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Reality Check Thread


gizmo

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I've been quietly enjoying the excitement of this offseason. It's been great to see what the Marlins have been attempting to do. I'm especially glad we got Reyes and Bell. I haven't had much opportunity to post much these days but I've been checking the site for the progress of the offseason whenever I can. Can't wait till baseball season arrives!

 

It was exciting,However... I think our dealing is over with...

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Been a great start to the offseason. I hope some pitching concerns can still be addressed. But it's the first time in a LONG time I've had something exciting to follow during the winter meetings. And like the original poster said we may not have got Pujols or Wilson but we got Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell which is an excellent haul and possibly a much smarter use of money then Pujols for 10yrs/$220M or Wilson for 6yrs/$80M. LOTS of reasons to be excited/happy for any Marlins fan!

 

 

For the 1st time in YEARS I have nothing bad to say about Loria. He did what he could and I applaud him for it. He was saved from himself when Pujols & Wilson chose the Angels. I understood why he did it, but he probably would have regretted it in a couple of years. We will be so much better off in the long run WITHOUT Pujols and Wilson.

 

So lets celebrate, and feel good about our team, and who knows they may not be done. Trades can and might happen between now and opening day.

 

I know now, that this team has a much better chance to win every game they play because of Mr Loria, and his team of Marlins execs, even including Samson.

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Our offense is not as good as any offense in the division if you actually go by statistics.

 

Which one is better? And please, use statistics.

 

Do your own homework.

 

MLB.com

The Marlins team OPS last year was .706. Phillies: .717; Mets: .725; Braves: .695; Washington: .691. So, we were in 3rd place last year.

 

The Marlins OPS from 3rd base last year was .662. Hanley is a constant, sin

 

Jose Reyes has an .877 OPS last year. If he plays 130 games batting leadoff, let's say that the other 30 games are played by someone with the same .662 OPS. That would come out to an .835 OPS overall at the position.

 

.835 - .662 = .173 OPS Increase over last year. Any one position get ~1/9th of a team's at bats and thus contributed to 1/9th of the OPS. Reyes should actually be worth a little more since he'll bat leadoff and have a few extra ABs, but let's keep it at 1/9th for simplicity's sake.

 

.173/9 = .019. So, if all other fluctuations in performance balance out, the addition of Jose Reyes should add .019 to the team's OPS. .706 + .019 = .725 OPS.

 

That would tie us with the Mets for the best OPS in the division, without any further acquisitions. And the Mets lost Reyes, so they clearly got worse. The Phillies haven't added anyone substantial, and they might lose Rollins. The Braves have been quiet, too. Same with the Nats, and they were well behind us anyway, last year.

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Our offense is not as good as any offense in the division if you actually go by statistics.

 

Which one is better? And please, use statistics.

 

Do your own homework.

 

MLB.com

The Marlins team OPS last year was .706. Phillies: .717; Mets: .725; Braves: .695; Washington: .691. So, we were in 3rd place last year.

 

The Marlins OPS from 3rd base last year was .662. Hanley is a constant, sin

 

Jose Reyes has an .877 OPS last year. If he plays 130 games batting leadoff, let's say that the other 30 games are played by someone with the same .662 OPS. That would come out to an .835 OPS overall at the position.

 

.835 - .662 = .173 OPS Increase over last year. Any one position get ~1/9th of a team's at bats and thus contributed to 1/9th of the OPS. Reyes should actually be worth a little more since he'll bat leadoff and have a few extra ABs, but let's keep it at 1/9th for simplicity's sake.

 

.173/9 = .019. So, if all other fluctuations in performance balance out, the addition of Jose Reyes should add .019 to the team's OPS. .706 + .019 = .725 OPS.

 

That would tie us with the Mets for the best OPS in the division, without any further acquisitions. And the Mets lost Reyes, so they clearly got worse. The Phillies haven't added anyone substantial, and they might lose Rollins. The Braves have been quiet, too. Same with the Nats, and they were well behind us anyway, last year.

 

Don't forget Ryan Howard will be out for some time. So, that could cause Philadelphia's OPS to drop some.

 

When you look over the lineups for every team in our division, I would take ours over anyone in our division. I think we have the best offense. And that's with Hanley being 2010 Hanley instead of 2007-2009 Hanley.

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Our offense is not as good as any offense in the division if you actually go by statistics.

 

Which one is better? And please, use statistics.

 

Do your own homework.

 

MLB.com

The Marlins team OPS last year was .706. Phillies: .717; Mets: .725; Braves: .695; Washington: .691. So, we were in 3rd place last year.

 

The Marlins OPS from 3rd base last year was .662. Hanley is a constant, sin

 

Jose Reyes has an .877 OPS last year. If he plays 130 games batting leadoff, let's say that the other 30 games are played by someone with the same .662 OPS. That would come out to an .835 OPS overall at the position.

 

.835 - .662 = .173 OPS Increase over last year. Any one position get ~1/9th of a team's at bats and thus contributed to 1/9th of the OPS. Reyes should actually be worth a little more since he'll bat leadoff and have a few extra ABs, but let's keep it at 1/9th for simplicity's sake.

 

.173/9 = .019. So, if all other fluctuations in performance balance out, the addition of Jose Reyes should add .019 to the team's OPS. .706 + .019 = .725 OPS.

 

That would tie us with the Mets for the best OPS in the division, without any further acquisitions. And the Mets lost Reyes, so they clearly got worse. The Phillies haven't added anyone substantial, and they might lose Rollins. The Braves have been quiet, too. Same with the Nats, and they were well behind us anyway, last year.

 

That also doesn't take into account Hanley coming back, plus Morrison and Stanton improving which should be inevitable...

 

Off topic, besides Hanley coming back LoMo is going to be the biggest peice of this lineup next year IMO. His rookie year the question marks were never can he hit for average or get on base, it was will the power come around. Last year, the average suffered and the power came. Judging by everything he has done at the plate at every level, I don't think he's going to be a .260 career hitter for long... If/when he combines average with power, which could certainly be this season, he will be a dangerous hitter. Again, I think that time is now.

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