/.342/.484 26 HR 84 RBI 104 K

Coghlan: .300/.371/.472 15 HR 64 RBI 93 K

Stanton: .244/.274/.520 45 HR 112 RBI 86 K

Gaby: .277/.342/.447 22 HR 83 RBI 81 K

Infante: .248/ .296/.356 9 HR 34 RBI 81 K

Buck: .230/.305/.346 10 HR 45 RBI 106 K

Dobbs (432 AB) : .241/.288/.370 11 HR 52 RBI 94 K

Murphy (187 AB) : .235/ .284/.342 4 HR 20 RBI 41 K

 

 

Again, this isn't evidence of my argument or opinion over anyone else's. Just thought it would be fun to do, compare, and share.

 

 

 

Obviously not, considering just about every single one of our players is ridiculously underrated, based on those stats. The game seems to think that Mike Stanton = John Buck, in terms of drawing walks. And, for some reason, John Buck actually has some really solid .OBP's, in comparison to his batting averages. He must have been intentionally walked a good dozen times per season. Lol.

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Just kind of skimming here, but the reason you don't want Coghlan-Morrison at the top is because most teams have at least one reliever who is dynamite vs. LHB, and stacking lefties like that can make it really easy to manage against you. Along the same lines, it limits your options on double switches, because you definitely can't put Cousins or Dobbs in at the pitcher's spot, or you're compounding the problem.

 

Part of constructing a lineup is to make things more difficult to strategize against. Stacking Morrison and Coghlan, despite their fine OBPs plays into your opponent's hand late in games. Don't discount that.

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I post under the screenname prinmemito and I've been trying to recover my password forever now, with no success. So, I got a new screenname.

 

So, anyway, here's my take. I am very very comfortable with statistics and I think it is very useful. However, the conclusions that statistics give you are only as good as how you framed the questions in the first place and your assumptions. In addition, I think people often over rely on statistics and fail to see obvious flaws in the conclusions.

 

Without seeing the exact results I have no idea how meaningful these results are. Did the regression explain 50% of the variation in runs scored, 75%, or 90%? There's a big difference between 50% and 90%. Were all of the results statistically significant? If so, how significant? In addition, if p

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The stats of what period (last year, last 3 years, etc.) do the sabermetricians use to rank the hitters in order to come up with their optimized lineup?

 

I'm not sure about this exact case but they usually go 3-years weighted. Standard 3-years weighted stats usually go 5/4/3; i.e.: (2010*5 + 2009*4 + 2008*3)/12.

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The rational for not having your best hitter 3rd, and rather having your two best hitters 2nd and fourth, is that the 3rd hitter comes up with 2 outs, nobody on a lot so it's not that good of a slot. Hitting second = more plate appearances (Though, and I could be wrong, I have a feeling this leans more towards an AL-thing where the 9th hitter is actually mlb-quality instead of being a pitcher. I'm not sure since I've never read The Book, which is where that line up construction comes from). Hitting fourth = either hitting with a man on base, or leading off an inning to get on base.

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Just kind of skimming here, but the reason you don't want Coghlan-Morrison at the top is because most teams have at least one reliever who is dynamite vs. LHB, and stacking lefties like that can make it really easy to manage against you. Along the same lines, it limits your options on double switches, because you definitely can't put Cousins or Dobbs in at the pitcher's spot, or you're compounding the problem.

 

Part of constructing a lineup is to make things more difficult to strategize against. Stacking Morrison and Coghlan, despite their fine OBPs plays into your opponent's hand late in games. Don't discount that.

 

 

strongly disagree because they both display no platoon split. just because a guy is a lefty doesn't mean he can't hit lhp

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Also, the opposing manager is going to want to go after them with a lefty either way if he can, so you can force him to go to the pen an extra time by splitting them up. That's not insignificant.

 

Also, Logan's got no OPS split, but that's fueled by a .450 BABIP. He's not hopeless against them, but he's definitely not the same hitter.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I am going to set this up in Diamond Mind and test it (2009 stats).

 

 

100 seasons of each the highest runs scored (801 on average) was this line up. This far out performs the 2009 team, but has the advantage of Nick Johnson all year, and Coghlan and Hermida's stats are averaged out rather than backloaded (since they both finished hot) - the healthy post-all star lineup scored 741 (with the same advantages over the actual 2009 team. Both went to the playoffs most of the time. The lineup below averaged 93 wins a year.

 

Johnson

Ramirez

Coghlan

Uggla

Ross

Cantu

Paulino / Baker

Hermida

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