Marlins interested in re-signing Dobbs

[Admin]

I think it's unrealistic to expect Coghlan to hit .320 again.

 

"Unrealistic" is an understatement. He could BABIP .320, but anything around .400 is simply unsustainable and not repeatable. Interestingly, his first half performance in 2009 isn't that much different from his 2010-2011 numbers.

[mystikol87]

I don't want him anywhere near LF as a starter. He'll probably be too expensive in 2 years to replace Infante. I just don't see a place for him.

[Admin]

I don't want him anywhere near LF as a starter. He'll probably be too expensive in 2 years to replace Infante. I just don't see a place for him.

 

I was so glad when he didn't maker super-2 status. The Marlins did the right thing in sending him down.

 

The only shot I'd give him at this point as a starter is if/when Hanley/Reyes is hurt and Bonifacio has to move to the infield.

[Wild Card]

I understand Coghlan hitting .320 is unrealistic, but even if he puts up his career slash line of .283/.350/.414 which I think IS realisitic, he is still a pretty productive left-handed bat. I just don't get why everyone puts this guy down... He put up these numbers all through the minors, came up and did the same exact thing, and for some reason nobody thinks he can have that success again. It's not like he was some inconsistent free swinger, this is a kid who's K/BB ratio was almost even at every level he played, he works counts and gets on base. You don't just lose that ability, just like LoMo won't be a .250 hitter forever, either.

[Admin]

I don't really see the logic in using his career numbers as a baseline. They are tainted by the unsustainable performance he had for most of 2009. He just isn't that player anymore. A lot of that was luck and he simply hasn't been able to make the adjustments against MLB pitchers since then.

 

If you are looking for a baseline, I'd suggesting taking his 2010-2011 numbers and factor in a little upside. That's basically a low .700s (.710-.720ish) OPS player. Not really that valuable with the terrible defense he plays.

[Wild Card]

I don't really see the logic in using his career numbers as a baseline. They are tainted by the unsustainable performance he had for most of 2009. He just isn't that player anymore. A lot of that was luck and he simply hasn't been able to make the adjustments against MLB pitchers since then.

 

If you are looking for a baseline, I'd suggesting taking his 2010-2011 numbers and factor in a little upside. That's basically a low .700s (.710-.720ish) OPS player. Not really that valuable with the terrible defense he plays.

 

 

The thing is, you can't just throw away his 2009 season like it never happened. It DID happen, and those ARE his career numbers. Who are you to say in 2012 he doesn't have 250 ab's where he is average, and another 250 where he goes on a tear? Because he certainly has the ability to get in a zone and hit the ball. It's just as likely for him to find a groove as it is for him to fall on his face, that's what I get out of his career at this point. In '10 and '11 he never really had an opportunity to get into a groove with the inconsistent playing time he got. I don't really think you're giving him a fair trial here.

[Admin]

I'm not saying it didn't happen. I'm saying that those numbers aren't a good baseline because they include a stretch of play that is anomalous and won't be repeated. There's really no justification for assuming that his current career line reflects the type of player he is. You need to scrutinize the data and take trends and anomalies into account. The drastic decline in performance from 2009 to 2010 and continued through 2011 needs to be considered. The BABIP figure paints a pretty clear picture as to why 2009 numbers aren't in the cards anymore.

 

Also, you make it sound like he was sitting on the bench most of the time in 2010-2011 and getting sporadic starts. That really isn't true. He didn't get a full season's worth of ABs in both cases, but he was in the line-up nearly everyday when he was playing. So I don't really buy the "he couldn't get into his groove" argument, either.

[Wild Card]

I'm not saying it didn't happen. I'm saying that those numbers aren't a good baseline because they include a stretch of play that is anomalous and won't be repeated. There's really no justification for assuming that his current career line reflects the type of player he is. You need to scrutinize the data and take trends and anomalies into account. The drastic decline in performance from 2009 to 2010 and continued through 2011 needs to be considered. The BABIP figure paints a pretty clear picture as to why 2009 numbers aren't in the cards anymore.

 

Also, you make it sound like he was sitting on the bench most of the time in 2010-2011 and getting sporadic starts. That really isn't true. He didn't get a full season's worth of ABs in both cases, but he was in the line-up nearly everyday when he was playing. So I don't really buy the "he couldn't get into his groove" argument, either.

 

 

You can consider the decline in performance to be a trend that continues because his ROY year was "anomalous and won't be repeated", while I could argue that his last two years have been marred with injuries and inconsistent playing time. I think they're both decent arguements. But considering the fact that he just continues to gain major league experience, I think the arguement can be made that he could certainly rebound.

 

Again, nothing in his professional career (while playing a full season with consistent ab's) suggests that he is the below-average player you're making him out to be. He performed at a high level, and consistently, throughout the minors and translated that directly into MLB right away. I guess I am just optimistic, and I really hope I'm right. His Avg/OBP and BB/K ratio was consistently awesome throughout his college and professional career, and all the sudden he just decided to start swinging at everything? I just don't buy it. But maybe he's the next Hermida and I'm way off. Who knows?

[AeroFishOne]

I'm not saying it didn't happen. I'm saying that those numbers aren't a good baseline because they include a stretch of play that is anomalous and won't be repeated. There's really no justification for assuming that his current career line reflects the type of player he is. You need to scrutinize the data and take trends and anomalies into account. The drastic decline in performance from 2009 to 2010 and continued through 2011 needs to be considered. The BABIP figure paints a pretty clear picture as to why 2009 numbers aren't in the cards anymore.

 

Also, you make it sound like he was sitting on the bench most of the time in 2010-2011 and getting sporadic starts. That really isn't true. He didn't get a full season's worth of ABs in both cases, but he was in the line-up nearly everyday when he was playing. So I don't really buy the "he couldn't get into his groove" argument, either.

 

 

You can consider the decline in performance to be a trend that continues because his ROY year was "anomalous and won't be repeated", while I could argue that his last two years have been marred with injuries and inconsistent playing time. I think they're both decent arguements. But considering the fact that he just continues to gain major league experience, I think the arguement can be made that he could certainly rebound.

 

Again, nothing in his professional career (while playing a full season with consistent ab's) suggests that he is the below-average player you're making him out to be. He performed at a high level, and consistently, throughout the minors and translated that directly into MLB right away. I guess I am just optimistic, and I really hope I'm right. His Avg/OBP and BB/K ratio was consistently awesome throughout his college and professional career, and all the sudden he just decided to start swinging at everything? I just don't buy it. But maybe he's the next Hermida and I'm way off. Who knows?

 

I agree with you wild card. It's too early to say he will or will not continue what he did in the minors and his rookie year. It's unfair to criticize performace when he has been injured the past two years. People have been quick to give up in him for some reason.I could see us packaging him in a deal before he end of the season on that note. He is a gamble piece for sure but his upside and potential to return to 09 form might have some teams happy if he's moved as a lower piece in a deal.

[Admin]

How was his playing time inconsistent when he was in the line-up almost everyday when he was at the big league level?

 

Do you understand what BABIP entails and what a .406 BABIP signifies? That essentially shows that what he did in the second half of 2009 is something that he can't achieve again. He's not going to "rebound" to hitting .320.

 

Again, nothing in his professional career (while playing a full season with consistent ab's) suggests that he is the below-average player you're making him out to be.

 

His 2010-2011 numbers, which weren't inflated by an anomalous BABIP, do suggest this.

 

And players frequently don't live up to their college and minor league numbers, so they shouldn't be considered an indicator of anything.

[Admin]

I wish that the people "hoping" and thinking that he has the potential to put up numbers like those in 2009 again would at least acknowledge his BABIP for that year.

[Erick]

I understand Coghlan hitting .320 is unrealistic, but even if he puts up his career slash line of .283/.350/.414 which I think IS realisitic, he is still a pretty productive left-handed bat. I just don't get why everyone puts this guy down... He put up these numbers all through the minors, came up and did the same exact thing, and for some reason nobody thinks he can have that success again. It's not like he was some inconsistent free swinger, this is a kid who's K/BB ratio was almost even at every level he played, he works counts and gets on base. You don't just lose that ability, just like LoMo won't be a .250 hitter forever, either.

 

Even if he does that, he's not better than Gaby.

[AeroFishOne]

I wish that the people "hoping" and thinking that he has the potential to put up numbers like those in 2009 again would at least acknowledge his BABIP for that year.

 

 

Ok so he has an inflated BABIP for 09 and was hitting .321. 09 has more probable then not chance of being a fluke but sitting there and saying "players frequently don't live up to their college and minor league numbers, so they shouldn't be considered an indicator of anything" when he came out and hit major league hitters seems counterproductive to your point. I wasnt completely upset by his 2010 numbers because its normal to expect a slump in the second year. In 2011 he had a horrible year, but anyone could argue injuries were the main factor that contributed to his poor performance.

 

Which goes back to the main question i want to ask you. Even if he comes back and hits .283/.350/.414, is that going to mean anything to you?

 

He may be a damn bust but im arguing there are more positive points than negative points suggesting that he can come back and be a strong player, ignoring the injuries. Maybe not 09 but a mix between 09 and 10 is not out of the question.

 

Edit: I liked wild cards stat line better than my question,

[Admin]

saying "players frequently don't live up to their college and minor league numbers, so they shouldn't be considered an indicator of anything" when he came out and hit major league hitters seems counterproductive to your point.

 

How so?

 

In 2011 he had a horrible year, but anyone could argue injuries were the main factor that contributed to his poor performance.

 

I'm not so sure. He didn't say a peep about injuries until the Marlins sent him down and were putting his super-2 status in jeopardy (less money for him). The extent to which injuries contributed to his poor 2011 season cannot be known for sure.

 

Which goes back to the main question i want to ask you. Even if he comes back and hits .283/.350/.414, is that going to mean anything to you?

 

I'm not even sure what you are trying to insinuate there; that's a pretty abstract thing to ask.

 

He may be a damn bust but im arguing there are more positive points than negative points suggesting that he can come back and be a strong player, ignoring the injuries.

 

I'm not trying to be a smart ass, but what are they? His minor league numbers? MILB numbers are not to be ignored, but when a player starts accruing more and more PAs at the big league level, they become more and more irrelevant.

[AeroFishOne]

saying "players frequently don't live up to their college and minor league numbers, so they shouldn't be considered an indicator of anything" when he came out and hit major league hitters seems counterproductive to your point.

 

How so?

 

In 2011 he had a horrible year, but anyone could argue injuries were the main factor that contributed to his poor performance.

 

I'm not so sure. He didn't say a peep about injuries until the Marlins sent him down and were putting his super-2 status in jeopardy (less money for him). The extent to which injuries contributed to his poor 2011 season cannot be known for sure.

 

Which goes back to the main question i want to ask you. Even if he comes back and hits .283/.350/.414, is that going to mean anything to you?

 

I'm not even sure what you are trying to insinuate there; that's a pretty abstract thing to ask.

 

He may be a damn bust but im arguing there are more positive points than negative points suggesting that he can come back and be a strong player, ignoring the injuries.

 

I'm not trying to be a smart ass, but what are they? His minor league numbers? MILB numbers are not to be ignored, but when a player starts accruing more and more PAs at the big league level, they become more and more irrelevant.

 

I'll also take this point by point.

 

1. Because he came out and hit major league hitting in 09 and batted .268 in 2010.

 

2. He had shoulder problems in spring training that we're publicized and the knee problem could go both ways. It could have been for money but it could also be that he was trying battle through on going pain. It wouldn't be the first time in pro sports for both.

 

3. Are you satisfied with those numbers? Taking into account Batting only and not defensively since that's what are main contention is.

 

4. Considering how our arguments in the past there is no real reason to continue on because I feel it will mean nothing in the end, but I will anyway.

 

He's had good minor league numbers that carried over to his first and I would argue second year of the majors, even though the 2010 numbers were much lower but hitting .268 with a Obp around .335,

I don't see his defense in left field atleast, as terrible like you put it compared to the in system alternatives and I didn't have a problem with his defense as a first year centerfielder either.

 

When it comes to Coghlan, you use only definative words to describe what will happen in the future like "won't" "and "can't" and call 09 luck when you have absolutely know idea what the future holds. You can't predict any more than the rest of us what will happen so to use words like that to shoot down others point's like you have done with Wild Card's is short sighted.

 

Wild card has made good points and I'm tired of repeating them already and many of them I havent. I don't agree with the way Wild Card used inconsistent playing time. I think he was going more along the lines of injuries being the main reason for the inconsistent playing time and not becuase of being benched. As Wild Card and I have stated, it is completely plausible that he will be a bust. We are leaving it open where you are shutting the door and seemingly refusing to accept anything else but his failure. Like I said there's no way to tell.

 

My final thought is he will ultimately be traded at some point. I don't see him having a starting position on the team next year but I'm not sold on Boni being able to put up the numbers he put up last year so it would be nice having an alternative in case he can't sustain it.

 

This is a long post to type from a phone.

[Admin]

1. Because he came out and hit major league hitting in 09 and batted .268 in 2010.

 

And those 2009 numbers were inflated by an abnormally high BABIP as we already established. So what?

 

2. He had shoulder problems in spring training that we're publicized and the knee problem could go both ways. It could have been for money but it could also be that he was trying battle through on going pain. It wouldn't be the first time in pro sports for both.

 

I'd be willing to give him some benefit of the doubt on account of the injuries, but you can't substantiate your previous claim that the injuries were "the main factor" for his poor performance. You simply don't know that.

 

3. Are you satisfied with those numbers?

 

Not with his defense. That doesn't make a really valuable player. I'd like to see him maintain an OPS over .800 with his defense (unless his defense improves considerably).

 

I don't see his defense in left field atleast as terrible like you put it compared to the in system alternatives and I didn't have a problem with his defense as a first year centerfielder either.

 

Statistically, he was one of the worst CF in baseball last year. Sampling size was pretty small, but my eyes match what the numbers say. He's a butcher out there.

[Admin]

When it comes to Coghlan, you use only definative words to describe what will happen in the future like "won't" "and "can't" and call 09 luck when you have absolutely know idea what the future holds. You can't predict any more than the rest of us what will happen so to use words like that to shoot down others point's like you have done with Wild Card's is short sighted.

 

That's really only in the context of him repeating his 2009 numbers based on BABIP. I'm going by what the numbers say.

 

And at least I'm trying to make my evaluation with statistical backing. Perhaps that makes me the "responsible" one.

 

Wild card has made good points and I'm tired of repeatinng them already. I don't agree with the way Wild Card used inconsistent playing time. I think he was going more along the lines of injuries being the main reason for the inconsistent playing time and not becuase of being benched. As Wild Card and I have stated, it is completely plausible that he will be a bust. We are leaving it open where you are shutting the door and seemingly refusing to accept anything else but his failure. Like I said there's no way to tell.

 

And I addressed all of those points. I'm really only adamant about those 2009 numbers not being repeated. That's why I think it's uniformed to use the career numbers as a projection, which is the main complaint I've been making in this thread.

 

I'm projecting basically a .720 bat. If he's a .764 bat, I'm not that far off.

[AeroFishOne]

1. Because he came out and hit major league hitting in 09 and batted .268 in 2010.

 

And those 2009 numbers were inflated by an abnormally high BABIP as we already established. So what?

 

2. He had shoulder problems in spring training that we're publicized and the knee problem could go both ways. It could have been for money but it could also be that he was trying battle through on going pain. It wouldn't be the first time in pro sports for both.

 

I'd be willing to give him some benefit of the doubt on account of the injuries, but you can't substantiate your previous claim that the injuries were "the main factor" for his poor performance. You simply don't know that.

 

3. Are you satisfied with those numbers?

 

Not with his defense. That doesn't make a really valuable player. I'd like to see him maintain an OPS over .800 with his defense (unless his defense improves considerably).

 

I don't see his defense in left field atleast as terrible like you put it compared to the in system alternatives and I didn't have a problem with his defense as a first year centerfielder either.

 

Statistically, he was one of the worst CF in baseball last year. Sampling size was pretty small, but my eyes match what the numbers say. He's a butcher out there.

 

But he still hit the ball. He swung and made contact with the ball. From what I recall he still made good hard contact with the ball in 2010 but most went straight to a guy but he still batted .268 which was right around Gabys number I believe.

 

2) go back and read what I wrote. I said that anyone could argue that injuries were the main factor that contributed to his poor performance. I didnt say I think injuries contributed to his poor performance and I didn't try to argue it. it's a very possible Idea though considering he dropped from .268 in 2010 to what, .230 ? We don't know if that's the real reason and wont know until he's healthy and plays a full year again.

 

3) I edited it after to make it a little more clear what I was asking but I think you summed It up batting wise anyway.

 

4) may have been one of the worst but as a first year outfielder I thought he made some good plays and could have turned it around with a full year out there. He had a shortened spring training and season which you noted.

But going back to his left field D I thought he did well.

[AeroFishOne]

When it comes to Coghlan, you use only definative words to describe what will happen in the future like "won't" "and "can't" and call 09 luck when you have absolutely know idea what the future holds. You can't predict any more than the rest of us what will happen so to use words like that to shoot down others point's like you have done with Wild Card's is short sighted.

 

That's really only in the context of him repeating his 2009 numbers based on BABIP. I'm going by what the numbers say.

 

And at least I'm trying to make my evaluation with statistical backing. Perhaps that makes me the "responsible" one.

 

Wild card has made good points and I'm tired of repeatinng them already. I don't agree with the way Wild Card used inconsistent playing time. I think he was going more along the lines of injuries being the main reason for the inconsistent playing time and not becuase of being benched. As Wild Card and I have stated, it is completely plausible that he will be a bust. We are leaving it open where you are shutting the door and seemingly refusing to accept anything else but his failure. Like I said there's no way to tell.

 

And I addressed all of those points. I'm really only adamant about those 2009 numbers not being repeated. That's why I think it's uniformed to use the career numbers as a projection, which is the main complaint I've been making in this thread.

 

I'm projecting basically a .720 bat. If he's a .764 bat, I'm not that far off.

 

Im pretty sure Wild Card was using stats back up his points and so did I, although not to yours and his extent. You shot down minor league numbers, he brought uP coghlans k to walk ratio. Seems like you are only try using the numbers that suit your point. It all goes back on what you value more and the long debated argument of stats vs eyes.

 

And I'm right there with you that the 09 numbers wont be repeated. I don't see him doing that again either but nothing is competely out of the question.

[Admin]

But he still hit the ball. He swung and made contact with the ball. From what I recall he still made good hard contact with the ball in 2010 but most went straight to a guy but he still batted .268 which was right around Gabys number I believe.

 

His contact rate has pretty much stayed the same over the last two seasons and his LD% actually went up in 2009. That shows how much luck can factor in over the course of less than a season (he played in only 128 games in 2009).

 

And batting average means nothing. Gaby's OPS is higher and he's a much better defender.

 

2) go back and read what I wrote. I said that anyone could argue that injuries were the main factor that contributed to his poor performance. I didnt say I think injuries contributed to his poor performance and I didn't try to argue it. it's a very possible Idea though considering he dropped from .268 in 2010 to what, .230 ? We don't know if that's the real reason and wont know until he's healthy and plays a full year again.

 

It still reads to me like you were using injuries as an excuse. If I'm wrong, then my apologies.

 

3) I edited it after to make it a little more clear what I was asking but I think you summed It up batting wise anyway.

 

To add to this--why would we ever only take one aspect of the game (offense) into account? Coghlan's Terrible (with a capital T) defense limits his overall value, which is all that matters.

 

4) may have been one of the worst but as a first year outfielder I thought he made some good plays and could have turned it around with a full year out there. He had a shortened spring training and season which you noted.

But going back to his left field D I thought he did well.

 

I think you will find yourself in the minority in saying he's been a good defensive outfielder.

[Erick]

If the best thing you can say about Coghlan is that you're hoping for a .760ish .OPS, I say whatever.

And that's if he even puts up those #'s.

 

Coghlan's main problem is that he has no position and his bat isn't good enough to compensate that fact.

[Admin]

Im pretty sure Wild Card was using stats back up his points and so did I, although not to yours and his extent. You shot down minor league numbers, he brought uP coghlans k to walk ratio. Seems like you are only try using the numbers that suit your point. It all goes back on what you value more and the long debated argument of stats vs eyes.

 

And I'm right there with you that the 09 numbers wont be repeated. I don't see him doing that again either but nothing is competely out of the question.

 

You guys are just using his minor and major career numbers and basically saying "this is what he's done" and implying this is the player he is. I think that's uninformed, because as I've said repeatedly, there are some severe anomalies with those 2009 numbers that are basically statistical outliers.

 

You guys are basically keeping the outliers intact, not questioning them, which is what I feel is not the best use of statistics.

[Admin]

If the best thing you can say about Coghlan is that you're hoping for a .760ish .OPS, I say whatever.

And that's if he even puts up those #'s.

 

Coghlan's main problem is that he has no position and his bat isn't good enough to compensate that fact.

 

Which is pretty much all I've been saying in this tread. His career numbers are probably his ceiling, but I'd project something lower (along with bad defense).

 

That pretty much tells me that he will never be a valuable contributor for the organization down the road as a starter.

[AeroFishOne]

But he still hit the ball. He swung and made contact with the ball. From what I recall he still made good hard contact with the ball in 2010 but most went straight to a guy but he still batted .268 which was right around Gabys number I believe.

 

His contact rate has pretty much stayed the same over the last two seasons and his LD% actually went up in 2009. That shows how much luck can factor in over the course of less than a season (he played in only 128 games in 2009).

 

And batting average means nothing. Gaby's OPS is higher and he's a much better defender.

 

2) go back and read what I wrote. I said that anyone could argue that injuries were the main factor that contributed to his poor performance. I didnt say I think injuries contributed to his poor performance and I didn't try to argue it. it's a very possible Idea though considering he dropped from .268 in 2010 to what, .230 ? We don't know if that's the real reason and wont know until he's healthy and plays a full year again.

 

It still reads to me like you were using injuries as an excuse. If I'm wrong, then my apologies.

 

3) I edited it after to make it a little more clear what I was asking but I think you summed It up batting wise anyway.

 

To add to this--why would we ever only take one aspect of the game (offense) into account? Coghlan's Terrible (with a capital T) defense limits his overall value, which is all that matters.

 

4) may have been one of the worst but as a first year outfielder I thought he made some good plays and could have turned it around with a full year out there. He had a shortened spring training and season which you noted.

But going back to his left field D I thought he did well.

 

I think you will find yourself in the minority in saying he's been a good defensive outfielder.

 

1) I brought Gaby up because his batting numbers were close to Cogs.

 

3) I'm only focusing on the batting becuase at the time that was the only stats we were arguing really. Why can't they be separated for that moment. Of course defense matters but were talking about Coghlans offense. That can be separated for this debate.

 

4) I may be. Lomo certainly has t been much better in left than Coghlan

[Admin]

So defense aside, I'm assuming that we can both agree that Gaby's been better offensively, right?

 

Also, while Logan is not a good defender in LF, he at least has a real position that he can be moved to and put up at least average defense. Coghlan doesn't really have that. Yeah, he came up mostly as an infielder, but he's been regarded as a butcher there too. If you are going to play poor defense, you need a pretty awesome bat to make up for it. That's why Jorge Cantu was railed on so heavily by this board when he stopped hitting.

 

Coghlan faces an uphill battle in being an everyday starter. Even if he puts the injuries aside (who knows if that will happen), he needs to hit his weight to make up for the defense. That's why I'm so down on the guy.